Thursday, July 31, 2014

King of the Waiver Wire Hill: 7/31

8) Oscar Taveras

Currently owned in 24% of leagues. His place among trendy player pick-ups is a byproduct of Allen Craig being part of the package the Red Sox got in return for John Lackey.

The advice showing up on him is that he's worth picking him. While I think his future is bright, i'm just not sure it's here yet. He did struggle after his initial call-up in June. While some of this is BABIP related (.235), that still brings only brings his average up to .266, with a current 4.0% walk rate that would bring his projected OBP to a paltry .306.

Beyond that, i'm not sure if he brings much power to the table (i'm thinking maybe 10 over the course of a full season) and he doesn't bring anything in regards to speed. For keeper leagues, he may be worth a look since he's still only 21 but for immediate short-term returns, not so much

7) Jedd Gyorko

Currently owned in 37% of leagues. He had himself a really good day against the Cardinals yesterday (3-5 2 R, HR, 4 RBI...thank you) bringing his batting average up to .181. Gyorko has been horribly unlucky in the BABIP department this year (.213) and this could be the start of a recovery from what has been thus far a horrible season.

My projection has his batting average at .255 and the capability to hit 20+ homers over the course of a full season.

6) Denard Span

Currently owned in 40% of leagues. Span had himself a nice day against the Marlins as he stole two bases and scored two runs in yesterday's 4-3 win. While he's never going to be a massive power force, my latest projection shows him able to score 92 runs and steal 26 bases over a full season (650 plate appearances).

5) Yangervis Solarte

Currently owned in 20% of leagues. Solarte had another big day against the Cardinals 4-5 R, 2 RBI (thank you again!!!!!) as the Padres had a nice 12-1 beat down over the Cardinals. The most recent projection has him hitting .286 with a like chance of 15-20 homers per year.

Now for a side tangent. Yesterday, Heather dressed up Zeplen in a Brewers outfit and in my hadn't had my morning cup of coffee haze made a comment on how maybe this would help the Brewers snap their three game losing streak (which they did by beating Tampa Bay 5-0). In addition, the Pirates ending up losing (contributing factor being one of the worst base-running blunders you will ever see on a major league field). To top it all off, the Padres sweetened the deal by absolutely dominating the Cardinals.

4) Allen Craig

Currently owned in 74% of leagues. Allen Craig's value is in flux right now as he is also one of the most dropped players today. Despite being one of the most added players, he has seen his ownership rate decrease by 3%.

First of all, i'm glad that Craig is now in the American League as he always seemed to feast on Brewers pitching. That being said, this was a good buy-low option for the Red Sox. His BABIP this year (.281) is well below career totals and I could see his average hit the high .270s and hit 18-20 homers.

3) J.P. Arencibia

His ownership rate is up to a whopping 4%. He ended up going 0 for 3 yesterday and the numbers contributed him to being unable to defend his title at the top of Waiver Wire hill. While his home run total (over a full season) projects to 30+ homers (32), his projected batting average has moved down to .234.

2) Lucas Duda

Currently owned in 56% of leagues. In this countdown, he seems to be in the 1990s Buffalo Bills role, finishing in second place for the second consecutive day. You can't blame this on lack of recent performance as he homered and drove in three yesterday and has five homers in his last 8 games. Today's projection has him hitting .265/26 HR/94 RBI over 650 plate appearances.

And the King of Waiver Wire Hill Today Is:

1) Matt Kemp

This is probably not fair since he is owned in 92% of leagues, but this total is still 2% higher than it was yesterday and he still has somehow been one of the most added hitters in Fantasy today.

The most likely scenario is someone having him on the bench instead of starting versus him being available in most leagues. Anyway's his bat is sort of on fire right now (three home runs over the last two games) and showing no signs of cooling down. His full-season projection is .279/22 HR/84 RBI/17 SB/82 R, a far cry from his near-MVP performance in 2011 but still not bad.

All research for this posting done on fangraphs.com and Yahoo! Fantasy