With the first weekend of playoff action behind us (and with it, the yearly playoff meltdowns of Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton, Mike McCarthy, Dom Capers and Andy Reid). Like, last week, I will give my take and supplement it with a one-off simulation that I did on whatifsports.com
NFC:
Saints vs. Seahawks
When these two teams played on Monday night football during the season, it looked like it would be one of the more contested and interesting match ups of the season. Instead, the Saints no-showed and the Seahawks won the game in a blowout. The Saints did quell some of their road critics by gutting out a tough win over the Eagles. With that said, I think the Seahawks win this rematch.
My Pick: Seahawks
What If Pick: Saints 30 Seahawks 6
49ers vs. Panthers
The Packers spent all summer fixated on trying to stop Colin Kaepernick and 49ers and FAILED MISERABLY in their attempt to do so. Now they are off to play the Carolina Panthers who have not been in the playoffs since 2008 but are looking to make some noise with Cam Newton. I've gone back and forth on this game but sadly I think the Niners score themselves another playoff win.
Pick: 49ers
What If Pick: 49ers 21 Panthers 13 (Hunter w/go ahead 1 yd td with :54 left)
AFC:
Chargers vs. Broncos
The Chargers defense gutted out a good playoff victory over the Bengals upping Mike McCoy's playoff record to 1-0. While the Chargers did score themselves a nice road playoff win, one concern I have with them was their conservative play calling in the 4th quarter that theoretically could have let the Bengals back into the game (which Ronnie Brown put a stop to). The Broncos have put up some gaudy offensive numbers but Peyton Manning doesn't exactly have the strongest playoff track record. I think the Chargers come in playing like they have nothing to lose and come away with a win.
Pick: Chargers
What If Pick: Chargers 23 Broncos 17
Colts vs. Patriots
Andrew Luck may have not been perfect but he led the Colts from 28 points down in the second half in the first every playoff game I watched with Zeplen. Tom Brady and the Patriots haven't looked dominating at times this year but still found a way to win games. I think the Patriots win this in a game that's an instant classic.
Pick: Patriots
What If Pick: Colts 30 Patriots 17
The What If Simulations I ran predicted the following for the rest of the playoffs:
49ers over Saints (In what would take over the slot for last game ever at Candlestick)
Chargers over Colts
49ers over Chargers
I think the Championship games would go as follows:
Seahawks over 49ers
Chargers over Patriots
Seahawks over Chargers
Thursday, January 9, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Delmon Young, Andres Torres, Wilson Betemit & Grady Sizemore
Delmon Young:
Delmon Young, the player that fans love to hate. A lot of times, its pretty easy to see why. He had (or has) all the talent in the world and the perception is that he doesn't put in the appropriate effort. The guy will hack at any pitch (no more than 35 walks in a season) and whenever he catches on with a given team, it gives the fanbase of said team a sense of dread. When doing research on him, one of the articles on baseball-reference was one about the worst #1 draft picks over the last 20 years (from the website battingleadoff.com.
Offensively, he had one pretty solid season (2010) and despite the absence of any batting discretion/selection his career OPS+ is pretty average (98). However, what marginal value he brings on the offense is more than countered by being a defensive liability. He's been below replacement level defensively in every year of his career (except for 2006 when he only played 30 games).
Despite all the criticism and jokes made at his expense, the teams he has been on have tended to win games (even if he hasn't contributed to this) as he's seen post-season action the last five years and hit relatively well in the small sample size of post-season play.
The one thing that is quickly forgotten is that he is still relatively young. His closest comparison through age-27 is Jeff Francoeur another playing who struggles with the concept of what a strike zone and what it is. After turning 27, Francoeur has turned in a couple of sub-replacement level years and is barely hanging on to his career despite being young.
Andres Torres:
He has a couple of out of nowhere good seasons in 2010 & 2011but that peak has come and gone (his OPS+ has been 85-ish over the last few years). He's not getting any younger (35) and the best case scenario is for him to catch on as a fourth or fifth outfielder. His most similar player through 35 is Kosuke Fukudome who has not played since his age 35 season in 2012.
Wilson Betemit:
For most of his career, he's been good enough to do a decent job against major league pitching (104 OPS+) but never good enough to be able to play full time or to get a DH gig where his sub-par defense can be hidden. While he has played at least 20 games at four different positions, he hasn't played any of these positions well defensively as he's played sub-replacement level defense for every team he's played for. He could be a good candidate as a pinch-hitter if there's anything left in his bat which there should be since he's still relatively young (31). His most similar batter, is Russ Davis. His last season was his age 31 season which saw him hit pretty well in limited duty.
Grady Sizemore:
For a few years, it looked like Sizemore had a chance to be one of the elite players of this era. However, as what has happened with many a promising career, his appears to be derailed by injuries. He hit for a good average, had good power, good speed and a good eye (drawing 101 walks in 2007). Basically, it comes down to can he come back from his injury issues and still be a productive player. After a couple of bad years, the Indians seem to think the answer to this question is no.
The one thing to keep in mind is that he's still only 28 years old. The most similar player through age-28 was Reggie Smith. Unlike many other players top similar who basically washed out after their analyzed age, Reggie Smith's career was far from over after 28. He played for 9 more years, found himself in a few all-star games and he had a WAR above 4 in four of those seasons. Bottom line, is that if another team is willing to take a risk on Sizemore for 2014, this could be one of those unheralded moves that looks like its a genius move by the end of this year.
Delmon Young, the player that fans love to hate. A lot of times, its pretty easy to see why. He had (or has) all the talent in the world and the perception is that he doesn't put in the appropriate effort. The guy will hack at any pitch (no more than 35 walks in a season) and whenever he catches on with a given team, it gives the fanbase of said team a sense of dread. When doing research on him, one of the articles on baseball-reference was one about the worst #1 draft picks over the last 20 years (from the website battingleadoff.com.
Offensively, he had one pretty solid season (2010) and despite the absence of any batting discretion/selection his career OPS+ is pretty average (98). However, what marginal value he brings on the offense is more than countered by being a defensive liability. He's been below replacement level defensively in every year of his career (except for 2006 when he only played 30 games).
Despite all the criticism and jokes made at his expense, the teams he has been on have tended to win games (even if he hasn't contributed to this) as he's seen post-season action the last five years and hit relatively well in the small sample size of post-season play.
The one thing that is quickly forgotten is that he is still relatively young. His closest comparison through age-27 is Jeff Francoeur another playing who struggles with the concept of what a strike zone and what it is. After turning 27, Francoeur has turned in a couple of sub-replacement level years and is barely hanging on to his career despite being young.
Andres Torres:
He has a couple of out of nowhere good seasons in 2010 & 2011but that peak has come and gone (his OPS+ has been 85-ish over the last few years). He's not getting any younger (35) and the best case scenario is for him to catch on as a fourth or fifth outfielder. His most similar player through 35 is Kosuke Fukudome who has not played since his age 35 season in 2012.
Wilson Betemit:
For most of his career, he's been good enough to do a decent job against major league pitching (104 OPS+) but never good enough to be able to play full time or to get a DH gig where his sub-par defense can be hidden. While he has played at least 20 games at four different positions, he hasn't played any of these positions well defensively as he's played sub-replacement level defense for every team he's played for. He could be a good candidate as a pinch-hitter if there's anything left in his bat which there should be since he's still relatively young (31). His most similar batter, is Russ Davis. His last season was his age 31 season which saw him hit pretty well in limited duty.
Grady Sizemore:
For a few years, it looked like Sizemore had a chance to be one of the elite players of this era. However, as what has happened with many a promising career, his appears to be derailed by injuries. He hit for a good average, had good power, good speed and a good eye (drawing 101 walks in 2007). Basically, it comes down to can he come back from his injury issues and still be a productive player. After a couple of bad years, the Indians seem to think the answer to this question is no.
The one thing to keep in mind is that he's still only 28 years old. The most similar player through age-28 was Reggie Smith. Unlike many other players top similar who basically washed out after their analyzed age, Reggie Smith's career was far from over after 28. He played for 9 more years, found himself in a few all-star games and he had a WAR above 4 in four of those seasons. Bottom line, is that if another team is willing to take a risk on Sizemore for 2014, this could be one of those unheralded moves that looks like its a genius move by the end of this year.
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Bracketology?!! Taken one Step Further w/Predictions
Many columnists do Bracketology columns from January to March to predict who will get in the tourney but not much is done for predicting how those matchups will go. Here's my prediction of how it would go based on Jerry Palm's January 6th bracket).
Play in Games
(16) Northern Colorado over (16) UNC Asheville
(12) Kansas State over (12) Wake Forest
(12) Texas over (12) Minnesota
(16) Davidson over (16) Southern
West Regional
(1) Arizona over (16) Northern Colorado
(8) Xavier over (9) Connecticut
(5) Kansas over (12) Southern Missisipi
(4) Missouri over (13) New Mexico State
(11) Arkansas over (6) Duke
(3) Baylor over (14) Stephen F. Austin
(10) Notre Dame over (7) Illinois
(2) Villanova over (15) Boston U
(1) Arizona over (8) Xavier
(5) Kansas over (4) Missouri
(3) Baylor over (11) Arkansas
(2) Villanova over (10) Notre Dame
(5) Kansas over (1) Arizona
(3) Baylor over (2) Villanova
(5) Kansas over (3) Baylor
East Regional
(1) Syracuse over (16) Albany
(8) Georgetown over (9) Memphis
(5) Massachusetts over (12) Texas
(4) Cincinnati over (13) Manhattan
(6) Pittsburgh over (11) Oklahoma
(3) Oregon over (14) UC Santa Barbara
(10) George Washington over (7) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State over (15) NCCU
(1) Syracuse over (8) Georgetown
(5) Massachusetts over (4) Cincinnati
(3) Oregon over (6) Pittsburgh
(2) Ohio State over (10) George Washington
(1) Syracuse over (5) Massachusetts
(3) Oregon over (2) Ohio State
(1) Syracuse over (3) Oregon
South Regional
(1) Michigan State over (16) Bryant
(8) Louisville over (9) Virginia
(12) Kansas State over (5) Dayton
(4) Florida over (13) North Dakota State
(11) Florida State over (6) Gonzaga
(3) San Diego State over (14) Drexel
(7) Creighton over (10) Tennessee
(2) Iowa State over (15) North Florida
(1) Michigan State over (8) Louisville
(12) Kansas State over (4) Florida
(3) San Diego State over (11) Florida State
(7) Creighton over (2) Iowa State
(1) Michigan State over (12) Kansas State)
(3) San Diego State over (7) Creighton
(1) Michigan State over (3) San Diego State
Midwest Regional
(1) Wisconsin over (16) Davidson
(9) UCLA over (8) VCU
(5) Kentucky over (12) Toledo
(4) Colorado over (13) UW Green Bay
(11) Harvard over (6) Iowa
(3) Oklahoma State over (14) Belmont
(7) North Carolina over (10) Michigan
(2) Wichita State over (15) UL Monroe
(1) Wisconsin over (9) UCLA
(5) Kentucky over (4) Colorado
(3) Oklahoma State over (11) Harvard
(2) Wichita State over (7) North Carolina
(5) Kentucky over (1) Wisconsin
(2) Wichita State over (3) Oklahoma State
(2) Wichita State over (5) Kentucky
Final Four:
(1) Syracuse over (5) Kansas
(2) Wichita State over (1) Michigan State
(1) Syracuse over (2) Wichita State
Play in Games
(16) Northern Colorado over (16) UNC Asheville
(12) Kansas State over (12) Wake Forest
(12) Texas over (12) Minnesota
(16) Davidson over (16) Southern
West Regional
(1) Arizona over (16) Northern Colorado
(8) Xavier over (9) Connecticut
(5) Kansas over (12) Southern Missisipi
(4) Missouri over (13) New Mexico State
(11) Arkansas over (6) Duke
(3) Baylor over (14) Stephen F. Austin
(10) Notre Dame over (7) Illinois
(2) Villanova over (15) Boston U
(1) Arizona over (8) Xavier
(5) Kansas over (4) Missouri
(3) Baylor over (11) Arkansas
(2) Villanova over (10) Notre Dame
(5) Kansas over (1) Arizona
(3) Baylor over (2) Villanova
(5) Kansas over (3) Baylor
East Regional
(1) Syracuse over (16) Albany
(8) Georgetown over (9) Memphis
(5) Massachusetts over (12) Texas
(4) Cincinnati over (13) Manhattan
(6) Pittsburgh over (11) Oklahoma
(3) Oregon over (14) UC Santa Barbara
(10) George Washington over (7) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State over (15) NCCU
(1) Syracuse over (8) Georgetown
(5) Massachusetts over (4) Cincinnati
(3) Oregon over (6) Pittsburgh
(2) Ohio State over (10) George Washington
(1) Syracuse over (5) Massachusetts
(3) Oregon over (2) Ohio State
(1) Syracuse over (3) Oregon
South Regional
(1) Michigan State over (16) Bryant
(8) Louisville over (9) Virginia
(12) Kansas State over (5) Dayton
(4) Florida over (13) North Dakota State
(11) Florida State over (6) Gonzaga
(3) San Diego State over (14) Drexel
(7) Creighton over (10) Tennessee
(2) Iowa State over (15) North Florida
(1) Michigan State over (8) Louisville
(12) Kansas State over (4) Florida
(3) San Diego State over (11) Florida State
(7) Creighton over (2) Iowa State
(1) Michigan State over (12) Kansas State)
(3) San Diego State over (7) Creighton
(1) Michigan State over (3) San Diego State
Midwest Regional
(1) Wisconsin over (16) Davidson
(9) UCLA over (8) VCU
(5) Kentucky over (12) Toledo
(4) Colorado over (13) UW Green Bay
(11) Harvard over (6) Iowa
(3) Oklahoma State over (14) Belmont
(7) North Carolina over (10) Michigan
(2) Wichita State over (15) UL Monroe
(1) Wisconsin over (9) UCLA
(5) Kentucky over (4) Colorado
(3) Oklahoma State over (11) Harvard
(2) Wichita State over (7) North Carolina
(5) Kentucky over (1) Wisconsin
(2) Wichita State over (3) Oklahoma State
(2) Wichita State over (5) Kentucky
Final Four:
(1) Syracuse over (5) Kansas
(2) Wichita State over (1) Michigan State
(1) Syracuse over (2) Wichita State
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: John Buck, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young & Jeff Baker
John Buck:
John Buck is definitely not a hall of famer but he is on one list. As a member of the 2011 Marlins, he did hit one of his 133 career home runs in a game that I watched against the Padres at Petco. From what I remember in that game was it was the first time in a few games that Stanton did not go yard and there were quite a few loud outs that would have been homers in many other ballparks. Also, I had the song "Blow me Away" by Breaking Benjamin in my head as that was the entrance music used by their closer at the time Heath Bell.
As to what hes done in the larger scope, he's a catcher that hits home runs but not much else. He doesn't draw very many walks and he's only thrown out 25% of base stealers in his career. Best case scenario would be him getting a one-year deal as a stop gap measure.
Through age-32, the most similar player to Buck is ex-Cubs & Braves catcher Jody Davis. After age-32 he played in 12 games and has a .233 OPS. It seems like we're continuing the theme of history indicating that many of these left over free agents may be very close to being done.
Mark Reynolds:
Reynolds has hit a whole lot of home runs in his day, he's also struck out....like a lot (leading the league in four consecutive years) After starting his career in Arizona, he's bounced around from team to team depending on which teams need a flawed power bat the most and are willing to take the hit revolving around very sub par defensive play (or happen to be in the American League where they can put him at the DH position).
With him being a journeyman the last couple years and all of the home runs he's hit, its easy to forget that he's still relatively young (age 29). Even though teams aren't lining up around the door to sign him, he could be a very good pickup at the right price. Baseball-reference indicates the most similar player through age 29 is ex-Ranger, Royal & Tiger Dean Palmer. In addition to sharing a name with my son (Dean is Zeplen's middle name) he did have two very good years once he hit the wrong side of 30. If history teaches us anything, Reynolds may also have a couple very good seasons in the tank for whoever is willing to take a flier on him.
Michael Young:
Young has had a nice career and would be in much higher demand if he was in his early 30s (even if his defense was historically bad). But he is getting old and i'm not exactly excited about the fact that the Brewers appear to have high interest in signing him to play first base (gotta get more power from first base).
He isn't getting any younger (no pun intended). The two most similar players through age-36 (Ray Durham and Joe Torre) both retired at that age and #3 Alan Trammell two very sub-par seasons.
Jeff Baker:
Whatever team he signs with will be his sixth. He's never really had a chance to play full time but he did hit very well in 175 plate appearances for the Rangers last year. I came into this thinking this was a product of the Rangers stadium but its not. He actually hit much better away from home (1.007 OPS vs. .779 OPS) at home. Through age-32 the most similar player was Herb Perry who didn't do much with the 177 plate appearances he got afterwards.
John Buck is definitely not a hall of famer but he is on one list. As a member of the 2011 Marlins, he did hit one of his 133 career home runs in a game that I watched against the Padres at Petco. From what I remember in that game was it was the first time in a few games that Stanton did not go yard and there were quite a few loud outs that would have been homers in many other ballparks. Also, I had the song "Blow me Away" by Breaking Benjamin in my head as that was the entrance music used by their closer at the time Heath Bell.
As to what hes done in the larger scope, he's a catcher that hits home runs but not much else. He doesn't draw very many walks and he's only thrown out 25% of base stealers in his career. Best case scenario would be him getting a one-year deal as a stop gap measure.
Through age-32, the most similar player to Buck is ex-Cubs & Braves catcher Jody Davis. After age-32 he played in 12 games and has a .233 OPS. It seems like we're continuing the theme of history indicating that many of these left over free agents may be very close to being done.
Mark Reynolds:
Reynolds has hit a whole lot of home runs in his day, he's also struck out....like a lot (leading the league in four consecutive years) After starting his career in Arizona, he's bounced around from team to team depending on which teams need a flawed power bat the most and are willing to take the hit revolving around very sub par defensive play (or happen to be in the American League where they can put him at the DH position).
With him being a journeyman the last couple years and all of the home runs he's hit, its easy to forget that he's still relatively young (age 29). Even though teams aren't lining up around the door to sign him, he could be a very good pickup at the right price. Baseball-reference indicates the most similar player through age 29 is ex-Ranger, Royal & Tiger Dean Palmer. In addition to sharing a name with my son (Dean is Zeplen's middle name) he did have two very good years once he hit the wrong side of 30. If history teaches us anything, Reynolds may also have a couple very good seasons in the tank for whoever is willing to take a flier on him.
Michael Young:
Young has had a nice career and would be in much higher demand if he was in his early 30s (even if his defense was historically bad). But he is getting old and i'm not exactly excited about the fact that the Brewers appear to have high interest in signing him to play first base (gotta get more power from first base).
He isn't getting any younger (no pun intended). The two most similar players through age-36 (Ray Durham and Joe Torre) both retired at that age and #3 Alan Trammell two very sub-par seasons.
Jeff Baker:
Whatever team he signs with will be his sixth. He's never really had a chance to play full time but he did hit very well in 175 plate appearances for the Rangers last year. I came into this thinking this was a product of the Rangers stadium but its not. He actually hit much better away from home (1.007 OPS vs. .779 OPS) at home. Through age-32 the most similar player was Herb Perry who didn't do much with the 177 plate appearances he got afterwards.
Monday, January 6, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales, Nate McLouth
It's the start of January and the peak insanity of hot stove season in baseball came through during the holiday season. That doesn't mean the hot stove fun has to end. The new recurring feature is going to be discussing these unsigned players, what they have to offer and maybe some predictions on where they end up. The list i'm working through is the free agent tracker on cbssports.com
I'm going to start by going through the position players:
All numbers referenced found on baseball-reference.com
Nelson Cruz:
Nelson Cruz has always been a player with a lot of talent and the ability to hit the ball very hard. He also comes with a lot of red flags. He's already been suspended under MLB's steorid policy (though that didn't stop Jhonny Peralta from getting a lucrative deal). He's injured constantly and has only played in more than 130 games in a season once. He pretty much hacks at everything as as his career OBP is a pedestrian .327.
His high offensive numbers are primarily a product of a very offense friendly ballpark (.912 career OPS at home versus .734 on the road). If he signed with a team that plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark the value of whatever contract he signs plus his career could go south very quickly (arguably this may have already started as his WAR has been less than 2 each of the last three years) and he's a defensive liability. By the way, he's also 33 and trying to get a pretty massive contract.
Through the age of 32 his most similar player was Henry Rodriguez who happened to play 25 games after turning 33. I don't think Cruz' career crashes and burns that quickly but he's definitely on the wrong side of his career.
On the same b-r list, the active players with the most similar profiles are Josh Willingham, Jayson Werth & Cody Ross. While he is trying to get a Jason Werth type monster contract teams seem to be shying away from it. I think the value falls hard enough to where he has to latch on with an incentive laden one year deal.
Stephen Drew:
The former Red Sox player is one of the few shortstops still available in free agency. Like Cruz, he has a history of injuries (hasn't played 150+ games in season since 2010). He did just hit the wrong side of 30 but the last two seasons he ended up on a playoff team (2012 A's & 2013 Red Sox). Offensively hes been ok by overall standards (98 OPS+) but rates a bit better playing an offensively challenged position while playing respectable defense (only one season of 8 does he have a negative dWAR).
One red flag (for teams that play in pitcher friendly ballparks) is the difference in performance between home & away (.803 OPS vs .725) as much of his career has been played in Arizona where Chase Ballpark is offense friendly.
Through age-30, the most similar player is ex-Braves & Cubs player Jeff Blauser. He had his best season at age 31 before ending with a couple underwhelming seasons with the Cubs. From this, it could be indicated that he may have another good season in him but it would be unwise to give him a deal beyond a couple years. For those looking for exploding red flags, the second most similar player through age 30 is Yuniesky Betancourt. I guess there is a reason hes still on the market.
Kendrys Morales:
Available First Base talent (hint, hint Brewers). He may not be the crazy good player he was in 2009 before injuring himself and he may be a defensive liability but he is still good at hitting the baseball (even in a pitcher friendly environment like Safeco and most importantly his name is not Yuniesky Betancourt or Alex Gonzales. Like Cruz & Drew, history may indicate that the end may be coming sooner rather than later. Through age-30 the most similar player for Morales was 1960s reds player Gordy Coleman. After the age of 30 he had 254 sub-replacement level plate appearances.
Nate McLouth:
McLouth's career has gone up down and all around. While his career OPS+ 100 rates him as an average player, hes had an unconventional route getting there. He started off looking like one of the few starts for the 2007/2008 Pirates only for his career to crash and burn after getting traded to the Braves but somewhat reviving said career after being traded to Baltimore. He may give whatever team he signs with some offense but don't expect him to help with the glove.
The most similar player profile through age 31 is Eric Hinske. After age-31 Hinske had a couple solid seasons of primary pinch hitting duty for the Braves (2010 and 2011) before struggling the last couple years.
While this doesn't bode well for McLouth's prospects history indicates he may be useful for a couple years if put into the right situation (which still makes things look better for him than many of the other free agents).
I'm going to start by going through the position players:
All numbers referenced found on baseball-reference.com
Nelson Cruz:
Nelson Cruz has always been a player with a lot of talent and the ability to hit the ball very hard. He also comes with a lot of red flags. He's already been suspended under MLB's steorid policy (though that didn't stop Jhonny Peralta from getting a lucrative deal). He's injured constantly and has only played in more than 130 games in a season once. He pretty much hacks at everything as as his career OBP is a pedestrian .327.
His high offensive numbers are primarily a product of a very offense friendly ballpark (.912 career OPS at home versus .734 on the road). If he signed with a team that plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark the value of whatever contract he signs plus his career could go south very quickly (arguably this may have already started as his WAR has been less than 2 each of the last three years) and he's a defensive liability. By the way, he's also 33 and trying to get a pretty massive contract.
Through the age of 32 his most similar player was Henry Rodriguez who happened to play 25 games after turning 33. I don't think Cruz' career crashes and burns that quickly but he's definitely on the wrong side of his career.
On the same b-r list, the active players with the most similar profiles are Josh Willingham, Jayson Werth & Cody Ross. While he is trying to get a Jason Werth type monster contract teams seem to be shying away from it. I think the value falls hard enough to where he has to latch on with an incentive laden one year deal.
Stephen Drew:
The former Red Sox player is one of the few shortstops still available in free agency. Like Cruz, he has a history of injuries (hasn't played 150+ games in season since 2010). He did just hit the wrong side of 30 but the last two seasons he ended up on a playoff team (2012 A's & 2013 Red Sox). Offensively hes been ok by overall standards (98 OPS+) but rates a bit better playing an offensively challenged position while playing respectable defense (only one season of 8 does he have a negative dWAR).
One red flag (for teams that play in pitcher friendly ballparks) is the difference in performance between home & away (.803 OPS vs .725) as much of his career has been played in Arizona where Chase Ballpark is offense friendly.
Through age-30, the most similar player is ex-Braves & Cubs player Jeff Blauser. He had his best season at age 31 before ending with a couple underwhelming seasons with the Cubs. From this, it could be indicated that he may have another good season in him but it would be unwise to give him a deal beyond a couple years. For those looking for exploding red flags, the second most similar player through age 30 is Yuniesky Betancourt. I guess there is a reason hes still on the market.
Kendrys Morales:
Available First Base talent (hint, hint Brewers). He may not be the crazy good player he was in 2009 before injuring himself and he may be a defensive liability but he is still good at hitting the baseball (even in a pitcher friendly environment like Safeco and most importantly his name is not Yuniesky Betancourt or Alex Gonzales. Like Cruz & Drew, history may indicate that the end may be coming sooner rather than later. Through age-30 the most similar player for Morales was 1960s reds player Gordy Coleman. After the age of 30 he had 254 sub-replacement level plate appearances.
Nate McLouth:
McLouth's career has gone up down and all around. While his career OPS+ 100 rates him as an average player, hes had an unconventional route getting there. He started off looking like one of the few starts for the 2007/2008 Pirates only for his career to crash and burn after getting traded to the Braves but somewhat reviving said career after being traded to Baltimore. He may give whatever team he signs with some offense but don't expect him to help with the glove.
The most similar player profile through age 31 is Eric Hinske. After age-31 Hinske had a couple solid seasons of primary pinch hitting duty for the Braves (2010 and 2011) before struggling the last couple years.
While this doesn't bode well for McLouth's prospects history indicates he may be useful for a couple years if put into the right situation (which still makes things look better for him than many of the other free agents).
Friday, January 3, 2014
College Basketball Weekend Look Ahead
Ahh, with the Hall of Fame Evaluations done, the College Football regular season done and Baseball still pretty far down the road, its time to find something else to write about which is leading to my first post about basketball and looking ahead to this weekend's action.
All, numbers, rankings, etc were found on ESPN.com
Friday:
Savannah State vs. (8) Baylor
For Baylor this is basically a scrimmage before moving on to the Big 12 portion of their schedule (which starts Tuesday with Iowa State) for Savannah State its another opportunity to maybe improve their strength of schedule which may or may not improve their RPI ranking of 337 (out of 351 teams). Savannah State has two wins, none of which are against Division I teams.
Pick: Baylor
Saturday:
Washington vs. (1) Arizona
Arizona is one of the few undefeated teams left in the country but have only seriously been tested against Duke. Washington has a pedestrian 8-5 record but a 198 RPI indicating they are little threat to upset Arizona or end up in the NCAA tournament. They've lost both games they've played against Top 25 competition (San Diego State & UConn).
Pick: Arizona
Miami (FL) vs. (2) Syracuse
We've got ourselves another undefeated squad in Syracuse that has already passed a couple of tough tests (Baylor & Villanova). The Hurricanes already have a conference loss on their hands and struggled against a weak non-conference slate going 805 and with an RPI of 107 it looks like it could be a long winter for them.
Pick: Syracuse
Nebraska vs. (3) Ohio State
Ohio State had a pretty weak non-conference slate with their only strong win coming against Marquette. Nebraska hasn't played any elite players and are coming at 8-4 but have an RPI of 49 indicating they could be a tournament team if they can at least play .500 ball in the big ten. However, they're gonna start behind the 8-ball being 0-1 in league play.
Pick: Ohio State
(5) Michigan State vs. Indiana
As expected, Michigan State has gotten off to a strong start with only one slip up against North Carolina. Indiana lost their Big 10 opener against Illinois and seems behind the pace compared to the last few years and with some work to do if they want to be back in the tourney.
Pick: Michigan State
(6) Oklahoma State vs Kansas State
Oklahoma State may be a bit under-rated at #6. They've scored themselves some nice wins against Memphis & Colorado and look primed to make a strong tourney run with Marcus Smart. Kansas State had a bad November but seem to have gotten things together in December and have a nice win over Gonzaga to their record but an RPI of 88 indicating they may struggle just to be a middle of the pack team.
Pick: Oklahoma State
(7) Duke vs. Notre Dame
Duke seems ranked this high more on historical success. Their best win was against Michigan and they've lost to the two other elite teams on their non-conference slate (Kansas & Arizona). Surprisingly, their RPI coming into conference play is at 35. Notre Dame is making their ACC debut, despite nearly handing Ohio State their first loss of the season. With a 74 RPI and the loss of Jerian Grant Notre Dame seems primed to struggle in their first ACC season.
Pick: Duke
Richmond vs. (12) Florida
This is Richmond's last game before moving on to this year's version of the Atlantic 10. They have a respectable 10-4 record but an RPI of 80 and a weaker Atlantic 10 conference. This seems very much like a NIT team. Florida may not come in with a perfect record (no shame in losing to Wisconsin & UConn) but they've also got nice wins over Kansas & Memphis. This looks to be a final tune up before Florida goes on to an SEC slate where they should be a top-3 team.
Pick: Florida
(13) Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
Iowa State is one of the last undefeated teams left. While they are bound to lose some games in a strong Big 12, they still look primed to be one of the better teams, if/when they lose I doubt its going to come at the hands of a Texas Tech team that already has a 141 RPI and tied w/West Virginia for the worst non-conference record in the Big 12.
Pick: Iowa State
(14) Louisville vs. Rutgers
Louisville won their first AAC game against UCF the other night (something that their football team could not do) and start their national championship defense in a weakened conference. Rutgers comes in with a 7-7 record and losses to several mid-major schools and a 225 RPI. This one's not even close.
Pick: Louisville
(17) UConn vs. SMU
While UConn did score a win over Florida in non-conference play, they started league play with a loss to Houston and a 36 RPI which could put them on the bubble come February. SMU is at 10-3 but with no marquee wins an a 58 RPI. The outcome of this game may increase in importance as the season progresses.
Pick: UConn
Cincinnati vs. (18) Memphis
Cincinnati may not be ranked but could be with a win here. Their 34 RPI indicates that they could very much be in the mix in the AAC. Memphis for the most part has taken care of business against teams they should beat but not quite sold on them dominating in the AAC. I think Cincinnati gets themselves a good win here.
Pick: Cincinnati
Miami (OH) vs. (23) UMass
UMass has their final non-conference tune up against one of the bottom feeders in the MAC before commencing on their Atlantic 10 Schedule. While they are barely nationally ranked, the computers seem to think this team is pretty legit (#1 RPI, #7 BPI).
Pick: UMass
Pacific vs. (24) Gonzaga
Pacific has been one of the better Big West teams historically and have moved to the West Coast Conference. Their first game was a loss to St. Mary's and this match up against Gonzaga won't be much easier. The computers seem to be okay with Pacific with a 61 RPI but they will need to get some good wins to be seriously in the tourney conversation. Gonzaga is one team where the humans and computers agree on ranking (#24) but they didn't get any major marquee wins in non-conference but look on their way to a dominating performance with a 2-0 conference start so far (though a #1 seeding again looks to be out of the question.
Pick: Gonzaga
Long Beach State vs. (25) Missouri
Long Beach State has had a very intense non conference schedule and did get themselves a win over USC for what its worth before they move on to a much less challenging Big West slate. Missouri is barely ranked despite one blemish (narrow loss to Illinois) but seem to be in good shape to compete in a fairly weak SEC.
Pick: Missouri
Sunday:
(22) Iowa vs. (4) Wisconsin
Both teams have exceeded expectations so far, Iowa comes in at #22 and the computer numbers indicate that they are legit, Wisconsin is still undefeated and are off to one of their best starts ever. I think Iowa can compete with them but the home field advantage in this game is likely a bit much to overcome.
Pick: Wisconsin
Northern Iowa vs. (8) Wichita State
Wichita State is undefeated and has high aspirations after last year's final four run. Every team is gonna give Wichita State a run for their money. I think this game may be close for awhile (they did take fellow undefeated team Iowa State to overtime) but there's no way they win on the road.
Pick: Wichita State
(10) Oregon vs. (20) Colorado
Oregon is undefeated but have needed to go to OT twice to maintain that claim and appear to be for real. Colorado has been strong overall and has a nice win over Kansas to their record. They seem to be legit competition to Oregon to determine who will finish second to Arizona in the Pac-12. I think Colorado pulls this one out.
Pick: Colorado
Providence vs. (11) Villanova
If nothing else, Providence has played some close games, already going to OT three times this year but as a threat to pull off the upset, not so much with an 84 RPI. Villanova also knows a thing or two about playin on the edge with two OT victories to their credit (Iowa & Butler). In a Big East league with very few strong teams, they look poised to be the strongest of the bunch.
Pick: Villanova
(21) San Diego St. vs (16) Kansas
Interesting non-conference battle. San Diego State's only blemish is a 9 point loss to Arizona and they have nice wins over Creighton & Marquette on the mantle.Kansas looks to be one of the stronger Big 12 teams despite a few early losses. I think Kansas will have the better year but I think San Diego St. pulls off the upset on Sunday.
Pick: San Diego State
(19) North Carolina vs Wake Forest
North Carolina is another team I think will get stronger as the season goes on but seem a bit vulnerable at this stage (with losses to Belmont & UAB) to their record. Wake Forest has shown that they may not be great but aren't a pushover either (they only lost to Kansas by 9), I think they get themselves their best win of the season on Sunday.
Pick: Wake Forest
All, numbers, rankings, etc were found on ESPN.com
Friday:
Savannah State vs. (8) Baylor
For Baylor this is basically a scrimmage before moving on to the Big 12 portion of their schedule (which starts Tuesday with Iowa State) for Savannah State its another opportunity to maybe improve their strength of schedule which may or may not improve their RPI ranking of 337 (out of 351 teams). Savannah State has two wins, none of which are against Division I teams.
Pick: Baylor
Saturday:
Washington vs. (1) Arizona
Arizona is one of the few undefeated teams left in the country but have only seriously been tested against Duke. Washington has a pedestrian 8-5 record but a 198 RPI indicating they are little threat to upset Arizona or end up in the NCAA tournament. They've lost both games they've played against Top 25 competition (San Diego State & UConn).
Pick: Arizona
Miami (FL) vs. (2) Syracuse
We've got ourselves another undefeated squad in Syracuse that has already passed a couple of tough tests (Baylor & Villanova). The Hurricanes already have a conference loss on their hands and struggled against a weak non-conference slate going 805 and with an RPI of 107 it looks like it could be a long winter for them.
Pick: Syracuse
Nebraska vs. (3) Ohio State
Ohio State had a pretty weak non-conference slate with their only strong win coming against Marquette. Nebraska hasn't played any elite players and are coming at 8-4 but have an RPI of 49 indicating they could be a tournament team if they can at least play .500 ball in the big ten. However, they're gonna start behind the 8-ball being 0-1 in league play.
Pick: Ohio State
(5) Michigan State vs. Indiana
As expected, Michigan State has gotten off to a strong start with only one slip up against North Carolina. Indiana lost their Big 10 opener against Illinois and seems behind the pace compared to the last few years and with some work to do if they want to be back in the tourney.
Pick: Michigan State
(6) Oklahoma State vs Kansas State
Oklahoma State may be a bit under-rated at #6. They've scored themselves some nice wins against Memphis & Colorado and look primed to make a strong tourney run with Marcus Smart. Kansas State had a bad November but seem to have gotten things together in December and have a nice win over Gonzaga to their record but an RPI of 88 indicating they may struggle just to be a middle of the pack team.
Pick: Oklahoma State
(7) Duke vs. Notre Dame
Duke seems ranked this high more on historical success. Their best win was against Michigan and they've lost to the two other elite teams on their non-conference slate (Kansas & Arizona). Surprisingly, their RPI coming into conference play is at 35. Notre Dame is making their ACC debut, despite nearly handing Ohio State their first loss of the season. With a 74 RPI and the loss of Jerian Grant Notre Dame seems primed to struggle in their first ACC season.
Pick: Duke
Richmond vs. (12) Florida
This is Richmond's last game before moving on to this year's version of the Atlantic 10. They have a respectable 10-4 record but an RPI of 80 and a weaker Atlantic 10 conference. This seems very much like a NIT team. Florida may not come in with a perfect record (no shame in losing to Wisconsin & UConn) but they've also got nice wins over Kansas & Memphis. This looks to be a final tune up before Florida goes on to an SEC slate where they should be a top-3 team.
Pick: Florida
(13) Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
Iowa State is one of the last undefeated teams left. While they are bound to lose some games in a strong Big 12, they still look primed to be one of the better teams, if/when they lose I doubt its going to come at the hands of a Texas Tech team that already has a 141 RPI and tied w/West Virginia for the worst non-conference record in the Big 12.
Pick: Iowa State
(14) Louisville vs. Rutgers
Louisville won their first AAC game against UCF the other night (something that their football team could not do) and start their national championship defense in a weakened conference. Rutgers comes in with a 7-7 record and losses to several mid-major schools and a 225 RPI. This one's not even close.
Pick: Louisville
(17) UConn vs. SMU
While UConn did score a win over Florida in non-conference play, they started league play with a loss to Houston and a 36 RPI which could put them on the bubble come February. SMU is at 10-3 but with no marquee wins an a 58 RPI. The outcome of this game may increase in importance as the season progresses.
Pick: UConn
Cincinnati vs. (18) Memphis
Cincinnati may not be ranked but could be with a win here. Their 34 RPI indicates that they could very much be in the mix in the AAC. Memphis for the most part has taken care of business against teams they should beat but not quite sold on them dominating in the AAC. I think Cincinnati gets themselves a good win here.
Pick: Cincinnati
Miami (OH) vs. (23) UMass
UMass has their final non-conference tune up against one of the bottom feeders in the MAC before commencing on their Atlantic 10 Schedule. While they are barely nationally ranked, the computers seem to think this team is pretty legit (#1 RPI, #7 BPI).
Pick: UMass
Pacific vs. (24) Gonzaga
Pacific has been one of the better Big West teams historically and have moved to the West Coast Conference. Their first game was a loss to St. Mary's and this match up against Gonzaga won't be much easier. The computers seem to be okay with Pacific with a 61 RPI but they will need to get some good wins to be seriously in the tourney conversation. Gonzaga is one team where the humans and computers agree on ranking (#24) but they didn't get any major marquee wins in non-conference but look on their way to a dominating performance with a 2-0 conference start so far (though a #1 seeding again looks to be out of the question.
Pick: Gonzaga
Long Beach State vs. (25) Missouri
Long Beach State has had a very intense non conference schedule and did get themselves a win over USC for what its worth before they move on to a much less challenging Big West slate. Missouri is barely ranked despite one blemish (narrow loss to Illinois) but seem to be in good shape to compete in a fairly weak SEC.
Pick: Missouri
Sunday:
(22) Iowa vs. (4) Wisconsin
Both teams have exceeded expectations so far, Iowa comes in at #22 and the computer numbers indicate that they are legit, Wisconsin is still undefeated and are off to one of their best starts ever. I think Iowa can compete with them but the home field advantage in this game is likely a bit much to overcome.
Pick: Wisconsin
Northern Iowa vs. (8) Wichita State
Wichita State is undefeated and has high aspirations after last year's final four run. Every team is gonna give Wichita State a run for their money. I think this game may be close for awhile (they did take fellow undefeated team Iowa State to overtime) but there's no way they win on the road.
Pick: Wichita State
(10) Oregon vs. (20) Colorado
Oregon is undefeated but have needed to go to OT twice to maintain that claim and appear to be for real. Colorado has been strong overall and has a nice win over Kansas to their record. They seem to be legit competition to Oregon to determine who will finish second to Arizona in the Pac-12. I think Colorado pulls this one out.
Pick: Colorado
Providence vs. (11) Villanova
If nothing else, Providence has played some close games, already going to OT three times this year but as a threat to pull off the upset, not so much with an 84 RPI. Villanova also knows a thing or two about playin on the edge with two OT victories to their credit (Iowa & Butler). In a Big East league with very few strong teams, they look poised to be the strongest of the bunch.
Pick: Villanova
(21) San Diego St. vs (16) Kansas
Interesting non-conference battle. San Diego State's only blemish is a 9 point loss to Arizona and they have nice wins over Creighton & Marquette on the mantle.Kansas looks to be one of the stronger Big 12 teams despite a few early losses. I think Kansas will have the better year but I think San Diego St. pulls off the upset on Sunday.
Pick: San Diego State
(19) North Carolina vs Wake Forest
North Carolina is another team I think will get stronger as the season goes on but seem a bit vulnerable at this stage (with losses to Belmont & UAB) to their record. Wake Forest has shown that they may not be great but aren't a pushover either (they only lost to Kansas by 9), I think they get themselves their best win of the season on Sunday.
Pick: Wake Forest
Thursday, January 2, 2014
NFL Playoff Preview: Man vs. Machine
With the weekend slate of NFL wild care games ahead of us, I decided to see who is better at predicting these games Me (and my opinions) or Machine (whatifsports.com) simulation.
AFC:
Colts vs. Chiefs
For the Colts, its sort of hard to tell which team is going to show up, the good Colts that can go head to head with the elite teams in the league or the one that loses head scratching games to non-playoff teams. I think Andrew Luck may be in store for his first playoff win. Initially, I thought that the Chiefs were in line for the win but I think the players may be a bit rusty and having all the starters being rested may come back to haunt them.
My Pick: Chiefs
What If Pick: Chiefs 13 Colts 10 (OT)
Bengals vs. Chargers
The Bengals have become playoff regulars but i'm not sure I trust the combination of Andy Dalton & Marvin Lewis in a playoff game. The Chargers have made some strides in the first year with a head coach NOT named Norv Turner. However, the barely beat the Chiefs B-Squad and even then they needed some missed field goals and bad officiating work to do so.
My Pick: Bengals
What If Pick: Chargers 20 Bengals 10
NFC:
Eagles vs. Saints
The Eagles are one of those teams that went through their struggles but made it into the playoffs and are playing at a high-level at the right time. The Saints seem to need the Superdome to work their magic.
My Pick: Eagles
What If Pick: Eagles 27 Saints 13
Packers vs. 49ers
The Packers (despite shoddy defense and 1/2 a season worth of mediocre to bad qb play) find themselves in the playoffs. With Aaron Rodgers anything is possible. They get a tough match up with their nemesis the 49ers who have beaten them the last three times and seem to dominate them and outsmart Dom Capers like clockwork. As fan as a ride it has been as a Packers fan, bottom line is that the 49ers are the better team.
My Pick: 49ers
What If Pick: 49ers 19 Packers 10
Here's how I think the other rounds would play off as of now:
Broncos over Chiefs
Patriots over Bengals
Patriots over Broncos
Seahawks over 49ers
Panthers over Eagles
Seahawks over Panthers
Patriots over Seahawks
Here's how the What If Sports simulations I did played out:
Broncos 31 Chargers 17
Patriots 27 Chiefs 15
Patriots 21 Broncos 16
49ers 17 Seahawks 12
Eagles 24 Panthers 21--Panthers tied this on 6 yd run by Cam Newton with 35 seconds left only for Alex Henery to nail game winning field goal as time expired
49ers 27 Eagles 17
Patriots 13 49ers 10 with the Super Bowl being decided on a 32 yd field goal from Gostowski w/6:30 left
AFC:
Colts vs. Chiefs
For the Colts, its sort of hard to tell which team is going to show up, the good Colts that can go head to head with the elite teams in the league or the one that loses head scratching games to non-playoff teams. I think Andrew Luck may be in store for his first playoff win. Initially, I thought that the Chiefs were in line for the win but I think the players may be a bit rusty and having all the starters being rested may come back to haunt them.
My Pick: Chiefs
What If Pick: Chiefs 13 Colts 10 (OT)
Bengals vs. Chargers
The Bengals have become playoff regulars but i'm not sure I trust the combination of Andy Dalton & Marvin Lewis in a playoff game. The Chargers have made some strides in the first year with a head coach NOT named Norv Turner. However, the barely beat the Chiefs B-Squad and even then they needed some missed field goals and bad officiating work to do so.
My Pick: Bengals
What If Pick: Chargers 20 Bengals 10
NFC:
Eagles vs. Saints
The Eagles are one of those teams that went through their struggles but made it into the playoffs and are playing at a high-level at the right time. The Saints seem to need the Superdome to work their magic.
My Pick: Eagles
What If Pick: Eagles 27 Saints 13
Packers vs. 49ers
The Packers (despite shoddy defense and 1/2 a season worth of mediocre to bad qb play) find themselves in the playoffs. With Aaron Rodgers anything is possible. They get a tough match up with their nemesis the 49ers who have beaten them the last three times and seem to dominate them and outsmart Dom Capers like clockwork. As fan as a ride it has been as a Packers fan, bottom line is that the 49ers are the better team.
My Pick: 49ers
What If Pick: 49ers 19 Packers 10
Here's how I think the other rounds would play off as of now:
Broncos over Chiefs
Patriots over Bengals
Patriots over Broncos
Seahawks over 49ers
Panthers over Eagles
Seahawks over Panthers
Patriots over Seahawks
Here's how the What If Sports simulations I did played out:
Broncos 31 Chargers 17
Patriots 27 Chiefs 15
Patriots 21 Broncos 16
49ers 17 Seahawks 12
Eagles 24 Panthers 21--Panthers tied this on 6 yd run by Cam Newton with 35 seconds left only for Alex Henery to nail game winning field goal as time expired
49ers 27 Eagles 17
Patriots 13 49ers 10 with the Super Bowl being decided on a 32 yd field goal from Gostowski w/6:30 left
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