Chris Coghlan:
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
Basically, finish up the first half on an absolute tear as he's had six multi-hit games since July fourth and added three of this year's five homers in the process.
Where Does He Rank on the Zeplen Dean Scale:
While I haven't developed this for pitchers yet, I have enough of this data for hitters that the general guidelines (varies by position) are as follows:
>80 Super Duper Star
71-80 Elite Star
61-70 Very Good
55-60 Above Average
50-54 Average
45-49 Below Average
40-44 Not Good
<40 Not Even Close To Good:
48.81
Coghlan, while he is on a torrid hot streak, is not going to be a mysterious breakout star at age 29. He has a respectable (though not inspiring) Zeplen Dean Score of 48.81. His current batting average of .275 is bound to stay the same as this year's BABIP is nearly identical to his career (.316/.317). Also, it is unknown how much longer he will have regular playing time and/or get injured. If he were to ever get a full season of playing time, the Zeplen Dean projection would give the following.
.276/.363/.403 14 HR 55 RBI, 21 Stolen Bases
Over his previous five years, he's averaged 316 plate appearances per year, adjusting for this, his likely 2014 totals will look something like this.
.276/.363/.403 7 HR 27 RBI 10 SB
In the interim term, Coghlan may keep his hot streak going for a little bit and may give you the occasional home run or stolen base, but he's definitely not a long term plan.
Looking at his comparisons on baseball-reference, it doesn't look like playing time is mysteriously going up. His top comparison R.J. Reynolds had three seasons of slightly below average play (ranging between 243 & 403 plate appearances) from ages 29-31.
All numbers referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com
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