Listed below are the Zeplen Dean Rankings for First Basemen this season. I took the position data in Fangraphs filtered by players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Based on this, there are players eligible at multiple positions that are getting picked up and players that have only been in the majors for partial seasons.
Based on the Zeplen Dean scores and standard deviations, there were initially five tiers as Edwin Encarnacion had a score that made it 2 standard deviations above by 0.18 points but he gets excluded from this ranking as he is currently on the disabled list.
Tier 1:
1B-Jose Abreu
2-Miguel Cabrera
3-Albert Pujols
4-Paul Goldschmidt
5-Mark Teixeira
Teixeira may still be available as he is owned is 65% of Yahoo leagues. He does come with a high injury risk based on his recent history but if he stays healthy all season projects to end up in the 32 homers/97 rbi range.
The one thing that is artificially deflating his value is his .238 batting average. However, this is driven by a .243 BABIP. If this normalizes the rest of the season he could have a batting average around .290 going forward
Tier 2:
6-Brandon Moss
7-Justin Morneau
8-Anthony Rizzo
9-Freddie Freeman
10-Adrian Gonzales
11-Matt Adams
12-Adam LaRoche
Adams is (as of this writing) the third most popular pick up in Yahoo today. If he is still available, you may need to act fast as he is owned in 83% of leagues. Adams is red hot right now as he hit a walk off homer last night and is riding a five game hitting streak. For a first basemen, he does provide decent power (23 homers per 650 PA) versus a mean of 25.123 but projects to have a strong batting average .309 and the occasional stolen base (7 per 650 plate appearances).
Tier 3:
13-Lucas Duda
14-Michael Morse
15-Chris Davis
16-Carlos Santana
17-Mark Reynolds
18-Ryan Howard
19-Garrett Jones
20-James Loney
21-Allen Craig
Note: Joe Mauer would have been ranked between Loney & Craig but was removed due to currently being on the disabled list.
Duda may be severely below the radar for most people as the Mets aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. Still, he is slightly below the cut off line for average performance based on the players in this sample which should earn him a spot on more than 19% of leagues. Given a full season, Duda would project out to a .262 average and about 27 homers.
Tier 4:
22-Mike Napoli
23-Eric Hosmer
24-Adam Dunn
25-Nick Swisher
Hosmer has shown some signs of heating up as he has a 7 game hitting streak going. However, in true Hosmer fashion even this recent good stretch has come with a side order of disappointment as he has zero homers, 3 rbi and a stolen base during this stretch. The allure of him possibly displaying his potential has fooled myself for awhile (before eventually dropping him) but he seems to still have enough people fooled to be owned in 75% of leagues. The Zeplen Dean system projects a paltry .259 average and 11 homers going forward for Hosmer.
A couple of under the radar players that are owned in LT 25% of leagues and either have primary eligibility elsewhere or not enough plate appearances.
Conor Gillaspie (8%)
Primarily eligible at third base. Decent batting average .310 primarily driven by high BABIP (.360). Adjusting for this, his batting average is closer to .256 and expected homers per year is in the 7-8 range. I would pass on him (at least at first).
Chris Carter (19%)
Also with outfield eligibility. Whether to take a flier on him depends on how much of a hit you are willing to take with your batting average. Over the course of a full season (650 PA), I could see him hitting 34 homers. His average is artificially lower due to a .226 BABIP but even after adjusting for this an average in the low .230s is closer to what i'd expect. I wouldn't completely ignore Carter but definitely a buyer beware instance.
As i'm developing and tinkering with the ranking system, writing style, etc. i'd like feedback on whether i'm at least in the ballpark with these rankings (no pun intended) and any suggestions and how to make these postings more interesting.
Research for this posting done with data found on fangraphs.com and numbers referencing ownership levels found on Yahoo
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