Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Mock 32 What If Scenario

One of the websites that I frequent is whatifsports.com. One of the many aspects of this website is the ability to simulate match ups between historical teams (i.e. what if the 27 Yankees played the 86 Mets) and see who would win. They've even done matchups where they mock what a football playoff in the 2014 format would look like. In this scenario, the match ups are simulated 10,000+ times which tends to make these match ups have very few upsets.

I was curious on how the final mock 32 would look if the games were played so I simulated the matchups on whatifsports.com. I kept the settings basic (i.e. all games played at home field of best seeded team and weather settings were set at default 70 degrees and no wind). When I did this, heres how it played out.

Round of 32:

Florida State 61 Bowling Green 10
Arizona State 29 UCLA 17
South Carolina 25 Notre Dame 9
Missouri 27 Northern Illinois 24
Michigan State 37 Vanderbilt 3
Oklahoma State 44 Texas A & M 25
Miami(FL) 28 Stanford 21
Fresno State 49 Clemson 45
Alabama 41 Texas 25
LSU 37 Wisconsin 17
Baylor 54 Iowa 10
Duke 42 Oklahoma 28
Cincinnati 27 Auburn 9
UCF 47 Louisville 17
Ohio State 39 USC 30
Georgia 45 Oregon 31

Main takeaways from the first round is that Florida State & Baylor asserted themselves as the dominants teams, the Hurricanes proved they could upset a quality opponent. Also, there were some shocking upsets including Auburn being dominated by Cincinnati. In addition, Clemson had one of their finest Clemsoning hours giving up two tds in the final 3:31 to Fresno State. Other teams that pulled off upsets included Duke & Georgia

Sweet 16:

Florida State 40 Arizona State 38
South Carolina 27 Missouri 10
Oklahoma State 30 Michigan State 23
Fresno State 31 Miami (FL) 17
Alabama 45 LSU 31
Baylor 51 Duke 13
Cincinnati 34 UCF 17
Georgia 48 Ohio State 34

Baylor continued their scoreboard lighting ways by putting 51 up on Duke. Florida State showed some vulnerability by nearly being upset by Arizona State. Arizona State took the lead on a 3 yd td run w/2:24 left before Florida State came back with a game winning field goal with 44 seconds left. Ohio State showed their vulnerability as an untested team as they exited via a loss to Georgia

Elite 8:

South Carolina 36 Florida State 33 (3 OT)
Fresno State 24 Oklahoma State 23
Alabama 40 Baylor 25
Georgia 41 Cincinnati 21

We had ourselves a couple of instant classics here. Florida State scored 10 points in the final five minutes of regulation to force overtime but South Carolina ultimately won on a 12 yard touchdown. Fresno State won their game on a touchdown scored with 19 seconds left. Just like in real life, the SEC is showing a strong presence with 3 teams in the final four.

Final 4:

Fresno State 34 South Carolina 29
Alabama 34 Georgia 20

Another Fresno State instant classic. South Carolina went up with a field goal with 12 seconds left only for Derek Carr to win the game for Fresno State on a hail mary. Meanwhile, Alabama took care of business against Georgia.

Final:

Alabama 42 Fresno State 37

Derek Carr & Fresno State's Cinderella run ends here. Alabama quietly took care of business with games (except for the final) never close enough to be an instant classic but never gaudy enough to give false hope, they just knew how to win. Since whatifsports has this data available for the past few years worth of teams and it being between football and baseball season, there is a possibility I may recreate mock 32's for past years if the mood strikes me.