Trendy Waiver Wire Pick-Ups: 8/20/14

A quick look at some trendy pick-ups today:

Carl Crawford:

Currently owned in 46% of leagues and seeing increasing interest after having a pretty awesome day in yesterday's win over the Padres.

The question is whether or not he is worth all this additional interest. The one thing that has to be on the back of everyone's mind is the excess of Dodgers outfielders which does make fitting everyone in for playing time to be a challenge.

He has had a very strong August (.344 batting average) which has helped improve his overall numbers. Even with that, his BABIP this year (.300) is below his .326 career total. Even though his average is at .268 currently, I could see that getting into the .290 range. While he isn't going to provide much power (12 homers projected over a full season), he is still a viable option to help in the Runs & Stolen Bases category and is still capable of being a top-100 player and a likely upgrade to many teams.

Jedd Gyorko:

Currently owned in 49% of leagues and his stock is also the beneficiary of a very strong performance in last night's Dodgers-Padres game (though his team was on the losing end).

His early season struggles were highly related to un-naturally low BABIP, which is starting to course correct itself, his batting average for the year has even gotten above the Mendoza Line! He's also made some positive moves in my rankings as he's gone from 206th to 154th. He's never going to be a major asset at batting average (projected to be .253) but he is a good buy-low option because he's better than what his .203 batting average indicates and he has the scarce asset of power at the second base position (he's capable of hitting 25 homers over a full season). While his value is lower than Crawford's, he is capable of providing a boost in home run category for fantasy owners.

Matt Shoemaker:

Currently owned in 31% of leagues. Initially, I was a bit skeptical of his value as he has an 11-4 record despite the ERA- & FIP- numbers of fangraphs indicating that he's been an average pitcher.

While he does have some value for win inflation due to being on a strong Angels team, there is some substance. He's been better than what is 3.84 ERA indicates and I think he's closer to 3.5 in this area (42nd out of 112 pitchers), he's a good source of strikeouts (8.72 per 9 this year and ranked 18th in strikeouts for my rankings and he's shown the ability to limit walks. Going forward, he appears to be more set up for success than I was expecting before looking at the numbers.

Brandon McCarthy:

Currently owned in 42% of leagues and coming off three consecutive starts of giving up 2 earned runs or less and striking out at least seven hitters. This has helped him improve his spot in my rankings as he went from 53rd to 42nd.

Even with his recent strong play, his overall numbers are still obscuring how strong he is overall which still qualifies him as a strong under the radar pickup. His ERA for the year is still at 4.24, primarily inflated by high BABIP & HR/FB rates. The projection has his ERA closer to 3.37.

Oswaldo Arcia:

Currently owned in 7% of leagues. Despite homering  in his last three games, i'm not quite sold on his value as I have him ranked 211th among batters. While I do think he's capable of hitting 25-30 homers per season, i'm not convinced he'll be of help in the batting average category (his .230 average is close to the projection of .236), he rarely steals any bases and playing on a weak offensive team like the Twins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark of Target Field deflates his ceiling for RBIs. If you need extra home runs but are otherwise strong, he may be a decent option, otherwise I would look elsewhere.

King of the Waiver Wire Hill: 7/31

8) Oscar Taveras

Currently owned in 24% of leagues. His place among trendy player pick-ups is a byproduct of Allen Craig being part of the package the Red Sox got in return for John Lackey.

The advice showing up on him is that he's worth picking him. While I think his future is bright, i'm just not sure it's here yet. He did struggle after his initial call-up in June. While some of this is BABIP related (.235), that still brings only brings his average up to .266, with a current 4.0% walk rate that would bring his projected OBP to a paltry .306.

Beyond that, i'm not sure if he brings much power to the table (i'm thinking maybe 10 over the course of a full season) and he doesn't bring anything in regards to speed. For keeper leagues, he may be worth a look since he's still only 21 but for immediate short-term returns, not so much

7) Jedd Gyorko

Currently owned in 37% of leagues. He had himself a really good day against the Cardinals yesterday (3-5 2 R, HR, 4 RBI...thank you) bringing his batting average up to .181. Gyorko has been horribly unlucky in the BABIP department this year (.213) and this could be the start of a recovery from what has been thus far a horrible season.

My projection has his batting average at .255 and the capability to hit 20+ homers over the course of a full season.

6) Denard Span

Currently owned in 40% of leagues. Span had himself a nice day against the Marlins as he stole two bases and scored two runs in yesterday's 4-3 win. While he's never going to be a massive power force, my latest projection shows him able to score 92 runs and steal 26 bases over a full season (650 plate appearances).

5) Yangervis Solarte

Currently owned in 20% of leagues. Solarte had another big day against the Cardinals 4-5 R, 2 RBI (thank you again!!!!!) as the Padres had a nice 12-1 beat down over the Cardinals. The most recent projection has him hitting .286 with a like chance of 15-20 homers per year.

Now for a side tangent. Yesterday, Heather dressed up Zeplen in a Brewers outfit and in my hadn't had my morning cup of coffee haze made a comment on how maybe this would help the Brewers snap their three game losing streak (which they did by beating Tampa Bay 5-0). In addition, the Pirates ending up losing (contributing factor being one of the worst base-running blunders you will ever see on a major league field). To top it all off, the Padres sweetened the deal by absolutely dominating the Cardinals.

4) Allen Craig

Currently owned in 74% of leagues. Allen Craig's value is in flux right now as he is also one of the most dropped players today. Despite being one of the most added players, he has seen his ownership rate decrease by 3%.

First of all, i'm glad that Craig is now in the American League as he always seemed to feast on Brewers pitching. That being said, this was a good buy-low option for the Red Sox. His BABIP this year (.281) is well below career totals and I could see his average hit the high .270s and hit 18-20 homers.

3) J.P. Arencibia

His ownership rate is up to a whopping 4%. He ended up going 0 for 3 yesterday and the numbers contributed him to being unable to defend his title at the top of Waiver Wire hill. While his home run total (over a full season) projects to 30+ homers (32), his projected batting average has moved down to .234.

2) Lucas Duda

Currently owned in 56% of leagues. In this countdown, he seems to be in the 1990s Buffalo Bills role, finishing in second place for the second consecutive day. You can't blame this on lack of recent performance as he homered and drove in three yesterday and has five homers in his last 8 games. Today's projection has him hitting .265/26 HR/94 RBI over 650 plate appearances.

And the King of Waiver Wire Hill Today Is:

1) Matt Kemp

This is probably not fair since he is owned in 92% of leagues, but this total is still 2% higher than it was yesterday and he still has somehow been one of the most added hitters in Fantasy today.

The most likely scenario is someone having him on the bench instead of starting versus him being available in most leagues. Anyway's his bat is sort of on fire right now (three home runs over the last two games) and showing no signs of cooling down. His full-season projection is .279/22 HR/84 RBI/17 SB/82 R, a far cry from his near-MVP performance in 2011 but still not bad.

All research for this posting done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy

Third Base Rankings: 7/29

Top 20 Rankings for Third Base For 7/29/14

1-Adrian Beltre
2-Josh Donaldson
3-Anthony Rendon
4-Todd Frazier
5-Kyle Seager
6-Aramis Ramirez

7-Mike Moustakas

Currently owned in 18% of leagues. He's disappointed year after year but this year seems to be the mis-fortune of bad luck versus being disappointing. He has shown underlying signs of improvement as his walk rate has gone from 6% to 8% but his BABIP is at .189 (career total is .260). When adjusting for this his batting average is .268 (.236 for his career).

While he has gotten fortunate on the home run front as his HR/FB ratio is higher than usual, he still is a decent bet to push at least 20 home runs. The 650 plate appearance projection for him is as follows:

.268/19 HR/93 RBI/75 R/2 SB

Bottom line, is that he is a sneaky good, buy-low candidate.

Verdict: Buy, that .189 BABIP is gonna improve sooner rather than later.

8-Matt Carpenter
9-Evan Longoria
10-David Wright
11-Lonnie Chisenhall
12-Josh Harrison

*Ryan Zimmerman would be right below Harrison if he wasn't injured

13-Nolan Arenado
14-Pablo Sandoval
15-Pedro Alvarez
16-Juan Francisco
17-Casey McGehee

* Brett Lawrie would be right below McGehee if he wasn't injured

18-Martin Prado
19-Mark Reynolds
20-Chris Johnson

Some other third basemen that are available in less than 50% of leagues:

Brock Holt (48%)

Rank: 36

While Holt is still hitting above .300, his performance appears to finally be regressing towards sub-standard levels. He is 1 for his last 19 and it appears that his ownership stock has plateaued (he's seen his rate decrease by 5% since Yesterday).

I wasn't high on him when he was actually hitting well and i'm definitely not high on him as there are clues that his .373 BABIP is coming back down to earth.

Over a full season, i think he'd do the following:

.245/8 HR/44 RBI/11 SB/70 R

Maybe double-digit steals, definite single digit home runs, a sub .250 batting average. I'm assuming that the Red Sox are likely to stock their roster in the off-season and find someone better to take the at bats that Holt has gotten fortunate with this year.

Verdict: And the Regression Starts Now

Jedd Gyorko (33%)

Rank: 31

Gyorko, he has to be like the most unluckiest hitter in the universe (.196 BABIP). Over a full season (650 PA). With that being said even adjusting for this will provide for some home runs but still an overall mediocre value at third base

.251/21 HR/73 RBI/4SB/51 R

Verdict: Sell

David Freese (21%)

Rank: 23

A lot of people were hoping that a change of scenery would help David Freese have a bounce back season. After taking a look, this is about as good as it's going to get. His BABIP while high (.333) is lower than his career totals and his HR/FB ratio is slightly lower than career norms. The only thing keeping his ranking as high as it is are decent run & rbi totals from being on the Angels. His numbers projected over 650 PA are as follows:

.254/15 HR/77 RBI/2 SB/73 R

Verdict: Sell

Research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo Fantasy