Vance Worley
Currently owned in 20% of leagues. His last game was Saturday's game against Arizona where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Even though the Pirates are competing with the Brewers for a playoff spot, I really hope Arizona loses the rest of their games based on how they conduct themselves and the fact that they seek retribution for things that were non-intentional.
In the short-term, he could be a good daily play since his next start is against the Padres. In the long-term, i'm not sold despite his 2.43 ERA this year, quite frankly he doesn't strike out enough batters (5.17 per 9 innings) and there's not much in his career or deeper numbers from this season to motivate me to pick him up.
Mike Leake:
Currently owned in 45% of leagues. His value has gone up based off his last start against the Marlins where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. While this helped his perceived value, it didn't help him move up the rankings I have. Similar to Worley where he may be a good play in daily leagues when he makes his next start against the Marlins but i'm not sure whether he's worth adding to standard leagues. With that being said, if forced to pick between the two, Mike Leake would be the safer addition.
Chris Coghlan:
One of those players that has gotten playing time by playing for a non-contending team and combined with some good luck has managed to take advantage of this situation. The Cubs may have embarrassed themselves against the Rockies yesterday, but Coghlan can't be blamed for that as he got three hits.
In the long term, i'm not convinced this is sustainable. He has been aided by a high BABIP and I think he's closer to a .270 hitter than a .300 hitter. Also, he doesn't project out to hit for much power in the long-term. A useful addition to a major league roster, I just don't see much value on the Fantasy side.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He's another play that has been one of the trendy pick ups on a regular basis as he went 1 for 4 and drove in 2 runs in a loss to Tampa Bay and a rare bad start from Sonny Gray.
While the context of his recent hot streak his helped his perceived value, he actually dropped one spot in my rankings from 176th to 177th. He could be a low-level source of power but I think he's closer to a .240 hitter than his current .260 average.
Chase Anderson:
Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He has had two consecutive starts where he only gave up one run each (against the Reds & Pirates, thank you). In a season where the Diamondbacks have disappointed both ethically and on the field, he has been one of their few bright spots.
Depending on what angle the analysis point is, he's either decently under-valued or playing over his head. While his ERA (3.19) is much stronger than where I have him projected (4.03), he is still a decent source of strikeouts and for how bad his team has been, he has managed to stumble his way into some wins.
While he his pitching a bit over his head and I expect some fall off, I still think he's at least worth a look. I have him ranked 52nd out of 107 starting pitchers which all in all isn't bad for someone available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues.
Chris Tillman:
Currently owned in 46% of leagues. His value has gone up due to an extended stretch where he's given up 3 earned runs or less in each start since June 10. Between reviewing him on Wei-Yin Chen, it makes me less convinced that Baltimore has a strong chance of holding on in the AL East.
While he has a healthy looking win-loss record (8-5) his ERA projects out to 4.27. Bottom line, even on the waiver wire you can do better, and my estimate is that he runs into some struggles sooner rather than later.
All numbers, information referenced found on Yahoo! Fantasy and fangraphs.com
Showing posts with label chris coghlan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chris coghlan. Show all posts
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Monday, July 21, 2014
Waiver Wired: Around the Lineup 7/21
A quick look at some players that are trendy waiver wire acquisitions today and whether or not they are worth a look:
Catcher:
Stephen Vogt
Current Rank: 117
Current Score: 47.8
Vogt's strong season continues as he had 3 hits in Sunday's win over Baltimore. Vogt is currently raking at a .364 average. (fueled by a .386 BABIP). Even after regression, he's still a solid bet at batting average .283. He wasn't in this weeks rankings as he only has 126 plate appearances this year. Looking at the data, I think he would project out to the following over a full season.
.283 63R, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
This projects out to a score of 47.8 which would rank him 117. While Vogt keeping his average at .364 is extremely unlikely, even after pulling the BABIP covers, there is a player with enough value at the Catcher position to justify picking up.
Verdict: Buy
First Base:
Brock Holt
Current Rank: 209
Current Score: 38.3
Also available/eligible at third base & outfield. The majority of his value so far has been at batting average (which is being help up by a .392 BABIP). While the BABIP is making his numbers look better (like Vogt), unlike Vogt i'm not sure there is enough value when this area holds off.
Assuming his skill set includes a BABIP of around .300, his actual future average would be divided by 1.3, which gives us an average of .250 with single digit home runs and maybe double figures in steals.
Verdict: Sell
Kolten Wong
Current Rank: 59
Current Score: 55.1
While the home run power has cooled off, his bat has not as he had a very strong weekend series against the Dodgers. Even though this hot streak has moved his average up (at .251 after this weekend), this number is still artificially being held back due to a still below average BABIP.
Going forward, I think he can provide a batting average around .287, possible double digit home runs power and possibly 35-40 steals. Yet, he's only owned in 38% of leagues in Yahoo, better get him while you can.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Chris Coghlan
Current Rank: 169
Current Score: 42.1
Another player who thus far has followed up a strong end of the first-half with a solid showing in the second half of the season as he got a couple of hits in Sunday's lost to Arizona. If given the chance to play full time for a year, I could see him breaking into double digits for homers and steals but he projects closer to a .255 hitter (versus his current .278 average).
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
J.J Hardy
Current Rank: 253
Current Score: 34.2
If Baltimore is going to hold onto first place, they will need to get more power contributions from Hardy in the second half (like they got on Saturday against Oakland.
Even though his power was non-existent in the first-half, he was lucky in getting hits as his BABIP (.330) is significantly higher than his career total (.277). Even though I like Hardy as a player (I even have his bobble head doll) i'm not sold on the average staying up (i'm thinking this is closer to .236 going forward).
The question is whether he can return to the 25-30 homer/season form he has shown in the past. So far this year his HR/FB rate has been 3.6% (compared to his 10.9% career total).
While adjusting for this helps his home run projection a little bit (taking it from 13 to 19), he still ranks very lowly on the Zeplen Dean system. He could be of use if you really, really need the power but his 2014 BABIP compared to his career BABIP indicates that he could hurt owners in the batting average category.
Verdict: Sell
Outfield:
Carlos Beltran:
Current Rank: 84
Current Score: 51
Beltran's value is down due to injuries, age and a .228 BABIP which has dragged his average down to .222 and made this season's performance look worse than it actually is.
He did break into double figures for home runs the other day. Despite being a brand-name player and playing the Yankees, the issues in the aforementioned paragraph have his ownership rate at 62%. If he's still available ( and stays healthy) he could be a valuable upgrade for fantasy owners in the second half.
If his BABIP returns to normal levels for him, I could see the batting average come in at .288. Over the course of a full (healthy) season, I think he's still capable of hitting 25 homers per year.
Verdict: Buy
Austin Jackson:
Current Rank: 133
Current Score: 45.5
Jackson had a strong weekend, getting six hits in the Tigers series against the Indians. While his BABIP this year seems high (.328) this is actually well below his career total in this area (.356). Putting this into consideration, I think he is closer to a .286 hitter but with limited value in power (8 projected home runs) and modest speed (16 steals). While his performance is not off the charts bad, there's nothing to indicate that he's going to have any performance upside (like Carlos Beltran) has as we head into the second half.
Verdict: Sell
Torii Hunter:
Current Rank: 16
Current Score: 66.7
Currently owned in 69% of leagues but still the 7th most added outfielder in Yahoo today (as of 12:37 PST).
He ended up ranking much higher than I expected with the way I put the numbers together. This is probably a mixture of me needing to tweak the numbers and also BABIP fueled metrics. Coming into today, he has a .283 BABIP (.309 career) and comes in with a .275 batting average.
Factoring out for this, his batting average could come in closer to .318 while maintaining very solid pop in his bat (13 homers so far this year/23 over a full year projected by the Zeplen Dean System.
Verdict: Buy
All research for this posting done through Yahoo! Fantasy & Fangraphs.com
Catcher:
Stephen Vogt
Current Rank: 117
Current Score: 47.8
Vogt's strong season continues as he had 3 hits in Sunday's win over Baltimore. Vogt is currently raking at a .364 average. (fueled by a .386 BABIP). Even after regression, he's still a solid bet at batting average .283. He wasn't in this weeks rankings as he only has 126 plate appearances this year. Looking at the data, I think he would project out to the following over a full season.
.283 63R, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
This projects out to a score of 47.8 which would rank him 117. While Vogt keeping his average at .364 is extremely unlikely, even after pulling the BABIP covers, there is a player with enough value at the Catcher position to justify picking up.
Verdict: Buy
First Base:
Brock Holt
Current Rank: 209
Current Score: 38.3
Also available/eligible at third base & outfield. The majority of his value so far has been at batting average (which is being help up by a .392 BABIP). While the BABIP is making his numbers look better (like Vogt), unlike Vogt i'm not sure there is enough value when this area holds off.
Assuming his skill set includes a BABIP of around .300, his actual future average would be divided by 1.3, which gives us an average of .250 with single digit home runs and maybe double figures in steals.
Verdict: Sell
Kolten Wong
Current Rank: 59
Current Score: 55.1
While the home run power has cooled off, his bat has not as he had a very strong weekend series against the Dodgers. Even though this hot streak has moved his average up (at .251 after this weekend), this number is still artificially being held back due to a still below average BABIP.
Going forward, I think he can provide a batting average around .287, possible double digit home runs power and possibly 35-40 steals. Yet, he's only owned in 38% of leagues in Yahoo, better get him while you can.
Verdict: Buy
Third Base:
Chris Coghlan
Current Rank: 169
Current Score: 42.1
Another player who thus far has followed up a strong end of the first-half with a solid showing in the second half of the season as he got a couple of hits in Sunday's lost to Arizona. If given the chance to play full time for a year, I could see him breaking into double digits for homers and steals but he projects closer to a .255 hitter (versus his current .278 average).
Verdict: Sell
Shortstop:
J.J Hardy
Current Rank: 253
Current Score: 34.2
If Baltimore is going to hold onto first place, they will need to get more power contributions from Hardy in the second half (like they got on Saturday against Oakland.
Even though his power was non-existent in the first-half, he was lucky in getting hits as his BABIP (.330) is significantly higher than his career total (.277). Even though I like Hardy as a player (I even have his bobble head doll) i'm not sold on the average staying up (i'm thinking this is closer to .236 going forward).
The question is whether he can return to the 25-30 homer/season form he has shown in the past. So far this year his HR/FB rate has been 3.6% (compared to his 10.9% career total).
While adjusting for this helps his home run projection a little bit (taking it from 13 to 19), he still ranks very lowly on the Zeplen Dean system. He could be of use if you really, really need the power but his 2014 BABIP compared to his career BABIP indicates that he could hurt owners in the batting average category.
Verdict: Sell
Outfield:
Carlos Beltran:
Current Rank: 84
Current Score: 51
Beltran's value is down due to injuries, age and a .228 BABIP which has dragged his average down to .222 and made this season's performance look worse than it actually is.
He did break into double figures for home runs the other day. Despite being a brand-name player and playing the Yankees, the issues in the aforementioned paragraph have his ownership rate at 62%. If he's still available ( and stays healthy) he could be a valuable upgrade for fantasy owners in the second half.
If his BABIP returns to normal levels for him, I could see the batting average come in at .288. Over the course of a full (healthy) season, I think he's still capable of hitting 25 homers per year.
Verdict: Buy
Austin Jackson:
Current Rank: 133
Current Score: 45.5
Jackson had a strong weekend, getting six hits in the Tigers series against the Indians. While his BABIP this year seems high (.328) this is actually well below his career total in this area (.356). Putting this into consideration, I think he is closer to a .286 hitter but with limited value in power (8 projected home runs) and modest speed (16 steals). While his performance is not off the charts bad, there's nothing to indicate that he's going to have any performance upside (like Carlos Beltran) has as we head into the second half.
Verdict: Sell
Torii Hunter:
Current Rank: 16
Current Score: 66.7
Currently owned in 69% of leagues but still the 7th most added outfielder in Yahoo today (as of 12:37 PST).
He ended up ranking much higher than I expected with the way I put the numbers together. This is probably a mixture of me needing to tweak the numbers and also BABIP fueled metrics. Coming into today, he has a .283 BABIP (.309 career) and comes in with a .275 batting average.
Factoring out for this, his batting average could come in closer to .318 while maintaining very solid pop in his bat (13 homers so far this year/23 over a full year projected by the Zeplen Dean System.
Verdict: Buy
All research for this posting done through Yahoo! Fantasy & Fangraphs.com
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Musings, Ramblings & Other Stuff: Chris Coghlan
Chris Coghlan:
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
Basically, finish up the first half on an absolute tear as he's had six multi-hit games since July fourth and added three of this year's five homers in the process.
Where Does He Rank on the Zeplen Dean Scale:
While I haven't developed this for pitchers yet, I have enough of this data for hitters that the general guidelines (varies by position) are as follows:
>80 Super Duper Star
71-80 Elite Star
61-70 Very Good
55-60 Above Average
50-54 Average
45-49 Below Average
40-44 Not Good
<40 Not Even Close To Good:
48.81
Coghlan, while he is on a torrid hot streak, is not going to be a mysterious breakout star at age 29. He has a respectable (though not inspiring) Zeplen Dean Score of 48.81. His current batting average of .275 is bound to stay the same as this year's BABIP is nearly identical to his career (.316/.317). Also, it is unknown how much longer he will have regular playing time and/or get injured. If he were to ever get a full season of playing time, the Zeplen Dean projection would give the following.
.276/.363/.403 14 HR 55 RBI, 21 Stolen Bases
Over his previous five years, he's averaged 316 plate appearances per year, adjusting for this, his likely 2014 totals will look something like this.
.276/.363/.403 7 HR 27 RBI 10 SB
In the interim term, Coghlan may keep his hot streak going for a little bit and may give you the occasional home run or stolen base, but he's definitely not a long term plan.
Looking at his comparisons on baseball-reference, it doesn't look like playing time is mysteriously going up. His top comparison R.J. Reynolds had three seasons of slightly below average play (ranging between 243 & 403 plate appearances) from ages 29-31.
All numbers referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com
What He's Done To Get Picked Up:
Basically, finish up the first half on an absolute tear as he's had six multi-hit games since July fourth and added three of this year's five homers in the process.
Where Does He Rank on the Zeplen Dean Scale:
While I haven't developed this for pitchers yet, I have enough of this data for hitters that the general guidelines (varies by position) are as follows:
>80 Super Duper Star
71-80 Elite Star
61-70 Very Good
55-60 Above Average
50-54 Average
45-49 Below Average
40-44 Not Good
<40 Not Even Close To Good:
48.81
Coghlan, while he is on a torrid hot streak, is not going to be a mysterious breakout star at age 29. He has a respectable (though not inspiring) Zeplen Dean Score of 48.81. His current batting average of .275 is bound to stay the same as this year's BABIP is nearly identical to his career (.316/.317). Also, it is unknown how much longer he will have regular playing time and/or get injured. If he were to ever get a full season of playing time, the Zeplen Dean projection would give the following.
.276/.363/.403 14 HR 55 RBI, 21 Stolen Bases
Over his previous five years, he's averaged 316 plate appearances per year, adjusting for this, his likely 2014 totals will look something like this.
.276/.363/.403 7 HR 27 RBI 10 SB
In the interim term, Coghlan may keep his hot streak going for a little bit and may give you the occasional home run or stolen base, but he's definitely not a long term plan.
Looking at his comparisons on baseball-reference, it doesn't look like playing time is mysteriously going up. His top comparison R.J. Reynolds had three seasons of slightly below average play (ranging between 243 & 403 plate appearances) from ages 29-31.
All numbers referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com
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