Wednesday, July 30, 2014

King Of The Waiver Wire Hill: 7/30

Trying (yet) another new thing. I looked at the most picked up hitters in Yahoo! fantasy this morning and pitted the top eight against each other to project which one has the most projected value.

8) Conor Gillaspie

Currently owned in 19% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues with a 1% uptick over yesterday. He has 10 hits over the last five games which has raised his batting average up to .327. His strong batting average to date has been driven by a .373 BABIP which does not seem to show any indication of slowing down soon (though it is bound to sooner rather than later.

While I think he's capable of at least running into some more home runs, once the BABIP comes down to earth, so will his value. Over 650 PA, his line would look something like:

.263/16 HR/63 RBI/0 SB/69 R

7) Emilio Bonifacio

Currently owned in 31% of leagues with a 2% increase from yesterday. He had plenty of opportunity in yesterday's 16-inning marathon game against the Rockies and he took full advantage going 4-7 scoring two runs, driving in 2 runs and even hitting a home run. Since the Cubs are not even close to contention and Bonifacio is not amongst the rising stars on the farm, the news indicates that he could get traded soon. While that may be good for him as he'd get a chance to play for a winner, this could reduce his value as it is possible his playing time could go down depending on where he gets traded to.

His 650 PA projection is:

.278/3 HR/38 RBI/34 SB/79 R

6) Danny Santana

Currently owned in 32% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. The BABIP fueled good times continued as he went 2 for 5 to move his batting average to .318. The player info data in yahoo included the line of "all Santanta does is find ways to contribute offensively" sounds a lot like the description of "he just wins games" mantra that we heard in the middle of Tebow-mania. He's made this last longer than I thought it would. Maybe you gamble to see if he keeps the hot streak going, but this can't last forever.

Projection:

.239/11 HR/71 RBI/92 R/21 SB

5) Yangervis Solarte

Currently owned in 16% of leagues with a 5% increase from yesterday. Since he moved from the Yankees (awesome hitters park) to Petco Field (the exact opposite of that), it seemed a given that his offensive numbers would take a tumble. Instead, he's hit two homers in the last three games, and scoring 2 of 3 runs in last night's victory over the Cardinals (thank you). Over a full season, I think he would hit:

Also, he could be in for a BABIP related rebound (currently at .269) so it is possible his .257 batting average could move into the .280's.

.287/17 HR/78 RBI/0 SB/70 R

4) Josh Harrison

Currently owned in 56% of leagues, a 12% increase from yesterday. It's safe to say that Josh Harrison is ON FIRE right now. He's homered in three consecutive games which has played a contributing role to helping the Giants in their current free-fall while also making things a bit nerve racking as a Brewers fan (Pirates are currently 1 game out). His projection is:

.275/16 HR/63 RBI/22 SB/79 R

3) Chris Carter

Despite going 0 for 3 last night, Carter saw his ownership rate increase to 40% today.Chris Carter doesn't always come close to hitting the ball, but when he does it goes a long, long way. His batting average is always going to be terrible, but at .212 is more terrible than I think it will be going forward due to his BABIP. Going, forward I think he's closer to a .240 hitter with the potential to hit 35-40 homers depending on playing time. His 650 PA projection is as follows:

.241/37 HR/95 RBI/79 R/2 SB

2) Lucas Duda

Currently owned in 53% of leagues with a 13% increase over yesterday. His bat has been scorching hot over the last week (especially last weekend against the Brewers where his bat was the difference between a series split and the Mets getting swept). I've been a proponent of Duda's value for awhile and everyone else seems to be catching on. He appears to have successfully overcome the fact that he plays on the Mets to become a very good player. His projected 650 PA line is as follows:

.264/25 HR/92 RBI/4 SB/75 RBI

Today's (very surprising) waiver wire king of the hill is:

1) J.P. Arencibia

Currently, owned in 3% of leagues, a 1% increase over yesterday. It is safe to say that Arencibia had a very successful day yesterday as he hit 2 home runs and drove in seven runs yesterday.

Considering that his value going into today was so low and the fact that he was in the majors to begin with had more to do with the reality that pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Rangers this year versus something resembling a track record of success (55 wRC+ in 497 plate apperances for Toronto last year).

While he is an albatross on the batting average side, he's not the .183 hitter currently reflected in his stats. He has a .186 BABIP compared to his career BABIP of .245. Adjusting for this, he's closer to a .241 hitter.

He has hit home runs at a decent clip this year (6 in 112 plate appearances) and this appears to be reflective of his home-run hitting ability (15.4% HR/FB rate this year versus 15.2% of in his career).

Based on what he has done in the past, he appears to be more than capable of hitting over 30 home runs over a full season and the number of runs he's driven per at bat both this year and in his career indicate that in the right context/structure/luck, etc. he could drive in north of 100 runs per year.

However, Arencibia's skill set while useful to Fantasy players does not transfer itself well to being a full-time starter. He's drawn walks in a measly 3.6% of his plate appearances. While his .241 batting average would be tolerable to teams if he was more selective at the plate, this projection would also give him a cringe-worthy OBP of .277. Paired with some sub-par defense, he's probably not going to be a full-time starter ever.

With that being said, if you do need extra power (and can stomach a .241 batting average), Arencibia could give you a power boost as he gets regular playing time due to the Rangers injury epidemic.


Will Arencibia defend his crown next time? You'll have to tune in to find out.

All information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo Fantasy!