Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Likely Available Waiver Wire Talent: Anthony Rendon, Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Kolten Wong, Emilio Bonifacio

Anthony Rendon (44% Ownership)

Rendon was the #6 overall pick in the 2011 draft and got his first taste of major league action in 2013. During his 98 games, he showed he can handle major league pitching but didn't put up superstar numbers .265/.329/.396 99 OPS+ 7 hrs.

He's one of those players that is capable of doing more. He was listed as a top 30 prospect in 2012 & 2013 and only played in 79 minor league games before going to the bigs. He basically crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .939 OPS.

Part of this seems to be helped by a discerning eye as he drew 55 walks in 326 minor league plate appearances. While I think his OBP is going to be strong, i'm not sure he's necessarily going to help owners from the batting average side. I do think he will hit for some more power in 2014 and approach the 15 home run mark.

Kelly Johnson (43% Ownership)

If Johnson is going to provide value, it's going to be from the home run side. It seems like its between Kelly Johnson & Brian Roberts in who's going to fill up the second base spot and do their best to replace Robinson Cano so it would be helpful to monitor how that competition goes in spring training.

Assuming Johnson gets a regular stream of plate appearances in 2014, he could be an inexpensive source of power. I don't think he's ever going to help on the batting average side but with a proven track record of about 15 homers per year, plus being a left hand hitter combined with that short right field porch at Yankee stadium, 25 to 30 homers isn't out of the question if things break right.

Even if he falls short of that, he's still going to do better than his top comparable through age 31, Bill Hall. He played 7 games in his age 32 season (2012) and his career seems to be done after a promising couple of seasons in 2005 & 2006.

Omar Infante (34% Ownership)

Infante is going to be starting on a 4 year/$30 million deal with the Royals. Over the last few years he's been an average to slightly below average hitter. He provides decent returns in batting average and may even throw in about a dozen homers if things break right. Out of players that may be available, he's one of the more consistent but not necessarily spectacular options out there.

Through age 31, his most similar player is Jimmy Dykes. Dykes had a solid age 32 season .327/.412/.539, I don't see Infante putting numbers up that high (especially on the slugging percentage but he could still have a few decent if not spectacular seasons ahead of him.

Kolten Wong (15% Ownership)

The one thing that Wong could be relied upon if he gets regular playing time is helping in the stolen base category as he can run and run very fast. The main question is whether he can figure out major league pitching (he had a 3 OPS+ in 62 plate appearances) and a base running blunder that ended a World Series game.

Still, that's a small performance sample size, he's only 23, he's a top 100 prospect and the Cardinals (frustratingly) know what they are doing. He's had respectable offensive numbers in the minors (.811 OPS in 280 games). If he  ends up getting regular playing time, I think  he'll struggle some this year but he's definitely a better hitter than his sample size from last year indicates. If you need some stolen base help and can take potential hits in average and power, he may be a viable option.

Emilio Bonifacio (10% Ownership)

The question for the Cubs is whether they are willing to give Bonifacio and his career 79 OPS+ anything resembling regular playing time. The question for fantasy owners is whether a possible 30 or so stolen bases makes up for the fact that he's an otherwise underwhelming player on offense.

His most similar player through age 28 is Alan Bannister. In his age 29 season, he had 250 plate appearances and didn't play very well in those (.641 OPS/86 OPS+). For this year, I would be surprised if Bonifacio kept a regular starting gig throught the season. If your looking for some stolen bases but willing to take a hit in performance you'd be better off taking a risk with someone with more upside such as Kolten Wong.

All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com

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