Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Totally Wired: Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana:

What he's done to get picked up:

He's been one of the stronger starting pitchers over the last month. While Chris Sale has a much higher profile, Quintana has given up three runs or less in his last five starts and has struck out at least six batters in his last six starts. This stretch has moved his ERA to 3.24, WHIP to 1.2 and his strikeout total over 100 (107).

What to expect going forward:

This strong performance appears to be highly sustainable. He's not getting lucky on balls in play as his BABIP is squarely at .300 and if anything, his FIP (2.85) indicates that his numbers are stronger than what is indicated on the surface. If he's currently available in your league, he's definitely someone worth picking up. My estimate is that his numbers will end up looking something like this (projected to 200 innings pitched):

9 Wins, 167 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.2 WHIP

Bottom line, I think he provides solid value especially with strikeouts and ERA but overall value is partially held back by being on a non-contending White Sox team which is going to reduce the likelihood of his very strong outings turning into wins.

While he hasn't been particular lucky overall, one thing that has worked in his favor is that not as many fly balls have turned into home runs (5.6% this year versus 10.5% & 10.2% over the last two years). There is the possibility that this number could equalize itself out at some point during the second half.

All numbers, information referenced found on fangraphs.com

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