Eric O'Flaherty/Luke Gregerson:
With Sean Doolittle expected to miss some time due to injury, there are some possible saves available from the Oakland A's. The only catch to this is it is unclear which of these two players they will be distributed to. However, this has not deterred fantasy owners from picking both of these players up and making both of these by far the most picked up players in Fantasy today.
Since neither of these players have any full-time closing experience, it may help to look at what they've done so far in their careers to try to troubleshoot who is the better choice and who has the best chance. Since O'Flaherty hasn't pitched much in the majors this year (13 1/3 innings), i'm going to shift my focus towards their career numbers.
Strikeout Potential:
This goes to Gregerson who has the K/9 edge at 8.89 to 6.95, to further pile on he also has walked less batters per 9 (2.64 to 3.08). While their career ERA's are very similar (2.78 Gregerson, 2.79 O'Flaherty), the FIP, xFIP stats indicate that the gap between these two pitchers is larger and in favor of Gregerson.
That being said, it appears much more likely that O'Flaherty is going to get placed into the designated ninth-inning role and at least temporarily hold much more value. Since, the A's are one of the best teams in the league, he should have plenty of opportunities to pile up some saves in the short term.
Kennys Vargas:
Currently owned in 28% of leagues. He has continued to mash since getting called up to the bigs and his continued uptick in value was aided by a 6-RBI performance in Saturday's double-header versus the Tigers.
Oddly, enough his ranking dropped a few spots (128th to 131st) over the weekend. Currently, his BABIP is sitting at .424. While he is worth a closer look and it appears even playing at Target Field hasn't hampered his power too much at the same time expectations do need to be tempered as he's not going to hit .337. With a small sample size of data, his projected average is still fluctuating between the .240-.260 range. Besides that, another red flag that may rear its head at some point is that he has drawn fewer walks (3.9%) while in the majors than he had been drawing at AA this year (10.6%).
Tsuyoshi Wada:
Currently owned in 20% of leagues. Playing for a Cubs team that has been out of contention for several years, his strong performance has flown very under the radar. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in his last six starts and has shown to be a solid source for strikeouts (8.08 per 9 innings).
His ERA is better than expected (2.56) as he's gotten fortunate on the BABIP side of things (.258) but even with that factored in his projected ERA is still a solid 3.41. I think Wada is a solid back-end rotation option as long as expectations are tempered regarding his earned run average.
Dustin Ackley:
Currently owned in 43% of leagues. He had a strong weekend hitting one homer and driving in 5 runs in the Mariners sweep over the Red Sox. This has helped him in my rankings as he's gone from 180th to 135th.
He's projected average (.258) is very close to his actual total (.256) and appears to be on track to break into double figures for both home runs and stolen bases. While he doesn't hold much value with his outfield eligibility, he could be a decent upgrade at second base.
Research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy
Showing posts with label Dustin Ackley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dustin Ackley. Show all posts
Monday, August 25, 2014
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Around The Lineup: 8/14
Taking a look at some players getting picked up off the waiver wire but not on a lot of teams.
Catcher:
Russell Martin
Currently owned in 27% of leagues. He has been the beneficiary of a recent 11-game hitting streak that has raised his batting average from .278 to .288. This may be a nice boost for people owning him now but if you are one those people, you may want to sell high on Martin.
His BABIP is at .352 which is significantly higher than his career total .288. Factoring out this area, he projects to be more of a .235 hitter with the possibility of double-digit home run power. While he does have significantly higher real-life value as he's helping the Pirates stay in contention (3.4 WAR) which could be enough to push the Pirates over the top in the NL Central (boo), his value is primarily on the defensive end (not counted in fantasy) and incredible patience at the plate (13.4% Walk Rate this year) which would give him a .370 OBP (not bad) even with a .236 average. For fantasy purposes, he's currently ranked 202nd out of 325.
First Base:
Lonnie Chisenhall:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues. He's actually the sixth most added first base eligible player so far but the first one below 50% ownership due to him being frequently dropped due to recent struggles.
Which Chisenhall is the real one, the one that hit real well early in the season or the one that is encountering struggles as the Indians try to stay within the fringe of contention. In terms of fantasy ownership, Chisenhall is on the fringe of being an option being ranked 141st overall.
He is starting to come down from his BABIP high from earlier this year and holds more value at third than first. His average is currently projected at .259 and could be a source of 20 homers over a full season.
Second Base:
Dustin Ackley:
Currently owned in 40% of leagues and currently 177th in my player rankings. He does have hits in four of his last five games but needs to show more before I would be sold on him. He currently projects out to be a .257 hitter with the possibility of double figure home runs.
Third Base:
Yangervis Solarte:
Currently owned in 29% of leagues. With hits in five of his last six games, his perceived value is increasing (assuming his mild left oblique quad strain does not lead to missed playing time). His stock in my rankings has also improved as he's gone from 147th to 116th.
Even with his decent showing so far, there are indicators he could be better as his BABIP (.273) is relatively low along with his HR/FB rate. Even though he's hitting .261 this year, he's projected to be closer to a .287 hitter (.394 OBP when you add in 10.7% BB Rate) and capable of throwing in 15 home runs. Along with playing for a widely ignored Padres team and you have yourselves a solid sleeper waiver wire pick.
Shortstop:
Jordy Mercer:
Currently owned in 19% of leagues. His perceived value has benefited from a recent five game hitting streak that has raised his average to .265 which is pretty close to his projection .259. He may have marginal value since he's a shortstop and could crack double-figure homer totals. He has seen a marginal bump in my rankings from his recent stretch going from 212th to 206th.
Outfield:
Michael A. Taylor
Currently owned in 2% of leagues but by far the most popular pick up today (the benefits of homering in your big league debut. While he skipped straight from AA to the majors, his chance of success appears to be high even after discounting his minor league numbers by about 20%.
His highest risk area is the batting average as he no longer has the benefit of AA pitching & a .421 BABIP to work with. With that being said, he has the potential to make up for this in the rest of the categories in a big way as he could be a potential 25 homer/50 steal threat down the road.
Catcher:
Russell Martin
Currently owned in 27% of leagues. He has been the beneficiary of a recent 11-game hitting streak that has raised his batting average from .278 to .288. This may be a nice boost for people owning him now but if you are one those people, you may want to sell high on Martin.
His BABIP is at .352 which is significantly higher than his career total .288. Factoring out this area, he projects to be more of a .235 hitter with the possibility of double-digit home run power. While he does have significantly higher real-life value as he's helping the Pirates stay in contention (3.4 WAR) which could be enough to push the Pirates over the top in the NL Central (boo), his value is primarily on the defensive end (not counted in fantasy) and incredible patience at the plate (13.4% Walk Rate this year) which would give him a .370 OBP (not bad) even with a .236 average. For fantasy purposes, he's currently ranked 202nd out of 325.
First Base:
Lonnie Chisenhall:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues. He's actually the sixth most added first base eligible player so far but the first one below 50% ownership due to him being frequently dropped due to recent struggles.
Which Chisenhall is the real one, the one that hit real well early in the season or the one that is encountering struggles as the Indians try to stay within the fringe of contention. In terms of fantasy ownership, Chisenhall is on the fringe of being an option being ranked 141st overall.
He is starting to come down from his BABIP high from earlier this year and holds more value at third than first. His average is currently projected at .259 and could be a source of 20 homers over a full season.
Second Base:
Dustin Ackley:
Currently owned in 40% of leagues and currently 177th in my player rankings. He does have hits in four of his last five games but needs to show more before I would be sold on him. He currently projects out to be a .257 hitter with the possibility of double figure home runs.
Third Base:
Yangervis Solarte:
Currently owned in 29% of leagues. With hits in five of his last six games, his perceived value is increasing (assuming his mild left oblique quad strain does not lead to missed playing time). His stock in my rankings has also improved as he's gone from 147th to 116th.
Even with his decent showing so far, there are indicators he could be better as his BABIP (.273) is relatively low along with his HR/FB rate. Even though he's hitting .261 this year, he's projected to be closer to a .287 hitter (.394 OBP when you add in 10.7% BB Rate) and capable of throwing in 15 home runs. Along with playing for a widely ignored Padres team and you have yourselves a solid sleeper waiver wire pick.
Shortstop:
Jordy Mercer:
Currently owned in 19% of leagues. His perceived value has benefited from a recent five game hitting streak that has raised his average to .265 which is pretty close to his projection .259. He may have marginal value since he's a shortstop and could crack double-figure homer totals. He has seen a marginal bump in my rankings from his recent stretch going from 212th to 206th.
Outfield:
Michael A. Taylor
Currently owned in 2% of leagues but by far the most popular pick up today (the benefits of homering in your big league debut. While he skipped straight from AA to the majors, his chance of success appears to be high even after discounting his minor league numbers by about 20%.
His highest risk area is the batting average as he no longer has the benefit of AA pitching & a .421 BABIP to work with. With that being said, he has the potential to make up for this in the rest of the categories in a big way as he could be a potential 25 homer/50 steal threat down the road.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pick Ups: 8/8/14
Dustin Ackley:
Currently owned in 26% of Yahoo! leagues but is seeing his fantasy value go up after homering for the second consecutive game.
Ackley came to the majors with high expectations and the question to ask is whether this is the time that he cashes in on them? While he has been an improved player and his recent surge has helped him move up my rankings (205th to 177th), the only thing that would make him worth consideration is the second base eligibility.
His BABIP is right in line with his career totals, so his .257 batting average is in line with what I think he'll do but i'm not sold on his power (able to break into double digits but not much beyond that) and only the occasional stolen base. He could be the key to the Mariners getting back to the playoffs for first time since 2001 but this is far from guarantee.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. If your gonna get your first crack at major league pitching, it doesn't hurt to have that come against the Rockies at Coors Field. While people have been rushing to pick him up over the last few days, the only thing that appears to be able to slow this down is the diminishing amount of leagues that he is available in. The only question is how many home runs does he hit down the stretch and how many fantasy leagues does he help determine the outcome of ?
Brandon McCarthy:
Currently owned in 32% of leagues. The question that is raised with him is which performance from this year is closer to his ability. His struggles earlier this year in Arizona or the resurgence he has enjoyed since being traded to the Yankees?
The answer, as always is somewhere between those two extremes. His ERA does project out to 3.49 which isn't bad since he's been pitching in a couple hitter-friendly ballparks for his home games this year. Still, he's worth picking up to see how long his hot streak lasts and for any road starts where he actually gets to pitch in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Currently, I have him ranked 48th (out of 107 starters). He's an option worth considering, but not necessarily a no-brainer.
Kolten Wong:
Currently owned in 37% of leagues. Even with recent strong play and the accompanying uptick in ownership, I still think he is under-rated and probably contribute a lot towards either preventing or making it very difficult for the Brewers to make the playoffs (boo).
Putting personal feelings aside, his value is very strong for someone that is available in 63% of leagues. I have him ranked as a top-100 player (85), and project him out to be a .280 hitter. Alongside that, I think he'd hit about 18 homers over a full season (not bad for second base) and might even provide 40 steals. He's definitely a substantial upgrade for any fantasy roster.
Chris Carter:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. Chris Carter's performance is the equivalent of high stakes gambling in that he is just as likely to have a multi-homer game as he is to sabotage your batting average and strike out four times in a game.
Last night, he struck gold and hit a couple of home runs. This home run outburst from last night has helped his stock as he has moved from 100th to 71st in the batter rankings. Considering the Astros get their next series at home against a couple of sub-standard pitching staffs (Rangers, Twins), he is definitely worth picking up in both standard & daily formats.
All numbers/information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo! Fantasy
Currently owned in 26% of Yahoo! leagues but is seeing his fantasy value go up after homering for the second consecutive game.
Ackley came to the majors with high expectations and the question to ask is whether this is the time that he cashes in on them? While he has been an improved player and his recent surge has helped him move up my rankings (205th to 177th), the only thing that would make him worth consideration is the second base eligibility.
His BABIP is right in line with his career totals, so his .257 batting average is in line with what I think he'll do but i'm not sold on his power (able to break into double digits but not much beyond that) and only the occasional stolen base. He could be the key to the Mariners getting back to the playoffs for first time since 2001 but this is far from guarantee.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. If your gonna get your first crack at major league pitching, it doesn't hurt to have that come against the Rockies at Coors Field. While people have been rushing to pick him up over the last few days, the only thing that appears to be able to slow this down is the diminishing amount of leagues that he is available in. The only question is how many home runs does he hit down the stretch and how many fantasy leagues does he help determine the outcome of ?
Brandon McCarthy:
Currently owned in 32% of leagues. The question that is raised with him is which performance from this year is closer to his ability. His struggles earlier this year in Arizona or the resurgence he has enjoyed since being traded to the Yankees?
The answer, as always is somewhere between those two extremes. His ERA does project out to 3.49 which isn't bad since he's been pitching in a couple hitter-friendly ballparks for his home games this year. Still, he's worth picking up to see how long his hot streak lasts and for any road starts where he actually gets to pitch in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Currently, I have him ranked 48th (out of 107 starters). He's an option worth considering, but not necessarily a no-brainer.
Kolten Wong:
Currently owned in 37% of leagues. Even with recent strong play and the accompanying uptick in ownership, I still think he is under-rated and probably contribute a lot towards either preventing or making it very difficult for the Brewers to make the playoffs (boo).
Putting personal feelings aside, his value is very strong for someone that is available in 63% of leagues. I have him ranked as a top-100 player (85), and project him out to be a .280 hitter. Alongside that, I think he'd hit about 18 homers over a full season (not bad for second base) and might even provide 40 steals. He's definitely a substantial upgrade for any fantasy roster.
Chris Carter:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. Chris Carter's performance is the equivalent of high stakes gambling in that he is just as likely to have a multi-homer game as he is to sabotage your batting average and strike out four times in a game.
Last night, he struck gold and hit a couple of home runs. This home run outburst from last night has helped his stock as he has moved from 100th to 71st in the batter rankings. Considering the Astros get their next series at home against a couple of sub-standard pitching staffs (Rangers, Twins), he is definitely worth picking up in both standard & daily formats.
All numbers/information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo! Fantasy
Friday, March 14, 2014
Likely Available Waiver Wire Talent: Peter Bourjos, Raul Ibanez, Dustin Ackley, Junior Lake, Josh Willingham
Peter Bourjos (12%)
Bourjos got traded over to the Cardinals in the offseason and is looking to bounce back from a season shortened by injury and being on a team where he's not behind Mike Trout on the depth chart for center field.
I think that Bourjos ultimately is one of those players that is more valuable (due to his defense) in real life than he is in fantasy. Batting average wise, he has been inconsistent (.251/.306 career average/obp), he doesn't draw very many walks which could lead to his performance regressing sooner rather than later.
He will hit some homers (career high of 12) and steal some bases (22) but not enough to justify a starting spot on most fantasy teams.
But then again, I could be reading things all wrong. Through age 26, his most similar player was Carl Everett aka Jurassic Carl. In addition to not believing in dinosaurs, he did overcome a show start to his career and produce a .296/.359/.482 15 homers & 14 steals at age 27 and ultimately hitting 20 plus homers four times in his career.
With Bourjos, my guess is that his ceiling on power is about 15 homers, his ceiling on steals is around 30 and he may get the batting average in the .270 range. These aren't necessarily terrible numbers, there's just better outfield options available.
Raul Ibanez (11%)
Raul Ibanez may be like really old, Raul Ibanez may be absolutely brutal on defense. Raul Ibanez will likely return poor average/obp numbers. The one thing Raul Ibanez can do really well is hit a baseball a really, really long way. He hit for enough power (29 homers) while playing during a time where power is down and for a team that plays its home games at a stadium that is not very power friendly and still churned out a respectable 123 OPS+.
If Ibanez is going to help, it's primarily going to be one category (home runs). The question remains is whether there is another productive season left in the tank. At this point, i'd give him the benefit of the doubt that he can still produce double digit home runs but don't expect much more than that.
His most similar player through age 41 is Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine. Conine retired before his age 42 season but in his age 41 season he had a lot less in the tank .254/.317/.383 than Ibanez.
Dustin Ackley (11%)
Ackley is still young and his career could go either way. The question is which Ackley is going to show up. Is it going to be the Ackley that justifies his past status as a top 15 prospect, his respectable showing in his first year in the bigs or are we going to see more of the Ackley that struggled bad enough that he got sent down to the minor leagues for awhile last year.
If Spring Training even remotely resembles a preview of what to come when the games start to count, he could be sneaky good sleeper pick. In 30 spring training plate appearances (small sample size alert) Ackley is absolutely crushing the ball to the tune of an 1.321 OPS.
His most similar player through age 25 is Reno Bertoia. In his age 26 season he was pretty brutal .226/.302/.267 52 OPS+. Even in a worse case scenario, I think Ackley would put up much better numbers than that. Best case scenario would be a return to 2011 form and numbers around .275/.350 average/obp and 15-20 homers.
Junior Lake (10%)
Lake got his first taste of major league experience last year and put in respectable numbers in 64 games .284/.332/.428 106 OPS+. As it stands right now, he's slated to start in left field.
He'll ge the plate appearances but the question remains of whether value will be produced from them. He's been an okay hitter in the minors but only has a .732 OPS in the minors and a .803 in 40 AAA games last year which sounds okay but was done in the offense friendly pacific coast league. A repeat of his numbers from last year is likely the best case scenario.
Josh Willingham (10%)
I thought Willingham would be a good bet in fantasy in 2013 as he showed that he could be productive while playing at target field. I was totally wrong. Along with only playing 111 games, he also had his first below average OPS+ since 2004 (when he only had 29 plate appearances).
If your in a league that counts OBP instead of average he'd have slightly more value. Despite a near mendoza line average (.208) he still but up a .342 OBP. Even though there is the hope that he can return to his older form, he already is 35 so last year may have been the beginning of the end and he's off to a very cold start in spring.
His most similar player through age 34 is Jason Werth. That season happened to be last year. Unlike Willingham, Werth had one of his best seasons last year and gets the benefit of playing on a team with a chance to win something instead of Willingham who's on a Twins team that will be lucky if they lose less than 90 games.
Bourjos got traded over to the Cardinals in the offseason and is looking to bounce back from a season shortened by injury and being on a team where he's not behind Mike Trout on the depth chart for center field.
I think that Bourjos ultimately is one of those players that is more valuable (due to his defense) in real life than he is in fantasy. Batting average wise, he has been inconsistent (.251/.306 career average/obp), he doesn't draw very many walks which could lead to his performance regressing sooner rather than later.
He will hit some homers (career high of 12) and steal some bases (22) but not enough to justify a starting spot on most fantasy teams.
But then again, I could be reading things all wrong. Through age 26, his most similar player was Carl Everett aka Jurassic Carl. In addition to not believing in dinosaurs, he did overcome a show start to his career and produce a .296/.359/.482 15 homers & 14 steals at age 27 and ultimately hitting 20 plus homers four times in his career.
With Bourjos, my guess is that his ceiling on power is about 15 homers, his ceiling on steals is around 30 and he may get the batting average in the .270 range. These aren't necessarily terrible numbers, there's just better outfield options available.
Raul Ibanez (11%)
Raul Ibanez may be like really old, Raul Ibanez may be absolutely brutal on defense. Raul Ibanez will likely return poor average/obp numbers. The one thing Raul Ibanez can do really well is hit a baseball a really, really long way. He hit for enough power (29 homers) while playing during a time where power is down and for a team that plays its home games at a stadium that is not very power friendly and still churned out a respectable 123 OPS+.
If Ibanez is going to help, it's primarily going to be one category (home runs). The question remains is whether there is another productive season left in the tank. At this point, i'd give him the benefit of the doubt that he can still produce double digit home runs but don't expect much more than that.
His most similar player through age 41 is Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine. Conine retired before his age 42 season but in his age 41 season he had a lot less in the tank .254/.317/.383 than Ibanez.
Dustin Ackley (11%)
Ackley is still young and his career could go either way. The question is which Ackley is going to show up. Is it going to be the Ackley that justifies his past status as a top 15 prospect, his respectable showing in his first year in the bigs or are we going to see more of the Ackley that struggled bad enough that he got sent down to the minor leagues for awhile last year.
If Spring Training even remotely resembles a preview of what to come when the games start to count, he could be sneaky good sleeper pick. In 30 spring training plate appearances (small sample size alert) Ackley is absolutely crushing the ball to the tune of an 1.321 OPS.
His most similar player through age 25 is Reno Bertoia. In his age 26 season he was pretty brutal .226/.302/.267 52 OPS+. Even in a worse case scenario, I think Ackley would put up much better numbers than that. Best case scenario would be a return to 2011 form and numbers around .275/.350 average/obp and 15-20 homers.
Junior Lake (10%)
Lake got his first taste of major league experience last year and put in respectable numbers in 64 games .284/.332/.428 106 OPS+. As it stands right now, he's slated to start in left field.
He'll ge the plate appearances but the question remains of whether value will be produced from them. He's been an okay hitter in the minors but only has a .732 OPS in the minors and a .803 in 40 AAA games last year which sounds okay but was done in the offense friendly pacific coast league. A repeat of his numbers from last year is likely the best case scenario.
Josh Willingham (10%)
I thought Willingham would be a good bet in fantasy in 2013 as he showed that he could be productive while playing at target field. I was totally wrong. Along with only playing 111 games, he also had his first below average OPS+ since 2004 (when he only had 29 plate appearances).
If your in a league that counts OBP instead of average he'd have slightly more value. Despite a near mendoza line average (.208) he still but up a .342 OBP. Even though there is the hope that he can return to his older form, he already is 35 so last year may have been the beginning of the end and he's off to a very cold start in spring.
His most similar player through age 34 is Jason Werth. That season happened to be last year. Unlike Willingham, Werth had one of his best seasons last year and gets the benefit of playing on a team with a chance to win something instead of Willingham who's on a Twins team that will be lucky if they lose less than 90 games.
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