King Of The Waiver Wire Hill: 7/30

Trying (yet) another new thing. I looked at the most picked up hitters in Yahoo! fantasy this morning and pitted the top eight against each other to project which one has the most projected value.

8) Conor Gillaspie

Currently owned in 19% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues with a 1% uptick over yesterday. He has 10 hits over the last five games which has raised his batting average up to .327. His strong batting average to date has been driven by a .373 BABIP which does not seem to show any indication of slowing down soon (though it is bound to sooner rather than later.

While I think he's capable of at least running into some more home runs, once the BABIP comes down to earth, so will his value. Over 650 PA, his line would look something like:

.263/16 HR/63 RBI/0 SB/69 R

7) Emilio Bonifacio

Currently owned in 31% of leagues with a 2% increase from yesterday. He had plenty of opportunity in yesterday's 16-inning marathon game against the Rockies and he took full advantage going 4-7 scoring two runs, driving in 2 runs and even hitting a home run. Since the Cubs are not even close to contention and Bonifacio is not amongst the rising stars on the farm, the news indicates that he could get traded soon. While that may be good for him as he'd get a chance to play for a winner, this could reduce his value as it is possible his playing time could go down depending on where he gets traded to.

His 650 PA projection is:

.278/3 HR/38 RBI/34 SB/79 R

6) Danny Santana

Currently owned in 32% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. The BABIP fueled good times continued as he went 2 for 5 to move his batting average to .318. The player info data in yahoo included the line of "all Santanta does is find ways to contribute offensively" sounds a lot like the description of "he just wins games" mantra that we heard in the middle of Tebow-mania. He's made this last longer than I thought it would. Maybe you gamble to see if he keeps the hot streak going, but this can't last forever.

Projection:

.239/11 HR/71 RBI/92 R/21 SB

5) Yangervis Solarte

Currently owned in 16% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. Since he moved from the Yankees (awesome hitters park) to Petco Field (the exact opposite of that), it seemed a given that his offensive numbers would take a tumble. Instead, he's hit two homers in the last three games, and scoring 2 of 3 runs in last night's victory over the Cardinals (thank you). Over a full season, I think he would hit:

Also, he could be in for a BABIP related rebound (currently at .269) so it is possible his .257 batting average could move into the .280's.

.287/17 HR/78 RBI/0 SB/70 R

4) Josh Harrison

Currently owned in 56% of leagues, a 12% increase from yesterday. It's safe to say that Josh Harrison is ON FIRE right now. He's homered in three consecutive games which has played a contributing role to helping the Giants in their current free-fall while also making things a bit nerve racking as a Brewers fan (Pirates are currently 1 game out). His projection is:

.275/16 HR/63 RBI/22 SB/79 R

3) Chris Carter

Despite going 0 for 3 last night, Carter saw his ownership rate increase to 40% today.Chris Carter doesn't always come close to hitting the ball, but when he does it goes a long, long way. His batting average is always going to be terrible, but at .212 is more terrible than I think it will be going forward due to his BABIP. Going, forward I think he's closer to a .240 hitter with the potential to hit 35-40 homers depending on playing time. His 650 PA projection is as follows:

.241/37 HR/95 RBI/79 R/2 SB

2) Lucas Duda

Currently owned in 53% of leagues with a 13% increase over yesterday. His bat has been scorching hot over the last week (especially last weekend against the Brewers where his bat was the difference between a series split and the Mets getting swept). I've been a proponent of Duda's value for awhile and everyone else seems to be catching on. He appears to have successfully overcome the fact that he plays on the Mets to become a very good player. His projected 650 PA line is as follows:

.264/25 HR/92 RBI/4 SB/75 RBI

Today's (very surprising) waiver wire king of the hill is:

1) J.P. Arencibia

Currently, owned in 3% of leagues, a 1% increase over yesterday. It is safe to say that Arencibia had a very successful day yesterday as he hit 2 home runs and drove in seven runs yesterday.

Considering that his value going into today was so low and the fact that he was in the majors to begin with had more to do with the reality that pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Rangers this year versus something resembling a track record of success (55 wRC+ in 497 plate apperances for Toronto last year).

While he is an albatross on the batting average side, he's not the .183 hitter currently reflected in his stats. He has a .186 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .245. Adjusting for this, he's closer to a .241 hitter.

He has hit home runs at a decent clip this year (6 in 112 plate appearances) and this appears to be reflective of his home-run hitting ability (15.4% HR/FB rate this year versus 15.2% of in his career).

Based on what he has done in the past, he appears to be more than capable of hitting over 30 home runs over a full season and the number of runs he's driven per at bat both this year and in his career indicate that in the right context/structure/luck, etc. he could drive in north of 100 runs per year.

However, Arencibia's skill set while useful to Fantasy players does not transfer itself well to being a full-time starter. He's drawn walks in a measly 3.6% of his plate appearances. While his .241 batting average would be tolerable to teams if he was more selective at the plate, this projection would also give him a cringe-worthy OBP of .277. Paired with some sub-par defense, he's probably not going to be a full-time starter ever.

With that being said, if you do need extra power (and can stomach a .241 batting average), Arencibia could give you a power boost as he gets regular playing time due to the Rangers injury epidemic.


Will Arencibia defend his crown next time? You'll have to tune in to find out.

All information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo Fantasy!

Outfielder Rankings: 7/28

So i'm going to experiment with this by reviewing things on a position by position level, ranking the top 20 players and then highlighting some players that are very available (defined as less than 50% ownership inYahoo! leagues. The top 20 list for outfielders is as follows. For context, 129 players were in this section of outfield rankings

1-Mike Trout
2-Nelson Cruz
3-Ryan Braun
4-Michael Brantley
5-Andrew McCutchen
6-Giancarlo Stanton
7-Jose Bautista
8-Carlos Gomez
9-Adam Jones
10-Brandon Moss
11-Torii Hunter
12-Billy Hamilton
13-Melky Cabrera
14-Yoenis Cespedes
15-Hunter Pence
16-Justin Upton
17-Jacoby Ellsbury
18-Jayson Werth
19-Charlie Blackmon
20-Matt Holliday

Some players of interest that are likely available (owned in less than 50 % of Yahoo! Leagues)

Domonic Brown (38%)

Score (with 100 being #1 ranking) 49
Ranking: 67 (out of 129)

Last year, Brown at least provided some power as he did hit 27 home runs. 2014 has been a different case as he has struggled (then again who hasn't on the Phillies). Granted, he has had some bad luck (.266 BABIP versus .275 career) and a 8% HR/FB rate (versus 13.3% career) but even with those two pieces factored in, there's just not that much there. Over a full-season (650 plate appearances) my projection is that he would hit 21 home runs but that would come with a .239 batting average. With about 90 starting outfield slots available in the bigs, he's barely cutting it as a starter in real life (and probably only there due to the quality of the team he is playing on) let alone anyone's fantasy team.

Verdict: Pass

Denard Span (35%)

Score: 54
Ranking: 46

While Span does have a slightly lower ownership rate, I think that he is a slightly better option (though still very borderline for an outfielder). The good aspects are that he will steal you some bases and score some runs (even if the Nationals offense can be a bit cold), the negative is that if you need power, he's not your guy. Over a full season I could see the following line

.288/ 5 HR/ 38 RBI 24 SB 88 R

Verdict: Buy (If you need some stolen bases but are okay on power numbers)

Emilio Bonifacio (30%)

Score: 44
Rank: 85

Prior to yesterday's 0-4 performance against the Cardinals, Bonifacio was ona nice five game hitting streak. With that being said, his value is extremely limited as he can help you with stolen bases but is likely to give you nominal contributions in the other four categories.

Verdict: Pass

Danny Santana (29%)

Score: 40
Rank: 91

His ownership rates continue to creep up (+2% since yesterday) as he has hits in six of his last seven games. As long as he gets picked up, it also warrants to keep pointing out that he is being fueled by a .394 BABIP. Bottom line, don't be surprised when he starts struggling either later this year or next year. My projection for him over 650 PA is:

.240/11 HR/64 RBI/76 R/22 SB

There are some stolen bases in play, maybe the occasional home run but once his BABIP regresses back to normal he may struggle to even get in the lineup every day.

Verdict: Pass

Josh Reddick (24%)

Score: 42
Rank: 88

Even with Reddick struggling this year, I did sort of expect his ranking to be a bit higher. His HR/FB ratio has been lower than his career totals which would put his expected home runs this year at 7 instead of 5. Even at a .245 batting average, one red flag I see is that his BABIP .291 is actually higher than his career total of .273.

Over a full season, his expected line would be

.240/21 HR/76 RBI/6 SB/78 R

Basically, the AL equivalent to Domonic Brown. He may give you 20 home runs if things break right but getting him to provide anything else may be a bit much to ask for.

Verdict: Pass

All research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy

Likely Available Waiver Wire Talent: Anthony Rendon, Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Kolten Wong, Emilio Bonifacio

Anthony Rendon (44% Ownership)

Rendon was the #6 overall pick in the 2011 draft and got his first taste of major league action in 2013. During his 98 games, he showed he can handle major league pitching but didn't put up superstar numbers .265/.329/.396 99 OPS+ 7 hrs.

He's one of those players that is capable of doing more. He was listed as a top 30 prospect in 2012 & 2013 and only played in 79 minor league games before going to the bigs. He basically crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .939 OPS.

Part of this seems to be helped by a discerning eye as he drew 55 walks in 326 minor league plate appearances. While I think his OBP is going to be strong, i'm not sure he's necessarily going to help owners from the batting average side. I do think he will hit for some more power in 2014 and approach the 15 home run mark.

Kelly Johnson (43% Ownership)

If Johnson is going to provide value, it's going to be from the home run side. It seems like its between Kelly Johnson & Brian Roberts in who's going to fill up the second base spot and do their best to replace Robinson Cano so it would be helpful to monitor how that competition goes in spring training.

Assuming Johnson gets a regular stream of plate appearances in 2014, he could be an inexpensive source of power. I don't think he's ever going to help on the batting average side but with a proven track record of about 15 homers per year, plus being a left hand hitter combined with that short right field porch at Yankee stadium, 25 to 30 homers isn't out of the question if things break right.

Even if he falls short of that, he's still going to do better than his top comparable through age 31, Bill Hall. He played 7 games in his age 32 season (2012) and his career seems to be done after a promising couple of seasons in 2005 & 2006.

Omar Infante (34% Ownership)

Infante is going to be starting on a 4 year/$30 million deal with the Royals. Over the last few years he's been an average to slightly below average hitter. He provides decent returns in batting average and may even throw in about a dozen homers if things break right. Out of players that may be available, he's one of the more consistent but not necessarily spectacular options out there.

Through age 31, his most similar player is Jimmy Dykes. Dykes had a solid age 32 season .327/.412/.539, I don't see Infante putting numbers up that high (especially on the slugging percentage but he could still have a few decent if not spectacular seasons ahead of him.

Kolten Wong (15% Ownership)

The one thing that Wong could be relied upon if he gets regular playing time is helping in the stolen base category as he can run and run very fast. The main question is whether he can figure out major league pitching (he had a 3 OPS+ in 62 plate appearances) and a base running blunder that ended a World Series game.

Still, that's a small performance sample size, he's only 23, he's a top 100 prospect and the Cardinals (frustratingly) know what they are doing. He's had respectable offensive numbers in the minors (.811 OPS in 280 games). If he  ends up getting regular playing time, I think  he'll struggle some this year but he's definitely a better hitter than his sample size from last year indicates. If you need some stolen base help and can take potential hits in average and power, he may be a viable option.

Emilio Bonifacio (10% Ownership)

The question for the Cubs is whether they are willing to give Bonifacio and his career 79 OPS+ anything resembling regular playing time. The question for fantasy owners is whether a possible 30 or so stolen bases makes up for the fact that he's an otherwise underwhelming player on offense.

His most similar player through age 28 is Alan Bannister. In his age 29 season, he had 250 plate appearances and didn't play very well in those (.641 OPS/86 OPS+). For this year, I would be surprised if Bonifacio kept a regular starting gig throught the season. If your looking for some stolen bases but willing to take a hit in performance you'd be better off taking a risk with someone with more upside such as Kolten Wong.

All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com