7/23/14 Zeplen Dean Rankings

I've gone through and done the most recent Zeplen Dean Rankings for batters. Data for this is through yesterday's games (7/22/14).

One tweak I made was to have the Zeplen Dean Score be adjusted to 100 for the #1 player.

For example, the score (if done by prior standards last week) was 83.3 for the #1 player on the list (Mike Trout). I got this by adding projected runs, home runs, rbi & stolen bases and multiplied this by their projected batting average. The line in this example is as follows:

.312/108 R/33 HR/103 RBI/24 SB

I then took 1.20048 (100 divided by 83.3) and used this to multiply everyone else's scores.

The criteria to get on this list is at least 160 plate appearances in 2014 which currently gives us 301 players.

The Current Top 10 List Is As Follows:

1-Mike Trout
2-Jose Abreu
3-Miguel Cabrera
4-Ryan Braun
5-Victor Martinez
6-Nelson Cruz
7-Torii Hunter
8-David Ortiz
9-Billy Hamilton
10-Carlos Gonzalez

Note: Troy Tulowitzki & Edwin Encarnacion would be on the top 10 list if they were not currently on the disabled list.

The Bottom 10 List is as Follows:

292-Ed Lucas
293-Luis Valbuena
294-Andrew Romine
295-Tyler Flowers
296-Nick Punto
297-A.J. Ellis
298-Ruben Tejada
299-Adeiny Hechavarria
300-Stefen Romero
301-Jose Molina

The average Zeplen Dean Score in this sample is 54.7, a score that currently belongs to Justin Ruggiano. The projected line that got him this ranking is as follows:

.249/77 R/19 HR/75 RBI/13 SB

Replacement level (120th place in a 12 team fantasy league with 10 active offense spots is 57.0 and belongs to Lorenzo Cain. Since he's injury prone and does not get consistent playing time, this may not be the best example but his projected line is as follows:

.267/68 R/8 HR/77 RBI/25 SB

Other Zeplen Dean Score Thresholds are as follows:

90

Players Above this Mark: 5
Player Closest to this Total Without Going Below: Ryan Braun
Projected Line: .305/97 R/ 28 HR/ 107 RBI/ 20 SB

80

Players at or above this total: 15
Player Exactly at this total: Albert Pujols
Projected Line: .292/90 R/31 HR/99 RBI/7 SB

70

Players at or above this total: 39
Player at this total: Jose Bautista
Projected Line: .249/ 99 R/34 HR/94 RBI/ 7 SB

60

Players at or above this total: 94
Player at this total: Curtis Granderson
Projected Line: .238/89 R/28 HR/ 79 RBI/14 SB

50

Players at or above this total: 179
Player closest to this total (50.1) without being below: Rickie Weeks
Projected Line: .238/ 84 R/16 HR/ 63 RBI/ 12 SB

40

Players at or above this total: 266
Player closest to this total without being below (40.3) Andrleton Simmons
Projected Line: .249/61 R/11 HR/57 RBI/ 5 SB

30

Players at or above this total: 297
Player closest to this total without being below (30.7) Ruben Tejada
Projected Line: .238/57 R/ 3 HR/ 44 RBI/ 4 SB

20
Players at or above this total: Everyone
Player closest to this total without being below (and leading candidate in the Yuni award for worst offensive player in the MLB: Jose Molina (22.4)

If he somehow got 650 plate appearances his line would look like this:

.219/31 R/ 5 HR/ 40 RBI/ 9 SB

Hitting Player Rankings

So, I went through yet another modification in an effort to rank players. One step forward taken here was that I was able to get the data combined faster and for more players in this go-round. I went into fangraphs.com and pulled data for all players with at least 162 plate appearances this year (290) players and also got 5 year data (2010-2014) for the same players.

I've mentioned the Zeplen Dean score but haven't defined how I get to this number. Currently, I have this data structured to project out to 650 plate appearances for all players so in essence it's almost a value per at bat ranking. While this is currently projected out just for fantasy categories i'm also looking into eventually doing a real value ranking which places higher emphasis on OPS & WAR.

I add the projected Run, Home Run, RBI & Stolen Base Totals and multiply this by batting average.

With That out of the Way The Top 10 Rankings area as follows:

1-Mike Trout
2-Miguel Cabrera
3-Jose Abreu
4-Troy Tulowitzki
5-Victor Martinez
6-Ryan Braun
7-Carlos Gonzalez
8-Nelson Cruz
9-Billy Hamilton
10-Albert Pujols

* Edwin Encarnacion was the person ranked 10th, but he was removed from this list due to currently being on the disabled list.

No surprise for the #1 & #2 spots but the rest of the rankings are up for debate. The biggest surprise I found while doing this list is that Billy Hamilton came in at #9. Hamilton was expected to provide a boost in stolen bases (which he has, he projects out to 78 stolen bases), the surprising thing here is that he projects to be at least a decent hitter for fantasy categories (.291/9 HR/68 RBI).

The only players with a Zeplen Dean score above 80 were Trout, Cabrera & Abreu. In a 12 team league with 10 starting offensive players (8 position starters plus two utility players) replacement level would be the player ranked 120th overall. In this version, that honor belongs to Corey Hart who has a Zeplen Dean Score of 47.5.

While his surface numbers haven't been pretty, he has been injured and also has a very low BABIP (.246). Factoring this out, the Zeplen Dean system thinks he could hit .273 with 24 HR/75 RBI over a full season.

In reviewing all the players on this list, the average Zeplen Dean Score is 46 and the standard deviation is 11.5

This Breaks things out to the following tiers

Tier 1: >3 Standard Deviations Above Average >80.5

Example: Mike Trout

Tier 2: 3 Standard Deviations Above Average 80.5

Example: Troy Tulowitzki

Tier 3: 2 Standard Deviations Above Average 69

Example: Adrian Beltre

Tier 4: 1 Standard Deviation Above Average 57.5

Example: Justin Morneau

Tier 5: The Most Average Hitter in This Sample 46

Dexter Fowler

Tier 6: One Standard Deviation Below Average 34.5

Example: Will Venable

Tier 7: Two Standard Deviations Below Average 23

Adeiny Hechavarria

Since we point out the top 10 players on the list, we also need balance in the universe. With that in mind, this week's bottom 10 is:

10-Darwin Barney
9-Danny Espinosa
8-Nick Punto
7-Ed Lucas
6-Luis Valbuena
5-Travis d'Arnaud
4-Tyler Flowers
3-Ruben Tejada
2-Adeiny Hechavarria
1-Jose Molina