Thursday, August 7, 2014

Trendy Waiver Wire Pickups: 8/7

Vance Worley

Currently owned in 20% of leagues. His last game was Saturday's game against Arizona where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Even though the Pirates are competing with the Brewers for a playoff spot, I really hope Arizona loses the rest of their games based on how they conduct themselves and the fact that they seek retribution for things that were non-intentional.

In the short-term, he could be a good daily play since his next start is against the Padres. In the long-term, i'm not sold despite his 2.43 ERA this year, quite frankly he doesn't strike out enough batters (5.17 per 9 innings) and there's not much in his career or deeper numbers from this season to motivate me to pick him up.

Mike Leake:

Currently owned in 45% of leagues. His value has gone up based off his last start against the Marlins where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. While this helped his perceived value, it didn't help him move up the rankings I have. Similar to Worley where he may be a good play in daily leagues when he makes his next start against the Marlins but i'm not sure whether he's worth adding to standard leagues. With that being said, if forced to pick between the two, Mike Leake would be the safer addition.

Chris Coghlan:

One of those players that has gotten playing time by playing for a non-contending team and combined with some good luck has managed to take advantage of this situation. The Cubs may have embarrassed themselves against the Rockies yesterday, but Coghlan can't be blamed for that as he got three hits.

In the long term, i'm not convinced this is sustainable. He has been aided by a high BABIP and I think he's closer to a .270 hitter than a .300 hitter. Also, he doesn't project out to hit for much power in the long-term. A useful addition to a major league roster, I just don't see much value on the Fantasy side.

Josh Reddick:

Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He's another play that has been one of the trendy pick ups on a regular basis as he went 1 for 4 and drove in 2 runs in a loss to Tampa Bay and a rare bad start from Sonny Gray.

While the context of his recent hot streak his helped his perceived value, he actually dropped one spot in my rankings from 176th to 177th. He could be a low-level source of power but I think he's closer to a .240 hitter than his current .260 average.

Chase Anderson:

Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He has had two consecutive starts where he only gave up one run each (against the Reds & Pirates, thank you). In a season where the Diamondbacks have disappointed both ethically and on the field, he has been one of their few bright spots.

Depending on what angle the analysis point is, he's either decently under-valued or playing over his head. While his ERA (3.19) is much stronger than where I have him projected (4.03), he is still a decent source of strikeouts and for how bad his team has been, he has managed to stumble his way into some wins.

While he his pitching a bit over his head and I expect some fall off, I still think he's at least worth a look. I have him ranked 52nd out of 107 starting pitchers which all in all isn't bad for someone available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues.

Chris Tillman:

Currently owned in 46% of leagues. His value has gone up due to an extended stretch where he's given up 3 earned runs or less in each start since June 10. Between reviewing him on Wei-Yin Chen, it makes me less convinced that Baltimore has a strong chance of holding on in the AL East.

While he has a healthy looking win-loss record (8-5) his ERA projects out to 4.27. Bottom line, even on the waiver wire you can do better, and my estimate is that he runs into some struggles sooner rather than later.


All numbers, information referenced found on Yahoo! Fantasy and fangraphs.com