The Super Bowl is coming up in a few days and I figured i'd put in my two cents.
Cold Weather:
The fact that the Super Bowl is being played in the elements and in cold weather is probably one of the bigger non-controversies out there. People seem to be treating it like a football game has never been played in cold weather before even though it happens all the time (even if Peyton Manning historically struggles in cold weather).
Broncos:
Even if a lot of people watching don't know much about football, they know Peyton Manning from all the commercials that he's done. The reason people seem to be rooting for the Broncos seems tied to the fact that they happen to be the one team Richard Sherman plays for. The reason's for rooting against the Broncos is maybe people have gotten pre-Peyton Manning burnout in anticipation for the mediocre sitcom/movies he'd inevitably be in after he decides to retire.
Seahawks:
Personally, i'm rooting for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. First of all, they beat the 49ers in the playoffs (something the Packers are apparently incapable of). Also, while a lot of people are upset about Richard Sherman's post-game interview, i'm not one of them. The worst thing that could be said about it was that it was a bit bizarre. On the scale of bad things that pro athletes do, the interview ranks pretty low.
The one thing that I like about Sherman (other than the fact that he called out Skip Bayless on national television which gives him a pass for a lot of things in my book) is that he's honest, he's going to speak his mind and he doesn't reach for the book of cliches when the cameras are rolling. It's definitely a refreshing dose of honesty (it also helps that he's able to back everything up with his play on the field)
Prediction:
I think this game will be a defensive struggle with the Seahawks coming out on top 17-10 and Richard Sherman earning himself the Super Bowl MVP.
As i've done with the rest of the playoffs, I did a simulation on whatifsports.com which gave me the following result:
The simulation strongly disagrees with me and predicts a 31-6 Broncos win with Peyton Manning earning himself a Super Bowl MVP (along with like a million endorsements).
Friday, January 31, 2014
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Mitchell Boggs, Roy Oswalt, Mike Gonzalez, Rich Hill
Mitchell Boggs:
Where He's Been:
He had a few good seasons in St. Louis but 2013 was an utter disaster. After getting off to a start that was beyond terrible in St. Louis he ended up with the Rockies where he had a decent ERA+ in nine appearances but still had some underlying red flags such as a 1 SO/BB Ratio.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Probably going to be signed to a minor-league deal. The positive is that he's still relatively young (he turns 30 in February) and he's not that far off from a very strong 2012 season (173 ERA+). Could provide a good return as his value has pretty much bottomed out.
Comparison Analysis:
His closest comparison through age 29 was Burke Badenhop. He's coming off his age 30 season which he spent with the Brewers. While the Brewers were very reluctant to put him in the game when it was close, he did put up decent numbers when he played. Boggs probably gets different results as the two players are on different trajectories. While Boggs had one great season and 2013 results bottomed out, Badenhop has been consistently about an average pitcher without the extreme peaks and valleys that Boggs has gone through the last couple years.
Roy Oswalt:
Where He's Been:
Oswalt's free agency status would have been a much bigger deal if it was 10 years ago or even five. However, his on the field production has taken a very sharp nosedive over the last couple seasons.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Somebody may take a chance on him but primarily because of the brand name and his performance from seemingly years ago. Maybe he can recapture some of his past greatness but it seems doubtful at this point.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 35 is Bret Saberhagen. After his age 35 season he made three underwhelming starts for the 2001 Red Sox. I think the rest of Oswalt's career has a similar outcome. Someone will give him some starts hoping he has something left in the tank but getting very little in return.
Mike Gonzalez:
Where He's Been:
Whatever team he ends up with, it will be the seventh of his career. When he pitched for other teams, I would always be distracted by the motion he used when he threw the ball. When he pitched for the Brewers last year, I would get distracted by how mediocre the results were more often than not.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Despite staggering to a 85 ERA+ last year, he should still get bullpen spot somewhere. There would be concern in that he has been less effective as he's gotten older than early in his career (he still sports a 134 career ERA+) and his SO/BB ratio is still within career ranges, but it doesn't help that he's on the wrong side of 35.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 35 is Steve Mingori. He also under-acheived during his age 35 season pulling in a 74 ERA+ and never pitc
hed in bigs again after that season. I think Gonzalez probably gets himself a couple more years in the league but anything beyond that would be surprising.
Rich Hill:
Where He's Been:
He had some success with the Cubs in '06 & '07 but has drifted around from team to team.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Somehow, he got 63 appearances with a pretty good Indians team despite not coming close to pitching well (60 ERA+). That combined with age (33) could make it pretty difficult to find regular work for 2014.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 33 is Brian Tallet. Like Hill, Tallet had a terrible age 33 season and hasn't pitched in the bigs since. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens for Hill's career.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
Where He's Been:
He had a few good seasons in St. Louis but 2013 was an utter disaster. After getting off to a start that was beyond terrible in St. Louis he ended up with the Rockies where he had a decent ERA+ in nine appearances but still had some underlying red flags such as a 1 SO/BB Ratio.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Probably going to be signed to a minor-league deal. The positive is that he's still relatively young (he turns 30 in February) and he's not that far off from a very strong 2012 season (173 ERA+). Could provide a good return as his value has pretty much bottomed out.
Comparison Analysis:
His closest comparison through age 29 was Burke Badenhop. He's coming off his age 30 season which he spent with the Brewers. While the Brewers were very reluctant to put him in the game when it was close, he did put up decent numbers when he played. Boggs probably gets different results as the two players are on different trajectories. While Boggs had one great season and 2013 results bottomed out, Badenhop has been consistently about an average pitcher without the extreme peaks and valleys that Boggs has gone through the last couple years.
Roy Oswalt:
Where He's Been:
Oswalt's free agency status would have been a much bigger deal if it was 10 years ago or even five. However, his on the field production has taken a very sharp nosedive over the last couple seasons.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Somebody may take a chance on him but primarily because of the brand name and his performance from seemingly years ago. Maybe he can recapture some of his past greatness but it seems doubtful at this point.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 35 is Bret Saberhagen. After his age 35 season he made three underwhelming starts for the 2001 Red Sox. I think the rest of Oswalt's career has a similar outcome. Someone will give him some starts hoping he has something left in the tank but getting very little in return.
Mike Gonzalez:
Where He's Been:
Whatever team he ends up with, it will be the seventh of his career. When he pitched for other teams, I would always be distracted by the motion he used when he threw the ball. When he pitched for the Brewers last year, I would get distracted by how mediocre the results were more often than not.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Despite staggering to a 85 ERA+ last year, he should still get bullpen spot somewhere. There would be concern in that he has been less effective as he's gotten older than early in his career (he still sports a 134 career ERA+) and his SO/BB ratio is still within career ranges, but it doesn't help that he's on the wrong side of 35.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 35 is Steve Mingori. He also under-acheived during his age 35 season pulling in a 74 ERA+ and never pitc
hed in bigs again after that season. I think Gonzalez probably gets himself a couple more years in the league but anything beyond that would be surprising.
Rich Hill:
Where He's Been:
He had some success with the Cubs in '06 & '07 but has drifted around from team to team.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Somehow, he got 63 appearances with a pretty good Indians team despite not coming close to pitching well (60 ERA+). That combined with age (33) could make it pretty difficult to find regular work for 2014.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 33 is Brian Tallet. Like Hill, Tallet had a terrible age 33 season and hasn't pitched in the bigs since. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens for Hill's career.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Brandon Lyon, Eric Bedard, Matt Guerrier, Jon Garland
Brandon Lyon:
Where He's Been:
In his career, he's been with 7 different teams going on team number 8. His career rhythm has him having one or two good seasons followed by a terrible season, something that can't repeat forever.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He's coming off one of those terrible seasons with the Mets (72 ERA+), and he's 34 years old. In other words, his value is at an all-time low as he was released twice within a month last year. I'm not sure if he'll get even a minor-league invite to spring training and have the chance to prove that his 1.63 WHIP was a fluke.
Comparative Analysis:
His closest comparison through age 33 is Stan Belinda. Belinda's best years were literally behind him at this point as he had a 72 ERA+ with the 2000 Rockies & Braves and he never pitched in the MLB again. For Lyon, there is a reasonable chance we have seen the last of him and probably has an uphill battle to climb to having a bounce back season in 2014.
Eric Bedard:
Where He's Been:
Several different places but primarily the disabled list. He had a promising start to his career in Baltimore but much of that promise has been derailed by injuries. The last three seasons he has pitched 125+ innings but his effectiveness has been decreasing.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He'll probably be lucky to start the season in the bigs. He's coming off his worst two seasons in his career and he's not getting any younger (34). Last year, he was struggling to stay in the Astros rotation and that team is beyond bad. It's likely a minor-league deal for him.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 34 is Chris Capuano who is in fact coming off his age 34 season and is also currently a free agent after pitching the last couple seasons for the Dodgers. The end of Bedard's career is likely to come sooner rather than later.
Matt Guerrier:
Where He's Been:
He's had a nice run as an effective reliever, primarily with the Twins. Though he has been closer to an average pitcher as he's moved into his early-30s.
What 2014 Has In Store:
I think he's got a good shot to still pitch productively out of the bullpen. He got moved from the Dodgers to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol last year. While he did struggle with the Dodgers, he pitched very strongly in 15 appearances for the Cubs. Unlike, Marmol there are things in the numbers such as a WHIP close to his career average and no fluctuations in control that indicate he could be a low-risk/medium-reward signing.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 34 is Jason Frasor. His story is still continuing as his age 35 season (2013) with Texas was a very strong one (161 ERA+) which was his second best season in his career. I think Guerrier sticks around for at least a few more years of close to league average production.
Jon Garland:
Where He's Been:
After a decent stretch of production with the White Sox, he's been bouncing from team to team since 2008 and his 2013 season ended in early June when he got released by the Rockies.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Probably not on a major league roster. He may get a minor-league deal from someone if they have enough injury/effectiveness issues from their starters but nothing seems like a guarantee.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 33 was Scott Erickson who missed his age 33 season due to injury.
While he did get in 58 games over four seasons after this point, he wasn't particularly good and the numbers indicate he was a shell of his former self. If Garland gets similar opportunity this year, my guess is that he would have similar results.
Where He's Been:
In his career, he's been with 7 different teams going on team number 8. His career rhythm has him having one or two good seasons followed by a terrible season, something that can't repeat forever.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He's coming off one of those terrible seasons with the Mets (72 ERA+), and he's 34 years old. In other words, his value is at an all-time low as he was released twice within a month last year. I'm not sure if he'll get even a minor-league invite to spring training and have the chance to prove that his 1.63 WHIP was a fluke.
Comparative Analysis:
His closest comparison through age 33 is Stan Belinda. Belinda's best years were literally behind him at this point as he had a 72 ERA+ with the 2000 Rockies & Braves and he never pitched in the MLB again. For Lyon, there is a reasonable chance we have seen the last of him and probably has an uphill battle to climb to having a bounce back season in 2014.
Eric Bedard:
Where He's Been:
Several different places but primarily the disabled list. He had a promising start to his career in Baltimore but much of that promise has been derailed by injuries. The last three seasons he has pitched 125+ innings but his effectiveness has been decreasing.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He'll probably be lucky to start the season in the bigs. He's coming off his worst two seasons in his career and he's not getting any younger (34). Last year, he was struggling to stay in the Astros rotation and that team is beyond bad. It's likely a minor-league deal for him.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 34 is Chris Capuano who is in fact coming off his age 34 season and is also currently a free agent after pitching the last couple seasons for the Dodgers. The end of Bedard's career is likely to come sooner rather than later.
Matt Guerrier:
Where He's Been:
He's had a nice run as an effective reliever, primarily with the Twins. Though he has been closer to an average pitcher as he's moved into his early-30s.
What 2014 Has In Store:
I think he's got a good shot to still pitch productively out of the bullpen. He got moved from the Dodgers to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol last year. While he did struggle with the Dodgers, he pitched very strongly in 15 appearances for the Cubs. Unlike, Marmol there are things in the numbers such as a WHIP close to his career average and no fluctuations in control that indicate he could be a low-risk/medium-reward signing.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 34 is Jason Frasor. His story is still continuing as his age 35 season (2013) with Texas was a very strong one (161 ERA+) which was his second best season in his career. I think Guerrier sticks around for at least a few more years of close to league average production.
Jon Garland:
Where He's Been:
After a decent stretch of production with the White Sox, he's been bouncing from team to team since 2008 and his 2013 season ended in early June when he got released by the Rockies.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Probably not on a major league roster. He may get a minor-league deal from someone if they have enough injury/effectiveness issues from their starters but nothing seems like a guarantee.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 33 was Scott Erickson who missed his age 33 season due to injury.
While he did get in 58 games over four seasons after this point, he wasn't particularly good and the numbers indicate he was a shell of his former self. If Garland gets similar opportunity this year, my guess is that he would have similar results.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Marmol, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Madson
After missing Monday, back to the routine and with that back to discussing free agents. Speaking of backs, I threw mine out on Friday and have been mostly out of commission the last few days. Thankfully, Heather was there to help make things better and take care of me and that Zeplen was there with some moral support and the smile that he always has on his face :). I'm still not 100% but at least things are improving, now to talk about some free agents:
Kyle Farnsworth:
Where He's Been:
Pretty much everywhere. Since leaving the Cubs after 2004, he's gone from team to team and for the most part helped with their bullpen efforts. His 2013 started rough as he struggled during his time with the Rays but he did pitch very well in some late-season appearances for the Pirates.
What 2014 Has in Store:
Likely ending up in someone else's bullpen. His last really strong season was in 2011 when he filled in as closer for the Rays. He's been below average the last couple seasons and if that trend continues his career could be pretty close to being done (it doesn't help hat he's already 37).
Comparison Analysis:
His most comparable player through age 37 is Tim Worrell. After age 37, Worrell pitched 23 games and had very poor results doing so (1.72 WHIP, 61 ERA+). My gut feeling is that Farnsworth gets himself into some big league action this year but there's a high possibility he struggles and that 2014 could be his last season.
Carlos Marmol:
Where He's Been:
Mostly with the Cubs. He had a few really good seasons to start his career but those days had apparently passed him by in 2012 when I had him on my Fantasy Baseball team and he went on to blow a bunch of saves. After the Cubs had seen enough, he ended up on the Dodgers in a move that was mocked by many. While some of the surface stats were okay (143 ERA+), red flags were still abound as his WHIP was north of 1.5 and he had a BB/9 of 8.
What 2014 Has in Store:
More likely than not, Marmol will be given a chance somewhere. He's still relatively young (31) and he still has the ability to strike out batters (10.8 SO/9) in 2013. Likely, where ever he ends up, he's not going to pitch very well, he may get some strike outs but nothing indicates that the control issues that have plagued him have been resolved.
Comparison Analysis:
Through age 30, the most similar pitcher to him is Braden Looper. After age 30, he had one more solid season of relief pitching before being a starting pitcher for the last three seasons (including one bad season with the Brewers that was a compelling argument against using win-loss records to evaluate pitchers). Either way not a likely scenario for Marmol as I don't see him ever being converted to a starting pitcher or being in the MLB for more than a year or two if the control issues do not get resolved.
Octavio Dotel:
Where He's Been:
Pretty much everywhere. It would almost be easier to list the teams he hasn't played for. During his career, he has been successful as a reliever after some initial struggles as a starter. He had continued to perform well as he got into his late 30s but the 2013 season was a wash as that season was lost due to elbow inflammation.
What 2014 Has in Store:
At this point, Dotel's career may be coming close to being finished. Even in the 6 games he pitched last year, he struggled and he's going to be 40. He may get a spring-training invite but the odds are likely stacked against him.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 39 is Doug Bair. During his age 40 season he pitched 22 games for the 1990 Pirates but struggled (1.685 WHIP). If Dotel makes a major league roster, I could see him getting into some games but its uncertain how much more effectiveness would be left in his arm.
Ryan Madson:
Where He's Been:
For a few years, he was a very effective reliever in the Phillies bullpen. However, he has lost the last two seasons due to injuries.
What 2014 Has in Store:
This all depends on whether or not Madson can get past the right elbow issues that required him to have Tommy John surgery. He's not young (33) but there is enough time for him to continue what had been a successful career if he can get healthy enough to play again.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 30 was Doug Bird. He had a few years of starting pitching (not necessarily effective) before finishing his career in 1983. I don't think this particularly applies to Madson as he was exclusively in relief for the last five years he was active and it's unclear whether he will be as effective or close to it if/when he returns.
All numbers, comparisons found on baseball-reference.com
Kyle Farnsworth:
Where He's Been:
Pretty much everywhere. Since leaving the Cubs after 2004, he's gone from team to team and for the most part helped with their bullpen efforts. His 2013 started rough as he struggled during his time with the Rays but he did pitch very well in some late-season appearances for the Pirates.
What 2014 Has in Store:
Likely ending up in someone else's bullpen. His last really strong season was in 2011 when he filled in as closer for the Rays. He's been below average the last couple seasons and if that trend continues his career could be pretty close to being done (it doesn't help hat he's already 37).
Comparison Analysis:
His most comparable player through age 37 is Tim Worrell. After age 37, Worrell pitched 23 games and had very poor results doing so (1.72 WHIP, 61 ERA+). My gut feeling is that Farnsworth gets himself into some big league action this year but there's a high possibility he struggles and that 2014 could be his last season.
Carlos Marmol:
Where He's Been:
Mostly with the Cubs. He had a few really good seasons to start his career but those days had apparently passed him by in 2012 when I had him on my Fantasy Baseball team and he went on to blow a bunch of saves. After the Cubs had seen enough, he ended up on the Dodgers in a move that was mocked by many. While some of the surface stats were okay (143 ERA+), red flags were still abound as his WHIP was north of 1.5 and he had a BB/9 of 8.
What 2014 Has in Store:
More likely than not, Marmol will be given a chance somewhere. He's still relatively young (31) and he still has the ability to strike out batters (10.8 SO/9) in 2013. Likely, where ever he ends up, he's not going to pitch very well, he may get some strike outs but nothing indicates that the control issues that have plagued him have been resolved.
Comparison Analysis:
Through age 30, the most similar pitcher to him is Braden Looper. After age 30, he had one more solid season of relief pitching before being a starting pitcher for the last three seasons (including one bad season with the Brewers that was a compelling argument against using win-loss records to evaluate pitchers). Either way not a likely scenario for Marmol as I don't see him ever being converted to a starting pitcher or being in the MLB for more than a year or two if the control issues do not get resolved.
Octavio Dotel:
Where He's Been:
Pretty much everywhere. It would almost be easier to list the teams he hasn't played for. During his career, he has been successful as a reliever after some initial struggles as a starter. He had continued to perform well as he got into his late 30s but the 2013 season was a wash as that season was lost due to elbow inflammation.
What 2014 Has in Store:
At this point, Dotel's career may be coming close to being finished. Even in the 6 games he pitched last year, he struggled and he's going to be 40. He may get a spring-training invite but the odds are likely stacked against him.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar player through age 39 is Doug Bair. During his age 40 season he pitched 22 games for the 1990 Pirates but struggled (1.685 WHIP). If Dotel makes a major league roster, I could see him getting into some games but its uncertain how much more effectiveness would be left in his arm.
Ryan Madson:
Where He's Been:
For a few years, he was a very effective reliever in the Phillies bullpen. However, he has lost the last two seasons due to injuries.
What 2014 Has in Store:
This all depends on whether or not Madson can get past the right elbow issues that required him to have Tommy John surgery. He's not young (33) but there is enough time for him to continue what had been a successful career if he can get healthy enough to play again.
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 30 was Doug Bird. He had a few years of starting pitching (not necessarily effective) before finishing his career in 1983. I don't think this particularly applies to Madson as he was exclusively in relief for the last five years he was active and it's unclear whether he will be as effective or close to it if/when he returns.
All numbers, comparisons found on baseball-reference.com
Friday, January 24, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Bruce Chen, Joel Hanrahan, Scott Baker, Darren Oliver
Bruce Chen:
What He's Done:
Chen is pretty much been anywhere and everywhere in his major league career (including 4/5th of the National League East). While he jumped from team to team frequently early in his career, he's surprisingly spent the last five of those in Kansas City.
He's actually coming off his best season since 2000 with an ERA+ of 126 but since its pretty rare for pitchers to hit their peak at age 36, this is likely more of a career year than a change in trends going forward.
What's In Store for 2014:
Likely to have to compete his way into a #4 or #5 starter slot for a team that thinks he can repeat 2013 performance or at the very least give them 1 or 2 productive seasons. My estimate is that he gets somewhere in the range of $2 million/1 year contract to pitch.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 36 is Mark Gardner. After turning 36, he pitched three more seasons struggling in two of them and pitching slightly above average in one of them. My guess is that Chen has a pretty average season (close to his 2010/2011 totals) for the coming year but anything beyond that would be a lot to ask.
Joel Hanrahan:
What He's Done:
He's had some success closing out games in the 2011/2012 seasons but had a disastrous 2013 season where he did nothing tho contribute to the Red Sox winning the World Series as he needed to get Tommy John surgery.
What's In Store for 2014:
His career is at a crossroads. Is his 2013 just a minor bump in the road or is it an indication that his career peak has come and gone. He may be more of a play to contribute in 2015 than 2014 and it depends on how his arm recovers from surgery.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 31 is Heathcliff Slocumb. After turning 31, he had three seaons left in the tank with one of the those (1999) being better than average. My feeling is that Hanrahan will come back strong from surgery (even if it isn't this year) and get back to being a productive reliever.
Scott Baker:
What He's Done:
Had a nice stretch in the Minnesota Twins rotation from 2006 to 2011 before being sidelined with injuries. Came back and had a few decent starts with the Cubs last year but too small of a sample size to indicate whether he can be relied upon to pitch through a full season.
What's In Store for 2014:
Baker looks like a low-risk decent-size reward candidate. He'll likely get signed to a minor league deal but should get into a starting rotation somewhere.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age is Shaun Marcum who is also coming off his age 31 season and injury problems the last couple years (though with Marcum he missed parts of seasons but didn't have entire seasons wiped out).
I think that Baker manages to pitch 100-150 innings at some point this season but i'm not sure if he'll necessarily be effective.
Darren Oliver:
What He's Done:
He's pretty much been everywhere in a career that started way back in 1993! Early in his career he was a marginally effective starting pitcher. After not pitching in the MLB in 2005, he came back and started his more effective second phase of his career as a reliever (with the Mets, Angels, Rangers & Blue Jays).
What's In Store for 2014:
He's one of those lefty relievers that still manages to get batters out and the best current hope of an active player still being in the bigs after they turn 50. I don't think he gets signed until around March but he'll have a lefty specialist role somewhere.
Comparative Analysis:
With Oliver still playing at an age where the vast majority of players have retired, I was curious to see who his closest comparison is. Through age 42, the top comparison is Jeff Fassero. While Fassero had more success as a starter, he had less momentum as his time as a reliever than Oliver did. After age 42, he made 10 sub-par appearances for the 2006 Giants. I think Oliver avoids that fate for at least a couple years as he is still putting up consistent performance numbers as he gets older.
All Numbers, Comparisons, etc found on baseball-reference.com
What He's Done:
Chen is pretty much been anywhere and everywhere in his major league career (including 4/5th of the National League East). While he jumped from team to team frequently early in his career, he's surprisingly spent the last five of those in Kansas City.
He's actually coming off his best season since 2000 with an ERA+ of 126 but since its pretty rare for pitchers to hit their peak at age 36, this is likely more of a career year than a change in trends going forward.
What's In Store for 2014:
Likely to have to compete his way into a #4 or #5 starter slot for a team that thinks he can repeat 2013 performance or at the very least give them 1 or 2 productive seasons. My estimate is that he gets somewhere in the range of $2 million/1 year contract to pitch.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar player through age 36 is Mark Gardner. After turning 36, he pitched three more seasons struggling in two of them and pitching slightly above average in one of them. My guess is that Chen has a pretty average season (close to his 2010/2011 totals) for the coming year but anything beyond that would be a lot to ask.
Joel Hanrahan:
What He's Done:
He's had some success closing out games in the 2011/2012 seasons but had a disastrous 2013 season where he did nothing tho contribute to the Red Sox winning the World Series as he needed to get Tommy John surgery.
What's In Store for 2014:
His career is at a crossroads. Is his 2013 just a minor bump in the road or is it an indication that his career peak has come and gone. He may be more of a play to contribute in 2015 than 2014 and it depends on how his arm recovers from surgery.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 31 is Heathcliff Slocumb. After turning 31, he had three seaons left in the tank with one of the those (1999) being better than average. My feeling is that Hanrahan will come back strong from surgery (even if it isn't this year) and get back to being a productive reliever.
Scott Baker:
What He's Done:
Had a nice stretch in the Minnesota Twins rotation from 2006 to 2011 before being sidelined with injuries. Came back and had a few decent starts with the Cubs last year but too small of a sample size to indicate whether he can be relied upon to pitch through a full season.
What's In Store for 2014:
Baker looks like a low-risk decent-size reward candidate. He'll likely get signed to a minor league deal but should get into a starting rotation somewhere.
Comparative Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age is Shaun Marcum who is also coming off his age 31 season and injury problems the last couple years (though with Marcum he missed parts of seasons but didn't have entire seasons wiped out).
I think that Baker manages to pitch 100-150 innings at some point this season but i'm not sure if he'll necessarily be effective.
Darren Oliver:
What He's Done:
He's pretty much been everywhere in a career that started way back in 1993! Early in his career he was a marginally effective starting pitcher. After not pitching in the MLB in 2005, he came back and started his more effective second phase of his career as a reliever (with the Mets, Angels, Rangers & Blue Jays).
What's In Store for 2014:
He's one of those lefty relievers that still manages to get batters out and the best current hope of an active player still being in the bigs after they turn 50. I don't think he gets signed until around March but he'll have a lefty specialist role somewhere.
Comparative Analysis:
With Oliver still playing at an age where the vast majority of players have retired, I was curious to see who his closest comparison is. Through age 42, the top comparison is Jeff Fassero. While Fassero had more success as a starter, he had less momentum as his time as a reliever than Oliver did. After age 42, he made 10 sub-par appearances for the 2006 Giants. I think Oliver avoids that fate for at least a couple years as he is still putting up consistent performance numbers as he gets older.
All Numbers, Comparisons, etc found on baseball-reference.com
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Frank Francisco, Sandy Rosario, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Frank Francisco:
What He's Done: Francisco had a nice five year stretch with an ERA+ over 100 in each of those years. He's pitched exclusively in relief with a few separate stretches getting closing duties. The last two years haven't been as kind to him as his effectiveness has taken a sharp drop
What 2014 Has In Store: Likely to get a minor-league invite somewhere but far from guaranteed that he'll be in the MLB. The sharp drop off in performance at age 32-33 indicates his career may be coming to an end sooner rather than later.
Comparison Analysis: His closest comparable through age 33 is Doug Henry. He pitched in four additional seasons after turning 33 with an above average ERA+ in two of those seasons. This still doesn't make me too optimistic about his future. While Henry struggles in his 32/33 seasons, the drop off in performance was not as dramatic as it has been for Francisco the last couple seasons.
Sandy Rosario:
What He's Done:
2013 was the first year where he got a chance to pitch on a regular basis (43 games for the Giants) and had decent results (111 ERA+) though there are a couple red flags that indicate future struggles (1.2 SO/BB ratio and 1.39 WHIP.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Likely getting a minor league contract from somewhere and fighting and clawing to get another bullpen job. Since his results were okay last year, more likely than not he starts the season on a big league roster.
Comparison Analysis:
Not applicable as this data isn't available due to limited amount of career innings pitched (49 1/3). A lot of it boils down to control, if he can cut down on walks and/or increase strikeouts he could have a nice career as a middle reliever but if not his career could be very short.
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
What He's Done:
His time in the states got off to a very strong start as he pitched very well in 2007 & 2008. However, injuries and ineffectiveness have marred the last five years. The bottom fell out in 2012 but he did show some improvement in a few starts with the Mets.
What 2014 Has In Store:
His career is at a crossroads. It's unlikely that 2008 is going to repeat itself and he's not getting any younger (33) so time is definitely not on his side. Still, some team is going to be lured by the name and give him a flier with a minor-league contract and see if he could contribute some innings at the back of their rotation (best case scenario)
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 32 was Robert Person. After age 32, he pitched seven ineffective games for the 2003 Red Sox. While I don't think Matsuzaka is going to be a star again, I think his future has somewhat brighter prospects and that he could hang around as a low-end starting pitcher for at least a couple of years.
Kevin Gregg:
What He's Done:
He's been pitching in relief since 2003 and had a job as designated ninth inning guy for six of the last seven years. He's been a decent relief pitcher in his career (106 ERA+) but hasn't been particular dominant.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He's coming off a decent 2013 with the Cubs so I think he gets a 1 year deal for a moderate amount ($4-$5 million). My guess is that he probably doesn't get a closing gig and he'll likely end up in a middle relief/set up role.
Comparison Analysis:
His closest comparable through age 35 is Todd Jones. After that point, he pitched for five more years and had an above average ERA+ in four of them. I'm not sure if Gregg sticks around that long (my guess is two or three more productive seasons) but he still has enough left to be a solid contributor.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on Baseball-Reference.com
What He's Done: Francisco had a nice five year stretch with an ERA+ over 100 in each of those years. He's pitched exclusively in relief with a few separate stretches getting closing duties. The last two years haven't been as kind to him as his effectiveness has taken a sharp drop
What 2014 Has In Store: Likely to get a minor-league invite somewhere but far from guaranteed that he'll be in the MLB. The sharp drop off in performance at age 32-33 indicates his career may be coming to an end sooner rather than later.
Comparison Analysis: His closest comparable through age 33 is Doug Henry. He pitched in four additional seasons after turning 33 with an above average ERA+ in two of those seasons. This still doesn't make me too optimistic about his future. While Henry struggles in his 32/33 seasons, the drop off in performance was not as dramatic as it has been for Francisco the last couple seasons.
Sandy Rosario:
What He's Done:
2013 was the first year where he got a chance to pitch on a regular basis (43 games for the Giants) and had decent results (111 ERA+) though there are a couple red flags that indicate future struggles (1.2 SO/BB ratio and 1.39 WHIP.
What 2014 Has In Store:
Likely getting a minor league contract from somewhere and fighting and clawing to get another bullpen job. Since his results were okay last year, more likely than not he starts the season on a big league roster.
Comparison Analysis:
Not applicable as this data isn't available due to limited amount of career innings pitched (49 1/3). A lot of it boils down to control, if he can cut down on walks and/or increase strikeouts he could have a nice career as a middle reliever but if not his career could be very short.
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
What He's Done:
His time in the states got off to a very strong start as he pitched very well in 2007 & 2008. However, injuries and ineffectiveness have marred the last five years. The bottom fell out in 2012 but he did show some improvement in a few starts with the Mets.
What 2014 Has In Store:
His career is at a crossroads. It's unlikely that 2008 is going to repeat itself and he's not getting any younger (33) so time is definitely not on his side. Still, some team is going to be lured by the name and give him a flier with a minor-league contract and see if he could contribute some innings at the back of their rotation (best case scenario)
Comparison Analysis:
His most similar pitcher through age 32 was Robert Person. After age 32, he pitched seven ineffective games for the 2003 Red Sox. While I don't think Matsuzaka is going to be a star again, I think his future has somewhat brighter prospects and that he could hang around as a low-end starting pitcher for at least a couple of years.
Kevin Gregg:
What He's Done:
He's been pitching in relief since 2003 and had a job as designated ninth inning guy for six of the last seven years. He's been a decent relief pitcher in his career (106 ERA+) but hasn't been particular dominant.
What 2014 Has In Store:
He's coming off a decent 2013 with the Cubs so I think he gets a 1 year deal for a moderate amount ($4-$5 million). My guess is that he probably doesn't get a closing gig and he'll likely end up in a middle relief/set up role.
Comparison Analysis:
His closest comparable through age 35 is Todd Jones. After that point, he pitched for five more years and had an above average ERA+ in four of them. I'm not sure if Gregg sticks around that long (my guess is two or three more productive seasons) but he still has enough left to be a solid contributor.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on Baseball-Reference.com
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Aaron Harang, Jason Marquis, Oliver Perez, Andrew Bailey
Aaron Harang:
Harang is on the short list of pitchers that have started games that i've attended. The one thing I remember about the game was that even though Cincinnati isn't very far from Chicago, I saw literally two Reds jerseys and that the Cubs lost putting them into a tie for first with the Brewers as both teams were playing not to win the 2007 NL Central and the Brewers were putting the final touches of blowing a 8 1/2 game division lead.
Either way, 2007 was the culmination of the peak of Harang's career as he tied for his career best ERA+ of 124. For the last handful of years he's been a fairly average pitcher until 2013 when he was one of the worst starters in the league (although he had a decent finish with the Mets).
Harang's career is getting close to being finished and a minor-league deal is probably best case scenario. His most similar player through age 35 is fellow free agent Bronson Arroyo. While Arroyo pitched okay in his age 36 season (2013), I would be surprised to see the same out of Harang considering how far his numbers regressed during his time with the Mariners.
Jason Marquis:
Marquis did have a decent stretch where he was at least an average pitcher but even those days have come and gone (last time with an ERA+ above 100 was 2009). The last few years he's been going from job to job. I'd imagine the same to happen this year but even that can only last for so long if he keeps on putting WHIPs in the 1.5 range up. His most similar pitcher through age 34 was Pedro Astacio and he managed to stick around for about three years afterwards despite putting up below average numbers.
Oliver Perez:
Perez has had what one could call an unconventional career path (that makes it easily forgettable that he's still only 32). He's shown incredible promise at times as a starting pitcher to only be more than counter-balanced with issues of finding the strike zone and alienating some of the teams (Mets) that he's been on. After a disastrous 2009-2010 with the Mets his career looked pretty much done. The last couple years, he's been pitching out of the bullpen for Seattle and had a couple decent and drama free seasons.
He may be one of those players more suited to the bullpen than starting. He has shown the ability to still strike out batters (12.6 per 9 innings last year) so i'm sure he could be an asset to someone's bullpen and maybe one day be a designated ninth inning pitcher. His most similar player through age 31 is Pete Schourek who had a 102 ERA+ in 33 games for the 2001 Red Sox before his career came to an end. My guess is that Perez has more than one year (maybe closer to five years) as a reliable arm out of the bullpen.
Andrew Bailey:
Andrew Bailey came out very strong out of the gate with dominating seasons in 2009 & 2010. However, the last few years have been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Bailey could be a good low-risk/high-reward. His most similar player through age 29 (John Axford) has basically gone through the similar trajectory and is coming off an up and down season with the Brewers & Cardinals. Based on his early career promise, Axford managed to get a 1 yr 4.5 million dollar deal. I still think Bailey could manage to get something along the lines of 1 yr and 2-3 million on the open market.
All numbers found on baseball-reference.com
Harang is on the short list of pitchers that have started games that i've attended. The one thing I remember about the game was that even though Cincinnati isn't very far from Chicago, I saw literally two Reds jerseys and that the Cubs lost putting them into a tie for first with the Brewers as both teams were playing not to win the 2007 NL Central and the Brewers were putting the final touches of blowing a 8 1/2 game division lead.
Either way, 2007 was the culmination of the peak of Harang's career as he tied for his career best ERA+ of 124. For the last handful of years he's been a fairly average pitcher until 2013 when he was one of the worst starters in the league (although he had a decent finish with the Mets).
Harang's career is getting close to being finished and a minor-league deal is probably best case scenario. His most similar player through age 35 is fellow free agent Bronson Arroyo. While Arroyo pitched okay in his age 36 season (2013), I would be surprised to see the same out of Harang considering how far his numbers regressed during his time with the Mariners.
Jason Marquis:
Marquis did have a decent stretch where he was at least an average pitcher but even those days have come and gone (last time with an ERA+ above 100 was 2009). The last few years he's been going from job to job. I'd imagine the same to happen this year but even that can only last for so long if he keeps on putting WHIPs in the 1.5 range up. His most similar pitcher through age 34 was Pedro Astacio and he managed to stick around for about three years afterwards despite putting up below average numbers.
Oliver Perez:
Perez has had what one could call an unconventional career path (that makes it easily forgettable that he's still only 32). He's shown incredible promise at times as a starting pitcher to only be more than counter-balanced with issues of finding the strike zone and alienating some of the teams (Mets) that he's been on. After a disastrous 2009-2010 with the Mets his career looked pretty much done. The last couple years, he's been pitching out of the bullpen for Seattle and had a couple decent and drama free seasons.
He may be one of those players more suited to the bullpen than starting. He has shown the ability to still strike out batters (12.6 per 9 innings last year) so i'm sure he could be an asset to someone's bullpen and maybe one day be a designated ninth inning pitcher. His most similar player through age 31 is Pete Schourek who had a 102 ERA+ in 33 games for the 2001 Red Sox before his career came to an end. My guess is that Perez has more than one year (maybe closer to five years) as a reliable arm out of the bullpen.
Andrew Bailey:
Andrew Bailey came out very strong out of the gate with dominating seasons in 2009 & 2010. However, the last few years have been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Bailey could be a good low-risk/high-reward. His most similar player through age 29 (John Axford) has basically gone through the similar trajectory and is coming off an up and down season with the Brewers & Cardinals. Based on his early career promise, Axford managed to get a 1 yr 4.5 million dollar deal. I still think Bailey could manage to get something along the lines of 1 yr and 2-3 million on the open market.
All numbers found on baseball-reference.com
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