A look at some popular pick-ups. All numbers referenced were found on fangraphs.com and ownership percentage numbers referenced found on Yahoo! Fantasy
CATCHER:
Dioner Navarro:
Currently owned in 28% of leagues. The last few days have been very good to Navarro as he has homered in his last two games and has an OPS north of 1.000 in his last five games.
Is this a sign of things to come or has he reached a rare peak. So far, his batting average is at .283 but his BABIP of .302 is well above his career total of .278 and he has gotten moderately lucky on his HR/FB rate which is 9.4% compared to 7.8% for his career. He is also approaching his career high for plate appearances which was 470 for the 2008 Rays.
Over 470 plate appearances, and adjusting for his normal numbers, I think he would have a line of:
.262/.336/.383 10 HR 59 RBI 35 R 2 SB
Bottom line is that you may get a decent batting average and possibly double-digit home runs but I don't think he'll be close to the top flight option that he's been playing like over the last week.
FIRST BASE:
Kennys Vargas:
Currently owned in 40% of leagues and getting close to playing himself off the list (the minimum is 50% ownership). He has provided a spark to the Twins lineup since being called up but can he keep this up. The main red flags are that his BABIP (.389) and HR/FB rate (18.2%) indicate that he may be playing over his head and his low walk rate (2.8%) indicate that his success may be short-lived. His projection is for 520 plate appearances (his career high from 2013 high A+ ball).
.247/.275/.444 12 HR 87 RBI 53 R
The main thing keeping his projected numbers down are that it's too early to tell if his 18.2% HR/FB rate is indicative of his actual abilities. For players with less than 1,000 plate appearances, i'll typically assume a 10% HR/FB rate baseline. Also, if he becomes more patient at the plate and his walk rates move closer to his minor league totals, this would lead to a much more optimistic outlook.
SECOND BASE:
Joe Panik:
Currently owned in 14% of leagues. He has hit for limited power so far but a recent hot streak has moved his batting average to .318. The main question is whether he can keep this up as he does have a relatively high BABIP (.354). His projection is for 605 plate appearances (his career high in the minors for 2012):
.269/.341/.347 12 HR 40 RBI 61 R
I think he'll be a reasonably valuable player for the Giants as I think he'll do just enough on offense to justify playing him (so far his defense appears to be solid). The question is whether the power will develop. It could very possibly turn out that even double-digit home run power may be overly optimistic. Again, this is based on small sample size as he currently sports a low HR/FB rate of 2.6% but I attempted to work towards 10% with the absence of further data.
THIRD BASE:
Luis Valbuena:
Currently owned in 22% of leagues and had the benefit of mashing against a Brewers team that seems determined to self-destruct. Currently, he is at his career high of 462 plate appearances so I am going to factor this into the below projection.
.228/.328/.374 12 HR 44 RBI 51 R
While the other players listed up have at least a debatable level of value, I think Valbuena has reached his peak performance which even then has some flaws. Despite a .248 batting average this is above his estimated actual ability as his BABIP (.290) is higher than his career total. He has over-acheived in the home run department and I think he's more of a low double-digit player. The one good thing going for him is that he is at least patient at the plate.
SHORTSTOP:
Mookie Betts:
Currently owned in 29% of leagues. Betts has played relatively well since being called up by the Red Sox. The question is what to expect going forward. My projection (based on 551 plate appearances..which he got in the minors last year is:
.284/.374/.466 17 HR 52 RBI 71 R 20 SB
Going into 2015, Betts is going to be a good bet (pun not intended). Nothing in his numbers indicates that he's playing over his head (.288 BABIP/11.4% HR/FB Rate), he's shown that he's not going to swing at everything (9% BB Rate) and he's shown that he can hit for a reasonable amount of power and steal double digit bases. Depending on playing time and how the wind blows, he could easily be a 20/20 player next year.
OUTFIELD:
Juan Lagares:
Currently owned in 8% of leagues but has himself a nice little 4 game hit streak. His projection is based off his career high in plate appearances (421) from last year.
.245/.290/.353 9 HR 39 RBI 39 R 9 SB
This is not meant to devalue what Lagares contributes to the Mets with his defense (he has been 4 wins above replacement despite having a wRC+ of 102). For fantasy players, I don't think he's going to help all that much
While I think there's the potential of him hitting a few more home runs, his BABIP is running a little high and I think he's closer to a .245 hitter. Ad in low walk rate, modest home run/stolen bases totals he appears headed to being an elite defensive player (but not so much on offense.
Showing posts with label dioner navarro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dioner navarro. Show all posts
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Friday, July 25, 2014
Totally Wired: 7/25
Catcher:
Dioner Navarro
Rank: 247
Score: 42.3
Currently owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues. He appears to be on track to get more than 400 plate appearances in a season for the first time since 2009. While he is more than capable of reaching double-figures in home runs, there's not that much beyond that. He does get a small rbi boost from being on a Toronto team that scores lots of runs but he may hurt a bit on the batting average side (.253) going forward.
Verdict: Pass
First Base:
Ben Paulsen
Rank: 176
Score: 50.4
Paulsen was called up at the beginning of this week to fill in for Justin Morneau while he is on the disabled list. Even with a small uptick in ownership this morning, he is still at a whopping 0%.
So far, he has done good for himself going 5 for 11 and driving in a couple of runs. Since the work i've done is based on having larger samples of MLB data, this is one of my first forays of using minor league totals to predict future performance. I took his performance in AAA in 2014 and pro-rated it to 650 plate appearances. I also adjusted his batting average from his .358 BABIP in the minors to an area that is assumed to have an average BABIP of .320. From there, I took all categories (except for stolen bases) and reduced these totals by 15% to account for an increase in difficulty which gave me the following projection over a full season:
.221/ 68 R/ 20 HR/ 79 RBI/5 SB
Given that he also has the benefit of playing at Coors Field, I think best case scenario is of him as a one category contributor in home runs but the projected batting average at this point is too low to give him a serious look.
Verdict: Pass
Second Base:
Jed Lowrie
Rank: 128
Score: 55.5
On the surface, Lowrie has had a disappointing 2014 season. Looking at the numbers deeper, he's closer to a good buy-low candidate in the 46% of leagues where he his available. Where there's the .243 average on the surface, I see a slightly below normal BABIP that adjusts my prediction going forward to a better (though not great .263 average). Where the surface stats show only five homers which is somewhat below historical norms, I see that this is being pulled back by a 3.5% HR/FB Ratio (career total is 6.6%).
Over a full season, I could see him hitting .263 with 20 Homers. Playing on a solid Oakland team also helps out his value somewhat as he also projects to 84 Runs & 71 RBI over a full season and the option to plug him in either at second or shortstop.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Juan Francisco
Rank: 119
Score: 56.7
Francisco had a huge game yesterday and it's possible he could be embarking on another hot streak. While i'm unsure whether he would ever play full time over a full season due to his streakiness as a hitter and his atrocious "defense" it would be interesting to see how it would turn out.
This year he is striking out more than ever (38.6% of the time) but has shown a modest increase in walking (8.3% to 8.7%). Over the course of a full season, the Zeplen Dean system projects him to hit about .240 while hitting 29 home runs.
The home runs are nice but the question you got to ask yourself is how much of a hit can you absorb on the batting average front. He may be worth picking up speculatively to see if his bat will still hot over the next few weeks but i'm not sure if he's a long term solution.
Verdict: Buy for the Short Term
Shortstop:
Derek Jeter
Rank: 119
Score: 57
One of the last chances I may have to discuss how over-rated Derek Jeter is. While his defense always has and always will be over-rated, I think there's a good chance that his offense numbers will be relatively strong the rest of the year. His BABIP is below career ranges and it is possible he could hit .300 going forward while showing a modest increase in power (his HR/FB rate this year is well below career norms). Even without pitchers lobbing fastballs over the middle of the plate, he may be a good addition as he closes out his career....well unless they start counting defensive stats in fantasy.
Verdict: Buy (Reluctantly saying this)
Outfield:
Seth Smith
Rank: 160
Score: 51.8
Seth Smith has been the beneficiary of strong BABIP fortune this year which is starting to move back to normal totals. While the Padres missed the opportunity to sell him at the highest possible value, i'm not sure how much he has for fantasy. There's always going to be the risk of less plate appearances as he basically only hits rightys and while he has modest power, anything over 15 in a given year may be a bit much to ask.
Verdict: Sell
Adam Eaton
Rank: 278
Score 38.3
Batting average that is inflated by BABIP? Check. Single-digit home run power? Check. Promise of strong stolen base totals but likely to not get past 20 per year? Check. Going to look elsewhere for an extra outfielder? Check
Verdict: Sell
Khris Davis
Rank: 59
Score: 65.5
Davis launched a home run last night against the Mets. Since he is another player that tends to hit home runs in bunches, he's likely worth picking up at least in the short term. His batting average is in the low .250s for better or worse. This season, he has shown that his power is for real as he's already at 17 home runs. In his career, he's had a 20% HR/FB ratio (16.7% this year). Since he only has 484 career plate appearances, I tried to adjust for a 10% HR/FB ratio which somewhat reduces his ranking but if your in one of the 32% of leagues where he is available, he is definitely a good upgrade.
Verdict: Buy
Dioner Navarro
Rank: 247
Score: 42.3
Currently owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues. He appears to be on track to get more than 400 plate appearances in a season for the first time since 2009. While he is more than capable of reaching double-figures in home runs, there's not that much beyond that. He does get a small rbi boost from being on a Toronto team that scores lots of runs but he may hurt a bit on the batting average side (.253) going forward.
Verdict: Pass
First Base:
Ben Paulsen
Rank: 176
Score: 50.4
Paulsen was called up at the beginning of this week to fill in for Justin Morneau while he is on the disabled list. Even with a small uptick in ownership this morning, he is still at a whopping 0%.
So far, he has done good for himself going 5 for 11 and driving in a couple of runs. Since the work i've done is based on having larger samples of MLB data, this is one of my first forays of using minor league totals to predict future performance. I took his performance in AAA in 2014 and pro-rated it to 650 plate appearances. I also adjusted his batting average from his .358 BABIP in the minors to an area that is assumed to have an average BABIP of .320. From there, I took all categories (except for stolen bases) and reduced these totals by 15% to account for an increase in difficulty which gave me the following projection over a full season:
.221/ 68 R/ 20 HR/ 79 RBI/5 SB
Given that he also has the benefit of playing at Coors Field, I think best case scenario is of him as a one category contributor in home runs but the projected batting average at this point is too low to give him a serious look.
Verdict: Pass
Second Base:
Jed Lowrie
Rank: 128
Score: 55.5
On the surface, Lowrie has had a disappointing 2014 season. Looking at the numbers deeper, he's closer to a good buy-low candidate in the 46% of leagues where he his available. Where there's the .243 average on the surface, I see a slightly below normal BABIP that adjusts my prediction going forward to a better (though not great .263 average). Where the surface stats show only five homers which is somewhat below historical norms, I see that this is being pulled back by a 3.5% HR/FB Ratio (career total is 6.6%).
Over a full season, I could see him hitting .263 with 20 Homers. Playing on a solid Oakland team also helps out his value somewhat as he also projects to 84 Runs & 71 RBI over a full season and the option to plug him in either at second or shortstop.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Juan Francisco
Rank: 119
Score: 56.7
Francisco had a huge game yesterday and it's possible he could be embarking on another hot streak. While i'm unsure whether he would ever play full time over a full season due to his streakiness as a hitter and his atrocious "defense" it would be interesting to see how it would turn out.
This year he is striking out more than ever (38.6% of the time) but has shown a modest increase in walking (8.3% to 8.7%). Over the course of a full season, the Zeplen Dean system projects him to hit about .240 while hitting 29 home runs.
The home runs are nice but the question you got to ask yourself is how much of a hit can you absorb on the batting average front. He may be worth picking up speculatively to see if his bat will still hot over the next few weeks but i'm not sure if he's a long term solution.
Verdict: Buy for the Short Term
Shortstop:
Derek Jeter
Rank: 119
Score: 57
One of the last chances I may have to discuss how over-rated Derek Jeter is. While his defense always has and always will be over-rated, I think there's a good chance that his offense numbers will be relatively strong the rest of the year. His BABIP is below career ranges and it is possible he could hit .300 going forward while showing a modest increase in power (his HR/FB rate this year is well below career norms). Even without pitchers lobbing fastballs over the middle of the plate, he may be a good addition as he closes out his career....well unless they start counting defensive stats in fantasy.
Verdict: Buy (Reluctantly saying this)
Outfield:
Seth Smith
Rank: 160
Score: 51.8
Seth Smith has been the beneficiary of strong BABIP fortune this year which is starting to move back to normal totals. While the Padres missed the opportunity to sell him at the highest possible value, i'm not sure how much he has for fantasy. There's always going to be the risk of less plate appearances as he basically only hits rightys and while he has modest power, anything over 15 in a given year may be a bit much to ask.
Verdict: Sell
Adam Eaton
Rank: 278
Score 38.3
Batting average that is inflated by BABIP? Check. Single-digit home run power? Check. Promise of strong stolen base totals but likely to not get past 20 per year? Check. Going to look elsewhere for an extra outfielder? Check
Verdict: Sell
Khris Davis
Rank: 59
Score: 65.5
Davis launched a home run last night against the Mets. Since he is another player that tends to hit home runs in bunches, he's likely worth picking up at least in the short term. His batting average is in the low .250s for better or worse. This season, he has shown that his power is for real as he's already at 17 home runs. In his career, he's had a 20% HR/FB ratio (16.7% this year). Since he only has 484 career plate appearances, I tried to adjust for a 10% HR/FB ratio which somewhat reduces his ranking but if your in one of the 32% of leagues where he is available, he is definitely a good upgrade.
Verdict: Buy
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