Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He's had a couple of solid starts since being acquired by the Dodgers. Both of those things are nice and okay but there's still not enough there to increase his value (still second to last among starting pitchers in my listings). He may stumble across some more wins playing on a contending team but he still strikes out less then 6 per 9 innings, walks too many batters and has a projected ERA of 4.33, this is one where your well advised to go the other way.
James Paxton:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He has pitched very strong in his first three starts this year and two of those have been against contending teams (Detroit & Baltimore). The one minor red flag is that he has gotten lucky on BABIP (.237) but even his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate strong future returns. While his strikeout numbers are modest so far (7.53 per 9), he still projects to have a very strong ERA 2.96.
Paxton's strong start has helped Seattle's push to get to their first playoff spot since 2001 and he's just as capable of doing the same for fantasy owners. Currently, I have him ranked 20th among starting pitchers (not bad for someone available in 62% of leagues.
Michael Pineda:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues. While his value is strongly tied to whether he can stay healthy and not get caught binging on pine tar for his glove (both of which are very big IFs), there is some high reward to go with high risk. While his 1.82 ERA is aided by a .254 BABIP & a 2.5% HR/FB rate, even factoring in a combo of actual ERA, FIP & xFIP, his ERA still projects to be very strong (2.87).
If this holds up, he is capable of helping the Yankees in the scramble for the last wild card spot and do the same for fantasy owners (current rank is 18th). He carries much more risk but could help you win.
Mike Fiers:
Currently owned in 48% of leagues and coming off a VERY strong performance, yeah it was against the Cubs but 14 K's over 6 innings is impressive. While his other start against the Dodgers didn't get the same headlines, he still stepped up just as huge in that start as well.
The question is, what to expect of Fiers going forward? His ability to strike out batters didn't exactly come out of nowhere (he struck out 9.52 per 9 in 2012) and his ability to dominate over at least a couple month stretch isn't new (he pitched very strongly for a couple months in 2012). Both his FIP & xFIP are below 3 this year and if he ever stretched this out over a full season (sub 3 ERA, 200+ K's plus a good chance of getting wins playing on a strong offensive team like Milwaukee) and he could be scary good.
Wei-Yin Chen:
Currently owned in 41% of leagues. He has given up one run or less in 3 of his last four starts. Historically, i've had him projeted as a middle of the pack pitcher.
While his recent performance has given him a modest bump in my rankings (54th to 47th), his ceiling his relatively limited. While he seems likely to stumble into wins playing for a first place Baltimore team, his ERA projects to be almost 4 (3.92) and he's not going to give you too much of an advantage on strikeouts (less than 7 per 9 innings).
All numbers referenced researched on fangraphs.com
All references to league ownership found on Yahoo! Fantasy
Showing posts with label Roberto Hernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roberto Hernandez. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pickups: 8/6/14
Some players getting picked up today and whether they are worth it:
Colin McHugh:
Currently owned in 25% of leagues. He's coming off a strong start against Toronto where he gave up one run over 6 1/3 innings and his next start comes against the Philadelphia.
Earlier in the season, I was skeptical that McHugh could maintain his strong early season performance citing some initial struggles in limited action over the last couple seasons.
As the season has gone by, it appears that I was very wrong on this assessment. While he has had some good luck (.256 BABIP), his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate that he is a solid starter. Even though playing on the Astros negatively impacts what he can do on the win column, he makes up for it by being able to rack up strikeouts (10.14 per 9 innings this year).
While outside the scope of fantasy, it appears that he's mixed things up a bit this year. He has added 1.1 miles per hour on his fastball but appears to be throwing this less this year and throwing his slider more often.
Either way, it appears that McHugh's deflated win-loss record has turned him into a secret sneaky good value as I have him ranked 25th out of all starting pitchers. It may have taken me forever to come around, but I was definitely wrong about McHugh earlier this season.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. Overall, this hasn't been a great season for Reddick but he has a five game hitting streak.
While he still has 20 homer per season power, i'm not sure how much value he has for standard leagues (for hitters I have him ranked 176th) but he currently is more valuable in daily leagues as long as he keeps his hit streak up.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 49% of leagues. His debut seems to be a pretty close microcosm of what to expect this year (he hit the go ahead home run in the 12th inning last night) but also did not get any hits foretelling a poor batting average for 2014. At the very least, he's worth running in daily leagues as the Cubs are playing at Coors Field
Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 4% of leagues (although his 8 shut out innings against the Nationals last time up have convinced at least 3,000 Yahoo users to pick hi up today). Quite frankly, that's probably 4% too many. While he is getting regular starts (due to playing on a poor team) and has a 3.87 ERA that looks okay-ish on the surface, his FIP, xFIP numbers are both north of 4.5 and he is in 105th in my rankings. For context, I have 106 starting pitchers listed at the moment.
Wei-Yin Chen is number five on the Transaction Trends list. Since he starts today, there has been no change to my outlook on him versus yesterday.
Roenis Elias:
Currently owned in 16% of leagues based off a decent three start stretch (where he only gave up one earned run each and struck out at least six batters). His last start against Baltimore gave him a minor boost in the rankings (going from 52nd to 49th). For standard leagues, he is a possible back-end option depending on pitching availability on match ups but he's not quite in the drop everything and pick him up category.
Denard Span:
Span got a base hit last night which was enough to move his ownership rate up to 55%. While his spot actually dropped from 106th to 107th, he's still worth taking a closer look at.
Colin McHugh:
Currently owned in 25% of leagues. He's coming off a strong start against Toronto where he gave up one run over 6 1/3 innings and his next start comes against the Philadelphia.
Earlier in the season, I was skeptical that McHugh could maintain his strong early season performance citing some initial struggles in limited action over the last couple seasons.
As the season has gone by, it appears that I was very wrong on this assessment. While he has had some good luck (.256 BABIP), his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate that he is a solid starter. Even though playing on the Astros negatively impacts what he can do on the win column, he makes up for it by being able to rack up strikeouts (10.14 per 9 innings this year).
While outside the scope of fantasy, it appears that he's mixed things up a bit this year. He has added 1.1 miles per hour on his fastball but appears to be throwing this less this year and throwing his slider more often.
Either way, it appears that McHugh's deflated win-loss record has turned him into a secret sneaky good value as I have him ranked 25th out of all starting pitchers. It may have taken me forever to come around, but I was definitely wrong about McHugh earlier this season.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. Overall, this hasn't been a great season for Reddick but he has a five game hitting streak.
While he still has 20 homer per season power, i'm not sure how much value he has for standard leagues (for hitters I have him ranked 176th) but he currently is more valuable in daily leagues as long as he keeps his hit streak up.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 49% of leagues. His debut seems to be a pretty close microcosm of what to expect this year (he hit the go ahead home run in the 12th inning last night) but also did not get any hits foretelling a poor batting average for 2014. At the very least, he's worth running in daily leagues as the Cubs are playing at Coors Field
Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 4% of leagues (although his 8 shut out innings against the Nationals last time up have convinced at least 3,000 Yahoo users to pick hi up today). Quite frankly, that's probably 4% too many. While he is getting regular starts (due to playing on a poor team) and has a 3.87 ERA that looks okay-ish on the surface, his FIP, xFIP numbers are both north of 4.5 and he is in 105th in my rankings. For context, I have 106 starting pitchers listed at the moment.
Wei-Yin Chen is number five on the Transaction Trends list. Since he starts today, there has been no change to my outlook on him versus yesterday.
Roenis Elias:
Currently owned in 16% of leagues based off a decent three start stretch (where he only gave up one earned run each and struck out at least six batters). His last start against Baltimore gave him a minor boost in the rankings (going from 52nd to 49th). For standard leagues, he is a possible back-end option depending on pitching availability on match ups but he's not quite in the drop everything and pick him up category.
Denard Span:
Span got a base hit last night which was enough to move his ownership rate up to 55%. While his spot actually dropped from 106th to 107th, he's still worth taking a closer look at.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Meet the Unsigned Free Agents: Shaun Marcum, Jeff Karstens, Eric O'Flaherty, Roberto Hernandez
Shaun Marcum:
A player that I am familiar with due to his two year stint with the Brewers. Marcum came to the Brewers in a trade during the 2010 off season for Brett Lawrie as they were pushing to make the post-season (which eventually resulted in a NLCS trip).
While he did struggle in the post-season, I think he was trying to pitch his way through an injury as his pitches didn't have the same kick to them. Still, I do have positive memories of him pitching for the Brewers as he did pitch well in the 54 starts he had over the last two years.
His 2013 season with the Mets was a whole different story as he had further injury issues and had his worst season over the 14 games where he was healthy. I think he can get past his struggles and would be a good buy-low option for someone looking to fill out the back end of their starting rotation.
The most similar player to him through age 31 was Bob Walk. After turning 31, he had plenty of innings left in the tank (even if they weren't that great) as he pitched at least 115 innings in his age 32-36 seasons though Walk's career ending less than ceremoniously with him leading the league in earned runs allowed in 1993.
Jeff Karstens:
Another player that is coming off an injury shortened season. While Karstens had a better season than Marcum, overall career performance indicates that he doesn't have as much upside as Marcum. I think he'll find his way back in the bigs but he'll probably get a minor league deal and successfully compete for a #4 or #5 starter job during spring training. You could do better but you could also do worse.
Also, he is still young and maybe he is a late bloomer, it wouldn't be unprecedented. His most similar player through age 29 is Mike Scott. Coming out of his age 29 season he was just another below average pitcher that somehow kept getting work but little did anyone know he was two years away from leading the league in Strikeouts, ERA+, WHIP & Hits per Nine innings. While the odds are highly stacked against Karstens ever being in the Cy Young award discussion, he may be a good value for whoever signs him.
Eric O'Flaherty:
Even with the knowledge that the performance of relief pitchers can be very fickle and subject to small sample size, i'm pretty surprised that O'Flaherty hasn't been picked up. Before doing research on this posting, I didn't quite realize how consistently good he has been (even if 2013 was shortened by injury). He's had an ERA+ of at least 136 over the last five seasons and was virtually uninhabitable in 2011 & 2012. Depending on where he ends up, he could be one of those players that picks up a closing gig and help fantasy owners everywhere get an advantage in the saves category.
His most similar pitcher through age 28 was Craig Lefferts which seems a bit odd as while Lefferts had a nice start to his career, the numbers indicate he wasn't really as dominant as O'Flaherty was. Either way, he still had 8 years left in the tank after his age 28 season.
Roberto Hernandez:
The player formerly known as Fausto Carmona. If picked up anywhere, likely to be on a minor league deal. He had one really good season in 2007 and since then has been a very below average pitcher.
His career is very likely close to being done barring an out of nowhere strong season (he's been below replacement level the last three years and five out of the last six. His most similar player through age 32 is John Thomson who made two starts after age 32 (for the 2007 Royals) before his career came to an end.
A player that I am familiar with due to his two year stint with the Brewers. Marcum came to the Brewers in a trade during the 2010 off season for Brett Lawrie as they were pushing to make the post-season (which eventually resulted in a NLCS trip).
While he did struggle in the post-season, I think he was trying to pitch his way through an injury as his pitches didn't have the same kick to them. Still, I do have positive memories of him pitching for the Brewers as he did pitch well in the 54 starts he had over the last two years.
His 2013 season with the Mets was a whole different story as he had further injury issues and had his worst season over the 14 games where he was healthy. I think he can get past his struggles and would be a good buy-low option for someone looking to fill out the back end of their starting rotation.
The most similar player to him through age 31 was Bob Walk. After turning 31, he had plenty of innings left in the tank (even if they weren't that great) as he pitched at least 115 innings in his age 32-36 seasons though Walk's career ending less than ceremoniously with him leading the league in earned runs allowed in 1993.
Jeff Karstens:
Another player that is coming off an injury shortened season. While Karstens had a better season than Marcum, overall career performance indicates that he doesn't have as much upside as Marcum. I think he'll find his way back in the bigs but he'll probably get a minor league deal and successfully compete for a #4 or #5 starter job during spring training. You could do better but you could also do worse.
Also, he is still young and maybe he is a late bloomer, it wouldn't be unprecedented. His most similar player through age 29 is Mike Scott. Coming out of his age 29 season he was just another below average pitcher that somehow kept getting work but little did anyone know he was two years away from leading the league in Strikeouts, ERA+, WHIP & Hits per Nine innings. While the odds are highly stacked against Karstens ever being in the Cy Young award discussion, he may be a good value for whoever signs him.
Eric O'Flaherty:
Even with the knowledge that the performance of relief pitchers can be very fickle and subject to small sample size, i'm pretty surprised that O'Flaherty hasn't been picked up. Before doing research on this posting, I didn't quite realize how consistently good he has been (even if 2013 was shortened by injury). He's had an ERA+ of at least 136 over the last five seasons and was virtually uninhabitable in 2011 & 2012. Depending on where he ends up, he could be one of those players that picks up a closing gig and help fantasy owners everywhere get an advantage in the saves category.
His most similar pitcher through age 28 was Craig Lefferts which seems a bit odd as while Lefferts had a nice start to his career, the numbers indicate he wasn't really as dominant as O'Flaherty was. Either way, he still had 8 years left in the tank after his age 28 season.
Roberto Hernandez:
The player formerly known as Fausto Carmona. If picked up anywhere, likely to be on a minor league deal. He had one really good season in 2007 and since then has been a very below average pitcher.
His career is very likely close to being done barring an out of nowhere strong season (he's been below replacement level the last three years and five out of the last six. His most similar player through age 32 is John Thomson who made two starts after age 32 (for the 2007 Royals) before his career came to an end.
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