Clay Bucholz:
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
In the larger scope of 2014, not much as he has struggled very much this year with an ERA north of 5 and a WHIP of 1.51. But he does have a couple of years where he pitched extremely effectively (2010, 2013) and is coming off a very strong start against the Astros where he threw a three hit shutout and struck out 12 batters
What To Expect Going Forward:
Is this the start of a strong second half or did Bucholz just have a good day? In looking at his FIP & xFIP numbers, he has gotten somewhat unlucky but even these numbers don't exactly paint a pretty picture.
Another thing to keep in mind is that his opposing BABIP (.328) is also much higher than his career total (.284). Going forward, I could see some improvement in his performance (ERA of about 3.96) but any expectation of him replicating what he did in 2013 is a bit of a stretch.
Still, even a modest improvement like this could be a risk. One red flag that is flaring up is that he is inducing a lower percentage of ground balls this year. From 2008-2013, his ground ball rate was in the 47%-53% range for any given year. In 2014, that total has gone down to 41.8%. If this trend continues into the second half, his ERA/WHIP numbers could continue to look unsightly.
Beyond 2014, what can we expect. Through his age 28 season, his closest comparision per Baseball-Reference is Rick Rhoden. Starting with his age 29 season, Rhoden pitched at least 181 innings in seven consecutive seasons being serviceable for the most part and among the better pitchers on occasion (three seasons with an ERA+ above 120).
While Bucholz had a higher ceiling in performance in 2010 & 2013, he has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for extended periods of time and while I think he's going to have a better second half, I don't think it's going to be a difference maker in terms of a miracle Red Sox comeback or winning people fantasy titles.
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