Charlie Morton:
Why he's a trendy Fantasy Baseball Pick Right Now:
He's pitched well over the last month, (two earned runs or less allowed in his last five starts) and has a nice 3.09 ERA. It also doesn't hurt that his next start is tomorrow against a pretty weak Cubs team.
What to Expect Going Forward:
Some regression but not a complete drop off in performance. He has been slightly lucky on opposing BABIP (.281 versus .313 career) and he's getting lucky on the fly balls turning into homers (7% this year versus 9.9%) career. Still, even with regression factored in, he still looks to be a decent mid to back rotation pitcher on a contending team (or as it turns out the best pitcher on a Pirates team with what has been a struggling starting rotation thus far). His FIP/xFIP indicate that his ERA are likely to be near the 3.75-4 range going forward. I think he'll continue this good stretch against the Cubs but he's going to have some struggles sooner rather than later.
There doesn't seem to be any major changes to how opposing hitters are hitting him as his line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are all within career ranges. The only real change to his approach is that he's throwing slightly more curveballs than he has in his career (which could possibly help in keeping the regression to a minimum) even then it's not a career high. One interesting thing to note is that he is on track to lead the NL in hit batsmen for the second consecutive year. Point being, he doesn't appear to be any better or worse than he has been the last few years.
While Morton has pitched relatively well (and will likely continue to at least be productive if not a star), the Pirates have under-achieved based on the high expectations set on them after making the playoffs last year. In looking at the team stats on baseball-reference it is easy to see why as he is the only starting pitcher on the Pirates with an ERA+ above 100 (115).
If the Pirates want to make some noise in either the NL Central or Wild Card race they will need Morton's nice stretch to continue for an extended amount of time and hope that Cole (one of my least favorite players after his Carlos Gomez incident) and Liriano are productive once they are activated from the disabled list and maybe go back in time and call up Gregory Polanco in April (or not since I enjoyed the Brewers dominating the Pirates for much of the early season).
One interesting thing to note is that out of players drafted in the third round in the 2002 draft, Morton has the lowest career WAR primarily due to a couple of terrible seasons in 2008 & 2010. While his career WAR is sub-replacement level, he can reverse this with another year or two of solid if not unspectacular pitching.
One thing that is probably out of reach is being the best player drafted in the third round of the 2002 draft (an honor that Curtis Granderson holds and has no threat to have relinquished).
All numbers, data, etc referenced found on fangraphs.com and/or baseball-reference.com
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Musings Ramblings and other stuff: Brock Holt
Brock Holt:
What he's done to get picked up in fantasy leagues:
He's got himself a shiny batting average of .338, some stolen bases and position eligibility at first base which is chronically starved for base stealers. He does have six multi-hit games since the 8th of June.
Is this going to come close to holding up in the long term:
In a word, no well unless you think a .410 BABIP is going to hold up in the long term.. Once that goes, the batting average starts to fade, yeah there will be some stolen bases but unlike most players with 1B, 3B or OF eligibility, there isn't much power for him to fall back on in this scenario and it appears there isn't much defensive strength to fall back on.
Best case scenario is he keeps his batting average in the .260-.280 range, manages to steal 15-20 bases and pops maybe a handful of home runs. Good enough to stay in the majors for awhile? Sure Good enough to regularly hold a starting job once the Red Sox have a season where they are major contenders? Probably not.
Has he turned a small corner without it being blatantly obvious? Possible but not likely. Compared to 2012/2013 he has hit slightly more line drives and most importantly has continued to decrease the ground balls being hit. My instinct thinks that a best case scenario may be him turning out to be a James Loney caliber player most likely scenario is that he becomes a journeyman utility infielder.
When he got traded along with Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox, it was likely more as a throw in but even the modest sample size of success he has had over the last month has been more than what they got out of Hanrahan (thought the Red Sox are still on the short side of this trade).
He may not become a star but for being a 9th round pick in the 2009 MLB draft, he's still turned out pretty good as he is one of six players from that round year in the MLB and amongst those only Aaron Loup and Chase Anderson have a higher WAR.
All numbers, etc referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com
What he's done to get picked up in fantasy leagues:
He's got himself a shiny batting average of .338, some stolen bases and position eligibility at first base which is chronically starved for base stealers. He does have six multi-hit games since the 8th of June.
Is this going to come close to holding up in the long term:
In a word, no well unless you think a .410 BABIP is going to hold up in the long term.. Once that goes, the batting average starts to fade, yeah there will be some stolen bases but unlike most players with 1B, 3B or OF eligibility, there isn't much power for him to fall back on in this scenario and it appears there isn't much defensive strength to fall back on.
Best case scenario is he keeps his batting average in the .260-.280 range, manages to steal 15-20 bases and pops maybe a handful of home runs. Good enough to stay in the majors for awhile? Sure Good enough to regularly hold a starting job once the Red Sox have a season where they are major contenders? Probably not.
Has he turned a small corner without it being blatantly obvious? Possible but not likely. Compared to 2012/2013 he has hit slightly more line drives and most importantly has continued to decrease the ground balls being hit. My instinct thinks that a best case scenario may be him turning out to be a James Loney caliber player most likely scenario is that he becomes a journeyman utility infielder.
When he got traded along with Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox, it was likely more as a throw in but even the modest sample size of success he has had over the last month has been more than what they got out of Hanrahan (thought the Red Sox are still on the short side of this trade).
He may not become a star but for being a 9th round pick in the 2009 MLB draft, he's still turned out pretty good as he is one of six players from that round year in the MLB and amongst those only Aaron Loup and Chase Anderson have a higher WAR.
All numbers, etc referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com
Musings, Ramblings and Other Stuff: Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta:
Why he's getting picked up in Fantasy:
Eight starts into the season and he's given up less than three runs in six of them. It also helps that he's racking up decent strikeout totals and a 2.09 ERA never hurts either.
What to expect going forward:
Coming into this year, Arrieta had the appearance of just another back-end starting pitcher. I was able to jump on top of things and pick him up last night (thus benefiting from a very strong performance yesterday, 1 win, 11 K's...oh yeah).
There is some evidence that he has turned the corner as he is inducing more ground balls and even his FIP & xFIP are both below 3. Even better, there is some evidence that this improvement is not a pure byproduct of good luck as his BABIP is .325 indicating his numbers could have even been better coming into today with better luck.
An ERA around 2 and 11 K's per start is probably too much to expect going forward but his luck in HR/FB% may catch up to him sooner rather than later. I think he'll be a good source of strikeouts but the ERA will likely settle in the 3-3.25 range.
The one change this year (versus past seasons is that he is getting a higher amount of ground balls 52% this year versus 44% career though the corresponding decrease has come in fly balls but not line drives which would have been even more helpful going forward.
It appears he's also adjusted how he's approaching opposing hitters as he's decreased emphasis on his fastball while increasing the amount of cutters, curveballs & changeups that he's throwing.
While his numbers prior to this year indicate he is having a substantial fluke season, I think there is enough in the numbers to indicate that he has turned the corner and is in the middle of a quietly good season.
Seeing that he is one of the few bright spots on what has been another tough season for the Cubs, maybe he doesn't stay with the Cubs and they decide to flip him to a contending team for prospects.
One of the interesting things to note is that if this is indeed his breakout occurring, he would be bucking some historical trends as his most similar pitchers through age 27 listed on baseball-reference are littered with non-household names such as Micah Owings and Blake Stein.
Still, for being drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, Arrieta has done okay for himself as he's tied for third in career WAR amongst players drafted in the fifth round of that years draft (Marlins pitcher Steve Chisek) leading the pack in this area and if he continues the momentum he has had from the first couple of month's this season, he should continue to go up this list.
All numbers, etc, found on either fangraphs.com & baseball-reference.com.
Why he's getting picked up in Fantasy:
Eight starts into the season and he's given up less than three runs in six of them. It also helps that he's racking up decent strikeout totals and a 2.09 ERA never hurts either.
What to expect going forward:
Coming into this year, Arrieta had the appearance of just another back-end starting pitcher. I was able to jump on top of things and pick him up last night (thus benefiting from a very strong performance yesterday, 1 win, 11 K's...oh yeah).
There is some evidence that he has turned the corner as he is inducing more ground balls and even his FIP & xFIP are both below 3. Even better, there is some evidence that this improvement is not a pure byproduct of good luck as his BABIP is .325 indicating his numbers could have even been better coming into today with better luck.
An ERA around 2 and 11 K's per start is probably too much to expect going forward but his luck in HR/FB% may catch up to him sooner rather than later. I think he'll be a good source of strikeouts but the ERA will likely settle in the 3-3.25 range.
The one change this year (versus past seasons is that he is getting a higher amount of ground balls 52% this year versus 44% career though the corresponding decrease has come in fly balls but not line drives which would have been even more helpful going forward.
It appears he's also adjusted how he's approaching opposing hitters as he's decreased emphasis on his fastball while increasing the amount of cutters, curveballs & changeups that he's throwing.
While his numbers prior to this year indicate he is having a substantial fluke season, I think there is enough in the numbers to indicate that he has turned the corner and is in the middle of a quietly good season.
Seeing that he is one of the few bright spots on what has been another tough season for the Cubs, maybe he doesn't stay with the Cubs and they decide to flip him to a contending team for prospects.
One of the interesting things to note is that if this is indeed his breakout occurring, he would be bucking some historical trends as his most similar pitchers through age 27 listed on baseball-reference are littered with non-household names such as Micah Owings and Blake Stein.
Still, for being drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, Arrieta has done okay for himself as he's tied for third in career WAR amongst players drafted in the fifth round of that years draft (Marlins pitcher Steve Chisek) leading the pack in this area and if he continues the momentum he has had from the first couple of month's this season, he should continue to go up this list.
All numbers, etc, found on either fangraphs.com & baseball-reference.com.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Musings Ramblings and Other Stuff: Brandon Workman
Brandon Workman:
Why he's piquing the interest of fantasy owners:
He's given up three earned runs or less in each start since moving from the bullpen to the starting rotation. For being owned in only 4% of Yahoo leagues, his ERA & WHIP totals (2.86/0.99) are pretty enticing for people looking for an under the radar waiver wire bargain.
How I think he's going to do going forward:
While he has induced slightly more ground balls than last year (38% to 41%), I think his overall numbers will show modest improvement this year, I think the ERA ends up in the 3.75-4.00 range.
Like many unexpected players starting strong, he has been aided by some good luck (.215 BABIP and a 3.6% HR to FB ratio). He may keep this good stretch going for awhile but eventually hits are going to start falling and he's going to give up more home runs.
Whatever the results are, the fangraphs data indicates that he is at least making adjustments (which may help him do better than I expected). He has gone from using his fastball 61% of the time to 48% and increased the use of his cutter from 18% to 31% a pitch that seems to get him more effective results based on the available data.
Taking this under consideration is making me reconsider by initial prediction. I still think some regression is inevitable but he might be able to keep the ERA around the 3.50 range. If your playing fantasy, he may be useful if you have an extra bench spot available and would go on a start by start basis when determining whether or not to start him.
Also, if you are going to pick up/start Workman you may also need to keep an eye on whether he's playing at home or on the road as Fenway has been more favorable to offense this year (107 park factor) than usual.
Workman did get himself to the majors in decent time, as he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft. By career WAR, he is so far the fifth best player drafted in the second round of that year's draft with the best showing thus far coming from Andrelton Simmons.
The Red Sox themselves, while World Champions last year have not had the best of years so far as they are 31-36 and languishing in fourth place although the two ex-Brewers on the team (Burke Badenhop & Chris Capuano) are having solid seasons out of the bullpen.
All data numbers, etc. found on either baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com
Why he's piquing the interest of fantasy owners:
He's given up three earned runs or less in each start since moving from the bullpen to the starting rotation. For being owned in only 4% of Yahoo leagues, his ERA & WHIP totals (2.86/0.99) are pretty enticing for people looking for an under the radar waiver wire bargain.
How I think he's going to do going forward:
While he has induced slightly more ground balls than last year (38% to 41%), I think his overall numbers will show modest improvement this year, I think the ERA ends up in the 3.75-4.00 range.
Like many unexpected players starting strong, he has been aided by some good luck (.215 BABIP and a 3.6% HR to FB ratio). He may keep this good stretch going for awhile but eventually hits are going to start falling and he's going to give up more home runs.
Whatever the results are, the fangraphs data indicates that he is at least making adjustments (which may help him do better than I expected). He has gone from using his fastball 61% of the time to 48% and increased the use of his cutter from 18% to 31% a pitch that seems to get him more effective results based on the available data.
Taking this under consideration is making me reconsider by initial prediction. I still think some regression is inevitable but he might be able to keep the ERA around the 3.50 range. If your playing fantasy, he may be useful if you have an extra bench spot available and would go on a start by start basis when determining whether or not to start him.
Also, if you are going to pick up/start Workman you may also need to keep an eye on whether he's playing at home or on the road as Fenway has been more favorable to offense this year (107 park factor) than usual.
Workman did get himself to the majors in decent time, as he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft. By career WAR, he is so far the fifth best player drafted in the second round of that year's draft with the best showing thus far coming from Andrelton Simmons.
The Red Sox themselves, while World Champions last year have not had the best of years so far as they are 31-36 and languishing in fourth place although the two ex-Brewers on the team (Burke Badenhop & Chris Capuano) are having solid seasons out of the bullpen.
All data numbers, etc. found on either baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Musings, Ramblings and other stuff: Danny Santana
Danny Santana:
Why he's getting picked up by fantasy players:
He's in the middle of a 8-game hitting streak which has included a couple of homers and a 5-RBI game, also having a .372 average and eligibility in a few places (Second Base, Shortstop & Outfield doesn't hurt either.
Where he's been, what to expect going forward:
This is his first taste of major league action and the battle of the unknown is currently going in his favor. He's definitely more lucky than good. While he had higher BABIPs in the minor leagues, there is no way his .372 average/.476 BABIP holds up over the whole season and his minor league numbers indicate to not look to much into the home run department as he never had more than 8 in a season and in the minors, he never had a wRC+ above 113 although he could be good for double figures in stolen bases.
Basically, once pitchers get tape on him to figure him out and figure out that they don't necessarily have to throw him strikes 5.4% walk rate is roughly in line with what he did in the minors, he's likely to be another middle infielder in the crowd. If your thinking about picking him up in fantasy, he may give you a few stolen bases but don't expect too much power or batting average.
Other Things About The Twins that (at least) I find Interesting:
The Twins, while they haven't been great have been better than expected at 31-33 which has them 3 1/5 games behind in the AL Central. They have been somewhat lucky as their expected record (per baseball-reference is 30-34).
The Twins AAA team (Rochester) is doing better at 37-28. The hitter with the most plate appearances is Eric Farris who I sort of remember as he had a couple cups of coffee with the Brewers and spent a few years playing in Nashville and at 806 minor league games and 10 plate appearances appears to be a career minor-leaguer. I also noticed he isn't the only Brewers alumni playing in Rochester (Brad Nelson being the other). Nelson appears to be the consummate definition of the AAAA player as he has 200+ minor league home runs and as the majors are concerned a bust as a prospect (he was a top 50 prospect in 2003 & 2004).
One other thing about the Twins that I at least somewhat pay attention to is the fact that they have two former Cal Poly players on their roster (Kevin Correia & Casey Fien). It always trips my mind that there are some players that are in the big leagues that used to live in one of the same towns that I used to live in.
Why he's getting picked up by fantasy players:
He's in the middle of a 8-game hitting streak which has included a couple of homers and a 5-RBI game, also having a .372 average and eligibility in a few places (Second Base, Shortstop & Outfield doesn't hurt either.
Where he's been, what to expect going forward:
This is his first taste of major league action and the battle of the unknown is currently going in his favor. He's definitely more lucky than good. While he had higher BABIPs in the minor leagues, there is no way his .372 average/.476 BABIP holds up over the whole season and his minor league numbers indicate to not look to much into the home run department as he never had more than 8 in a season and in the minors, he never had a wRC+ above 113 although he could be good for double figures in stolen bases.
Basically, once pitchers get tape on him to figure him out and figure out that they don't necessarily have to throw him strikes 5.4% walk rate is roughly in line with what he did in the minors, he's likely to be another middle infielder in the crowd. If your thinking about picking him up in fantasy, he may give you a few stolen bases but don't expect too much power or batting average.
Other Things About The Twins that (at least) I find Interesting:
The Twins, while they haven't been great have been better than expected at 31-33 which has them 3 1/5 games behind in the AL Central. They have been somewhat lucky as their expected record (per baseball-reference is 30-34).
The Twins AAA team (Rochester) is doing better at 37-28. The hitter with the most plate appearances is Eric Farris who I sort of remember as he had a couple cups of coffee with the Brewers and spent a few years playing in Nashville and at 806 minor league games and 10 plate appearances appears to be a career minor-leaguer. I also noticed he isn't the only Brewers alumni playing in Rochester (Brad Nelson being the other). Nelson appears to be the consummate definition of the AAAA player as he has 200+ minor league home runs and as the majors are concerned a bust as a prospect (he was a top 50 prospect in 2003 & 2004).
One other thing about the Twins that I at least somewhat pay attention to is the fact that they have two former Cal Poly players on their roster (Kevin Correia & Casey Fien). It always trips my mind that there are some players that are in the big leagues that used to live in one of the same towns that I used to live in.
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Waiver Wire Cage Match: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Justin Turner
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Matsuzaka has been getting picked up in a lot of fantasy leagues as the Mets are giving him a start tomorrow against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. On the bright side, he is getting at least one opportunity to succeed as he gets to face a weak Cubs line up.
However, it would be extremely shocking if he managed to maintain his strong performance (2.45 ERA) over the entire season. He simply is pitching a bit over his head. He isn't exactly keeping batters off the base paths (6.14 BB/9) and has been the beneficiary of good luck (.186 BABIP/3.6% HR to Fly Ball Ratio--compared to 8.5% for his career). If not when this number regressions, he's likely to see his numbers go up by a lot.
More likely than not, his numbers are going to regress to something very mediocre. In looking at the data on Fangraphs, one thing he appears to be doing this year is throwing less Fastballs (42% in 2014/52% career) and throwing more cutters (28% in 2014/16% career). In looking at the pitch values data, it appears that in his career and in 2014, Matsuzaka's cutter has been more effective than his fastball.
While the argument for Matsuzaka mysteriously reviving his career is extremely weak, it is slightly stronger than expected. If you want to pick him up for a spot start against the Cubs, that's one thing since the Cubs are sort of terrible but relying on him to improve by throwing even more cutters and assuming the league wouldn't adjust appears to be a dangerous assumption.
Justin Turner:
The how to guide on being a trendy fantasy baseball add despite a career wRC+ of 94. It appears to consist of an opportunity to fill in on for an injured player on a major market team (Dodgers), drive in runs in three consecutive games (and throw in a stolen base in the process) and be eligible at all four infield positions.
So the question is has this player who has primarily been a utility player finally turned the corner during his age 29 season. While he has a little bit more pop in his bat (.144 ISO 2014/.106 ISO career), he has been striking out more often this year (20.5% 2014--14.1% career) without a corresponding improvement in walk rate which is bound to catch up to him sooner rather than later. Another red flag is that his homer/fly ball ratio (10.7%) is significantly higher than his 4.7% career total. Basically, even the modest power numbers he's put up this year (three homers) is him playing over his head.
Verdict:
If you are picking up either of these players in fantasy, you most likely are not doing yourself any favors. Maybe (but don't count on) Matsuzaka sustaining some level of success by relying more on his cutter. With Turner, I just don't see any way that he sustains this year's performance (which isn't that strong to begin. with). Still, somebody has to win.
Winner:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Matsuzaka has been getting picked up in a lot of fantasy leagues as the Mets are giving him a start tomorrow against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. On the bright side, he is getting at least one opportunity to succeed as he gets to face a weak Cubs line up.
However, it would be extremely shocking if he managed to maintain his strong performance (2.45 ERA) over the entire season. He simply is pitching a bit over his head. He isn't exactly keeping batters off the base paths (6.14 BB/9) and has been the beneficiary of good luck (.186 BABIP/3.6% HR to Fly Ball Ratio--compared to 8.5% for his career). If not when this number regressions, he's likely to see his numbers go up by a lot.
More likely than not, his numbers are going to regress to something very mediocre. In looking at the data on Fangraphs, one thing he appears to be doing this year is throwing less Fastballs (42% in 2014/52% career) and throwing more cutters (28% in 2014/16% career). In looking at the pitch values data, it appears that in his career and in 2014, Matsuzaka's cutter has been more effective than his fastball.
While the argument for Matsuzaka mysteriously reviving his career is extremely weak, it is slightly stronger than expected. If you want to pick him up for a spot start against the Cubs, that's one thing since the Cubs are sort of terrible but relying on him to improve by throwing even more cutters and assuming the league wouldn't adjust appears to be a dangerous assumption.
Justin Turner:
The how to guide on being a trendy fantasy baseball add despite a career wRC+ of 94. It appears to consist of an opportunity to fill in on for an injured player on a major market team (Dodgers), drive in runs in three consecutive games (and throw in a stolen base in the process) and be eligible at all four infield positions.
So the question is has this player who has primarily been a utility player finally turned the corner during his age 29 season. While he has a little bit more pop in his bat (.144 ISO 2014/.106 ISO career), he has been striking out more often this year (20.5% 2014--14.1% career) without a corresponding improvement in walk rate which is bound to catch up to him sooner rather than later. Another red flag is that his homer/fly ball ratio (10.7%) is significantly higher than his 4.7% career total. Basically, even the modest power numbers he's put up this year (three homers) is him playing over his head.
Verdict:
If you are picking up either of these players in fantasy, you most likely are not doing yourself any favors. Maybe (but don't count on) Matsuzaka sustaining some level of success by relying more on his cutter. With Turner, I just don't see any way that he sustains this year's performance (which isn't that strong to begin. with). Still, somebody has to win.
Winner:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
Waiver Wire Cage Match: Jonathan Singleton vs. Cody Allen
Jonathan Singleton
Just got himself signed on to a 5 year/10 million dollar extension which included being called up to the major leagues. Fantasy players have already struck gold with Astros prospects being called up (George Springer), can the Astros repeat this again and march towards being bad instead of terrible?
There has been an ever increasing amount of buzz surrounding Singleton as he has been a top 100 prospect over the last four years. He has produced very well in Oklahoma City with a .941 OPS and a 141 wRC+.
While I don't think he's going to offer much in the batting average category, he has shown signs of developing this year as he's cut down on his strikeout rate, is hitting for increasing power and continues to draw a lot of walks. He did struggle in his first year in AAA before breaking out this year.
I think he'll have a similar learning curve in 2014 but I think he'll break out in either 2015 or 2016. Even with some possible early struggles, a selective eye at the plate (he walked in 17.6% of his plate appearances in AAA) should at least give him a decent OBP even if he struggles in other aspects offensively.
Cody Allen:
Has been the recent beneficiary of the tumultuous closer situation in Cleveland as it appears to be his turn to see if he can close the door on Cleveland's opponents.
The positive with Allen is he at least is going to give you strikeouts (10.55 per 9 in his career). He is giving up an increased amount of walks (4.07 per 9) but one thing that feels on shaky ground is that his ERA (2.96) is a decent size better than has FIP & xFIP. The main concern with him is that his WHIP (1.32 career) is higher than what you'd want out of the closer position but he has pitched well enough in his career so far that he may have a decent year or two as a closer in him.
Verdict:
This one depends on whether your needs are immediate or if you are in a format that serves long-term potential better. Allen has pitched well enough in his career to indicate that he'll at least rack up some saves and strikeouts this year. Singleton on the other hand is getting his first crack at major league pitching. While I think he will be a good player one day, he may experience another learning curve similar to what he had in AAA where he struggles for a year or two before unleashing his potential. I'm going to lean on what to expect in 2014, and give the nod to Allen.
Winner: Cody Allen
All data referenced found either on baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com
Just got himself signed on to a 5 year/10 million dollar extension which included being called up to the major leagues. Fantasy players have already struck gold with Astros prospects being called up (George Springer), can the Astros repeat this again and march towards being bad instead of terrible?
There has been an ever increasing amount of buzz surrounding Singleton as he has been a top 100 prospect over the last four years. He has produced very well in Oklahoma City with a .941 OPS and a 141 wRC+.
While I don't think he's going to offer much in the batting average category, he has shown signs of developing this year as he's cut down on his strikeout rate, is hitting for increasing power and continues to draw a lot of walks. He did struggle in his first year in AAA before breaking out this year.
I think he'll have a similar learning curve in 2014 but I think he'll break out in either 2015 or 2016. Even with some possible early struggles, a selective eye at the plate (he walked in 17.6% of his plate appearances in AAA) should at least give him a decent OBP even if he struggles in other aspects offensively.
Cody Allen:
Has been the recent beneficiary of the tumultuous closer situation in Cleveland as it appears to be his turn to see if he can close the door on Cleveland's opponents.
The positive with Allen is he at least is going to give you strikeouts (10.55 per 9 in his career). He is giving up an increased amount of walks (4.07 per 9) but one thing that feels on shaky ground is that his ERA (2.96) is a decent size better than has FIP & xFIP. The main concern with him is that his WHIP (1.32 career) is higher than what you'd want out of the closer position but he has pitched well enough in his career so far that he may have a decent year or two as a closer in him.
Verdict:
This one depends on whether your needs are immediate or if you are in a format that serves long-term potential better. Allen has pitched well enough in his career to indicate that he'll at least rack up some saves and strikeouts this year. Singleton on the other hand is getting his first crack at major league pitching. While I think he will be a good player one day, he may experience another learning curve similar to what he had in AAA where he struggles for a year or two before unleashing his potential. I'm going to lean on what to expect in 2014, and give the nod to Allen.
Winner: Cody Allen
All data referenced found either on baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)