Not enough time to go around the lineup, gonna try to get to as many players as possible.
Josh Rutledge:
Score: 51.9
Rank: 160
This week's Zeplen Dean Rankings now have 302 players as he was not originally on (133 plate appearances so far this season).
The positives on Rutledge are that he's going good at the moment (hits in four consecutive games), he can be plugged in at three different positions (Second Base, Third Base & Shortstop). Also, having a player that plays half of his games at Coors Field never hurts.
The downside is that while he has a .298 batting average, this number is distorted by a .384 BABIP. When this gets adjusted for (in comparison to a .310 career BABIP), his average gets adjusted down to .241. Also, he's never had more than 314 plate appearances in a season so even getting regular playing time isn't necessarily a guarantee.
Even with him being the second most picked up batter today on Yahoo (as of 12:30 PM PST), his ownership rate is still at 6% and I wouldn't recommend contributing to this total.
Verdict: Sell
Neil Walker:
Score: 66.9
Rank: 55
Granted, he's not exactly a well kept secret (70% ownership) but this is still a 4% increase over Yesterday. If you are in one of the 30% of leagues where Walker is somehow available, get him now.
Currently, he is on a six game hitting streak during which time he has thrown in 3 home runs and 7 rbi. Over 650 plate appearances, the Zeplen Dean System Projects:
.296/79 R/22 HR/83 RBI/4 SB
Walker has been one of those players who has been quietly consistent and this year added a subtle yet notable uptick in power. Considering this and him being at Second Base, he is definitely an upgrade to any roster.
Verdict: Buy
Jimmy Rollins:
Score: 57.3
Rank: 118
He may not be getting any younger (35 years old) but he's still putting up double figure home run & stolen base numbers (even if the batting average has been lackluster so far.
This is another player with a high ownership rate (79%) yet has still found a way to add momentum after going deep against the Giants last night (he's seen a 4% increase so far today).
His projection over 650 plate appearances is:
.251/ 80 R/18 HR/ 64 RBI/28 SB
If your in one of the 21% leagues where he is available I would go get him asap.
Verdict: Buy
Research for this posting done on Yahoo! & Fangraphs.com
Showing posts with label Neil Walker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Neil Walker. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Friday, July 11, 2014
Zeplen Dean Rankings: Second Base
Below are the second base rankings...I expanded the criteria to grab the top 30 players by plate appearance for the season when ranking them. Still some holes in that this isn't factoring players that have recently gotten picked up such as Kolten Wong and a few will be flagged due to injury....
Tier 1:
1-Ian Kinsler
2-Robinson Cano
3-Brian Dozier
4-Jose Altuve
5-Dee Gordon
6-Scooter Gennett
7-Howie Kendrick
As the Brewers have slipped massively, so has Gennett's ownership listing amongst fantasy owners as he's seen a 2% decrease over the last day. While he has not been immune to these struggles (he's been held hit less over the last two days), one thing that keeps him higher on here as that there is some indication he may be one of those players that's able to keep his BABIP above average as he's done this over a couple consecutive seasons.
If given a full season (650 PA), I could see him keeping the batting average in the .315-.320 range with enough pop and a favorable enough ball park to get home runs into double figures
Tier 2:
8-Daniel Murphy
9-Mike Aviles
10-Neil Walker
11-DJ LeMahieu
12-Brian Roberts
Note: Brett Lawrie would be ranked between Murphy & Aviles if he was not on the disabled list
While Walker has never been a star, he has always had a way of quietly being productive at second base where offense stats are at a premium. If you are looking for an upgrade at second and your in one of the 35% of leagues where he's still available, he would be a good pick up but you may have to act fast as he's got a nice five game hitting streak going on. I think he's a good bet to maintain his average in the high .270s and maybe break the 20 home run threshold when all is said and done.
Brian Roberts may only be owned in 3% of leagues but he is a bit under-rated. His average/power numbers aren't going to turn out great .264/9 homers but could see him make enough stolen base & run contributions to be an option worth considering.
Mike Aviles is another deeper cut player (9%) ownership that may be under-valued. He is in the same boat as Roberts where mediocre power/average numbers can be made up somewhat in the stolen base category.
Tier 3:
13-Chase Utley
14-Jason Kipnis
15-Darwin Barney
16-Ben Zobrist
17-Jonathan Schoop
Emilio Bonifacio would be ranked between Schoop and Infante if he was not on disabled list
18-Omar Infante
19-Logan Forsythe
20-Dustin Pedroia
21-Gordan Beckham
Brandon Phillips would be ranked between Beckham and Hicks if he was not on the disabled list
22-Brandon Hicks
23-Luis Valbuena
Despite going hitless yesterday, Infante is on a recent good stretch as this was preceeded by four consecutive multi-hit games. He is sort of a lower end version of Neil Walker as he can be counted for a decent average, probably about half the power (10-12 homers) and tends to be little performance variance year over year
Tier 4:
24-Danny Espinosa
25-Alexi Amarista
26-Aaron Hill
27-Jedd Gyorko
Hill may have gotten hits in the last couple games and there is some promise of power based on prior seasons but i'm not sold on him being a good value. I think going forward his average maxes out at .260 and I don't see the power numbers getting past a dozen homers.
Tier 1:
1-Ian Kinsler
2-Robinson Cano
3-Brian Dozier
4-Jose Altuve
5-Dee Gordon
6-Scooter Gennett
7-Howie Kendrick
As the Brewers have slipped massively, so has Gennett's ownership listing amongst fantasy owners as he's seen a 2% decrease over the last day. While he has not been immune to these struggles (he's been held hit less over the last two days), one thing that keeps him higher on here as that there is some indication he may be one of those players that's able to keep his BABIP above average as he's done this over a couple consecutive seasons.
If given a full season (650 PA), I could see him keeping the batting average in the .315-.320 range with enough pop and a favorable enough ball park to get home runs into double figures
Tier 2:
8-Daniel Murphy
9-Mike Aviles
10-Neil Walker
11-DJ LeMahieu
12-Brian Roberts
Note: Brett Lawrie would be ranked between Murphy & Aviles if he was not on the disabled list
While Walker has never been a star, he has always had a way of quietly being productive at second base where offense stats are at a premium. If you are looking for an upgrade at second and your in one of the 35% of leagues where he's still available, he would be a good pick up but you may have to act fast as he's got a nice five game hitting streak going on. I think he's a good bet to maintain his average in the high .270s and maybe break the 20 home run threshold when all is said and done.
Brian Roberts may only be owned in 3% of leagues but he is a bit under-rated. His average/power numbers aren't going to turn out great .264/9 homers but could see him make enough stolen base & run contributions to be an option worth considering.
Mike Aviles is another deeper cut player (9%) ownership that may be under-valued. He is in the same boat as Roberts where mediocre power/average numbers can be made up somewhat in the stolen base category.
Tier 3:
13-Chase Utley
14-Jason Kipnis
15-Darwin Barney
16-Ben Zobrist
17-Jonathan Schoop
Emilio Bonifacio would be ranked between Schoop and Infante if he was not on disabled list
18-Omar Infante
19-Logan Forsythe
20-Dustin Pedroia
21-Gordan Beckham
Brandon Phillips would be ranked between Beckham and Hicks if he was not on the disabled list
22-Brandon Hicks
23-Luis Valbuena
Despite going hitless yesterday, Infante is on a recent good stretch as this was preceeded by four consecutive multi-hit games. He is sort of a lower end version of Neil Walker as he can be counted for a decent average, probably about half the power (10-12 homers) and tends to be little performance variance year over year
Tier 4:
24-Danny Espinosa
25-Alexi Amarista
26-Aaron Hill
27-Jedd Gyorko
Hill may have gotten hits in the last couple games and there is some promise of power based on prior seasons but i'm not sold on him being a good value. I think going forward his average maxes out at .260 and I don't see the power numbers getting past a dozen homers.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Trendy or Trending: Jesse Chavez, Neil Walker
For today, i'm going to be looking at the Transaction Trends on Yahoo and discussing a couple players that are a runner up to George Springer in the most added player in fantasy (it's not even close). Last night, the story broke that the Astros are calling him up and I was able to get him picked up on my team (replacing bench player Chris Carter) before anyone else was able to get to him and I have a day to decide whether to keep him on the bench or which player on my team will get benched to give him a start (likely to be Michael Brantley)
2014 has been the first chance Chavez has had to start on a regular basis and in three starts he's been very good 1.35 ERA/0.85 WHIP276 ERA+. The one concerning thing on his profile is that he's already been in the MLB for seven years and there wasn't much to suggest he'd be a top level pitcher before this year (78 Career ERA+/1.41 Career WHIP).
Based off early data, he is due for some regression (.255 BABIP) but one early indicator that he may stick around as a starter is that opposing OPS goes down as he gets deeper into the pitch count.
I know that the A's generally know what their doing and he has had a nice start to the season, i'm still not sold on him as he has yet to demonstrate that this can hold up for an entire season, if you need starting pitching it would probably be best to look elsewhere.
I'm a bit surprised it has taken this long for people to pick up Neil Walker. He does play a position that is not very deep defensively in second base and he has produced above average offensive lines over the last four seasons. He has been a solid yet unspectacular player who usually hits for decent average and is good for about 15 home runs per season.
While his batting average is right on his career number (.273), he has seen an early up spike in power (5 in 59 at bats), which has given him a 140 OPS+. While I think the power is likely to slow down he does have a very low BABIP (.233), suggesting he could be in for a good year batting average wise sooner rather than later.
I've had Neil Walker on past teams, if he wasn't already taken in the league i'm in, I would give serious consideration to pick him up. One thing that is easily forgotten is that he is still young (28) and may be in line to have that one career year. His most similar player through age 27 is Bret Boone. While Boone was absolutely brutal during his age 28 year and ended up with a lower career OPS+ than what Walker has right now (101 vs. 112), Boone also had two seasons where he absolutely crushed it and had an OPS+ of 140 or above. Worst case, Walker gives you solid production for a second baseman, best case he has a career year where everything goes right and you get very strong value off the waiver wire.
I've had Neil Walker on past teams, if he wasn't already taken in the league i'm in, I would give serious consideration to pick him up. One thing that is easily forgotten is that he is still young (28) and may be in line to have that one career year. His most similar player through age 27 is Bret Boone. While Boone was absolutely brutal during his age 28 year and ended up with a lower career OPS+ than what Walker has right now (101 vs. 112), Boone also had two seasons where he absolutely crushed it and had an OPS+ of 140 or above. Worst case, Walker gives you solid production for a second baseman, best case he has a career year where everything goes right and you get very strong value off the waiver wire.
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