Yesterday, I went through the AL to determine who the MVP is through the end of April, today is the national league's turn. It pits the top 10 players by WAR as measured through baseball-reference.com through yesterday (4/29/14) and is a best of five based on:
All information, stats, numbers referenced below found on baseball-reference.com
Whose team is in better position to make the post season
Who has the higher ERA+/OPS+
What is the difference in WAR between them and the next best pitcher or hitter (based on player's position) on their team
Who has the highest defensive WAR (if two pitchers, nobody gets a point if a batter is pitted against a pitcher point goes to the batter
To account for media bias, which player has the highest profile or which of the two players is disliked the least.
PLAY IN ROUND:
(7) Chase Utley vs. (10) Andrew McCutchen
Neither player's team is great but the Phillies are in better post-season position (1-0 Utley)
Utley has the higher OPS+, currently holding a 172-162 advantage (2-0 Utley)
McCutchen has a 0.8 WAR higher than his next best team mate compared to 0.7 for Utley. (2-1) Utley
Utley has a higher defensive WAR, with a 0.2 to 0.1 advantage
Winner: Chase Utley
(8) Jose Fernandez vs. (9) Giancarlo Stanton
Both players are on the same team which neutralizes this point.
Fernandez holds the OPS/ERA+ edge as he has a 231 to 149 edge. (1-0 Fernandez)
Fernandez has a WAR 0.7 higher than the next best Marlins pitcher while Stanton's edge over the next best Marlins hitter is 0.4 (2-0 Fernandez)
Stanton gets a free point in the pitcher versus hitter battle (2-1) Fernandez
However, Stanton gets the media bias point and the tie-breaker due to being an every day position player and the fact that even people who don't care about the Marlins actually know that he's a big deal
Winner: Giancarlo Stanton
QUARTERFINALS:
(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (9) Giancarlo Stanton
The Rockies are 1/2 game behind the Giants and in the top wild card spot, giving Tulowitzkit the edge here (1-0 Tulowitzki).
Tulowitzki holds the OPS+ edge 223-149. (2-0 Tulowitzki).
Tulowitzki has a 1.0 WAR advantage compared to the next best Rockies hitter (not bad considering Charlie Blackmon is 4th in the NL in WAR).
Winner: Troy Tulowitzki
(4) Charlie Blackmon vs. (5) Yovani Gallardo
The Brewers are the best team in baseball right now (yaaay) and have a 6 1/2 game lead over the Cardinals (1-0 Gallardo).
Gallardo has the OPS+/ERA+ edge at 188-174. (2-0 Gallardo)
Gallardo has a 0.4 WAR advantage over K-Rod while Blackmon is second on his own team to Tulowitzki.
Winner: Yovani Gallardo
(3) Johnny Cueto vs. (6) Jeff Samardzija
The Reds are only 7 1/2 games out of first compared to 11 for the Cubs. (1-0 Cueto)
Cueto has the edge in ERA+ 312-191. (2-0 Cueto)
Cueto has a 1.3 WAR edge over Alfredo Simon compared to 0.2.
Winner: Johnny Cueto
(2) Adam Wainwright vs. (7) Chase Utley
Both teams are right at .500 but the Phillies trail their division by fewer games (1-0 Utley).
Wainwright has the OPS+/ERA+ edge at 290-172. (1-1 Tied)
Wainwright has the larger WAR advantage (1.5 to 0.7) 2-1 Wainwright
Utley gets the free batter point 2-2 Tied.
The media bias one is pretty close. Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals which makes him gritty, gutty and always supported by the "best" fans in baseball. Utley plays on the east coast and is one of the favorite players of Mac from It's Always Sunny. When in doubt, give the media bias point to the player who plays their home games in the Eastern Time Zone.
Winner: Chase Utley
SEMI-FINALS:
(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (5) Yovani Gallardo
The Brewers are currently the best team in baseball (1-0 Gallardo).
Tulowitzki holds the ERA+/OPS+ edge at 223-188 (1-1 Tied).
Tulowitzki holds the team mate WAR edge at 1.0 to 0.4 (2-1 Tulowitzki)
Tulowitzki gets the free batter point.
Winner: Troy Tulowitzki
(3) Johnny Cueto vs. (7) Chase Utley
The Phillies are off to a slightly better start than the Reds (1-0 Utley).
Cueto holds a 312-172 ERA+/OPS+ edge (1-1 Tied).
Cueto holds the team mate WAR edge at 1.3 to 0.7 (2-1 Cueto)
Utley gets the free batter point (2-2 Tied)
In the tie-breaker Utley advances on the media bias point again as the Phillies have a higher media profile than the Reds.
Winner: Chase Utley
FINALS:
(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (7) Chase Utley
The Rockies are currently in better position for the playoffs (1-0 Tulowitzki).
Tulowitzki holds the OPS+ edge at 223-188 (2-0 Tulowitzki).
Tulowitzki holds the WAR team mate edge at 1.0 to 0.7
NL MVP TO DATE: Troy Tulowitzki
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
American League MVP Tournament: Who's In The Best Spot for AL MVP So Far?
So, I'm testing out a new feature for the end of each month in trying to determine who is the head horse in the AL MVP at any given time: I'm going to take the Top 10 players by WAR (per baseball reference and through 4/28/14) and face them off against each other in a tournament style bracket (with the players ranked 1st and second getting first round byes). The criteria is as follows which mixes performance and attempts to factor in particular media biases as well:
Which team is in the best position to make the postseason?
Who has Higher OPS/ERA+
Who has a better Defensive WAR (If two pitchers not applicable, the batter gets the point if matched against pitcher as a bonus point for playing in more games)
What is difference in WAR between player and second best player on their team?
Since the MVP voting has an arbitrary sometimes irrational aspect to it, the tie-breaker will be who I perceive the media to like better between the two players
All numbers referenced found on either the players or their team's baseball-reference page.
Play In Round:
(7) Scott Feldman vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in much better position to make the post season as they are not the Astros 1-0 Scherzer
Feldman has a higher ERA+ (252 - 174) 1-1
Both players pitchers, Defensive WAR not applicable
Difference between them and next best team-mate gives Feldman a 2-1 advantage
Arbitrary voting process gives Scherzer the advantage as he is a well established name with a Cy Young to his record which ties it up at 2-2. Since I think Scherzer is going to be better going forward, Scherzer Advances to the next round
Winner: Max Scherzer
(8) Scott Kazmir vs. (9) Masahiro Tanaka
Both teams are in strong position to make the post-season but Tanaka gets the edge here as the Yankees have a larger lead in the AL East. 1-0 Tanaka
Kazmir has the edge in ERA+ (239-185) 1-1 Tied
Defensive WAR not applicable
Tanaka has 0.5 WAR advantage over next best pitcher while Kazmir's team-mate Sonny Gray has a higher WAR 2-1 Tanaka
In the arbitrary category, Tanaka wins as his free agent status was one of the biggest stories of the winter and he plays for the Yankees which never hurt award voting.
Winner: Masahiro Tanaka
Quarterfinals:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (9) Masahiro Tanaka
The Yankees are currently in first place and the Angels are stuck in the middle of the pack 1-0 Tanaka
Tanaka has a 185 OPS+ to 180 for Trout 2-0 Tanaka
Going Batter vs. Pitcher so Trout gets a free point here 2-1 Tanaka
Trout has a 1.1 WAR lead over the next best Angels batter while Tanaka only has a 0.5 advantage
The arbitrary one is a bit tricky while Trout is the much better player voters have voted Trout second the last couple years as they treat advanced numbers like the boogey monster and Tanaka could get the irrational media advantage due to the east coast media bias but Tanaka has never been in a Subway commercial so trout gets the edge here.
Winner: Mike Trout
(4) Josh Donaldson vs. (5) Sonny Gray
There is no edge for whose team has the best playoff chances as both players play for the Oakland A's.
Gray has a 220 ERA+ versus 150+ for Donaldson. 1-0 Gray
Donaldson gets the batter bonus for going up against a pitcher 1-1 Tie
Donaldson has a 0.8 WAR advantage over the next best hitter on his team while Gray only has a 0.1 WAR advantage over Scott Kazmir 2-1 Donaldson
The arbitrary what would a half-attentive media member person do is pretty close as the Athletics win their games in relative anonymity. Since tie goes to the batter here, Donaldson moves on to the semi-finals.
Winner: Josh Donaldson
(3) Ben Zobrist vs. (6) Jason Vargas
The Rays are in last place, 4 1/2 out of first. The Royals ain't exactly lighting it up but are at .500 and 1 1/2 behind the Tigers. 1-0 Vargas
Vargas has a 277 ERA+ to Zobrist's 144 OPS+ 1-1 2-0 Vargas
Zobrist gets the batter bonus point here. 2-1 Vargas
Zobrist has a WAR of 0.8 better than the next best Rays hitter versus Vargas' 0.6 advantage over the next best pitcher 2-2 Tied
This is another case where both players play on teams that are ignored by the media but since Zobrist plays in the AL East and at least plays against the Red Sox & Yankees, he gets the irrational media point.
Winner: Ben Zobrist
(2) Martin Perez vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Rangers are one game behind Detroit while the Tigers hold a 1 game lead. 1-0 Scherzer
Perez has a much better ERA+ (301-174) 1-1 Tie
Perez has a 0.8 WAR advantage over next best Rangers pitcher while Scherzer has a 0.2 advantage 2-1 Perez
With the irrational media vote, Scherzer would get the bump and tie-breaker and moves on to the semi-finals.
Winner: Max Scherzer
SEMI-FINALS:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (4) Josh Donaldson
The A's are off to the better start, giving Donaldson a 1-0 lead
Trout has a 180-150 advantage in OPS+. 1-1 Tied
Trout has a 0.7 to 0.4 advantage in dWAR 2-1 Trout.
Trout has a higher WAR versus his team's second best hitter (1.1 to 0.8)
Winner: Mike Trout
(3) Ben Zobrist vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in better position for post-season play so far. 1-0 Scherzer
Scherzer has the OPS/ERA+ edge (174-144). 2-0 Scherzer
Zobrist has a higher WAR advantage versus the next best hitter/pitcher on their team (0.8 to 0.2) 2-1 Scherzer
Zobrist gets the free batter point 2-2.
Scherzer gets the media bias point as he is Miguel Cabrera's teammate.
Winner: Max Scherzer
FINALS:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in better position to make the playoffs 1-0 Scherzer.
Trout has the OPS+/ERA+ edge (180-174) 1-1 Tie.
Trout has the higher WAR advantage over next best team-mate 2-1 Trout.
Trout gets the batter point and wins.
AL MVP Pick as of 4/29/14: MIKE TROUT
Which team is in the best position to make the postseason?
Who has Higher OPS/ERA+
Who has a better Defensive WAR (If two pitchers not applicable, the batter gets the point if matched against pitcher as a bonus point for playing in more games)
What is difference in WAR between player and second best player on their team?
Since the MVP voting has an arbitrary sometimes irrational aspect to it, the tie-breaker will be who I perceive the media to like better between the two players
All numbers referenced found on either the players or their team's baseball-reference page.
Play In Round:
(7) Scott Feldman vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in much better position to make the post season as they are not the Astros 1-0 Scherzer
Feldman has a higher ERA+ (252 - 174) 1-1
Both players pitchers, Defensive WAR not applicable
Difference between them and next best team-mate gives Feldman a 2-1 advantage
Arbitrary voting process gives Scherzer the advantage as he is a well established name with a Cy Young to his record which ties it up at 2-2. Since I think Scherzer is going to be better going forward, Scherzer Advances to the next round
Winner: Max Scherzer
(8) Scott Kazmir vs. (9) Masahiro Tanaka
Both teams are in strong position to make the post-season but Tanaka gets the edge here as the Yankees have a larger lead in the AL East. 1-0 Tanaka
Kazmir has the edge in ERA+ (239-185) 1-1 Tied
Defensive WAR not applicable
Tanaka has 0.5 WAR advantage over next best pitcher while Kazmir's team-mate Sonny Gray has a higher WAR 2-1 Tanaka
In the arbitrary category, Tanaka wins as his free agent status was one of the biggest stories of the winter and he plays for the Yankees which never hurt award voting.
Winner: Masahiro Tanaka
Quarterfinals:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (9) Masahiro Tanaka
The Yankees are currently in first place and the Angels are stuck in the middle of the pack 1-0 Tanaka
Tanaka has a 185 OPS+ to 180 for Trout 2-0 Tanaka
Going Batter vs. Pitcher so Trout gets a free point here 2-1 Tanaka
Trout has a 1.1 WAR lead over the next best Angels batter while Tanaka only has a 0.5 advantage
The arbitrary one is a bit tricky while Trout is the much better player voters have voted Trout second the last couple years as they treat advanced numbers like the boogey monster and Tanaka could get the irrational media advantage due to the east coast media bias but Tanaka has never been in a Subway commercial so trout gets the edge here.
Winner: Mike Trout
(4) Josh Donaldson vs. (5) Sonny Gray
There is no edge for whose team has the best playoff chances as both players play for the Oakland A's.
Gray has a 220 ERA+ versus 150+ for Donaldson. 1-0 Gray
Donaldson gets the batter bonus for going up against a pitcher 1-1 Tie
Donaldson has a 0.8 WAR advantage over the next best hitter on his team while Gray only has a 0.1 WAR advantage over Scott Kazmir 2-1 Donaldson
The arbitrary what would a half-attentive media member person do is pretty close as the Athletics win their games in relative anonymity. Since tie goes to the batter here, Donaldson moves on to the semi-finals.
Winner: Josh Donaldson
(3) Ben Zobrist vs. (6) Jason Vargas
The Rays are in last place, 4 1/2 out of first. The Royals ain't exactly lighting it up but are at .500 and 1 1/2 behind the Tigers. 1-0 Vargas
Vargas has a 277 ERA+ to Zobrist's 144 OPS+ 1-1 2-0 Vargas
Zobrist gets the batter bonus point here. 2-1 Vargas
Zobrist has a WAR of 0.8 better than the next best Rays hitter versus Vargas' 0.6 advantage over the next best pitcher 2-2 Tied
This is another case where both players play on teams that are ignored by the media but since Zobrist plays in the AL East and at least plays against the Red Sox & Yankees, he gets the irrational media point.
Winner: Ben Zobrist
(2) Martin Perez vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Rangers are one game behind Detroit while the Tigers hold a 1 game lead. 1-0 Scherzer
Perez has a much better ERA+ (301-174) 1-1 Tie
Perez has a 0.8 WAR advantage over next best Rangers pitcher while Scherzer has a 0.2 advantage 2-1 Perez
With the irrational media vote, Scherzer would get the bump and tie-breaker and moves on to the semi-finals.
Winner: Max Scherzer
SEMI-FINALS:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (4) Josh Donaldson
The A's are off to the better start, giving Donaldson a 1-0 lead
Trout has a 180-150 advantage in OPS+. 1-1 Tied
Trout has a 0.7 to 0.4 advantage in dWAR 2-1 Trout.
Trout has a higher WAR versus his team's second best hitter (1.1 to 0.8)
Winner: Mike Trout
(3) Ben Zobrist vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in better position for post-season play so far. 1-0 Scherzer
Scherzer has the OPS/ERA+ edge (174-144). 2-0 Scherzer
Zobrist has a higher WAR advantage versus the next best hitter/pitcher on their team (0.8 to 0.2) 2-1 Scherzer
Zobrist gets the free batter point 2-2.
Scherzer gets the media bias point as he is Miguel Cabrera's teammate.
Winner: Max Scherzer
FINALS:
(1) Mike Trout vs. (10) Max Scherzer
The Tigers are in better position to make the playoffs 1-0 Scherzer.
Trout has the OPS+/ERA+ edge (180-174) 1-1 Tie.
Trout has the higher WAR advantage over next best team-mate 2-1 Trout.
Trout gets the batter point and wins.
AL MVP Pick as of 4/29/14: MIKE TROUT
Monday, April 28, 2014
Yay or Nay: Collin McHugh, Kyle Seager:
Collin McHugh:
Even on teams going nowhere, there is always someone on those teams of value even it is the Astros. In limited duty in 2012 & 2013, he was definitely not that value play as he got shelled in brief stints with the Mets and Rockies.
He got picked up by the Astros in the off-season and in his first two starts (against Oakland & Seattle) he has been absolutely dominant. Since he was never a marquee prospect (18th round draft pick) and never made it onto any top prospect lists (despite decent minor league performance) and didn't even make the Astros roster out of spring training, I have a healthy does of skepticism regarding the ability for him to hold up this performance all year.
One thing that he has going for him is an FIP (1.39) that has indicated that his first two starts are very strong. Still, there are some red flags such as a .161 BABIP that's bound to go up (along with eventually his ERA). Even after two strong starts, i'm not exactly sold on McHugh and i'm going to have to say Nay.
Kyle Seager:
Seager has been on an absolute tear over the last week as he's hit all five of his home runs since the 23rd and had two multi-homer games. It is sort of surprising that he was this far under the radar that it took until late-April for owners to rush to pick him up.
Seager has hit 20+ homers over the last couple years and showed above average production overall in both seasons (108 OPS+/118 OPS+ in 2012 & 2013 respectively). He's likely never to be a monster in the batting average side of things but his power and the ability to draw walks seems to be constantly improving over the last few weeks.
Speaking of batting average, currently it sits at .228, below his career average of .258 since he has gotten fairly unlucky (.241 BABIP), the batting average should start moving towards the .250-.260 range by the end of the season. Since he is also 26, all signs point to him continuing to progress and work towards his peak. If things go right, he could be able to hit between 25-30 homers and also throw in around 10 steals.
Looking from a long-term perspective, his most similar player through age 25 was Sal Bando. While he wasn't a hall of famer, he had a very strong career hitting 242 homers and ending with a career OPS+ of 119 and finished in the top 10 in the AL in WAR on seven occasions. With both the short and long term considered, Seager is a good play in fantasy and I say Yay.
Even on teams going nowhere, there is always someone on those teams of value even it is the Astros. In limited duty in 2012 & 2013, he was definitely not that value play as he got shelled in brief stints with the Mets and Rockies.
He got picked up by the Astros in the off-season and in his first two starts (against Oakland & Seattle) he has been absolutely dominant. Since he was never a marquee prospect (18th round draft pick) and never made it onto any top prospect lists (despite decent minor league performance) and didn't even make the Astros roster out of spring training, I have a healthy does of skepticism regarding the ability for him to hold up this performance all year.
One thing that he has going for him is an FIP (1.39) that has indicated that his first two starts are very strong. Still, there are some red flags such as a .161 BABIP that's bound to go up (along with eventually his ERA). Even after two strong starts, i'm not exactly sold on McHugh and i'm going to have to say Nay.
Kyle Seager:
Seager has been on an absolute tear over the last week as he's hit all five of his home runs since the 23rd and had two multi-homer games. It is sort of surprising that he was this far under the radar that it took until late-April for owners to rush to pick him up.
Seager has hit 20+ homers over the last couple years and showed above average production overall in both seasons (108 OPS+/118 OPS+ in 2012 & 2013 respectively). He's likely never to be a monster in the batting average side of things but his power and the ability to draw walks seems to be constantly improving over the last few weeks.
Speaking of batting average, currently it sits at .228, below his career average of .258 since he has gotten fairly unlucky (.241 BABIP), the batting average should start moving towards the .250-.260 range by the end of the season. Since he is also 26, all signs point to him continuing to progress and work towards his peak. If things go right, he could be able to hit between 25-30 homers and also throw in around 10 steals.
Looking from a long-term perspective, his most similar player through age 25 was Sal Bando. While he wasn't a hall of famer, he had a very strong career hitting 242 homers and ending with a career OPS+ of 119 and finished in the top 10 in the AL in WAR on seven occasions. With both the short and long term considered, Seager is a good play in fantasy and I say Yay.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Yay or Nay: Joe Smith, Josh Beckett
Joe Smith:
I wonder how many more people would be adding Smith if it was official that he was taking over closer duties instead of there being rumors, speculation & sources that he may taking over that role soon. It also seemed sort of curious when the Angels gave him a 3yr 15.75 million dollar deal over the offseason.
While he has only three saves to his credit, smith has done well wherever he's been in his career (135 Career ERA+) and has had an above average ERA+ in every season that he's pitched. He has shown some raw skills that could translate into him working out as a closer as he's struck out 9.9 per 9 and so far his walks per 9 (2.7) is on track to be the best it has been in his career.
His FIP (2.32) is very strong and there aren't any indications or warning flags that he would struggle as a closer like his team mate Ernesto Frieri has. If you have a tough closer situation and have someone that you were already looking to get rid of, pick him up now. If your relief pitching situation is more stable, wait it out for a day to see if they decide to name Joe Smith their closer before picking him up. Either way, I say Yay.
Josh Beckett:
Beckett is coming off of a strong start against Arizona (just like Jason Hammel was when he got towards the top of Yahoo's transaction trends). I guess if you want to increase your fantasy value as a starting pitcher, does part of that mean hope you have an upcoming start against the Diamondbacks?
If it was 5-7 years ago, Beckett would have already been drafted and owners would not be scrambling to pick him up three-plus weeks into the season. Naturally, I am a bit skeptical as the last couple years he's missed significant time with injuries and hasn't been very effective when healthy.
While his ERA is at 2.57, his FIP is at 3.80, not great but possibly helpful as a lower-end starting pitcher option. He is racking up a career high in strikeouts (10.3 per 9) but also doing the same for walks (5.1), his BABIP is a bit low (.242) as well. Unlike other pitchers such as Jason Hammel, there's at least an argument for picking up Beckett but the past health history and the increase in walks per 9 innings makes me say Nay.
I wonder how many more people would be adding Smith if it was official that he was taking over closer duties instead of there being rumors, speculation & sources that he may taking over that role soon. It also seemed sort of curious when the Angels gave him a 3yr 15.75 million dollar deal over the offseason.
While he has only three saves to his credit, smith has done well wherever he's been in his career (135 Career ERA+) and has had an above average ERA+ in every season that he's pitched. He has shown some raw skills that could translate into him working out as a closer as he's struck out 9.9 per 9 and so far his walks per 9 (2.7) is on track to be the best it has been in his career.
His FIP (2.32) is very strong and there aren't any indications or warning flags that he would struggle as a closer like his team mate Ernesto Frieri has. If you have a tough closer situation and have someone that you were already looking to get rid of, pick him up now. If your relief pitching situation is more stable, wait it out for a day to see if they decide to name Joe Smith their closer before picking him up. Either way, I say Yay.
Josh Beckett:
Beckett is coming off of a strong start against Arizona (just like Jason Hammel was when he got towards the top of Yahoo's transaction trends). I guess if you want to increase your fantasy value as a starting pitcher, does part of that mean hope you have an upcoming start against the Diamondbacks?
If it was 5-7 years ago, Beckett would have already been drafted and owners would not be scrambling to pick him up three-plus weeks into the season. Naturally, I am a bit skeptical as the last couple years he's missed significant time with injuries and hasn't been very effective when healthy.
While his ERA is at 2.57, his FIP is at 3.80, not great but possibly helpful as a lower-end starting pitcher option. He is racking up a career high in strikeouts (10.3 per 9) but also doing the same for walks (5.1), his BABIP is a bit low (.242) as well. Unlike other pitchers such as Jason Hammel, there's at least an argument for picking up Beckett but the past health history and the increase in walks per 9 innings makes me say Nay.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Yay or Nay: Devin Mesoraco, Jason Hammel
Devin Mesoraco:
The Reds may be off to a slow start but owners have been picking up their players (such as Alfredo Simon and Mesoraco). I wouldn't expect their struggles to continue as they have a solid Pythagorean record of 12-8.
Mesoraco has been one of those players that people have been expecting to break out (and been disappointed by a lack of break out) over the last couple years as he stumbled to a .238/.287/.362 line last year.
So far, 2014 has been another story so far as his first 42 plate appearances have led to a .541/.571/.946 313 OPS+ line. Going into this year, past history wasn't on his side as his most similar player through age 25 A.J. Hinch finished his career with an OPS+ of 65.
While it is clear that Mesoraco is in line for regression, the question is will he play good enough to be a value in fantasy and show off the promise that made him a first round pick and a top-25 prospect prior to the 2012 season. While I was expecting his BABIP to be high, I wasn't expecting it to be .630 which is more than 2 times higher than normal. Even if we cut the current batting average in half, that puts us at .270 which still passes as progress. As he does get older, I think he will make progress from the power department maybe into the 10-15 home run range. While he's not going to be a superstar, you can get decent value from him in the catching department as he appears in line for a solid but not an omg look at that crazy good line fueled by a .630 BABIP type season. On him, I say Yay.
Jason Hammel:
Hammel is coming off a strong start against Arizona last night which seems to have a lot of people in a hurry to pick him up. A 4-start sample (one of the few positives from what is looking to be another bad season for the Cubs) seems to have people convinced to overlook the last 8 years of slightly below average production and think that he could be breaking out and becoming a high level pitching option at age 31.
Me, i'm not convinced. His FIP (ability to prevent homers, walks, hit batsmen and induce strikeouts) is at 4.47 (which is actual higher than his career total of 4.33) and BABIP for opposing players is at a microscopic .132. In addition to basically being the same pitcher and being extremely lucky, his three wins have come against sub-.500 teams (Arizona, & two starts against Pittsburgh).
Hammel's strong early numbers appear to be more of a fluke than an indication that he figured things out as he moved onto the wrong side of 30. Let the opposition learn this the hard way as I say Nay.
All numbers, statistics, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
The Reds may be off to a slow start but owners have been picking up their players (such as Alfredo Simon and Mesoraco). I wouldn't expect their struggles to continue as they have a solid Pythagorean record of 12-8.
Mesoraco has been one of those players that people have been expecting to break out (and been disappointed by a lack of break out) over the last couple years as he stumbled to a .238/.287/.362 line last year.
So far, 2014 has been another story so far as his first 42 plate appearances have led to a .541/.571/.946 313 OPS+ line. Going into this year, past history wasn't on his side as his most similar player through age 25 A.J. Hinch finished his career with an OPS+ of 65.
While it is clear that Mesoraco is in line for regression, the question is will he play good enough to be a value in fantasy and show off the promise that made him a first round pick and a top-25 prospect prior to the 2012 season. While I was expecting his BABIP to be high, I wasn't expecting it to be .630 which is more than 2 times higher than normal. Even if we cut the current batting average in half, that puts us at .270 which still passes as progress. As he does get older, I think he will make progress from the power department maybe into the 10-15 home run range. While he's not going to be a superstar, you can get decent value from him in the catching department as he appears in line for a solid but not an omg look at that crazy good line fueled by a .630 BABIP type season. On him, I say Yay.
Jason Hammel:
Hammel is coming off a strong start against Arizona last night which seems to have a lot of people in a hurry to pick him up. A 4-start sample (one of the few positives from what is looking to be another bad season for the Cubs) seems to have people convinced to overlook the last 8 years of slightly below average production and think that he could be breaking out and becoming a high level pitching option at age 31.
Me, i'm not convinced. His FIP (ability to prevent homers, walks, hit batsmen and induce strikeouts) is at 4.47 (which is actual higher than his career total of 4.33) and BABIP for opposing players is at a microscopic .132. In addition to basically being the same pitcher and being extremely lucky, his three wins have come against sub-.500 teams (Arizona, & two starts against Pittsburgh).
Hammel's strong early numbers appear to be more of a fluke than an indication that he figured things out as he moved onto the wrong side of 30. Let the opposition learn this the hard way as I say Nay.
All numbers, statistics, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
Yay or Nay: Alcides Escobar, Dayan Viciedo
Alcides Escobar:
Escobar is a player a remember relatively well from his days as a Brewer. While he did show plenty of promise with his speed and defense, the offensive side of the game is one where he experienced plenty of struggles. After going to Kansas City in the trade that brought Zach Greinke over to the Brewers, he continued to get regular playing time primarily due to his glove.
Escobar has been on a recent hot streak with his bat and he has a nice 129 OPS+ in his first 69 plate appearances. While he is at an age (27) when many players hit their peak, I am naturally a bit skeptical. His most similar player through age 26 is Cesar Izturis , a player that was never mistaken for a strong offensive player or someone who ever had much fantasy value.
In a best case scenario, he's not going to provide much power or get many rbi opportuntities (he's primarily hit ninth this year) so it comes down to whether he could provide enough in the batting average and stolen bases category to help your team. One red flag is that his BABIP (.380) is a bit high and will eventually take his batting average down with it. Also, he appears to be a player who has taken advantage of a soft schedule. While he has hit well against sub .500 teams, he is sporting a .572 OPS against teams with winning records. While I know there are less and less stolen base threats and that shortstop is historically a thin position, i'm still skeptical on Escobar's value going forward and i'm going to have to say Nay.
Dayan Viciedo:
For what it's worth, Viciedo comes into today as the AL Leader in batting average (.361) but hasn't hit for much power (1 homer in 68 plate appearances) with both of these trends being outside career norms for him. Over the last couple years, he's hit double figure homers but had a mediocre batting average and drew less than 30 walks each season, something that tends not to bode well in the long term.
The Tank is still only 25 though so it is possible that he is in the process of taking his game to the next level. His most similar player through age 24 is Mike Marshall who had a career year at age 25 .293/.342/.515 141 OPS+ 28 homers and Larry Walker is fourth on his similar list through age 24 so it is possible that better days are ahead for him.
While I think he is a decent option if you need power, as I suspected the batting average is not even close to being sustainable as his BABIP is in at (.429). One positive I see in Viciedo is he's not just padding his numbers against bad teams as he's done his best work against teams north of the .500 mark (1.036 OPS).
I think Viciedo could be a valuable pickup. While his batting average is going to regress, his strong performance against some of the better teams in the league leads me to believe that he's in for a better season. I think he will show some improvement in batting average ending up in the .270-.280 range while throwing in somewhere in the 20-25 home run range. For Viciedo, i'm going to say Yay.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
Escobar is a player a remember relatively well from his days as a Brewer. While he did show plenty of promise with his speed and defense, the offensive side of the game is one where he experienced plenty of struggles. After going to Kansas City in the trade that brought Zach Greinke over to the Brewers, he continued to get regular playing time primarily due to his glove.
Escobar has been on a recent hot streak with his bat and he has a nice 129 OPS+ in his first 69 plate appearances. While he is at an age (27) when many players hit their peak, I am naturally a bit skeptical. His most similar player through age 26 is Cesar Izturis , a player that was never mistaken for a strong offensive player or someone who ever had much fantasy value.
In a best case scenario, he's not going to provide much power or get many rbi opportuntities (he's primarily hit ninth this year) so it comes down to whether he could provide enough in the batting average and stolen bases category to help your team. One red flag is that his BABIP (.380) is a bit high and will eventually take his batting average down with it. Also, he appears to be a player who has taken advantage of a soft schedule. While he has hit well against sub .500 teams, he is sporting a .572 OPS against teams with winning records. While I know there are less and less stolen base threats and that shortstop is historically a thin position, i'm still skeptical on Escobar's value going forward and i'm going to have to say Nay.
Dayan Viciedo:
For what it's worth, Viciedo comes into today as the AL Leader in batting average (.361) but hasn't hit for much power (1 homer in 68 plate appearances) with both of these trends being outside career norms for him. Over the last couple years, he's hit double figure homers but had a mediocre batting average and drew less than 30 walks each season, something that tends not to bode well in the long term.
The Tank is still only 25 though so it is possible that he is in the process of taking his game to the next level. His most similar player through age 24 is Mike Marshall who had a career year at age 25 .293/.342/.515 141 OPS+ 28 homers and Larry Walker is fourth on his similar list through age 24 so it is possible that better days are ahead for him.
While I think he is a decent option if you need power, as I suspected the batting average is not even close to being sustainable as his BABIP is in at (.429). One positive I see in Viciedo is he's not just padding his numbers against bad teams as he's done his best work against teams north of the .500 mark (1.036 OPS).
I think Viciedo could be a valuable pickup. While his batting average is going to regress, his strong performance against some of the better teams in the league leads me to believe that he's in for a better season. I think he will show some improvement in batting average ending up in the .270-.280 range while throwing in somewhere in the 20-25 home run range. For Viciedo, i'm going to say Yay.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Yay or Nay: Alfredo Simon, Jenrry Mejia
Alfredo Simon:
The second time in the last week that a long time-reliever turned starter (Jesse Chavez being the other) is a player that fantasy owners are adding left and right. Coming into this year, he did have a larger sample of starting games (16 for the 2011) Orioles. Simon's career has been trending in the right direction the last couple years as he had strong seasons coming out of the bullpen in 2012 & 2013.
The Reds may be off to a sluggish start (8-11 so far) but Simon can't be blamed for that as he has a 0.86 era/0.810 WHIP over his first three starts. Like with any fast start, there is going to be some obvious regression with the question being will the regression land him somewhere where he is still useful for fantasy owners.
His FIP over the first few starts is at 3.14 suggesting that he could be in the midst of a breakout season. The one thing that is a bit concerning is that his BABIP is uber low (.197) which will likely rear its ugly head and correct itself when least expected probably when he faces a much tougher line up (he's faced the Cubs, Mets & Rays) thus far. While I think people are over-reacting due to a hot three start stretch that is not to suggest he has no value. The strong FIP suggests that he can maintain a decent (though not star performance) as the season goes on and that he could be of use, for Simon, it's a Yay.
Jenrry Mejia:
The Mets are surprisingly not terrible right now (10-9) and early strong performance from Mejia (so far) has gone a long way towards this measure. Unlike Alfredo Simon, i'm a little more skeptical on Mejia maintaining a performance strong enough to justify fantasy value over the entire season.
The FIP is creeping up towards mid to back end of rotation level (3.84) and he's giving up way too many walks for comfort (5.6 per 9 this year, 4.0 per 9 in 105 career innings). For what its worth, he has pitched reasonably well in two starts against contending teams (Braves & Cardinals) but at the end of the day, the possible control issues are too much to overlook, for Mejia it's a nay.
All numbers found on baseball-reference.com
The second time in the last week that a long time-reliever turned starter (Jesse Chavez being the other) is a player that fantasy owners are adding left and right. Coming into this year, he did have a larger sample of starting games (16 for the 2011) Orioles. Simon's career has been trending in the right direction the last couple years as he had strong seasons coming out of the bullpen in 2012 & 2013.
The Reds may be off to a sluggish start (8-11 so far) but Simon can't be blamed for that as he has a 0.86 era/0.810 WHIP over his first three starts. Like with any fast start, there is going to be some obvious regression with the question being will the regression land him somewhere where he is still useful for fantasy owners.
His FIP over the first few starts is at 3.14 suggesting that he could be in the midst of a breakout season. The one thing that is a bit concerning is that his BABIP is uber low (.197) which will likely rear its ugly head and correct itself when least expected probably when he faces a much tougher line up (he's faced the Cubs, Mets & Rays) thus far. While I think people are over-reacting due to a hot three start stretch that is not to suggest he has no value. The strong FIP suggests that he can maintain a decent (though not star performance) as the season goes on and that he could be of use, for Simon, it's a Yay.
Jenrry Mejia:
The Mets are surprisingly not terrible right now (10-9) and early strong performance from Mejia (so far) has gone a long way towards this measure. Unlike Alfredo Simon, i'm a little more skeptical on Mejia maintaining a performance strong enough to justify fantasy value over the entire season.
The FIP is creeping up towards mid to back end of rotation level (3.84) and he's giving up way too many walks for comfort (5.6 per 9 this year, 4.0 per 9 in 105 career innings). For what its worth, he has pitched reasonably well in two starts against contending teams (Braves & Cardinals) but at the end of the day, the possible control issues are too much to overlook, for Mejia it's a nay.
All numbers found on baseball-reference.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)