One of the websites that I frequent is whatifsports.com. One of the many aspects of this website is the ability to simulate match ups between historical teams (i.e. what if the 27 Yankees played the 86 Mets) and see who would win. They've even done matchups where they mock what a football playoff in the 2014 format would look like. In this scenario, the match ups are simulated 10,000+ times which tends to make these match ups have very few upsets.
I was curious on how the final mock 32 would look if the games were played so I simulated the matchups on whatifsports.com. I kept the settings basic (i.e. all games played at home field of best seeded team and weather settings were set at default 70 degrees and no wind). When I did this, heres how it played out.
Round of 32:
Florida State 61 Bowling Green 10
Arizona State 29 UCLA 17
South Carolina 25 Notre Dame 9
Missouri 27 Northern Illinois 24
Michigan State 37 Vanderbilt 3
Oklahoma State 44 Texas A & M 25
Miami(FL) 28 Stanford 21
Fresno State 49 Clemson 45
Alabama 41 Texas 25
LSU 37 Wisconsin 17
Baylor 54 Iowa 10
Duke 42 Oklahoma 28
Cincinnati 27 Auburn 9
UCF 47 Louisville 17
Ohio State 39 USC 30
Georgia 45 Oregon 31
Main takeaways from the first round is that Florida State & Baylor asserted themselves as the dominants teams, the Hurricanes proved they could upset a quality opponent. Also, there were some shocking upsets including Auburn being dominated by Cincinnati. In addition, Clemson had one of their finest Clemsoning hours giving up two tds in the final 3:31 to Fresno State. Other teams that pulled off upsets included Duke & Georgia
Sweet 16:
Florida State 40 Arizona State 38
South Carolina 27 Missouri 10
Oklahoma State 30 Michigan State 23
Fresno State 31 Miami (FL) 17
Alabama 45 LSU 31
Baylor 51 Duke 13
Cincinnati 34 UCF 17
Georgia 48 Ohio State 34
Baylor continued their scoreboard lighting ways by putting 51 up on Duke. Florida State showed some vulnerability by nearly being upset by Arizona State. Arizona State took the lead on a 3 yd td run w/2:24 left before Florida State came back with a game winning field goal with 44 seconds left. Ohio State showed their vulnerability as an untested team as they exited via a loss to Georgia
Elite 8:
South Carolina 36 Florida State 33 (3 OT)
Fresno State 24 Oklahoma State 23
Alabama 40 Baylor 25
Georgia 41 Cincinnati 21
We had ourselves a couple of instant classics here. Florida State scored 10 points in the final five minutes of regulation to force overtime but South Carolina ultimately won on a 12 yard touchdown. Fresno State won their game on a touchdown scored with 19 seconds left. Just like in real life, the SEC is showing a strong presence with 3 teams in the final four.
Final 4:
Fresno State 34 South Carolina 29
Alabama 34 Georgia 20
Another Fresno State instant classic. South Carolina went up with a field goal with 12 seconds left only for Derek Carr to win the game for Fresno State on a hail mary. Meanwhile, Alabama took care of business against Georgia.
Final:
Alabama 42 Fresno State 37
Derek Carr & Fresno State's Cinderella run ends here. Alabama quietly took care of business with games (except for the final) never close enough to be an instant classic but never gaudy enough to give false hope, they just knew how to win. Since whatifsports has this data available for the past few years worth of teams and it being between football and baseball season, there is a possibility I may recreate mock 32's for past years if the mood strikes me.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 30, 2013
Power Football, Zeplens Magic Outfit & How the Packers Snuck into the Playoffs
Well, that was an interesting game. Like last week, Me and Heather had to venture out of the house to watch the Packers play (the local FOX affiliate was showing the 49ers-Cardinals game). After dropping Zeplen off at my parent's place (dressed in his lucky Packers outfit), we ventured over to Rooster Creek.
After some initial issues of waiting for seating, Heather's favorite chicken sandwich not being on the menu and being switched to a seat where we could safely watch the game without risking some neck injuries (which coincided with Rodgers interception in the end zone) it was time to take in some football.
At times when i've watched a Packers game in public, i'm aware that not everyone is from Wisconsin and not everyone is going to be rooting for the Packers. Usually the tension of this is at a minimum. For example, during last year's playoff drubbing to the 49ers I was wearing a cheesehead in a sea of 49ers fans at SLO Brew but things were pretty mellow and less tense there.
On this day, there happened to be way too many Bears fans in there at the same time that were cheering fairly loudly whenever the Bears scored and occasionally sending a few glances our direction. For the first three quarters the momentum was swinging wildly in both directions.
For most of the game, the seat I was sitting in had direct view of a couple tables full of Bears fans. After they went up 28-20, things didn't look good and to reduce my frustration of having direct eye view of happy Bears fans, I switched to the other side of the table we were sitting on (based on the rest of the game, I should have done this earlier).
Shortly after this happened, the Packers moved their way down the field, eventually scoring on an Eddie Lacy touchdown to bring the score to 28-27. For a few seconds, I forgot that I was in public and blurted out the words POWER FOOTBALL loud enough for everyone to hear.
At the time, it was uncertain whether the 805 I was drinking was drinking to celebrate or drinking to drown the sorrows. Earlier in the game, I thought that if the game was decided by a touchdown or less that the game would be dubbed the Touchdown Double Check game due to the Rodgers fumble that led to a Packers touchdown in the second quarter for Boykin on a play that everyone else thought seemed to be an incomplete pass (even I thought this, I saw the play go down continued eating my pulled pork sandwich took a sip out of my beer turned around and a touchdown popped up from seemingly nowhere.
Then the final drive of the game began. The Packers started out deep in their own territory and flirted with the start of a dark, cold winter on several occasions. They got off to a nice 2 for 2 start on forth down conversions (one on a power football run by John Kuhn the other on a nice catch by Jordy Nelson) but there was still work to be done to avoid a dark & cold winter.
On 4th and 8 Aaron Rodgers narrowly avoided a season ending sack by Julius Peppers and maneuvered himself enough to find a very wide open Randall Cobb to give the Packers the lead with 38 seconds left. At this point, my hearts racing, the adrenaline is pumping but also aware that Dom Capers is still the Packers defensive coordinator and that while things looked better, there was work still to be done.
After the Bears completed a pass and narrowly dropped a second one, it was desperation time for the Bears. Jay Cutler threw up a hail mary, underthrowing his receivers by about 5 yards and leading to an interception which directly ending up leading up to me high-fiving a random stanger at Rooster Creek.
Now, the playoff seedings are hung with care. So far, the Packers have survived starting Seneca Wallace & Scott Tolzein at quarterback in the same season and got enough out of Matt Flynn to make the above moments possible.
As the Packers prepare to face the 49ers in the playoffs this weekend, it will likely sting a bit if they lose to them again but considering where the Packers have been this year, this season has been a success in its own way (despite an 8-7-1 record) and most importantly they prevented the Bears from any playoff glory of their own which in itself is a victory.
After some initial issues of waiting for seating, Heather's favorite chicken sandwich not being on the menu and being switched to a seat where we could safely watch the game without risking some neck injuries (which coincided with Rodgers interception in the end zone) it was time to take in some football.
At times when i've watched a Packers game in public, i'm aware that not everyone is from Wisconsin and not everyone is going to be rooting for the Packers. Usually the tension of this is at a minimum. For example, during last year's playoff drubbing to the 49ers I was wearing a cheesehead in a sea of 49ers fans at SLO Brew but things were pretty mellow and less tense there.
On this day, there happened to be way too many Bears fans in there at the same time that were cheering fairly loudly whenever the Bears scored and occasionally sending a few glances our direction. For the first three quarters the momentum was swinging wildly in both directions.
For most of the game, the seat I was sitting in had direct view of a couple tables full of Bears fans. After they went up 28-20, things didn't look good and to reduce my frustration of having direct eye view of happy Bears fans, I switched to the other side of the table we were sitting on (based on the rest of the game, I should have done this earlier).
Shortly after this happened, the Packers moved their way down the field, eventually scoring on an Eddie Lacy touchdown to bring the score to 28-27. For a few seconds, I forgot that I was in public and blurted out the words POWER FOOTBALL loud enough for everyone to hear.
At the time, it was uncertain whether the 805 I was drinking was drinking to celebrate or drinking to drown the sorrows. Earlier in the game, I thought that if the game was decided by a touchdown or less that the game would be dubbed the Touchdown Double Check game due to the Rodgers fumble that led to a Packers touchdown in the second quarter for Boykin on a play that everyone else thought seemed to be an incomplete pass (even I thought this, I saw the play go down continued eating my pulled pork sandwich took a sip out of my beer turned around and a touchdown popped up from seemingly nowhere.
Then the final drive of the game began. The Packers started out deep in their own territory and flirted with the start of a dark, cold winter on several occasions. They got off to a nice 2 for 2 start on forth down conversions (one on a power football run by John Kuhn the other on a nice catch by Jordy Nelson) but there was still work to be done to avoid a dark & cold winter.
On 4th and 8 Aaron Rodgers narrowly avoided a season ending sack by Julius Peppers and maneuvered himself enough to find a very wide open Randall Cobb to give the Packers the lead with 38 seconds left. At this point, my hearts racing, the adrenaline is pumping but also aware that Dom Capers is still the Packers defensive coordinator and that while things looked better, there was work still to be done.
After the Bears completed a pass and narrowly dropped a second one, it was desperation time for the Bears. Jay Cutler threw up a hail mary, underthrowing his receivers by about 5 yards and leading to an interception which directly ending up leading up to me high-fiving a random stanger at Rooster Creek.
Now, the playoff seedings are hung with care. So far, the Packers have survived starting Seneca Wallace & Scott Tolzein at quarterback in the same season and got enough out of Matt Flynn to make the above moments possible.
As the Packers prepare to face the 49ers in the playoffs this weekend, it will likely sting a bit if they lose to them again but considering where the Packers have been this year, this season has been a success in its own way (despite an 8-7-1 record) and most importantly they prevented the Bears from any playoff glory of their own which in itself is a victory.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Week 17 NFL Preview
Note: Doing the NFL Preview Monday as I will be on vacation the rest of the week. Regular postings will resume again next Monday (12/30)
Panthers vs. Falcons
There was very little that was cleared up & clarified yesterday but one thing that was is the Panthers going to the playoffs and Cam Newton having a chance to show what he can do in the post-season. The Falcons are going to be coming off a short week and a season that has been excruciatingly long for them. I think they have one more disappointing performance in them for old times sake.
Panthers 17 Falcons 10
Packers vs. Bears
Well Sunday's game ended in a horrible fashion. The Packers couldn't go a measly 30 yards over the last minute, committed dumb penalty after dumb penalty and only managed to run TWO plays in FORTY THREE seconds with the game (and possibly the season) on the line. To top that off, after an excruciatingly dumb false start penalty that came with a 10-second run-off (HORRIBLE rule by the way) it took Matt Flynn SEVEN SECONDS to get a play off, he could have at least gotten the ball spiked and had in done in less than five seconds.
Anyways, the Bears not only lost but got humiliated 54-11 to the Eagles which basically made the outcome of the Packers-Steelers game basically not matter and lead to the conclusion that I was literally upset over nothing. One of these teams will successfully overcome the fact that they're not very good and somehow make it into the playoffs.
Packers 35 Bears 28
Texans vs. Titans
The Texans get a chance to extend their losing streak to 14 games and the Titans give Ryan Fitzpatrick another start before going into what is likely to be a long off-season for both teams.
Titans 27 Texans 24
Browns vs. Steelers
The Browns are biding time until they can get an elite quarterback to complement what is otherwise a team that could surprise in 2014. The Steelers need to win and get A LOT of help for this game to actually matter.
Steelers 38 Browns 14
Redskins vs. Giants
The Redskins had a chance to knock the Cowboys out of the playoffs and failed (what else is new) while the Giants had a chance to do the same to the Lions and were successful in doing so (thank you) and giving them a little sliver in pride in what has been an underwhelming season. Basically, the team with more pride and dignity wins this game which basically means the Redskins pick up their 13th loss.
Giants 23 Redskins 3
Ravens vs. Bengals
The Bengals are safely in the playoffs and looking to actually win a playoff game for the first time in several years while the Ravens are fighting for their playoff life. Playoff life fight trumps playing for seeding here.
Ravens 21 Bengals 10
Eagles vs. Cowboys
The battle that determines playoff representation for the NFC East. Right now, the Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders as Nick Foles has quietly put up a very strong year. Coming off a 54-point showing versus the Bears and going in against an incompetent Cowboys defense, this could get very ugly for the Cowboys defense.
Eagles 49 Cowboys 34
Jaguars vs. Colts
Yes, Jacksonville is one of the worst teams at 4-11 but that does exceed expectations that everyone had for them. The Colts finally showed that they could do playoff damage by getting a nice win over the Chiefs and they have a chance to inch their way into the 3-spot and get an easier first round match up.
Colts 27 Jaguars 10
Jets vs Dolphins
Geno Smith had a nice game and win for the Jets so I guess he's elite for at least this week. The Dolphins were clearly uncomfortable playing in the horrible weather in Buffalo and it showed in their performance. With the season on the line and playing at home, I think the Dolphins get the win and back into the playoffs as a 6-seed.
Dolphins 14 Jets 10
Lions vs. Vikings
Basically a battle of coaches who are one game away from losing their jobs. In all honesty, the Lions should have ran away with the NFC North on talent alone but bad coaching and immature play (which I feel is a reflection on their coach) has cost them a playoff spot. If they do make a good coaching hire in the off-season, this is a team that could get scary good very quickly. The Vikings will likely be an after-though regardless of who their head coach is next year.
Vikings 27 Lions 21
Bills vs. Patriots
The Bills got a nice prideful win by either postponing or preventing the Dolphins from getting into the playoffs. The Patriots still have something to play for (#1) seed in the event that the Broncos lose. Don't expect Buffalo to finish the season with a victory.
Patriots 38 Bills 10
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Tampa's season may be a bust but they could end it on a high note by beating the Saints and possibly knocking them out of the playoffs but with the Saints playing at home, I just don't see it happening.
Saints 31 Buccaneers 10
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Broncos are in control of whether or not they get the #1 seed. Playing the Raiders, I don't imagine this is something that will be difficult for them to accomplish.
Broncos 49 Raiders 10
49ers vs. Cardinals
For the Cardinals, they are in must win territory. For the 49ers they should have a little bit of breathing room after taking care of business against the Falcons but they would be better off winning out and not leaving anything to chance. I think the Cardinals pull the upset here, they may not be the better team but they are peaking at the right time, their defense is very strong and they just pulled off a road win at Seattle. If they get into the playoffs they could surprise a lot of people.
Cardinals 14 49ers 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
A battle of playing for seeding versus playing for their playoff lives, I think the Chargers win this game, whether it is a relevant or pointless win remains to be seen.
Chargers 38 Chiefs 28
Rams vs. Seahawks
The Rams have been quietly resilient and not terrible despite starting Kellen Clemens at QB for much of the year. The Seahawks are looking to have a strong bounce back game after losing at home for the first time in a couple of years.
Seahawks 35 Rams 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
There was very little that was cleared up & clarified yesterday but one thing that was is the Panthers going to the playoffs and Cam Newton having a chance to show what he can do in the post-season. The Falcons are going to be coming off a short week and a season that has been excruciatingly long for them. I think they have one more disappointing performance in them for old times sake.
Panthers 17 Falcons 10
Packers vs. Bears
Well Sunday's game ended in a horrible fashion. The Packers couldn't go a measly 30 yards over the last minute, committed dumb penalty after dumb penalty and only managed to run TWO plays in FORTY THREE seconds with the game (and possibly the season) on the line. To top that off, after an excruciatingly dumb false start penalty that came with a 10-second run-off (HORRIBLE rule by the way) it took Matt Flynn SEVEN SECONDS to get a play off, he could have at least gotten the ball spiked and had in done in less than five seconds.
Anyways, the Bears not only lost but got humiliated 54-11 to the Eagles which basically made the outcome of the Packers-Steelers game basically not matter and lead to the conclusion that I was literally upset over nothing. One of these teams will successfully overcome the fact that they're not very good and somehow make it into the playoffs.
Packers 35 Bears 28
Texans vs. Titans
The Texans get a chance to extend their losing streak to 14 games and the Titans give Ryan Fitzpatrick another start before going into what is likely to be a long off-season for both teams.
Titans 27 Texans 24
Browns vs. Steelers
The Browns are biding time until they can get an elite quarterback to complement what is otherwise a team that could surprise in 2014. The Steelers need to win and get A LOT of help for this game to actually matter.
Steelers 38 Browns 14
Redskins vs. Giants
The Redskins had a chance to knock the Cowboys out of the playoffs and failed (what else is new) while the Giants had a chance to do the same to the Lions and were successful in doing so (thank you) and giving them a little sliver in pride in what has been an underwhelming season. Basically, the team with more pride and dignity wins this game which basically means the Redskins pick up their 13th loss.
Giants 23 Redskins 3
Ravens vs. Bengals
The Bengals are safely in the playoffs and looking to actually win a playoff game for the first time in several years while the Ravens are fighting for their playoff life. Playoff life fight trumps playing for seeding here.
Ravens 21 Bengals 10
Eagles vs. Cowboys
The battle that determines playoff representation for the NFC East. Right now, the Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders as Nick Foles has quietly put up a very strong year. Coming off a 54-point showing versus the Bears and going in against an incompetent Cowboys defense, this could get very ugly for the Cowboys defense.
Eagles 49 Cowboys 34
Jaguars vs. Colts
Yes, Jacksonville is one of the worst teams at 4-11 but that does exceed expectations that everyone had for them. The Colts finally showed that they could do playoff damage by getting a nice win over the Chiefs and they have a chance to inch their way into the 3-spot and get an easier first round match up.
Colts 27 Jaguars 10
Jets vs Dolphins
Geno Smith had a nice game and win for the Jets so I guess he's elite for at least this week. The Dolphins were clearly uncomfortable playing in the horrible weather in Buffalo and it showed in their performance. With the season on the line and playing at home, I think the Dolphins get the win and back into the playoffs as a 6-seed.
Dolphins 14 Jets 10
Lions vs. Vikings
Basically a battle of coaches who are one game away from losing their jobs. In all honesty, the Lions should have ran away with the NFC North on talent alone but bad coaching and immature play (which I feel is a reflection on their coach) has cost them a playoff spot. If they do make a good coaching hire in the off-season, this is a team that could get scary good very quickly. The Vikings will likely be an after-though regardless of who their head coach is next year.
Vikings 27 Lions 21
Bills vs. Patriots
The Bills got a nice prideful win by either postponing or preventing the Dolphins from getting into the playoffs. The Patriots still have something to play for (#1) seed in the event that the Broncos lose. Don't expect Buffalo to finish the season with a victory.
Patriots 38 Bills 10
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Tampa's season may be a bust but they could end it on a high note by beating the Saints and possibly knocking them out of the playoffs but with the Saints playing at home, I just don't see it happening.
Saints 31 Buccaneers 10
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Broncos are in control of whether or not they get the #1 seed. Playing the Raiders, I don't imagine this is something that will be difficult for them to accomplish.
Broncos 49 Raiders 10
49ers vs. Cardinals
For the Cardinals, they are in must win territory. For the 49ers they should have a little bit of breathing room after taking care of business against the Falcons but they would be better off winning out and not leaving anything to chance. I think the Cardinals pull the upset here, they may not be the better team but they are peaking at the right time, their defense is very strong and they just pulled off a road win at Seattle. If they get into the playoffs they could surprise a lot of people.
Cardinals 14 49ers 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
A battle of playing for seeding versus playing for their playoff lives, I think the Chargers win this game, whether it is a relevant or pointless win remains to be seen.
Chargers 38 Chiefs 28
Rams vs. Seahawks
The Rams have been quietly resilient and not terrible despite starting Kellen Clemens at QB for much of the year. The Seahawks are looking to have a strong bounce back game after losing at home for the first time in a couple of years.
Seahawks 35 Rams 10
Friday, December 20, 2013
Week 16 NFL Preview
Now on to seeing what's on tap for the second to last week of the NFL Season:
Dolphins vs. Bills
For the Dolphins, the stakes are high as this is a must win for them if they want to keep up in the playoff race and/or possibly overtake the last spot if Baltimore stumbles. The Bills have nothing more than pride to play for as they and the Titans are holding up the 5-9 corner of the NFL Standings.
Dolphins 28 Bills 17
Saints vs. Panthers
This game is very crucial for both teams. The winner of this match up moves into the #2 seed in the NFC and gets in line for a first round bye. The loser of the game goes into the wild card battle and has to fend off Arizona just to make sure they get into the playoffs. My first instinct is go with the Saints because they've been there before. My second instinct is that their road struggles have extended to teams that are well below their talent level (Jets, Rams). I think Cam Newton busts out big time in this game.
Panthers 34 Saints 14
Vikings vs. Bengals
The Vikings have their top 3 rushers battling injuries but i'm not sure whether it matters as it this point they may be better off not winning to jockey for draft position. The Bengals are looking to solidify and clinch their playoff spot and maybe sneak into the 2-seed should New England falter down the stretch.
Bengals 24 Vikings 20
Broncos vs. Texans
The Broncos are in the playoffs but still have work to do to secure home-field advantage through the playoffs. The Texans have gone from being a train wreck to being a burning dumpster fire. They could bounce back next year with Bridgewater, a new coaching staff and better luck in close games but for now this game could get ugly.
Broncos 49 Texans 13
Titans vs. Jaguars
The first game that is a battle of teams that are both eliminated. The Titans nearly pulled off a crazy comeback in the last few minutes on Sunday only to lose in overtime, only to have nobody notice because of Zeplen's magic Packers outfit and their crazy comeback against the Cowboys was happening at the same time. They're probably in for a letdown in this one.
Jaguars 17 Titans 14
Colts vs. Chiefs
A possible playoff preview as these teams would be going up against each other if the playoffs were to start today. I'm leaning towards the Chiefs on this one as their offense is peaking at the right time and it seems like the Colts peaked around mid-season and have eased their way into the playoffs from there.
Chiefs 38 Colts 17
Browns vs. Jets
The Browns are jockeying for draft position to fix their sorry QB situation, the Jets the only question is whether Rex Ryan gets fired in a couple weeks or is brought back for another season.
Jets 10 Browns 0
Buccaneers vs. Rams
A couple of bad teams that have at least shown some signs of pride over the second half of the season. The Rams are coming off a nice upset of the Saints and I think that momentum carries over into Sunday.
Rams 24 Buccaneers 3
Cowboys vs. Redskins
The Cowboys are coming off a pretty awesome collapse against the Packers but still have a chance to redeem their season by winning the NFC East and possibly saving Jason Garrett's job. The Redskins are auditioning Cousins for trade bait and have no real incentive to win ( or at least that's how they've been playing).
Cowboys 42 Redskins 21
Giants vs. Lions
The Giants are already out of the playoff picture while the Lions tend to play like they are out of it at times coming off a loss to Justin Tucker's foot. My gut instinct is that the Lions meltdown continues and that they will go into next season with a new coach (they have too much talent to lose as often as they have the last couple years).
Giants 17 Lions 3
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Cardinals are in a must win situation and need help to prevent themselves from being the best team to miss the playoffs (maybe if they gave Ellington the ball more often than Mendenhall they wouldn't be in this situation). Meanwhile, the Seahawks are very close to clinching home field advantage and playing at home where they are just about unbeatable.
Seahawks 31 Cardinals 7
Steelers vs. Packers
In this week's episode of Zeplen and the magic outfit, will the Packers win another game with the power of him being in the magic outfit for the entire game. Will the Steelers be mathematically eliminated anyway before the start of this game? Will the Packers all-time record improve to 2-0 in games that i've watched at Rooster Creek. How will Matt Flynn follow up to last week's comeback? Stay tuned and find out.
Packers 35 Steelers 20
Raiders vs. Chargers
The Raiders at the 1:25 slot, the scheduled game prompting Heather and I to find somewhere else to watch the Packers game. Chargers look in line for another possibly meaningless win.
Chargers 28 Raiders 17
Bears vs. Eagles
Hey, Eagles its okay that you gave up 48 to the Vikings of all people but listen up. We did you a solid favor by beating the Cowboys last week, you think you can return the favor by beating the Bears on Sunday? Thank you.
Eagles 38 Bears 17
49ers vs. Falcons
The Falcons are basically playing out the string and getting ready to (hopefully) return to relevance in 2014. The 49ers are playing their last game at Candlestick and need to win to possibly eradicate the Cardinals playoff hopes.
49ers 28 Falcons 14
Dolphins vs. Bills
For the Dolphins, the stakes are high as this is a must win for them if they want to keep up in the playoff race and/or possibly overtake the last spot if Baltimore stumbles. The Bills have nothing more than pride to play for as they and the Titans are holding up the 5-9 corner of the NFL Standings.
Dolphins 28 Bills 17
Saints vs. Panthers
This game is very crucial for both teams. The winner of this match up moves into the #2 seed in the NFC and gets in line for a first round bye. The loser of the game goes into the wild card battle and has to fend off Arizona just to make sure they get into the playoffs. My first instinct is go with the Saints because they've been there before. My second instinct is that their road struggles have extended to teams that are well below their talent level (Jets, Rams). I think Cam Newton busts out big time in this game.
Panthers 34 Saints 14
Vikings vs. Bengals
The Vikings have their top 3 rushers battling injuries but i'm not sure whether it matters as it this point they may be better off not winning to jockey for draft position. The Bengals are looking to solidify and clinch their playoff spot and maybe sneak into the 2-seed should New England falter down the stretch.
Bengals 24 Vikings 20
Broncos vs. Texans
The Broncos are in the playoffs but still have work to do to secure home-field advantage through the playoffs. The Texans have gone from being a train wreck to being a burning dumpster fire. They could bounce back next year with Bridgewater, a new coaching staff and better luck in close games but for now this game could get ugly.
Broncos 49 Texans 13
Titans vs. Jaguars
The first game that is a battle of teams that are both eliminated. The Titans nearly pulled off a crazy comeback in the last few minutes on Sunday only to lose in overtime, only to have nobody notice because of Zeplen's magic Packers outfit and their crazy comeback against the Cowboys was happening at the same time. They're probably in for a letdown in this one.
Jaguars 17 Titans 14
Colts vs. Chiefs
A possible playoff preview as these teams would be going up against each other if the playoffs were to start today. I'm leaning towards the Chiefs on this one as their offense is peaking at the right time and it seems like the Colts peaked around mid-season and have eased their way into the playoffs from there.
Chiefs 38 Colts 17
Browns vs. Jets
The Browns are jockeying for draft position to fix their sorry QB situation, the Jets the only question is whether Rex Ryan gets fired in a couple weeks or is brought back for another season.
Jets 10 Browns 0
Buccaneers vs. Rams
A couple of bad teams that have at least shown some signs of pride over the second half of the season. The Rams are coming off a nice upset of the Saints and I think that momentum carries over into Sunday.
Rams 24 Buccaneers 3
Cowboys vs. Redskins
The Cowboys are coming off a pretty awesome collapse against the Packers but still have a chance to redeem their season by winning the NFC East and possibly saving Jason Garrett's job. The Redskins are auditioning Cousins for trade bait and have no real incentive to win ( or at least that's how they've been playing).
Cowboys 42 Redskins 21
Giants vs. Lions
The Giants are already out of the playoff picture while the Lions tend to play like they are out of it at times coming off a loss to Justin Tucker's foot. My gut instinct is that the Lions meltdown continues and that they will go into next season with a new coach (they have too much talent to lose as often as they have the last couple years).
Giants 17 Lions 3
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Cardinals are in a must win situation and need help to prevent themselves from being the best team to miss the playoffs (maybe if they gave Ellington the ball more often than Mendenhall they wouldn't be in this situation). Meanwhile, the Seahawks are very close to clinching home field advantage and playing at home where they are just about unbeatable.
Seahawks 31 Cardinals 7
Steelers vs. Packers
In this week's episode of Zeplen and the magic outfit, will the Packers win another game with the power of him being in the magic outfit for the entire game. Will the Steelers be mathematically eliminated anyway before the start of this game? Will the Packers all-time record improve to 2-0 in games that i've watched at Rooster Creek. How will Matt Flynn follow up to last week's comeback? Stay tuned and find out.
Packers 35 Steelers 20
Raiders vs. Chargers
The Raiders at the 1:25 slot, the scheduled game prompting Heather and I to find somewhere else to watch the Packers game. Chargers look in line for another possibly meaningless win.
Chargers 28 Raiders 17
Bears vs. Eagles
Hey, Eagles its okay that you gave up 48 to the Vikings of all people but listen up. We did you a solid favor by beating the Cowboys last week, you think you can return the favor by beating the Bears on Sunday? Thank you.
Eagles 38 Bears 17
49ers vs. Falcons
The Falcons are basically playing out the string and getting ready to (hopefully) return to relevance in 2014. The 49ers are playing their last game at Candlestick and need to win to possibly eradicate the Cardinals playoff hopes.
49ers 28 Falcons 14
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Do They Belong In the Hall? Thomas, Timlin, Trammel & Walker
Well, we've made it, the last round of people on the 2014 Official Hall of Fame Ballot and to see whether or not these people belong.
Frank Thomas:
Up until this write up, I totally forgot that I had the video game Frank Thomas Big Hurt Baseball when I was a kid. In an era with a lot of offense, Frank Thomas stood out above the crowd. He had a very good eye as he led the league in walks four times and led the league in OPS+ on three occasions (1991, 1994 & 1997). He had a seven year peak that was absurd (OPS+ above 170 from 1990 to 1997). Even after this stretch, he had 10 years of very good baseball in him. The only real downfall to his game was that he was pretty terrible defensively -23.4 dWAR for his career.
On historical precedence, he has a decent case. 4 of the 5 Hall of Fame Statistics on baseball-reference rate him favorably. He only has three similars in the Hall (Mantle, McCovey & Foxx) but this has more to do with many of these players either still active (Pujols), haven't been retired long enough to be eligible (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome) or people I would vote for if I had a vote (Bagwell).
Verdict: Yes
Mike Timlin:
Not sure how he got on the ballot. Yeah, he had a nice long career, a solid ERA+ (125) a few random seasons as the designated ninth inning guy. I don't see a scenario where he makes it more than one year on the ballot (or even gets any votes).
Verdict: No
Alan Trammel:
One thing is for sure, he's not getting in as a manager. He is on his 13th year on the ballot and is coming off a 33% showing. At first glance, this is another 1980s Detroit Tigers player that has a higher than expected hall vote total. On the offensive end, he was a good hitter (110 OPS+) with one very strong season (1987). One thing that helps him is that the numbers back up his reputation as a very strong defensive player (22 dWAR) at one of the the most demanding positions of shortstop.
If he got into the Hall of Fame, it would not be completely unprecedented. He does rank favorably in the Hall of Fame Monitor and JAWS and two of his similars (Larkin & Sandberg) are in the hall of fame. So he does have somewhat of a case, but not strong enough that I would vote for him if given the chance.
Verdict: No
Larry Walker:
The one knock against Walker is that his accomplishments and numbers are a product of Coors field. While he did get help from his homepark, he also put up good numbers when he played for other teams and he was a very productive player playing on the road (to the tune of a .865 OPS).
In the first few years of eligibility his support has stalled in the 20% ranges. 3 of the 5 Hall of Fame Stat monitors favor Walker and he has three comparibiles in the hall (Snider, DiMaggio & Mize). Like Trammel, while there is some precedence to someone of his caliber getting in, there are more deserving candidates out there.
Verdict: No
Frank Thomas:
Up until this write up, I totally forgot that I had the video game Frank Thomas Big Hurt Baseball when I was a kid. In an era with a lot of offense, Frank Thomas stood out above the crowd. He had a very good eye as he led the league in walks four times and led the league in OPS+ on three occasions (1991, 1994 & 1997). He had a seven year peak that was absurd (OPS+ above 170 from 1990 to 1997). Even after this stretch, he had 10 years of very good baseball in him. The only real downfall to his game was that he was pretty terrible defensively -23.4 dWAR for his career.
On historical precedence, he has a decent case. 4 of the 5 Hall of Fame Statistics on baseball-reference rate him favorably. He only has three similars in the Hall (Mantle, McCovey & Foxx) but this has more to do with many of these players either still active (Pujols), haven't been retired long enough to be eligible (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome) or people I would vote for if I had a vote (Bagwell).
Verdict: Yes
Mike Timlin:
Not sure how he got on the ballot. Yeah, he had a nice long career, a solid ERA+ (125) a few random seasons as the designated ninth inning guy. I don't see a scenario where he makes it more than one year on the ballot (or even gets any votes).
Verdict: No
Alan Trammel:
One thing is for sure, he's not getting in as a manager. He is on his 13th year on the ballot and is coming off a 33% showing. At first glance, this is another 1980s Detroit Tigers player that has a higher than expected hall vote total. On the offensive end, he was a good hitter (110 OPS+) with one very strong season (1987). One thing that helps him is that the numbers back up his reputation as a very strong defensive player (22 dWAR) at one of the the most demanding positions of shortstop.
If he got into the Hall of Fame, it would not be completely unprecedented. He does rank favorably in the Hall of Fame Monitor and JAWS and two of his similars (Larkin & Sandberg) are in the hall of fame. So he does have somewhat of a case, but not strong enough that I would vote for him if given the chance.
Verdict: No
Larry Walker:
The one knock against Walker is that his accomplishments and numbers are a product of Coors field. While he did get help from his homepark, he also put up good numbers when he played for other teams and he was a very productive player playing on the road (to the tune of a .865 OPS).
In the first few years of eligibility his support has stalled in the 20% ranges. 3 of the 5 Hall of Fame Stat monitors favor Walker and he has three comparibiles in the hall (Snider, DiMaggio & Mize). Like Trammel, while there is some precedence to someone of his caliber getting in, there are more deserving candidates out there.
Verdict: No
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
If a 16 Team NFL Playoff were to start today........
Here's what it would look like:
Link to standings can be found here:
AFC:
(1) Broncos vs. (8) Chargers
In a rematch of the Thursday night game. In the real world, this was a pointless win but in this mock scenario it is a major confidence booster. As it gets colder in Denver, Peyton Manning's flaw of struggling in cold weather games hurts while the Chargers having someone as coach NOT named Norv Turner significantly decreases the chances of the Chargers fumbling away a golden opportunity.
Pick: Chargers
(4) Colts vs. (5) Chiefs
Both teams took care of business against bad teams on Sunday. Jamal Charles went absolutely crazy getting five touchdowns versus the Raiders. The Colts boringly but quietly took care of business against the Texans. I'm not sold on Andrew Luck in a playoff game and the same could be said about the Chiefs so something would have to give. I'd go with Kansas City as their offense is picking the right time to put up some crazy numbers.
Pick: Chiefs
(3) Bengals vs. (6) Ravens
The Ravens (specifically Justin Tucker's foot is coming off a victory) and this would be a case for a lower seeded team getting things to click at the right time in addition to not being sold on Marvin Lewis/Andy Dalton in a post-season environment.
Pick: Ravens
(2) Patriots vs. (7) Dolphins
Yes, the Dolphins pulled off a dramatic victory versus the Patriots the other day in Miami. Doing this in 80 degree Miami weather is one thing, doing it in January in Foxboro would be too tall of an order.
Pick: Patriots
Semi-Finals:
(8) Chargers vs. (5) Chiefs
The Chargers manage to stumble their way into another beneficial match up where they get a time with more wins but at the same time a team that they have proven to be capable of beating. This seems like a classic game where Andy Reid would run into his one flaw (which is still shorter list than his strengths) of managing time outs.
Pick: Chargers
(6) Ravens vs. (2) Patriots
And they meet again in the Playoffs. I think the Ravens would keep this game close but Joe Flacco didn't really do much to inspire confidence despite last night's win over the Lions.
Pick: Patriots
AFC Championship
(8) Chargers vs. (2) Patriots
In this mock scenario, the Chargers have basically stumbled upwards towards the AFC Championship game more based on their opposition than anything else. I wouldn't see them stumbling upwards to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Patriots
NFC
(1) Seahawks vs. (8) Packers
The Packers are making a nice spirited run and keeping the seat warm until Aaron Rodgers returns. Nice spirited run doesn't stand much of a chance with the 12th man & a qb (Russell Wilson) who hasn't lost a home game yet.
Pick: Seahawks
(4) Bears vs. (5) Panthers
Even though Cam Newton has yet to play in a playoff game, I think there's an advantage with him over Jay Cutler and their defense is downright filthy.
Pick: Panthers
(3) Eagles vs. (6) 49ers
The Eagles have been one of the more interesting red-zone friendly teams this year. I think Nick Foles would do good in this game but at this point i'm not trusting a team that made Matt Cassell look like a hall of famer to win a playoff game.
Pick: 49ers
(2) Saints vs. (7) Cardinals
The Cardinals have been much better than expected this year but get a very unfavorable match up here. They have to play the Saints on the road and the Saints have already proven themselves capable of running the Cardinals out of the building.
Pick: Saints
NFC Divisional
(1) Seahawks vs. (5) Panthers
Cam Newton has made great strides and looks on his way to being a star, that doesn't mean he'll bet Seattle on the road though.
Pick: Seahawks
(2) Saints vs. (6) 49ers
The Saints have already edged out the 49ers, i'd expect the same to happen if they meet in the playoffs.
NFC Championship
(1) Seahawks vs. (2) Saints
Sticking with my pick from last week of the Seahawks beating the Saints for the NFC Title.
Super Bowl:
For this week's mock 16, i'm reversing course on my Super Bowl pick by going with the Seahawks over the Patriots.
Link to standings can be found here:
AFC:
(1) Broncos vs. (8) Chargers
In a rematch of the Thursday night game. In the real world, this was a pointless win but in this mock scenario it is a major confidence booster. As it gets colder in Denver, Peyton Manning's flaw of struggling in cold weather games hurts while the Chargers having someone as coach NOT named Norv Turner significantly decreases the chances of the Chargers fumbling away a golden opportunity.
Pick: Chargers
(4) Colts vs. (5) Chiefs
Both teams took care of business against bad teams on Sunday. Jamal Charles went absolutely crazy getting five touchdowns versus the Raiders. The Colts boringly but quietly took care of business against the Texans. I'm not sold on Andrew Luck in a playoff game and the same could be said about the Chiefs so something would have to give. I'd go with Kansas City as their offense is picking the right time to put up some crazy numbers.
Pick: Chiefs
(3) Bengals vs. (6) Ravens
The Ravens (specifically Justin Tucker's foot is coming off a victory) and this would be a case for a lower seeded team getting things to click at the right time in addition to not being sold on Marvin Lewis/Andy Dalton in a post-season environment.
Pick: Ravens
(2) Patriots vs. (7) Dolphins
Yes, the Dolphins pulled off a dramatic victory versus the Patriots the other day in Miami. Doing this in 80 degree Miami weather is one thing, doing it in January in Foxboro would be too tall of an order.
Pick: Patriots
Semi-Finals:
(8) Chargers vs. (5) Chiefs
The Chargers manage to stumble their way into another beneficial match up where they get a time with more wins but at the same time a team that they have proven to be capable of beating. This seems like a classic game where Andy Reid would run into his one flaw (which is still shorter list than his strengths) of managing time outs.
Pick: Chargers
(6) Ravens vs. (2) Patriots
And they meet again in the Playoffs. I think the Ravens would keep this game close but Joe Flacco didn't really do much to inspire confidence despite last night's win over the Lions.
Pick: Patriots
AFC Championship
(8) Chargers vs. (2) Patriots
In this mock scenario, the Chargers have basically stumbled upwards towards the AFC Championship game more based on their opposition than anything else. I wouldn't see them stumbling upwards to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Patriots
NFC
(1) Seahawks vs. (8) Packers
The Packers are making a nice spirited run and keeping the seat warm until Aaron Rodgers returns. Nice spirited run doesn't stand much of a chance with the 12th man & a qb (Russell Wilson) who hasn't lost a home game yet.
Pick: Seahawks
(4) Bears vs. (5) Panthers
Even though Cam Newton has yet to play in a playoff game, I think there's an advantage with him over Jay Cutler and their defense is downright filthy.
Pick: Panthers
(3) Eagles vs. (6) 49ers
The Eagles have been one of the more interesting red-zone friendly teams this year. I think Nick Foles would do good in this game but at this point i'm not trusting a team that made Matt Cassell look like a hall of famer to win a playoff game.
Pick: 49ers
(2) Saints vs. (7) Cardinals
The Cardinals have been much better than expected this year but get a very unfavorable match up here. They have to play the Saints on the road and the Saints have already proven themselves capable of running the Cardinals out of the building.
Pick: Saints
NFC Divisional
(1) Seahawks vs. (5) Panthers
Cam Newton has made great strides and looks on his way to being a star, that doesn't mean he'll bet Seattle on the road though.
Pick: Seahawks
(2) Saints vs. (6) 49ers
The Saints have already edged out the 49ers, i'd expect the same to happen if they meet in the playoffs.
NFC Championship
(1) Seahawks vs. (2) Saints
Sticking with my pick from last week of the Seahawks beating the Saints for the NFC Title.
Super Bowl:
For this week's mock 16, i'm reversing course on my Super Bowl pick by going with the Seahawks over the Patriots.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Do They Belong In The Hall: Sexson, Smith, Snow & Sosa
Richie Sexson:
Is on the ballot for the first time. I remember him primarily as being one of the few quality players on some very horrible Brewers teams. He was a player that came and went via a couple of block buster trades (first arriving in a 2000 deadline deal from Cleveland that brought Bob Wickman to the Indians....and also featured Marco Scutaro as the immortal player to be named later.
After hitting plenty of homers in the first few years at Miller Park, he got shipped out west to Arizona after the 2003 season in a blockbuster deal that the Brewers got the upper hand in. While Richie Sexson only played 23 games in an Arizona uniform, the Brewers got several useful pieces in return such as Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell and Lyle Overbay who got regular playing time as the Brewers slowly inched their way towards respectability.
However, when it comes to the hall, not a chance. Yeah he had a couple 45 home run seasons but he did this when those type of seasons were a dime a dozen and he complemented it with defense that was well below replacement level (-12.3 dWAR) for his career. There is basically zero precedent for a player of his profile getting into Cooperstown.
Verdict: No
Lee Smith:
My preconceived impression before reviewing the numbers is that Smith is on the ballot due to getting to spend several years as the designated ninth inning pitcher. Granted he did rack up a lot of saves and led the league in this total four times (1983, 1991, 1992 & 1994) but like pitching wins opportunity can play as big a role as ability. He did have a nice era+ 132 but also didn't have the type of shutdown WHIP (1.25) you'd like to see with a designated ninth inning pitcher.
Another thing going against him is that he only had three seasons with a WAR above 3, with none of these coming after 1986. There is some precedence for a player of his caliber to get in (he ranks favorably on the Hall of Fame Monitor statistic and Rollie Fingers & Bruce Sutter are amongst his similars). However, the vast majority of whats out there indicates that hes not a hall of famer.
Verdict: No
J.T. Snow
Hey, his OPS+ (105) matches that of Jack Morris, lets put Snow in the hall of fame. In all seriousness, no. He did win five gold gloves, all in seasons where he posted a negative dWAR. If he played more than 7 games of his career with the Yankees he could have been over-rated like Derek Jeter. I'd be surprised if he even gets a vote.
Verdict: No
Sammy Sosa:
For better or worse, Sosa is one of the poster child of everything that people decided was wrong (after the fact) about late 90s baseball, although it was okay at the time because it helped boost performance in the years after the 1994 strike.
Sosa hit a lot of home runs and was very good for a five year stretch (OPS+ over 150 from 1998 through 2002). At the same time, his performance before and after this spike was highly pedestrian which brought his OPS+ 128, something you would expect better out of for someone who hit 600+ home runs which at the surface makes his case muddled.
On a numerical standpoint, his case is much stronger than I anticipated. Out of the 5 HOF statistic monitors, Sosa ranks favorably in three of them and all of his top ten similars are either in the hall (Schmidt, Jackson, Killebrew, Mathews, Mantel, Stargel & McCovey) or have not been retired long enough to be eligible (Thome, Griffey & Sheffield). I came into this not sure whether he's a yes or no but coming out of this posting definitively in the yes crowd.
Verdict: Yes
Is on the ballot for the first time. I remember him primarily as being one of the few quality players on some very horrible Brewers teams. He was a player that came and went via a couple of block buster trades (first arriving in a 2000 deadline deal from Cleveland that brought Bob Wickman to the Indians....and also featured Marco Scutaro as the immortal player to be named later.
After hitting plenty of homers in the first few years at Miller Park, he got shipped out west to Arizona after the 2003 season in a blockbuster deal that the Brewers got the upper hand in. While Richie Sexson only played 23 games in an Arizona uniform, the Brewers got several useful pieces in return such as Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell and Lyle Overbay who got regular playing time as the Brewers slowly inched their way towards respectability.
However, when it comes to the hall, not a chance. Yeah he had a couple 45 home run seasons but he did this when those type of seasons were a dime a dozen and he complemented it with defense that was well below replacement level (-12.3 dWAR) for his career. There is basically zero precedent for a player of his profile getting into Cooperstown.
Verdict: No
Lee Smith:
My preconceived impression before reviewing the numbers is that Smith is on the ballot due to getting to spend several years as the designated ninth inning pitcher. Granted he did rack up a lot of saves and led the league in this total four times (1983, 1991, 1992 & 1994) but like pitching wins opportunity can play as big a role as ability. He did have a nice era+ 132 but also didn't have the type of shutdown WHIP (1.25) you'd like to see with a designated ninth inning pitcher.
Another thing going against him is that he only had three seasons with a WAR above 3, with none of these coming after 1986. There is some precedence for a player of his caliber to get in (he ranks favorably on the Hall of Fame Monitor statistic and Rollie Fingers & Bruce Sutter are amongst his similars). However, the vast majority of whats out there indicates that hes not a hall of famer.
Verdict: No
J.T. Snow
Hey, his OPS+ (105) matches that of Jack Morris, lets put Snow in the hall of fame. In all seriousness, no. He did win five gold gloves, all in seasons where he posted a negative dWAR. If he played more than 7 games of his career with the Yankees he could have been over-rated like Derek Jeter. I'd be surprised if he even gets a vote.
Verdict: No
Sammy Sosa:
For better or worse, Sosa is one of the poster child of everything that people decided was wrong (after the fact) about late 90s baseball, although it was okay at the time because it helped boost performance in the years after the 1994 strike.
Sosa hit a lot of home runs and was very good for a five year stretch (OPS+ over 150 from 1998 through 2002). At the same time, his performance before and after this spike was highly pedestrian which brought his OPS+ 128, something you would expect better out of for someone who hit 600+ home runs which at the surface makes his case muddled.
On a numerical standpoint, his case is much stronger than I anticipated. Out of the 5 HOF statistic monitors, Sosa ranks favorably in three of them and all of his top ten similars are either in the hall (Schmidt, Jackson, Killebrew, Mathews, Mantel, Stargel & McCovey) or have not been retired long enough to be eligible (Thome, Griffey & Sheffield). I came into this not sure whether he's a yes or no but coming out of this posting definitively in the yes crowd.
Verdict: Yes
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