Reading today's Closing Time, article on Yahoo! One of the reader comments is as follows:
"Hellickson is picking up the pace, is he a safe add for mixed leagues? "
Which raises the question of
How much stock can we take in Hellickson's recent performance?
The short answer, not very much. Granted his surface stats indicate a possible mini-breakout season (2.03 ERA) but even during these good times there are some red flags to consider before putting him in your lineup.
His FIP/xFIP numbers paint a less rosy picture as these totals are 3.88 & 4.35 respectively. Combining these numbers (putting 1/2 emphasis on FIP, 1/3 on xFIP and the rest on his current ERA) indicates that his projected ERA going forward is 3.73 which is actually slightly higher than his career total of 3.63.
While he has improved his walk rate so far (2.91 career to 2.03 this season), he still is not someone you can rely on for strikeouts (6.75 per 9 this year).
In looking at the pitch type available at FanGraphs, he hasn't really changed his repertoire much and his fastball has actually lost about 0.4 mph.
While Hellickson's return is a major source of relief to a Rays team that has managed to get themselves within six games of the final wild card spot, there isn't much to indicate that he's any better or worse than he has been previously. Out of 108 pitchers I have ranked, he comes in at 74th in the rankings, indicating that he's not the best option available on the waiver wire.
Another question in the comment threads regards value comparision between specific catchers
"So does a stake in the A’s offense include adding Vogt as a starting C
in a 12 team league? I have been flipping between Rosario (currently),
Montero, Vogt, Flowers, etc. They are all available, as well as McCann.
Who’s the preferred option ROS? "
Which raises the question of?
How do these catchers compare to each other value-wise?
My take on this is as follows:
Tyler Flowers is by far the worst option of the bunch. His already mediocre batting average is being held up by a high BABIP and I have him ranked 294th amongst batters.
Stephen Vogt is projected out to hit .280 and is capable of double figure home run power. His overall ranking is at 187 and is hurt by being in and out of the line-up (one of the factors taken into consideration is plate appearances this year).
Miguel Montero is having a nice bounce-back year and is projected to hit .275 with 20 homers over a full season, he is ranked 92nd right now, not a bad option but not as good as McCann and Rosario
Wilin Rosario is second on this list of five but not by much (literally by one spot). His numbers don't look that great on the surface but he's had lower than usual BABIP and HR/FB rate totals. I'm still high on his plus-power and think he could get his batting average which has always been his value downfall up to about .270
Brian McCann (assuming he can stay healthy) is the best option. While his surface stats seem like he's having an underwhelming start for the Yankees, he's being held back by a .249 BABIP and lower than usual HR/FB rate totals.
Bottom line, Flowers should be avoided at all costs. Vogt carries some value in daily leagues but not standard leagues and Montero, Rosario & McCann (to varying extents) are all solid options.
Showing posts with label stephen vogt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stephen vogt. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Monday, July 21, 2014
Waiver Wired: Around the Lineup 7/21
A quick look at some players that are trendy waiver wire acquisitions today and whether or not they are worth a look:
Catcher:
Stephen Vogt
Current Rank: 117
Current Score: 47.8
Vogt's strong season continues as he had 3 hits in Sunday's win over Baltimore. Vogt is currently raking at a .364 average. (fueled by a .386 BABIP). Even after regression, he's still a solid bet at batting average .283. He wasn't in this weeks rankings as he only has 126 plate appearances this year. Looking at the data, I think he would project out to the following over a full season.
.283 63R, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
This projects out to a score of 47.8 which would rank him 117. While Vogt keeping his average at .364 is extremely unlikely, even after pulling the BABIP covers, there is a player with enough value at the Catcher position to justify picking up.
Verdict: Buy
First Base:
Brock Holt
Current Rank: 209
Current Score: 38.3
Also available/eligible at third base & outfield. The majority of his value so far has been at batting average (which is being help up by a .392 BABIP). While the BABIP is making his numbers look better (like Vogt), unlike Vogt i'm not sure there is enough value when this area holds off.
Assuming his skill set includes a BABIP of around .300, his actual future average would be divided by 1.3, which gives us an average of .250 with single digit home runs and maybe double figures in steals.
Verdict: Sell
Kolten Wong
Current Rank: 59
Current Score: 55.1
While the home run power has cooled off, his bat has not as he had a very strong weekend series against the Dodgers. Even though this hot streak has moved his average up (at .251 after this weekend), this number is still artificially being held back due to a still below average BABIP.
Going forward, I think he can provide a batting average around .287, possible double digit home runs power and possibly 35-40 steals. Yet, he's only owned in 38% of leagues in Yahoo, better get him while you can.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Chris Coghlan
Current Rank: 169
Current Score: 42.1
Another player who thus far has followed up a strong end of the first-half with a solid showing in the second half of the season as he got a couple of hits in Sunday's lost to Arizona. If given the chance to play full time for a year, I could see him breaking into double digits for homers and steals but he projects closer to a .255 hitter (versus his current .278 average).
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
J.J Hardy
Current Rank: 253
Current Score: 34.2
If Baltimore is going to hold onto first place, they will need to get more power contributions from Hardy in the second half (like they got on Saturday against Oakland.
Even though his power was non-existent in the first-half, he was lucky in getting hits as his BABIP (.330) is significantly higher than his career total (.277). Even though I like Hardy as a player (I even have his bobble head doll) i'm not sold on the average staying up (i'm thinking this is closer to .236 going forward).
The question is whether he can return to the 25-30 homer/season form he has shown in the past. So far this year his HR/FB rate has been 3.6% (compared to his 10.9% career total).
While adjusting for this helps his home run projection a little bit (taking it from 13 to 19), he still ranks very lowly on the Zeplen Dean system. He could be of use if you really, really need the power but his 2014 BABIP compared to his career BABIP indicates that he could hurt owners in the batting average category.
Verdict: Sell
Outfield:
Carlos Beltran:
Current Rank: 84
Current Score: 51
Beltran's value is down due to injuries, age and a .228 BABIP which has dragged his average down to .222 and made this season's performance look worse than it actually is.
He did break into double figures for home runs the other day. Despite being a brand-name player and playing the Yankees, the issues in the aforementioned paragraph have his ownership rate at 62%. If he's still available ( and stays healthy) he could be a valuable upgrade for fantasy owners in the second half.
If his BABIP returns to normal levels for him, I could see the batting average come in at .288. Over the course of a full (healthy) season, I think he's still capable of hitting 25 homers per year.
Verdict: Buy
Austin Jackson:
Current Rank: 133
Current Score: 45.5
Jackson had a strong weekend, getting six hits in the Tigers series against the Indians. While his BABIP this year seems high (.328) this is actually well below his career total in this area (.356). Putting this into consideration, I think he is closer to a .286 hitter but with limited value in power (8 projected home runs) and modest speed (16 steals). While his performance is not off the charts bad, there's nothing to indicate that he's going to have any performance upside (like Carlos Beltran) has as we head into the second half.
Verdict: Sell
Torii Hunter:
Current Rank: 16
Current Score: 66.7
Currently owned in 69% of leagues but still the 7th most added outfielder in Yahoo today (as of 12:37 PST).
He ended up ranking much higher than I expected with the way I put the numbers together. This is probably a mixture of me needing to tweak the numbers and also BABIP fueled metrics. Coming into today, he has a .283 BABIP (.309 career) and comes in with a .275 batting average.
Factoring out for this, his batting average could come in closer to .318 while maintaining very solid pop in his bat (13 homers so far this year/23 over a full year projected by the Zeplen Dean System.
Verdict: Buy
All research for this posting done through Yahoo! Fantasy & Fangraphs.com
Catcher:
Stephen Vogt
Current Rank: 117
Current Score: 47.8
Vogt's strong season continues as he had 3 hits in Sunday's win over Baltimore. Vogt is currently raking at a .364 average. (fueled by a .386 BABIP). Even after regression, he's still a solid bet at batting average .283. He wasn't in this weeks rankings as he only has 126 plate appearances this year. Looking at the data, I think he would project out to the following over a full season.
.283 63R, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
This projects out to a score of 47.8 which would rank him 117. While Vogt keeping his average at .364 is extremely unlikely, even after pulling the BABIP covers, there is a player with enough value at the Catcher position to justify picking up.
Verdict: Buy
First Base:
Brock Holt
Current Rank: 209
Current Score: 38.3
Also available/eligible at third base & outfield. The majority of his value so far has been at batting average (which is being help up by a .392 BABIP). While the BABIP is making his numbers look better (like Vogt), unlike Vogt i'm not sure there is enough value when this area holds off.
Assuming his skill set includes a BABIP of around .300, his actual future average would be divided by 1.3, which gives us an average of .250 with single digit home runs and maybe double figures in steals.
Verdict: Sell
Kolten Wong
Current Rank: 59
Current Score: 55.1
While the home run power has cooled off, his bat has not as he had a very strong weekend series against the Dodgers. Even though this hot streak has moved his average up (at .251 after this weekend), this number is still artificially being held back due to a still below average BABIP.
Going forward, I think he can provide a batting average around .287, possible double digit home runs power and possibly 35-40 steals. Yet, he's only owned in 38% of leagues in Yahoo, better get him while you can.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Chris Coghlan
Current Rank: 169
Current Score: 42.1
Another player who thus far has followed up a strong end of the first-half with a solid showing in the second half of the season as he got a couple of hits in Sunday's lost to Arizona. If given the chance to play full time for a year, I could see him breaking into double digits for homers and steals but he projects closer to a .255 hitter (versus his current .278 average).
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
J.J Hardy
Current Rank: 253
Current Score: 34.2
If Baltimore is going to hold onto first place, they will need to get more power contributions from Hardy in the second half (like they got on Saturday against Oakland.
Even though his power was non-existent in the first-half, he was lucky in getting hits as his BABIP (.330) is significantly higher than his career total (.277). Even though I like Hardy as a player (I even have his bobble head doll) i'm not sold on the average staying up (i'm thinking this is closer to .236 going forward).
The question is whether he can return to the 25-30 homer/season form he has shown in the past. So far this year his HR/FB rate has been 3.6% (compared to his 10.9% career total).
While adjusting for this helps his home run projection a little bit (taking it from 13 to 19), he still ranks very lowly on the Zeplen Dean system. He could be of use if you really, really need the power but his 2014 BABIP compared to his career BABIP indicates that he could hurt owners in the batting average category.
Verdict: Sell
Outfield:
Carlos Beltran:
Current Rank: 84
Current Score: 51
Beltran's value is down due to injuries, age and a .228 BABIP which has dragged his average down to .222 and made this season's performance look worse than it actually is.
He did break into double figures for home runs the other day. Despite being a brand-name player and playing the Yankees, the issues in the aforementioned paragraph have his ownership rate at 62%. If he's still available ( and stays healthy) he could be a valuable upgrade for fantasy owners in the second half.
If his BABIP returns to normal levels for him, I could see the batting average come in at .288. Over the course of a full (healthy) season, I think he's still capable of hitting 25 homers per year.
Verdict: Buy
Austin Jackson:
Current Rank: 133
Current Score: 45.5
Jackson had a strong weekend, getting six hits in the Tigers series against the Indians. While his BABIP this year seems high (.328) this is actually well below his career total in this area (.356). Putting this into consideration, I think he is closer to a .286 hitter but with limited value in power (8 projected home runs) and modest speed (16 steals). While his performance is not off the charts bad, there's nothing to indicate that he's going to have any performance upside (like Carlos Beltran) has as we head into the second half.
Verdict: Sell
Torii Hunter:
Current Rank: 16
Current Score: 66.7
Currently owned in 69% of leagues but still the 7th most added outfielder in Yahoo today (as of 12:37 PST).
He ended up ranking much higher than I expected with the way I put the numbers together. This is probably a mixture of me needing to tweak the numbers and also BABIP fueled metrics. Coming into today, he has a .283 BABIP (.309 career) and comes in with a .275 batting average.
Factoring out for this, his batting average could come in closer to .318 while maintaining very solid pop in his bat (13 homers so far this year/23 over a full year projected by the Zeplen Dean System.
Verdict: Buy
All research for this posting done through Yahoo! Fantasy & Fangraphs.com
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Musings, Ramblings & Other Stuff: Stephen Vogt
Stephen Vogt:
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
Despite going 0 for 4 on Sunday, he has been red hot getting hits in 11 consecutive games which has helped raise his batting average to .358 and has also allowed for him to get consistent playing time.
What's His Zeplen Dean Score:
48.08 which places him right behind Salvador Perez and ahead of Pedro Alvarez.
What to Expect Going Forward:
Well for starters, he's not going to hit .358 all year as this total has been aided by an unsustainable .376 BABIP. While his projected full-season numbers (650 plate appearances) aren't off the charts good, his eligibility at Catcher does give him added value. His 650 PA projection is as follows.
.280/.335/.503 63 R 20 HR 88 RBI 6 SB
In 2011-2013, including the minors he had 489 plate appearances. If we adjust the numbers based on this, Vogt could have a line looking like this:
.280/15 HR/67 RBI/5 SB
While his career walk rate is at 5.5%, this along with his OBP could be going up as we go forward. In looking at the plate discipline data available in Fangraphs, this data indicates that there have been decreases in how often he swings at pitches (both outside the strike zone and overall). While Vogt is eligible at three positions (Catcher, First Base & Outfield) the bulk of his value is going to be in his Catcher eligibility where he appears to be able to an acceptable amount of power and a decent batting average (even after his BABIP brings his batting average back to normal).
Since the Athletics are known to platoon and move players in and out of the lineup (that seems to push the right buttons more often than not), if you pick up Vogt one thing to keep a close eye on are if they are moving him out of the lineup for any given day.
All numbers, information used found on fangraphs.com
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
Despite going 0 for 4 on Sunday, he has been red hot getting hits in 11 consecutive games which has helped raise his batting average to .358 and has also allowed for him to get consistent playing time.
What's His Zeplen Dean Score:
48.08 which places him right behind Salvador Perez and ahead of Pedro Alvarez.
What to Expect Going Forward:
Well for starters, he's not going to hit .358 all year as this total has been aided by an unsustainable .376 BABIP. While his projected full-season numbers (650 plate appearances) aren't off the charts good, his eligibility at Catcher does give him added value. His 650 PA projection is as follows.
.280/.335/.503 63 R 20 HR 88 RBI 6 SB
In 2011-2013, including the minors he had 489 plate appearances. If we adjust the numbers based on this, Vogt could have a line looking like this:
.280/15 HR/67 RBI/5 SB
While his career walk rate is at 5.5%, this along with his OBP could be going up as we go forward. In looking at the plate discipline data available in Fangraphs, this data indicates that there have been decreases in how often he swings at pitches (both outside the strike zone and overall). While Vogt is eligible at three positions (Catcher, First Base & Outfield) the bulk of his value is going to be in his Catcher eligibility where he appears to be able to an acceptable amount of power and a decent batting average (even after his BABIP brings his batting average back to normal).
Since the Athletics are known to platoon and move players in and out of the lineup (that seems to push the right buttons more often than not), if you pick up Vogt one thing to keep a close eye on are if they are moving him out of the lineup for any given day.
All numbers, information used found on fangraphs.com
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