Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Third Base Rankings: 7/29

Top 20 Rankings for Third Base For 7/29/14

1-Adrian Beltre
2-Josh Donaldson
3-Anthony Rendon
4-Todd Frazier
5-Kyle Seager
6-Aramis Ramirez

7-Mike Moustakas

Currently owned in 18% of leagues. He's disappointed year after year but this year seems to be the mis-fortune of bad luck versus being disappointing. He has shown underlying signs of improvement as his walk rate has gone from 6% to 8% but his BABIP is at .189 (career total is .260). When adjusting for this his batting average is .268 (.236 for his career).

While he has gotten fortunate on the home run front as his HR/FB ratio is higher than usual, he still is a decent bet to push at least 20 home runs. The 650 plate appearance projection for him is as follows:

.268/19 HR/93 RBI/75 R/2 SB

Bottom line, is that he is a sneaky good, buy-low candidate.

Verdict: Buy, that .189 BABIP is gonna improve sooner rather than later.

8-Matt Carpenter
9-Evan Longoria
10-David Wright
11-Lonnie Chisenhall
12-Josh Harrison

*Ryan Zimmerman would be right below Harrison if he wasn't injured

13-Nolan Arenado
14-Pablo Sandoval
15-Pedro Alvarez
16-Juan Francisco
17-Casey McGehee

* Brett Lawrie would be right below McGehee if he wasn't injured

18-Martin Prado
19-Mark Reynolds
20-Chris Johnson

Some other third basemen that are available in less than 50% of leagues:

Brock Holt (48%)

Rank: 36

While Holt is still hitting above .300, his performance appears to finally be regressing towards sub-standard levels. He is 1 for his last 19 and it appears that his ownership stock has plateaued (he's seen his rate decrease by 5% since Yesterday).

I wasn't high on him when he was actually hitting well and i'm definitely not high on him as there are clues that his .373 BABIP is coming back down to earth.

Over a full season, i think he'd do the following:

.245/8 HR/44 RBI/11 SB/70 R

Maybe double-digit steals, definite single digit home runs, a sub .250 batting average. I'm assuming that the Red Sox are likely to stock their roster in the off-season and find someone better to take the at bats that Holt has gotten fortunate with this year.

Verdict: And the Regression Starts Now

Jedd Gyorko (33%)

Rank: 31

Gyorko, he has to be like the most unluckiest hitter in the universe (.196 BABIP). Over a full season (650 PA). With that being said even adjusting for this will provide for some home runs but still an overall mediocre value at third base

.251/21 HR/73 RBI/4SB/51 R

Verdict: Sell

David Freese (21%)

Rank: 23

A lot of people were hoping that a change of scenery would help David Freese have a bounce back season. After taking a look, this is about as good as it's going to get. His BABIP while high (.333) is lower than his career totals and his HR/FB ratio is slightly lower than career norms. The only thing keeping his ranking as high as it is are decent run & rbi totals from being on the Angels. His numbers projected over 650 PA are as follows:

.254/15 HR/77 RBI/2 SB/73 R

Verdict: Sell

Research for this article done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo Fantasy