7/23/14 Zeplen Dean Rankings

I've gone through and done the most recent Zeplen Dean Rankings for batters. Data for this is through yesterday's games (7/22/14).

One tweak I made was to have the Zeplen Dean Score be adjusted to 100 for the #1 player.

For example, the score (if done by prior standards last week) was 83.3 for the #1 player on the list (Mike Trout). I got this by adding projected runs, home runs, rbi & stolen bases and multiplied this by their projected batting average. The line in this example is as follows:

.312/108 R/33 HR/103 RBI/24 SB

I then took 1.20048 (100 divided by 83.3) and used this to multiply everyone else's scores.

The criteria to get on this list is at least 160 plate appearances in 2014 which currently gives us 301 players.

The Current Top 10 List Is As Follows:

1-Mike Trout
2-Jose Abreu
3-Miguel Cabrera
4-Ryan Braun
5-Victor Martinez
6-Nelson Cruz
7-Torii Hunter
8-David Ortiz
9-Billy Hamilton
10-Carlos Gonzalez

Note: Troy Tulowitzki & Edwin Encarnacion would be on the top 10 list if they were not currently on the disabled list.

The Bottom 10 List is as Follows:

292-Ed Lucas
293-Luis Valbuena
294-Andrew Romine
295-Tyler Flowers
296-Nick Punto
297-A.J. Ellis
298-Ruben Tejada
299-Adeiny Hechavarria
300-Stefen Romero
301-Jose Molina

The average Zeplen Dean Score in this sample is 54.7, a score that currently belongs to Justin Ruggiano. The projected line that got him this ranking is as follows:

.249/77 R/19 HR/75 RBI/13 SB

Replacement level (120th place in a 12 team fantasy league with 10 active offense spots is 57.0 and belongs to Lorenzo Cain. Since he's injury prone and does not get consistent playing time, this may not be the best example but his projected line is as follows:

.267/68 R/8 HR/77 RBI/25 SB

Other Zeplen Dean Score Thresholds are as follows:

90

Players Above this Mark: 5
Player Closest to this Total Without Going Below: Ryan Braun
Projected Line: .305/97 R/ 28 HR/ 107 RBI/ 20 SB

80

Players at or above this total: 15
Player Exactly at this total: Albert Pujols
Projected Line: .292/90 R/31 HR/99 RBI/7 SB

70

Players at or above this total: 39
Player at this total: Jose Bautista
Projected Line: .249/ 99 R/34 HR/94 RBI/ 7 SB

60

Players at or above this total: 94
Player at this total: Curtis Granderson
Projected Line: .238/89 R/28 HR/ 79 RBI/14 SB

50

Players at or above this total: 179
Player closest to this total (50.1) without being below: Rickie Weeks
Projected Line: .238/ 84 R/16 HR/ 63 RBI/ 12 SB

40

Players at or above this total: 266
Player closest to this total without being below (40.3) Andrleton Simmons
Projected Line: .249/61 R/11 HR/57 RBI/ 5 SB

30

Players at or above this total: 297
Player closest to this total without being below (30.7) Ruben Tejada
Projected Line: .238/57 R/ 3 HR/ 44 RBI/ 4 SB

20
Players at or above this total: Everyone
Player closest to this total without being below (and leading candidate in the Yuni award for worst offensive player in the MLB: Jose Molina (22.4)

If he somehow got 650 plate appearances his line would look like this:

.219/31 R/ 5 HR/ 40 RBI/ 9 SB

Hitting Player Rankings

So, I went through yet another modification in an effort to rank players. One step forward taken here was that I was able to get the data combined faster and for more players in this go-round. I went into fangraphs.com and pulled data for all players with at least 162 plate appearances this year (290) players and also got 5 year data (2010-2014) for the same players.

I've mentioned the Zeplen Dean score but haven't defined how I get to this number. Currently, I have this data structured to project out to 650 plate appearances for all players so in essence it's almost a value per at bat ranking. While this is currently projected out just for fantasy categories i'm also looking into eventually doing a real value ranking which places higher emphasis on OPS & WAR.

I add the projected Run, Home Run, RBI & Stolen Base Totals and multiply this by batting average.

With That out of the Way The Top 10 Rankings area as follows:

1-Mike Trout
2-Miguel Cabrera
3-Jose Abreu
4-Troy Tulowitzki
5-Victor Martinez
6-Ryan Braun
7-Carlos Gonzalez
8-Nelson Cruz
9-Billy Hamilton
10-Albert Pujols

* Edwin Encarnacion was the person ranked 10th, but he was removed from this list due to currently being on the disabled list.

No surprise for the #1 & #2 spots but the rest of the rankings are up for debate. The biggest surprise I found while doing this list is that Billy Hamilton came in at #9. Hamilton was expected to provide a boost in stolen bases (which he has, he projects out to 78 stolen bases), the surprising thing here is that he projects to be at least a decent hitter for fantasy categories (.291/9 HR/68 RBI).

The only players with a Zeplen Dean score above 80 were Trout, Cabrera & Abreu. In a 12 team league with 10 starting offensive players (8 position starters plus two utility players) replacement level would be the player ranked 120th overall. In this version, that honor belongs to Corey Hart who has a Zeplen Dean Score of 47.5.

While his surface numbers haven't been pretty, he has been injured and also has a very low BABIP (.246). Factoring this out, the Zeplen Dean system thinks he could hit .273 with 24 HR/75 RBI over a full season.

In reviewing all the players on this list, the average Zeplen Dean Score is 46 and the standard deviation is 11.5

This Breaks things out to the following tiers

Tier 1: >3 Standard Deviations Above Average >80.5

Example: Mike Trout

Tier 2: 3 Standard Deviations Above Average 80.5

Example: Troy Tulowitzki

Tier 3: 2 Standard Deviations Above Average 69

Example: Adrian Beltre

Tier 4: 1 Standard Deviation Above Average 57.5

Example: Justin Morneau

Tier 5: The Most Average Hitter in This Sample 46

Dexter Fowler

Tier 6: One Standard Deviation Below Average 34.5

Example: Will Venable

Tier 7: Two Standard Deviations Below Average 23

Adeiny Hechavarria

Since we point out the top 10 players on the list, we also need balance in the universe. With that in mind, this week's bottom 10 is:

10-Darwin Barney
9-Danny Espinosa
8-Nick Punto
7-Ed Lucas
6-Luis Valbuena
5-Travis d'Arnaud
4-Tyler Flowers
3-Ruben Tejada
2-Adeiny Hechavarria
1-Jose Molina

The Zeplen Dean Rankings: Shortstop

Now on to our preliminary shortstop rankings. I did a something a little different in how the players are ranked and sorted.

The average Zeplen Dean score on the shortstops I have in the database so far is 46.56 and the standard deviation is 11.6. I split up the tiered groupings based on being above average, below average and within the standard deviations.

Tier 1 (2 Standard Deviations Above Average) >69.76

1-Troy Tulowitzki
2-Hanley Ramirez

As expected, Tulowitzki had the highest score but the gap between him and Ramirez was smaller than expected. Tulowitzki has a higher career BABIP than normal while Ramirez has a much lower BABIP, after factoring these out their expected batting averages are pretty close. While Ramirez has a sizable lead in stolen bases, Tulowitzki has enough of an edge in the last three categories (Runs, Home Runs & RBIs) to keep his expected spot.

Tier 2 (1 Standard Deviation Above Average) >58.16

Nobody, the next best score is 57.72

Tier 3 (Within Standard Deviation but Above Average)

3-Jose Reyes
4-Dee Gordon
5-Alexei Ramirez
6-Asdrubal Cabrera
7-Starlin Castro

I was a bit surprised that Dee Gordon was ranked #4. When adjusting for BABIP his projected average wasn't an albatross (.275) and the projection has him stealing 72 bases which boosted his value.

Tier 4 (Within Standard Deviation but Below Average)

8-Jean Segura
9-Jimmy Rollins
10-Jhonny Peralta
11-Elvis Andrus
12-Ian Desmond
13-Alcides Escobar
14-Jed Lowrie
15-Brandon Crawford
16-Jordy Mercer

This is somewhat misleading as everyone from Segura down to Ian Desmond was within .46 points of each other and .54 of being in Tier 3 The order of these shortstops is likely to shuffle a lot as the season goes on. Having Tulowitzki and  Ramirez ahead of the pack pushed more shortstops below average than above.

Tier 5 (One Standard Deviation Below Average)

17-Everth Cabrera
18-JJ Hardy
19-Xander Bogarets
20-Andrelton Simmons

The race to the bottom so far is pretty close (.17) point difference. I was surprised Simmons had the lowest rating but does make more sense as his value rests primarily with the glove. If this was based on actual real life value, he would likely have a better ranking.

Zeplen Dean Projection System: Second Base

Since we're transitioning from First Base to Second Vase, we are also transitioning over to lower overall scores on the Zeplen Dean system (no second basemen was over 60, though two of them were at 59). The rankings within this beta system are as follows.

One thing that did surprise me is how closely together players were in the rankings. As the season progresses, my estimate is that there is likely to be more volatility in the rankings here versus the other positions that have been covered.

The Top Tier, Very Similar In Value

1-Robinson Cano (59.83)
2-Ian Kinsler (59.42)

The Next Best Options (54-55)

3-Anthony Rendon
4-Chase Utley
5-Scooter Gennett
6-Jose Altuve

Even as a Brewers fan, I think this formula over-values Scooter Gennett. He has had BABIPs above .350 in both seasons which keeps his projected batting average high. With less than 500 plate appearances under his belt, its too early to tell if he's one of those players who consistently has a higher than average BABIP or if he's gotten fortunate two seasons in a row. It also assumes plate appearances are equal (650) which basically doesn't put into consideration that he gets benched in favor of Rickie Weeks whenever the Brewers opponent start against a left-handed pitcher. With this platoon, I think Gennett has more value in daily based leagues than standard fantasy leagues.

Decent Options but A Not as Good (47-51)

7-Brian Dozier
8-Daniel Murphy
9-Neil Walker
10-Matt Carpenter
11-Howie Kendrick
12-Omar Infante
13-Dustin Pedroia

Even though Brian Dozier is having a very good year in the power and speed categories, he gets weighed down as he had a lesser track record in the power department prior to this year and his projected batting average is very pedestrian (.252)

You Can Do Better (40-45)

14-Brian Roberts
15-Brandon Phillips
16-DJ LaMahieu
17-Ben Zobrist
18- Aaron Hill

Even at a Thin Position, Better Options Await (35-39)

19-Gordan Beckham
20-Brad Miller

Run the Other Direction (<30)

21-Logan Forsythe
22-Luis Valbuena
23-Danny Espinosa

Even though Forsythe is a trendy pick up right now and Valbuena is having a good season (fueled by BABIP), starting them is likely a risky proposition. Even though Espinosa will provide some home runs and stolen bases, the Zeplen Dean system also projects him to struggle to stay above the Mendoza Line with a projected batting average of .202.

Zeplen Dean Projections: First Base

So, i've managed to get through the rankings for the First Basemen in the BETA version of the Zeplen Dean Projection System. A few observations

--One that i'm not too surprised on is that the ratings are higher for first basemen due to it being a more offense oriented position

--For Catchers, nobody had a rating score above 60. In comparison, 8 first basemen had a score above 60

--I haven't quite figured out how to mix season and career totals for players such as Jose Abreu who had no prior MLB experience to this season. Once I get this figured out, I still think he has a strong total but not sure he maintains his number one ranking.

With these disclaimers out of the way, my yet to be comprehensive rankings for future value are as follows


The Best:

1-Jose Abreu (81.49)

Elite: >70

2-Albert Pujols
3-Victor Martinez

Career numbers may be factoring too much in the beta version, this helps Pujols here (and Teixeira at #4) and was the inverse of what moved Yadier Molina much further expected in the beta version of the Zeplen Dean System.

Note: Miguel Cabrera is going to be in the third basemen rankings, so far i'm keeping it to one position per player

Not quite Elite but still solid (60-69)

4-Mark Teixeira
5-Edwin Encarnacion
6-Paul Goldschmidt
7-C.J. Cron
8-Justin Morneau

Same problem with Abreu applies to Cron, I think he's a solid player but probably over-rated in this system.

Decent but not Great Options (50-59)

9-Brandon Moss
10-Freddie Freeman
11-Adam LaRoche
12-Chris Davis
13-Matt Adams
14-Ryan Howard
15-Joey Votto
16-Adrian Gonzalez
17-Anthony Rizzo
18-Mark Reynolds

I'm a bit surprised that Votto was ranked this low but it appears he's dragged down from lower power numbers so far in 2014

Could Definitely Do Better (40-49)

19-Michael Morse
20-Steve Pearce
21-Mike Napoli
22-Joe Mauer
23-James Loney
24-Garrett Jones
25-Billy Butler
26-Carlos Santana
27-Adam Dun
28-Eric Hosmer

Pick Anyone else off the Wire <40

29- Nick Swisher

Introducing the Zeplen Dean System: Catchers

Over the last several months, I have been writing about the going on's of the baseball season which has veered into players who are getting picked up in fantasy and why some players were better picks than others.

I'm in the early stages of looking at the numbers and using this to quantify which players are better than others. Slowly but surely, i'm building up a player database and using elements combining year to date with career factors with factors such as BABIP, Walk Rate, Runs per Plate Appearance, Home Runs per Plate appearance, etc. in these efforts. which produces a Raw Score w

The First position i've worked on is Catchers and the criteria I used for this list (which will build as the year progresses I realize this process is close from complete)

-75 or more hits

-5 or more home runs

-plus additional players that are getting added frequently.

For Catchers, there are only 11 that qualify under these so far (again I realize far from comprehensive) and broken down into the following tiers:

The Top Choice

1-Buster Posey (58.32)

The Next Best Options (>50)

2-Devin Mesoraco

3-Jonathan Lucroy

4-Miguel Montero

5-Brian McCann

Okay Options (45-49)

6-Salvador Perez

7-Yan Gomes

Stretching It (41-45)

8-Dioner Navarro

9-Wilson Ramos

10-Yadier Molina

You Can Definitely Do Better (<40)

11-Jason Castro

For the most part, this breakdown makes logical sense with a couple of exceptions.

Devin Mesoraco is ranked higher (#2) than I expected. I equalized the data to 650 plate appearances and the formula I have projects 37 home runs for him. This is telling me that I'm probably putting too much emphasis on current season data.

The other shocker is that Yadier Molina was ranked very low (#10 out of 11). In looking at the details, he got weighted down by career ISO which is one of the factors I used but wasn't counter weighed by the fact that he has developed more power over the last few seasons than he had from 2004-2010. 

Takeaways:

--Currently I appear to be overemphasizing this season's data especially as it pertains to someone with a limited sample size of career plate apperances

--I also think I may need to emphasize factors such as ISO over a shorter period (i.e. 3 years) as this is impacting the rankings of players such as Yadier Molina that have been around for a decade and have improved/evolved as hitters during this time frame.