Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He's had a couple of solid starts since being acquired by the Dodgers. Both of those things are nice and okay but there's still not enough there to increase his value (still second to last among starting pitchers in my listings). He may stumble across some more wins playing on a contending team but he still strikes out less then 6 per 9 innings, walks too many batters and has a projected ERA of 4.33, this is one where your well advised to go the other way.
James Paxton:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He has pitched very strong in his first three starts this year and two of those have been against contending teams (Detroit & Baltimore). The one minor red flag is that he has gotten lucky on BABIP (.237) but even his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate strong future returns. While his strikeout numbers are modest so far (7.53 per 9), he still projects to have a very strong ERA 2.96.
Paxton's strong start has helped Seattle's push to get to their first playoff spot since 2001 and he's just as capable of doing the same for fantasy owners. Currently, I have him ranked 20th among starting pitchers (not bad for someone available in 62% of leagues.
Michael Pineda:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues. While his value is strongly tied to whether he can stay healthy and not get caught binging on pine tar for his glove (both of which are very big IFs), there is some high reward to go with high risk. While his 1.82 ERA is aided by a .254 BABIP & a 2.5% HR/FB rate, even factoring in a combo of actual ERA, FIP & xFIP, his ERA still projects to be very strong (2.87).
If this holds up, he is capable of helping the Yankees in the scramble for the last wild card spot and do the same for fantasy owners (current rank is 18th). He carries much more risk but could help you win.
Mike Fiers:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues and coming off a VERY strong performance, yeah it was against the Cubs but 14 K's over 6 innings is impressive. While his other start against the Dodgers didn't get the same headlines, he still stepped up just as huge in that start as well.
The question is, what to expect of Fiers going forward? His ability to strike out batters didn't exactly come out of nowhere (he struck out 9.52 per 9 in 2012) and his ability to dominate over at least a couple month stretch isn't new (he pitched very strongly for a couple months in 2012). Both his FIP & xFIP are below 3 this year and if he ever stretched this out over a full season (sub 3 ERA, 200+ K's plus a good chance of getting wins playing on a strong offensive team like Milwaukee) and he could be scary good.
Wei-Yin Chen:
Currently owned in 41% of leagues. He has given up one run or less in 3 of his last four starts. Historically, i've had him projeted as a middle of the pack pitcher.
While his recent performance has given him a modest bump in my rankings (54th to 47th), his ceiling his relatively limited. While he seems likely to stumble into wins playing for a first place Baltimore team, his ERA projects to be almost 4 (3.92) and he's not going to give you too much of an advantage on strikeouts (less than 7 per 9 innings).
All numbers referenced researched on fangraphs.com
All references to league ownership found on Yahoo! Fantasy
Showing posts with label Michael Pineda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Pineda. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Likely Available Waiver Wire Talent: Michael Pineda, Josh Johnson, Matt Harvey, Derek Holand, Kyle Lohse
Michael Pineda (47%)
Definitely one of the wild cards/unknowns as we approach baseball season. Pineda had a promising 2011 before being traded to the Yankees where he has gone on to.....miss the last two seasons.
Assuming Pineda stays healthy (a big if), he should be in line for a regular rotation spot and at least get innings. It's just a matter of what he does with those innings. Personally, I would pass as there are other options out there that haven't missed two whole seasons.
For what its worth, his closest comparison through age 22 (2011 season) is Josh Beckett. Beckett was a solidly above average (though not yet a star) in his age 23-25 seasons with ERA+ of 138, 108 & 118 and starting between 24-29 games. If Pineda stays healthy, he could put up decent numbers and help your team out. Although there are a lot of ifs & coulds to counter with.
Josh Johnson (45%)
During his time with the Marlins, Johnson was a brilliant but often injured pitcher. In 2013 with the Blue Jays, Johnson was an ineffective and often injured pitcher. The Padres were able to get Johnson on a one year flier when his value was at an all-time low.
Even if he his past his peak of 2010 where he dominated the 28 games he started (2.30 ERA, 180 ERA+), his ERA & WHIP numbers should improve solely on playing half of his games at Petco Park and getting out of the AL East.
Again, this is a case of whether he can be effective AND stay healthy. His most similar player through age 29 is John Montefusco. His age 30 season was not very strong. In 22 games (17 starts), he managed an 81 ERA+ in 137 innings but did manage a couple decent seasons afterwards.
With Johnson best case would be about 25-30 starts, an ERA in the mid 3-s and maybe he can back his way into 15 wins if the Padres do indeed turn out to be a better team this year.
Matt Harvey (31%)
If Harvey didn't have Tommy John surgery, he would not be on this list and would likely be an early round pick. While a lot of people are assuming that Harvey would not pitch in 2014, Matt Harvey is not one of those people. Maybe he will get in some games towards the end of the season. Unless you are in a keeper league, it's probably best to pass on Harvey this year but be ready to take him early in 2015.
His most similar player through age 24 is Ed Walsh. At age 25, he had a 1.88 ERA/135 ERA+ (this was back in 1906) and pitched very effectively ( and very often maxing out at 464 innings in 1908) earning him a spot in the hall of fame. Obviously, Harvey (or any other starter) is going to come close to pitching 350 innings (let alone five times but maybe this is an omen that Tommy John surgery is merely a bump in the road and he could end up in Cooperstown one day.
Derek Holland (29%)
If you have Holland on your roster already, you do have a slight disadvantage as he is expected to miss the start of the season due to an off-season knee injury. He'll give you consistent strikeout totals 7-8 per 9 innings but the ERA & WHIP totals aren't much to write home about. One thing (outside his control) that incrementally increases his value is having a loaded Rangers offense behind him should help him back into some additional wins. If you need a boost in strikeouts, he could be a valuable in-season pick up.
His most similar player through age 26 is Joel Pineiro. His age 27 season (2006) was an utter disaster (6.36 era/70 ERA+) though he did have a few decent seasons afterwards. For Holland, i'd be surprised if his performance fell off a cliff and i'd look to see him put up average to slightly above average numbers.
Kyle Lohse (28%)
The Brewers signed Kyle Lohse at the start of the 2013 season with the hopes that it would help their efforts to contend for a playoff spot. While Lohse did his part and had a nice season, having him on their roster helped the Brewers lose "only" 88 games instead of 90+.
Lohse is someone that I literally picked up off the waiver wire a couple minutes earlier as I needed to find a replacement for Jarrod Parker who is off to having Tommy John surgery and will be out for all of 2014. If Lohse puts up a repeat of last year's numbers i'll be happy with it both from a fan & fantasy perspective (currently Lohse is in a reserve role for my fantasy team).
Through age 34, Lohse's most similar player is Esteban Loaiza. While Lohse has started to pitch better as he's gotten into his 30's, Loaiza had one really strong season at age 31 but by the time he was 35, he was struggling to hang on and made two starts for Oakland and five starts for the Dodgers. For Lohse, my expectation is that he'll have another solid season (similar to his 2013) for the upcoming season.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. used found on baseball-reference.com
Definitely one of the wild cards/unknowns as we approach baseball season. Pineda had a promising 2011 before being traded to the Yankees where he has gone on to.....miss the last two seasons.
Assuming Pineda stays healthy (a big if), he should be in line for a regular rotation spot and at least get innings. It's just a matter of what he does with those innings. Personally, I would pass as there are other options out there that haven't missed two whole seasons.
For what its worth, his closest comparison through age 22 (2011 season) is Josh Beckett. Beckett was a solidly above average (though not yet a star) in his age 23-25 seasons with ERA+ of 138, 108 & 118 and starting between 24-29 games. If Pineda stays healthy, he could put up decent numbers and help your team out. Although there are a lot of ifs & coulds to counter with.
Josh Johnson (45%)
During his time with the Marlins, Johnson was a brilliant but often injured pitcher. In 2013 with the Blue Jays, Johnson was an ineffective and often injured pitcher. The Padres were able to get Johnson on a one year flier when his value was at an all-time low.
Even if he his past his peak of 2010 where he dominated the 28 games he started (2.30 ERA, 180 ERA+), his ERA & WHIP numbers should improve solely on playing half of his games at Petco Park and getting out of the AL East.
Again, this is a case of whether he can be effective AND stay healthy. His most similar player through age 29 is John Montefusco. His age 30 season was not very strong. In 22 games (17 starts), he managed an 81 ERA+ in 137 innings but did manage a couple decent seasons afterwards.
With Johnson best case would be about 25-30 starts, an ERA in the mid 3-s and maybe he can back his way into 15 wins if the Padres do indeed turn out to be a better team this year.
Matt Harvey (31%)
If Harvey didn't have Tommy John surgery, he would not be on this list and would likely be an early round pick. While a lot of people are assuming that Harvey would not pitch in 2014, Matt Harvey is not one of those people. Maybe he will get in some games towards the end of the season. Unless you are in a keeper league, it's probably best to pass on Harvey this year but be ready to take him early in 2015.
His most similar player through age 24 is Ed Walsh. At age 25, he had a 1.88 ERA/135 ERA+ (this was back in 1906) and pitched very effectively ( and very often maxing out at 464 innings in 1908) earning him a spot in the hall of fame. Obviously, Harvey (or any other starter) is going to come close to pitching 350 innings (let alone five times but maybe this is an omen that Tommy John surgery is merely a bump in the road and he could end up in Cooperstown one day.
Derek Holland (29%)
If you have Holland on your roster already, you do have a slight disadvantage as he is expected to miss the start of the season due to an off-season knee injury. He'll give you consistent strikeout totals 7-8 per 9 innings but the ERA & WHIP totals aren't much to write home about. One thing (outside his control) that incrementally increases his value is having a loaded Rangers offense behind him should help him back into some additional wins. If you need a boost in strikeouts, he could be a valuable in-season pick up.
His most similar player through age 26 is Joel Pineiro. His age 27 season (2006) was an utter disaster (6.36 era/70 ERA+) though he did have a few decent seasons afterwards. For Holland, i'd be surprised if his performance fell off a cliff and i'd look to see him put up average to slightly above average numbers.
Kyle Lohse (28%)
The Brewers signed Kyle Lohse at the start of the 2013 season with the hopes that it would help their efforts to contend for a playoff spot. While Lohse did his part and had a nice season, having him on their roster helped the Brewers lose "only" 88 games instead of 90+.
Lohse is someone that I literally picked up off the waiver wire a couple minutes earlier as I needed to find a replacement for Jarrod Parker who is off to having Tommy John surgery and will be out for all of 2014. If Lohse puts up a repeat of last year's numbers i'll be happy with it both from a fan & fantasy perspective (currently Lohse is in a reserve role for my fantasy team).
Through age 34, Lohse's most similar player is Esteban Loaiza. While Lohse has started to pitch better as he's gotten into his 30's, Loaiza had one really strong season at age 31 but by the time he was 35, he was struggling to hang on and made two starts for Oakland and five starts for the Dodgers. For Lohse, my expectation is that he'll have another solid season (similar to his 2013) for the upcoming season.
All numbers, comparisons, etc. used found on baseball-reference.com
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