Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Trendy Waiver Wire Pick Ups: 8/5/14

Some thoughts on today's trendy waiver-wire pick ups:

Javier Baez:

The long-anticipated major league debut for Javier Baez is here. He is 21, full of promise and seems destined to be a star in the long-term. The question remains whether he is destined to be a useful player in the short term.

For season-long players, it depends on how much of a hit your willing to take on batting average. I think at least initially, it's going to be around the .220 range so far (he hit .260 in Triple-A and i'm adjusting 15% decrease based on increase in competition. With that being said, I think he has the ability to immediately contribute on the home run/stolen base side of things. Either way, this appears to be another step the Cubs are taking between the terrible team they are today and the potential contending team they may be in a couple of years.

For daily players, I have two words for you: Coors Field. Despite the drawback in batting average, I have him ranked 59th (out of 322 batters).

Either way, he's worth the pick up regardless of format.

Tyler Flowers:

His value has increased in context (11% ownership) due to a big game against the Rangers. In the long-term, I think this is an over-reaction to one good game. While I think he could hit 20 homers in a season if given the chance to play long-term, even the below average numbers he has this year (90 wRC+) may be above his actual ability as he has benefited from a .380 BABIP. It appears this could be his peak and frankly his peak is not that high. Once the BABIP wears off, he goes from a .252 hitter to flirting with the Mendoza Line.

Wei-Yin Chen:

His last couple starts have come against the Mariners and he has taken advantage by giving up 1 run over 15 1/3 inning. Even with this recent performance, I have him ranked 49th in the Starting Pitcher category. That and his value appears tied primarily to a shiny 12-3 record as he's had the good fortune of being on a first place Baltimore team. Still, i'm not quite sold on him as his next start will be against a stronger (though short-handed Toronto) team and most of the other numbers available indicate that he's a very average pitcher.

Danny Santana:

He just (somehow) keeps hitting, his latest value boost can be seen in his 5-hit outburst against the White Sox on Sunday. While still (not even close) to being sold on him, the rankings i'm doing he's at least moved up to 157 putting him squarely in the middle of the pack.

He could be decent source of home runs and stolen bases, but still projects out to being a .243 hitter if/when his BABIP fueled hot streak runs its course (similar to what's happening with Brock Holt).

Denard Span:

Span keeps on hitting on a steady base (3 straight multi-hit games/4 in the last 5) and in the midst of an 8-game hitting streak. As he keeps on hitting, he still continues to be one of the more picked up players as he's up to 52%. As long as home runs are not what your specifically targeted, he continues to be a solid option