Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Zeplen Dean Projection System: Second Base

Since we're transitioning from First Base to Second Vase, we are also transitioning over to lower overall scores on the Zeplen Dean system (no second basemen was over 60, though two of them were at 59). The rankings within this beta system are as follows.

One thing that did surprise me is how closely together players were in the rankings. As the season progresses, my estimate is that there is likely to be more volatility in the rankings here versus the other positions that have been covered.

The Top Tier, Very Similar In Value

1-Robinson Cano (59.83)
2-Ian Kinsler (59.42)

The Next Best Options (54-55)

3-Anthony Rendon
4-Chase Utley
5-Scooter Gennett
6-Jose Altuve

Even as a Brewers fan, I think this formula over-values Scooter Gennett. He has had BABIPs above .350 in both seasons which keeps his projected batting average high. With less than 500 plate appearances under his belt, its too early to tell if he's one of those players who consistently has a higher than average BABIP or if he's gotten fortunate two seasons in a row. It also assumes plate appearances are equal (650) which basically doesn't put into consideration that he gets benched in favor of Rickie Weeks whenever the Brewers opponent start against a left-handed pitcher. With this platoon, I think Gennett has more value in daily based leagues than standard fantasy leagues.

Decent Options but A Not as Good (47-51)

7-Brian Dozier
8-Daniel Murphy
9-Neil Walker
10-Matt Carpenter
11-Howie Kendrick
12-Omar Infante
13-Dustin Pedroia

Even though Brian Dozier is having a very good year in the power and speed categories, he gets weighed down as he had a lesser track record in the power department prior to this year and his projected batting average is very pedestrian (.252)

You Can Do Better (40-45)

14-Brian Roberts
15-Brandon Phillips
16-DJ LaMahieu
17-Ben Zobrist
18- Aaron Hill

Even at a Thin Position, Better Options Await (35-39)

19-Gordan Beckham
20-Brad Miller

Run the Other Direction (<30)

21-Logan Forsythe
22-Luis Valbuena
23-Danny Espinosa

Even though Forsythe is a trendy pick up right now and Valbuena is having a good season (fueled by BABIP), starting them is likely a risky proposition. Even though Espinosa will provide some home runs and stolen bases, the Zeplen Dean system also projects him to struggle to stay above the Mendoza Line with a projected batting average of .202.

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