Friday, March 28, 2014

Worth An Add or Not: Dillon Gee, Erasmo Ramirez

One new feature/angle that i'm planning on occasionally going to do this season is look at the Transaction Trends (per Yahoo's figures) and evaluate whether some of the players that are trendy in terms of being added to people's fantasy teams are worth the hype:



Gee is in line to be the opening day starter for the Mets this year. One advantage Gee has is that he plays in a stadium that isn't offense friendly which does allow for his era to be a bit lower. Even with a decent era last year (3.62) he still came in with a 98 ERA+.

One thing that people appear to be banking on is that his strong spring (1.08 ERA/0.9 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings) is the precursor to a breakout season. He is at the age (27) where having a breakout season is more likely and he does have enough experience (502 1/3 career innings) where maybe he can outsmart hitters if he doesn't have his best stuff to go from a decent starting pitcher to a pretty impressive one.

The red flags that could prevent that is that he is prone to giving up homers (6th in the NL last year). The key is whether he can resolve that. His most similar pitcher through age 27 (Joe Cowley) did not do good after that age making five very forgettable appearances at age 28.

While I think Gee has a better future than that, i'm still selling in towards of value. Besides the homers, his strikeout totals aren't inspiring (6.6 per 9 career) and playing on a Mets team expected to be terrible, his win totals could be suppressed.

Erasmo Ramirez:

Another pitcher who has seen his value improve due to a dominating spring. He's pitched a couple partial seasons with one of them being good (2012) and the other one not so much (2013). The key for Ramirez is going to be to cut down on Homers (12 in 72 1/3) and walks (3.2).

One thing in his corner is that he is still very young (23) and logically should improve over the next few years. His most similar pitcher through age 23 is Rube Marshall. While he only had one more season (of below average performance), there are a couple of successful pitchers on his top ten similars through age 23 (Doug Drabek, A.J. Burnett & Jack Morris).

While I think Ramirez is on track to have a successful career, I think he still has a couple of average to slightly below average seasons ahead of him before turning the corner. For this year i'd sell on his value and would only buy on value for keeper leagues.

All numbers, comparisons, etc. found on baseball-reference.com