Some thoughts on today's trendy waiver-wire pick ups:
Javier Baez:
The long-anticipated major league debut for Javier Baez is here. He is 21, full of promise and seems destined to be a star in the long-term. The question remains whether he is destined to be a useful player in the short term.
For season-long players, it depends on how much of a hit your willing to take on batting average. I think at least initially, it's going to be around the .220 range so far (he hit .260 in Triple-A and i'm adjusting 15% decrease based on increase in competition. With that being said, I think he has the ability to immediately contribute on the home run/stolen base side of things. Either way, this appears to be another step the Cubs are taking between the terrible team they are today and the potential contending team they may be in a couple of years.
For daily players, I have two words for you: Coors Field. Despite the drawback in batting average, I have him ranked 59th (out of 322 batters).
Either way, he's worth the pick up regardless of format.
Tyler Flowers:
His value has increased in context (11% ownership) due to a big game against the Rangers. In the long-term, I think this is an over-reaction to one good game. While I think he could hit 20 homers in a season if given the chance to play long-term, even the below average numbers he has this year (90 wRC+) may be above his actual ability as he has benefited from a .380 BABIP. It appears this could be his peak and frankly his peak is not that high. Once the BABIP wears off, he goes from a .252 hitter to flirting with the Mendoza Line.
Wei-Yin Chen:
His last couple starts have come against the Mariners and he has taken advantage by giving up 1 run over 15 1/3 inning. Even with this recent performance, I have him ranked 49th in the Starting Pitcher category. That and his value appears tied primarily to a shiny 12-3 record as he's had the good fortune of being on a first place Baltimore team. Still, i'm not quite sold on him as his next start will be against a stronger (though short-handed Toronto) team and most of the other numbers available indicate that he's a very average pitcher.
Danny Santana:
He just (somehow) keeps hitting, his latest value boost can be seen in his 5-hit outburst against the White Sox on Sunday. While still (not even close) to being sold on him, the rankings i'm doing he's at least moved up to 157 putting him squarely in the middle of the pack.
He could be decent source of home runs and stolen bases, but still projects out to being a .243 hitter if/when his BABIP fueled hot streak runs its course (similar to what's happening with Brock Holt).
Denard Span:
Span keeps on hitting on a steady base (3 straight multi-hit games/4 in the last 5) and in the midst of an 8-game hitting streak. As he keeps on hitting, he still continues to be one of the more picked up players as he's up to 52%. As long as home runs are not what your specifically targeted, he continues to be a solid option
Showing posts with label danny santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label danny santana. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
King Of The Waiver Wire Hill: 7/30
Trying (yet) another new thing. I looked at the most picked up hitters in Yahoo! fantasy this morning and pitted the top eight against each other to project which one has the most projected value.
8) Conor Gillaspie
Currently owned in 19% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues with a 1% uptick over yesterday. He has 10 hits over the last five games which has raised his batting average up to .327. His strong batting average to date has been driven by a .373 BABIP which does not seem to show any indication of slowing down soon (though it is bound to sooner rather than later.
While I think he's capable of at least running into some more home runs, once the BABIP comes down to earth, so will his value. Over 650 PA, his line would look something like:
.263/16 HR/63 RBI/0 SB/69 R
7) Emilio Bonifacio
Currently owned in 31% of leagues with a 2% increase from yesterday. He had plenty of opportunity in yesterday's 16-inning marathon game against the Rockies and he took full advantage going 4-7 scoring two runs, driving in 2 runs and even hitting a home run. Since the Cubs are not even close to contention and Bonifacio is not amongst the rising stars on the farm, the news indicates that he could get traded soon. While that may be good for him as he'd get a chance to play for a winner, this could reduce his value as it is possible his playing time could go down depending on where he gets traded to.
His 650 PA projection is:
.278/3 HR/38 RBI/34 SB/79 R
6) Danny Santana
Currently owned in 32% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. The BABIP fueled good times continued as he went 2 for 5 to move his batting average to .318. The player info data in yahoo included the line of "all Santanta does is find ways to contribute offensively" sounds a lot like the description of "he just wins games" mantra that we heard in the middle of Tebow-mania. He's made this last longer than I thought it would. Maybe you gamble to see if he keeps the hot streak going, but this can't last forever.
Projection:
.239/11 HR/71 RBI/92 R/21 SB
5) Yangervis Solarte
Currently owned in 16% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. Since he moved from the Yankees (awesome hitters park) to Petco Field (the exact opposite of that), it seemed a given that his offensive numbers would take a tumble. Instead, he's hit two homers in the last three games, and scoring 2 of 3 runs in last night's victory over the Cardinals (thank you). Over a full season, I think he would hit:
Also, he could be in for a BABIP related rebound (currently at .269) so it is possible his .257 batting average could move into the .280's.
.287/17 HR/78 RBI/0 SB/70 R
4) Josh Harrison
Currently owned in 56% of leagues, a 12% increase from yesterday. It's safe to say that Josh Harrison is ON FIRE right now. He's homered in three consecutive games which has played a contributing role to helping the Giants in their current free-fall while also making things a bit nerve racking as a Brewers fan (Pirates are currently 1 game out). His projection is:
.275/16 HR/63 RBI/22 SB/79 R
3) Chris Carter
Despite going 0 for 3 last night, Carter saw his ownership rate increase to 40% today.Chris Carter doesn't always come close to hitting the ball, but when he does it goes a long, long way. His batting average is always going to be terrible, but at .212 is more terrible than I think it will be going forward due to his BABIP. Going, forward I think he's closer to a .240 hitter with the potential to hit 35-40 homers depending on playing time. His 650 PA projection is as follows:
.241/37 HR/95 RBI/79 R/2 SB
2) Lucas Duda
Currently owned in 53% of leagues with a 13% increase over yesterday. His bat has been scorching hot over the last week (especially last weekend against the Brewers where his bat was the difference between a series split and the Mets getting swept). I've been a proponent of Duda's value for awhile and everyone else seems to be catching on. He appears to have successfully overcome the fact that he plays on the Mets to become a very good player. His projected 650 PA line is as follows:
.264/25 HR/92 RBI/4 SB/75 RBI
Today's (very surprising) waiver wire king of the hill is:
1) J.P. Arencibia
Currently, owned in 3% of leagues, a 1% increase over yesterday. It is safe to say that Arencibia had a very successful day yesterday as he hit 2 home runs and drove in seven runs yesterday.
Considering that his value going into today was so low and the fact that he was in the majors to begin with had more to do with the reality that pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Rangers this year versus something resembling a track record of success (55 wRC+ in 497 plate apperances for Toronto last year).
While he is an albatross on the batting average side, he's not the .183 hitter currently reflected in his stats. He has a .186 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .245. Adjusting for this, he's closer to a .241 hitter.
He has hit home runs at a decent clip this year (6 in 112 plate appearances) and this appears to be reflective of his home-run hitting ability (15.4% HR/FB rate this year versus 15.2% of in his career).
Based on what he has done in the past, he appears to be more than capable of hitting over 30 home runs over a full season and the number of runs he's driven per at bat both this year and in his career indicate that in the right context/structure/luck, etc. he could drive in north of 100 runs per year.
However, Arencibia's skill set while useful to Fantasy players does not transfer itself well to being a full-time starter. He's drawn walks in a measly 3.6% of his plate appearances. While his .241 batting average would be tolerable to teams if he was more selective at the plate, this projection would also give him a cringe-worthy OBP of .277. Paired with some sub-par defense, he's probably not going to be a full-time starter ever.
With that being said, if you do need extra power (and can stomach a .241 batting average), Arencibia could give you a power boost as he gets regular playing time due to the Rangers injury epidemic.
Will Arencibia defend his crown next time? You'll have to tune in to find out.
All information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo Fantasy!
His 650 PA projection is:
.278/3 HR/38 RBI/34 SB/79 R
6) Danny Santana
Currently owned in 32% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. The BABIP fueled good times continued as he went 2 for 5 to move his batting average to .318. The player info data in yahoo included the line of "all Santanta does is find ways to contribute offensively" sounds a lot like the description of "he just wins games" mantra that we heard in the middle of Tebow-mania. He's made this last longer than I thought it would. Maybe you gamble to see if he keeps the hot streak going, but this can't last forever.
Projection:
.239/11 HR/71 RBI/92 R/21 SB
5) Yangervis Solarte
Currently owned in 16% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. Since he moved from the Yankees (awesome hitters park) to Petco Field (the exact opposite of that), it seemed a given that his offensive numbers would take a tumble. Instead, he's hit two homers in the last three games, and scoring 2 of 3 runs in last night's victory over the Cardinals (thank you). Over a full season, I think he would hit:
Also, he could be in for a BABIP related rebound (currently at .269) so it is possible his .257 batting average could move into the .280's.
.287/17 HR/78 RBI/0 SB/70 R
4) Josh Harrison
Currently owned in 56% of leagues, a 12% increase from yesterday. It's safe to say that Josh Harrison is ON FIRE right now. He's homered in three consecutive games which has played a contributing role to helping the Giants in their current free-fall while also making things a bit nerve racking as a Brewers fan (Pirates are currently 1 game out). His projection is:
.275/16 HR/63 RBI/22 SB/79 R
3) Chris Carter
Despite going 0 for 3 last night, Carter saw his ownership rate increase to 40% today.Chris Carter doesn't always come close to hitting the ball, but when he does it goes a long, long way. His batting average is always going to be terrible, but at .212 is more terrible than I think it will be going forward due to his BABIP. Going, forward I think he's closer to a .240 hitter with the potential to hit 35-40 homers depending on playing time. His 650 PA projection is as follows:
.241/37 HR/95 RBI/79 R/2 SB
2) Lucas Duda
Currently owned in 53% of leagues with a 13% increase over yesterday. His bat has been scorching hot over the last week (especially last weekend against the Brewers where his bat was the difference between a series split and the Mets getting swept). I've been a proponent of Duda's value for awhile and everyone else seems to be catching on. He appears to have successfully overcome the fact that he plays on the Mets to become a very good player. His projected 650 PA line is as follows:
.264/25 HR/92 RBI/4 SB/75 RBI
Today's (very surprising) waiver wire king of the hill is:
1) J.P. Arencibia
Currently, owned in 3% of leagues, a 1% increase over yesterday. It is safe to say that Arencibia had a very successful day yesterday as he hit 2 home runs and drove in seven runs yesterday.
Considering that his value going into today was so low and the fact that he was in the majors to begin with had more to do with the reality that pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Rangers this year versus something resembling a track record of success (55 wRC+ in 497 plate apperances for Toronto last year).
While he is an albatross on the batting average side, he's not the .183 hitter currently reflected in his stats. He has a .186 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .245. Adjusting for this, he's closer to a .241 hitter.
He has hit home runs at a decent clip this year (6 in 112 plate appearances) and this appears to be reflective of his home-run hitting ability (15.4% HR/FB rate this year versus 15.2% of in his career).
Based on what he has done in the past, he appears to be more than capable of hitting over 30 home runs over a full season and the number of runs he's driven per at bat both this year and in his career indicate that in the right context/structure/luck, etc. he could drive in north of 100 runs per year.
However, Arencibia's skill set while useful to Fantasy players does not transfer itself well to being a full-time starter. He's drawn walks in a measly 3.6% of his plate appearances. While his .241 batting average would be tolerable to teams if he was more selective at the plate, this projection would also give him a cringe-worthy OBP of .277. Paired with some sub-par defense, he's probably not going to be a full-time starter ever.
With that being said, if you do need extra power (and can stomach a .241 batting average), Arencibia could give you a power boost as he gets regular playing time due to the Rangers injury epidemic.
Will Arencibia defend his crown next time? You'll have to tune in to find out.
All information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo Fantasy!
Monday, July 28, 2014
Outfielder Rankings: 7/28
So i'm going to experiment with this by reviewing things on a position by position level, ranking the top 20 players and then highlighting some players that are very available (defined as less than 50% ownership inYahoo! leagues. The top 20 list for outfielders is as follows. For context, 129 players were in this section of outfield rankings
1-Mike Trout
2-Nelson Cruz
3-Ryan Braun
4-Michael Brantley
5-Andrew McCutchen
6-Giancarlo Stanton
7-Jose Bautista
8-Carlos Gomez
9-Adam Jones
10-Brandon Moss
11-Torii Hunter
12-Billy Hamilton
13-Melky Cabrera
14-Yoenis Cespedes
15-Hunter Pence
16-Justin Upton
17-Jacoby Ellsbury
18-Jayson Werth
19-Charlie Blackmon
20-Matt Holliday
Some players of interest that are likely available (owned in less than 50 % of Yahoo! Leagues)
Domonic Brown (38%)
Score (with 100 being #1 ranking) 49
Ranking: 67 (out of 129)
Last year, Brown at least provided some power as he did hit 27 home runs. 2014 has been a different case as he has struggled (then again who hasn't on the Phillies). Granted, he has had some bad luck (.266 BABIP versus .275 career) and a 8% HR/FB rate (versus 13.3% career) but even with those two pieces factored in, there's just not that much there. Over a full-season (650 plate appearances) my projection is that he would hit 21 home runs but that would come with a .239 batting average. With about 90 starting outfield slots available in the bigs, he's barely cutting it as a starter in real life (and probably only there due to the quality of the team he is playing on) let alone anyone's fantasy team.
Verdict: Pass
Denard Span (35%)
Score: 54
Ranking: 46
While Span does have a slightly lower ownership rate, I think that he is a slightly better option (though still very borderline for an outfielder). The good aspects are that he will steal you some bases and score some runs (even if the Nationals offense can be a bit cold), the negative is that if you need power, he's not your guy. Over a full season I could see the following line
.288/ 5 HR/ 38 RBI 24 SB 88 R
Verdict: Buy (If you need some stolen bases but are okay on power numbers)
Emilio Bonifacio (30%)
Score: 44
Rank: 85
Prior to yesterday's 0-4 performance against the Cardinals, Bonifacio was ona nice five game hitting streak. With that being said, his value is extremely limited as he can help you with stolen bases but is likely to give you nominal contributions in the other four categories.
Verdict: Pass
Danny Santana (29%)
Score: 40
Rank: 91
His ownership rates continue to creep up (+2% since yesterday) as he has hits in six of his last seven games. As long as he gets picked up, it also warrants to keep pointing out that he is being fueled by a .394 BABIP. Bottom line, don't be surprised when he starts struggling either later this year or next year. My projection for him over 650 PA is:
.240/11 HR/64 RBI/76 R/22 SB
There are some stolen bases in play, maybe the occasional home run but once his BABIP regresses back to normal he may struggle to even get in the lineup every day.
Verdict: Pass
Josh Reddick (24%)
Score: 42
Rank: 88
Even with Reddick struggling this year, I did sort of expect his ranking to be a bit higher. His HR/FB ratio has been lower than his career totals which would put his expected home runs this year at 7 instead of 5. Even at a .245 batting average, one red flag I see is that his BABIP .291 is actually higher than his career total of .273.
Over a full season, his expected line would be
.240/21 HR/76 RBI/6 SB/78 R
Basically, the AL equivalent to Domonic Brown. He may give you 20 home runs if things break right but getting him to provide anything else may be a bit much to ask for.
Verdict: Pass
All research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy
1-Mike Trout
2-Nelson Cruz
3-Ryan Braun
4-Michael Brantley
5-Andrew McCutchen
6-Giancarlo Stanton
7-Jose Bautista
8-Carlos Gomez
9-Adam Jones
10-Brandon Moss
11-Torii Hunter
12-Billy Hamilton
13-Melky Cabrera
14-Yoenis Cespedes
15-Hunter Pence
16-Justin Upton
17-Jacoby Ellsbury
18-Jayson Werth
19-Charlie Blackmon
20-Matt Holliday
Some players of interest that are likely available (owned in less than 50 % of Yahoo! Leagues)
Domonic Brown (38%)
Score (with 100 being #1 ranking) 49
Ranking: 67 (out of 129)
Last year, Brown at least provided some power as he did hit 27 home runs. 2014 has been a different case as he has struggled (then again who hasn't on the Phillies). Granted, he has had some bad luck (.266 BABIP versus .275 career) and a 8% HR/FB rate (versus 13.3% career) but even with those two pieces factored in, there's just not that much there. Over a full-season (650 plate appearances) my projection is that he would hit 21 home runs but that would come with a .239 batting average. With about 90 starting outfield slots available in the bigs, he's barely cutting it as a starter in real life (and probably only there due to the quality of the team he is playing on) let alone anyone's fantasy team.
Verdict: Pass
Denard Span (35%)
Score: 54
Ranking: 46
While Span does have a slightly lower ownership rate, I think that he is a slightly better option (though still very borderline for an outfielder). The good aspects are that he will steal you some bases and score some runs (even if the Nationals offense can be a bit cold), the negative is that if you need power, he's not your guy. Over a full season I could see the following line
.288/ 5 HR/ 38 RBI 24 SB 88 R
Verdict: Buy (If you need some stolen bases but are okay on power numbers)
Emilio Bonifacio (30%)
Score: 44
Rank: 85
Prior to yesterday's 0-4 performance against the Cardinals, Bonifacio was ona nice five game hitting streak. With that being said, his value is extremely limited as he can help you with stolen bases but is likely to give you nominal contributions in the other four categories.
Verdict: Pass
Danny Santana (29%)
Score: 40
Rank: 91
His ownership rates continue to creep up (+2% since yesterday) as he has hits in six of his last seven games. As long as he gets picked up, it also warrants to keep pointing out that he is being fueled by a .394 BABIP. Bottom line, don't be surprised when he starts struggling either later this year or next year. My projection for him over 650 PA is:
.240/11 HR/64 RBI/76 R/22 SB
There are some stolen bases in play, maybe the occasional home run but once his BABIP regresses back to normal he may struggle to even get in the lineup every day.
Verdict: Pass
Josh Reddick (24%)
Score: 42
Rank: 88
Even with Reddick struggling this year, I did sort of expect his ranking to be a bit higher. His HR/FB ratio has been lower than his career totals which would put his expected home runs this year at 7 instead of 5. Even at a .245 batting average, one red flag I see is that his BABIP .291 is actually higher than his career total of .273.
Over a full season, his expected line would be
.240/21 HR/76 RBI/6 SB/78 R
Basically, the AL equivalent to Domonic Brown. He may give you 20 home runs if things break right but getting him to provide anything else may be a bit much to ask for.
Verdict: Pass
All research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Totally Wired: Around the Lineup 7/24
A quick look at some players and whether they are worth a shot:
Catcher:
John Jaso:
Rank: 207
Score: 46.8
Jaso has been red hot over the last few days with six hits and four rbi over the last threee games. I think he's worth a play short term (currently owned in 17% of leagues) as the A's have one more game against the Astros, a series with the Rangers then another one with the Astors.
For a long term play, it is a bit more debatable. Currently his average is doing nicely at .289 but he also has a .337 BABIP (compared to .295 career total) projecting himself out to a hitter in the .250-.255 range. Also, the power numbers this year are higher than his baseline as he has a 9.9% HR/FB Ratio (Compared to 7.6% for his career). After adjusting for this, his projected line over a full season is something like:
.254/ 71R/ 12 HR/ 65 RBI/ 5 SB
Verdict: Short-term buy due to weak schedule but not recommended long term
First Base:
Lonnie Chisenhall
Rank: 175
Score: 50.5
At this point he's a player that people are changing their minds on one way or another. While primarily a third basemen he has been one of the most picked up (and most dropped first basemen today).
He is definitely in a cold snap as he has one hit over the last four games. It appears this is the start of his numbers regressing back to normal after a very strong first half. His projected numbers over a full season are as follows:
.266/ 67 R/ 21 HR/ 66 RBI/ 4 SB
While he's not a .300 hitter he's not going to be an albatross in this category either. While his BABIP numbers have been over the norm his HR/FB rate this year (10.1%) is actually smaller than his career total (10.9%). While he's not going to provide much speed, he is capable of hitting 20 homers per year.
Vedict: Sell (First Base), Buy (Third Base)
Second Base:
Danny Santana
Rank: 274
Score: 39
Yes, I realize Santana has a nice .325 batting average, is eligible in two positions (second base & shortstop) where options are limited and even steals bases on the side.
What I also realize that his BABIP is at .407 which ain't going to stick around forever and he has single figure home run power. Under the assumption that his base-line babip is at .300. That moves his average to a whopping .230 while still leaving single digit home run power (is it worth the stolen bases at that point?). I say no.
Verdict: Go in the opposite direction, then run
Third Base:
Josh Harrison
Rank: 184
Score: 49.3
Harrison had a big Wednesday getting two hits & two rbi's in a key win over the Dodgers. He's also appeared to sort of be in the right place and the right time to get big game-winning moments.
He's also been more lucky than good in some respects and would expect him to regress at some point. His current average (.291) is projected to be .262 going forward. The only upside is that he does provide stolen bases (22) but otherwise nothing stands out that he is a must aquire.
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
Erick Aybar
Rank: 84
Score: 61.7
Not exactly a sleeper with 73% Yahoo! ownership but he has been added to 785 teams today (as of 12:12 PM PST).
What he lacks in power (7 home runs projected), he makes up in the other categories. He's projected to have a decent average (.290), and lucky enough to play on a strong Angels team which will lead him to be an asset in runs & rbis while also providing about 20 steals. If your in one of the 27% of leagues where he is available, go ahead and get him.
Verdict: Buy
Outfield:
Denard Span
Rank: 137
Score: 54.4
Whether to pick him up or not depends on your particular needs. I see him as a two category contributor (Runs & Stolen Bases) while having an okay impact on batting average (.278). However, if your looking for power, its better to look elsewhere. Granted he's going to do better than 1 home run per 379 plate appearances ( he has a 1% HR/FB rate versus 3.8% for his career) but he's not a contributor here.
Verdict: Buy (Runs, Stolen Bases), Sell (Home Runs)
Corey Dickerson
Rank: 161
Score: 51.4
Yes, Dickerson has had a nice season so far but I currently think his value is over-rated. That shiny, .336 batting average was brought to you by a BABIP of .399. That number's likely to go down to the .250's going forward. That power he's displayed? Yes, he's going to have an advantage as long as he's with the Rockies of getting the Coors Field effect, he's also had the benefit of a very high 20% HR/FB rate.
Verdict: Pass
Christian Yelich
Rank: 221
Score: 47.7
After looking at the numbers closer, i'm taking more of a conservative approach on Yelich. He has shown hints of being one of those players able to maintain a high BABIP over the longterm (.380 in 2013 & .348 this year) but we still have less than 1000 PA sample size. If he turns out to be one of those players thats always able to maintain a high BABIP, his average should stay in the .280 range, if not its closer to .243.
The same goes for his power. He's had a HR/FB rate over 16% his first two years. If this holds great, if it regresses to around 10%, he could project to single digit home run power. If both of these regressions apply, he's someone to pass on.
With this ranking, I do run the risk of being totally wrong, looking like an idiot and regretting giving this low of a ranking. However, i'd like to see a larger sample size with the above trends before looking elsewhere.
Verdict: Sell (with higher than usual risk of being very, very, wrong)
Catcher:
John Jaso:
Rank: 207
Score: 46.8
Jaso has been red hot over the last few days with six hits and four rbi over the last threee games. I think he's worth a play short term (currently owned in 17% of leagues) as the A's have one more game against the Astros, a series with the Rangers then another one with the Astors.
For a long term play, it is a bit more debatable. Currently his average is doing nicely at .289 but he also has a .337 BABIP (compared to .295 career total) projecting himself out to a hitter in the .250-.255 range. Also, the power numbers this year are higher than his baseline as he has a 9.9% HR/FB Ratio (Compared to 7.6% for his career). After adjusting for this, his projected line over a full season is something like:
.254/ 71R/ 12 HR/ 65 RBI/ 5 SB
Verdict: Short-term buy due to weak schedule but not recommended long term
First Base:
Lonnie Chisenhall
Rank: 175
Score: 50.5
At this point he's a player that people are changing their minds on one way or another. While primarily a third basemen he has been one of the most picked up (and most dropped first basemen today).
He is definitely in a cold snap as he has one hit over the last four games. It appears this is the start of his numbers regressing back to normal after a very strong first half. His projected numbers over a full season are as follows:
.266/ 67 R/ 21 HR/ 66 RBI/ 4 SB
While he's not a .300 hitter he's not going to be an albatross in this category either. While his BABIP numbers have been over the norm his HR/FB rate this year (10.1%) is actually smaller than his career total (10.9%). While he's not going to provide much speed, he is capable of hitting 20 homers per year.
Vedict: Sell (First Base), Buy (Third Base)
Second Base:
Danny Santana
Rank: 274
Score: 39
Yes, I realize Santana has a nice .325 batting average, is eligible in two positions (second base & shortstop) where options are limited and even steals bases on the side.
What I also realize that his BABIP is at .407 which ain't going to stick around forever and he has single figure home run power. Under the assumption that his base-line babip is at .300. That moves his average to a whopping .230 while still leaving single digit home run power (is it worth the stolen bases at that point?). I say no.
Verdict: Go in the opposite direction, then run
Third Base:
Josh Harrison
Rank: 184
Score: 49.3
Harrison had a big Wednesday getting two hits & two rbi's in a key win over the Dodgers. He's also appeared to sort of be in the right place and the right time to get big game-winning moments.
He's also been more lucky than good in some respects and would expect him to regress at some point. His current average (.291) is projected to be .262 going forward. The only upside is that he does provide stolen bases (22) but otherwise nothing stands out that he is a must aquire.
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
Erick Aybar
Rank: 84
Score: 61.7
Not exactly a sleeper with 73% Yahoo! ownership but he has been added to 785 teams today (as of 12:12 PM PST).
What he lacks in power (7 home runs projected), he makes up in the other categories. He's projected to have a decent average (.290), and lucky enough to play on a strong Angels team which will lead him to be an asset in runs & rbis while also providing about 20 steals. If your in one of the 27% of leagues where he is available, go ahead and get him.
Verdict: Buy
Outfield:
Denard Span
Rank: 137
Score: 54.4
Whether to pick him up or not depends on your particular needs. I see him as a two category contributor (Runs & Stolen Bases) while having an okay impact on batting average (.278). However, if your looking for power, its better to look elsewhere. Granted he's going to do better than 1 home run per 379 plate appearances ( he has a 1% HR/FB rate versus 3.8% for his career) but he's not a contributor here.
Verdict: Buy (Runs, Stolen Bases), Sell (Home Runs)
Corey Dickerson
Rank: 161
Score: 51.4
Yes, Dickerson has had a nice season so far but I currently think his value is over-rated. That shiny, .336 batting average was brought to you by a BABIP of .399. That number's likely to go down to the .250's going forward. That power he's displayed? Yes, he's going to have an advantage as long as he's with the Rockies of getting the Coors Field effect, he's also had the benefit of a very high 20% HR/FB rate.
Verdict: Pass
Christian Yelich
Rank: 221
Score: 47.7
After looking at the numbers closer, i'm taking more of a conservative approach on Yelich. He has shown hints of being one of those players able to maintain a high BABIP over the longterm (.380 in 2013 & .348 this year) but we still have less than 1000 PA sample size. If he turns out to be one of those players thats always able to maintain a high BABIP, his average should stay in the .280 range, if not its closer to .243.
The same goes for his power. He's had a HR/FB rate over 16% his first two years. If this holds great, if it regresses to around 10%, he could project to single digit home run power. If both of these regressions apply, he's someone to pass on.
With this ranking, I do run the risk of being totally wrong, looking like an idiot and regretting giving this low of a ranking. However, i'd like to see a larger sample size with the above trends before looking elsewhere.
Verdict: Sell (with higher than usual risk of being very, very, wrong)
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Musings, Ramblings and other stuff: Danny Santana
Danny Santana:
Why he's getting picked up by fantasy players:
He's in the middle of a 8-game hitting streak which has included a couple of homers and a 5-RBI game, also having a .372 average and eligibility in a few places (Second Base, Shortstop & Outfield doesn't hurt either.
Where he's been, what to expect going forward:
This is his first taste of major league action and the battle of the unknown is currently going in his favor. He's definitely more lucky than good. While he had higher BABIPs in the minor leagues, there is no way his .372 average/.476 BABIP holds up over the whole season and his minor league numbers indicate to not look to much into the home run department as he never had more than 8 in a season and in the minors, he never had a wRC+ above 113 although he could be good for double figures in stolen bases.
Basically, once pitchers get tape on him to figure him out and figure out that they don't necessarily have to throw him strikes 5.4% walk rate is roughly in line with what he did in the minors, he's likely to be another middle infielder in the crowd. If your thinking about picking him up in fantasy, he may give you a few stolen bases but don't expect too much power or batting average.
Other Things About The Twins that (at least) I find Interesting:
The Twins, while they haven't been great have been better than expected at 31-33 which has them 3 1/5 games behind in the AL Central. They have been somewhat lucky as their expected record (per baseball-reference is 30-34).
The Twins AAA team (Rochester) is doing better at 37-28. The hitter with the most plate appearances is Eric Farris who I sort of remember as he had a couple cups of coffee with the Brewers and spent a few years playing in Nashville and at 806 minor league games and 10 plate appearances appears to be a career minor-leaguer. I also noticed he isn't the only Brewers alumni playing in Rochester (Brad Nelson being the other). Nelson appears to be the consummate definition of the AAAA player as he has 200+ minor league home runs and as the majors are concerned a bust as a prospect (he was a top 50 prospect in 2003 & 2004).
One other thing about the Twins that I at least somewhat pay attention to is the fact that they have two former Cal Poly players on their roster (Kevin Correia & Casey Fien). It always trips my mind that there are some players that are in the big leagues that used to live in one of the same towns that I used to live in.
Why he's getting picked up by fantasy players:
He's in the middle of a 8-game hitting streak which has included a couple of homers and a 5-RBI game, also having a .372 average and eligibility in a few places (Second Base, Shortstop & Outfield doesn't hurt either.
Where he's been, what to expect going forward:
This is his first taste of major league action and the battle of the unknown is currently going in his favor. He's definitely more lucky than good. While he had higher BABIPs in the minor leagues, there is no way his .372 average/.476 BABIP holds up over the whole season and his minor league numbers indicate to not look to much into the home run department as he never had more than 8 in a season and in the minors, he never had a wRC+ above 113 although he could be good for double figures in stolen bases.
Basically, once pitchers get tape on him to figure him out and figure out that they don't necessarily have to throw him strikes 5.4% walk rate is roughly in line with what he did in the minors, he's likely to be another middle infielder in the crowd. If your thinking about picking him up in fantasy, he may give you a few stolen bases but don't expect too much power or batting average.
Other Things About The Twins that (at least) I find Interesting:
The Twins, while they haven't been great have been better than expected at 31-33 which has them 3 1/5 games behind in the AL Central. They have been somewhat lucky as their expected record (per baseball-reference is 30-34).
The Twins AAA team (Rochester) is doing better at 37-28. The hitter with the most plate appearances is Eric Farris who I sort of remember as he had a couple cups of coffee with the Brewers and spent a few years playing in Nashville and at 806 minor league games and 10 plate appearances appears to be a career minor-leaguer. I also noticed he isn't the only Brewers alumni playing in Rochester (Brad Nelson being the other). Nelson appears to be the consummate definition of the AAAA player as he has 200+ minor league home runs and as the majors are concerned a bust as a prospect (he was a top 50 prospect in 2003 & 2004).
One other thing about the Twins that I at least somewhat pay attention to is the fact that they have two former Cal Poly players on their roster (Kevin Correia & Casey Fien). It always trips my mind that there are some players that are in the big leagues that used to live in one of the same towns that I used to live in.
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