It's the start of January and the peak insanity of hot stove season in baseball came through during the holiday season. That doesn't mean the hot stove fun has to end. The new recurring feature is going to be discussing these unsigned players, what they have to offer and maybe some predictions on where they end up. The list i'm working through is the free agent tracker on cbssports.com
I'm going to start by going through the position players:
All numbers referenced found on baseball-reference.com
Nelson Cruz:
Nelson Cruz has always been a player with a lot of talent and the ability to hit the ball very hard. He also comes with a lot of red flags. He's already been suspended under MLB's steorid policy (though that didn't stop Jhonny Peralta from getting a lucrative deal). He's injured constantly and has only played in more than 130 games in a season once. He pretty much hacks at everything as as his career OBP is a pedestrian .327.
His high offensive numbers are primarily a product of a very offense friendly ballpark (.912 career OPS at home versus .734 on the road). If he signed with a team that plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark the value of whatever contract he signs plus his career could go south very quickly (arguably this may have already started as his WAR has been less than 2 each of the last three years) and he's a defensive liability. By the way, he's also 33 and trying to get a pretty massive contract.
Through the age of 32 his most similar player was Henry Rodriguez who happened to play 25 games after turning 33. I don't think Cruz' career crashes and burns that quickly but he's definitely on the wrong side of his career.
On the same b-r list, the active players with the most similar profiles are Josh Willingham, Jayson Werth & Cody Ross. While he is trying to get a Jason Werth type monster contract teams seem to be shying away from it. I think the value falls hard enough to where he has to latch on with an incentive laden one year deal.
Stephen Drew:
The former Red Sox player is one of the few shortstops still available in free agency. Like Cruz, he has a history of injuries (hasn't played 150+ games in season since 2010). He did just hit the wrong side of 30 but the last two seasons he ended up on a playoff team (2012 A's & 2013 Red Sox). Offensively hes been ok by overall standards (98 OPS+) but rates a bit better playing an offensively challenged position while playing respectable defense (only one season of 8 does he have a negative dWAR).
One red flag (for teams that play in pitcher friendly ballparks) is the difference in performance between home & away (.803 OPS vs .725) as much of his career has been played in Arizona where Chase Ballpark is offense friendly.
Through age-30, the most similar player is ex-Braves & Cubs player Jeff Blauser. He had his best season at age 31 before ending with a couple underwhelming seasons with the Cubs. From this, it could be indicated that he may have another good season in him but it would be unwise to give him a deal beyond a couple years. For those looking for exploding red flags, the second most similar player through age 30 is Yuniesky Betancourt. I guess there is a reason hes still on the market.
Kendrys Morales:
Available First Base talent (hint, hint Brewers). He may not be the crazy good player he was in 2009 before injuring himself and he may be a defensive liability but he is still good at hitting the baseball (even in a pitcher friendly environment like Safeco and most importantly his name is not Yuniesky Betancourt or Alex Gonzales. Like Cruz & Drew, history may indicate that the end may be coming sooner rather than later. Through age-30 the most similar player for Morales was 1960s reds player Gordy Coleman. After the age of 30 he had 254 sub-replacement level plate appearances.
Nate McLouth:
McLouth's career has gone up down and all around. While his career OPS+ 100 rates him as an average player, hes had an unconventional route getting there. He started off looking like one of the few starts for the 2007/2008 Pirates only for his career to crash and burn after getting traded to the Braves but somewhat reviving said career after being traded to Baltimore. He may give whatever team he signs with some offense but don't expect him to help with the glove.
The most similar player profile through age 31 is Eric Hinske. After age-31 Hinske had a couple solid seasons of primary pinch hitting duty for the Braves (2010 and 2011) before struggling the last couple years.
While this doesn't bode well for McLouth's prospects history indicates he may be useful for a couple years if put into the right situation (which still makes things look better for him than many of the other free agents).
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