Thanksgiving is here, time for excessive consumption of food and football:
Packers vs. Lions
An NFC North battle with first place on the line, even if neither of these teams are good at this moment. The Rodgers replacement QB cycle has gone from can't throw (Wallace) to can't throw with any accuracy (Tolzien) to competent (Flynn).
The Lions have had a golden opportunity to take control of the division with the Packers & Bears faltering over the last month and they have done nothing with it. Even though I still don't feel good about the Packers, I have a feeling that the Lions will commit enough boneheaded mistakes and that Flynn will do enough to make it a happy turkey day.
Packers 24 Lions 20
Raiders vs. Cowboys
The Raiders were seconds away from grabbing the 6 seed in the AFC. The Cowboys actually came through in the clutch as Romo led them to a last second victory. In this game, the main interest is at the Fantasy level. Since Kansas City's defense has stopped helping my team ever since they starting playing good QBs (Manning and Rivers) and they play Denver again on Sunday, I scoured the waiver wire looking for a defense with a favorable match up.
This led me to picking up Dallas' defense for a one week trial basis. Granted, McGlonin has shown signs of competency but the Raiders haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard even against mediocre competition.
Cowboys 35 Raiders 17
Steelers vs. Ravens
What is traditionally a strong match up has been reduced to a battle of two of the six teams in the AFC that are currently sitting at 5-6. These teams are the first two in line to grab the 6 seed in the event that the Titans lose. I'm not sold on either team but my gut says the Steelers extend their winning streak to 4 in this one.
Steelers 28 Ravens 20
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
The Buccaneers deserve credit for playing better lately but at this point they are only playing for pride. The Panthers have won seven in a row as Cam Newton has broken through and been one of the more consistent performers on Zeplen's team. I also got Vincent Jackson starting this week so this is definitely one of the games where the more points scored...the better.
Panthers 38 Buccaneers 27
Jaguars vs. Browns
The Jaguars may be horrible but they deserve credit for putting up a fight and staying away from the 0-16 neighborhood that they seem destined to. I think the Browns are a team that they are capable of beating.
Jaguars 17 Browns 10
Titans vs. Colts
If the playoffs were to start today, this would be one of the AFC Wild Card Match Ups. Part of me doesn't want to pick the Colts as they've gone through a rash of inexplicable losses and even had to dig themselves out of a hole against the Titans. The other part of me doesn't want to pick the Titans because they are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's enough for me to pick the Colts.
Colts 24 Titans 17
Bears vs. Vikings
The Bears (along with the Lions) have failed to take advantage of the NFC North created by Aaron Rodgers' mustache and broken clavicle. On paper, the Bears should win this one easily but this feels like one of those games that they find a way to not win.
Vikings 21 Bears 20
Dolphins vs. Jets
A battle of two teams that are both a colossal train wrecks but inexplicably still have legitimate playoff hopes. Since the Jets have broken their win-loss-win-loss cycle, this can't be used to pick for or against them. Going with the Dolphins since I think Tannehill will have a better game than Geno Smith.
Dolphins 21 Jets 14
Cardinals vs. Eagles
A battle of two teams while playing strongly lately, are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. The Cardinals offense has started to come around to complement what was already a strong offense. The Eagles have found a nice groove for now between Nick Foles and Chip Kelly's offense. A case could be made for either team to win but the fact that the Cardinals have a much stronger defense puts them over the top here.
Cardinals 31 Eagles 20
Patriots vs. Texans
Yeah, the Patriots should be careful to not overlook their next opponent after a thrilling comeback victory. But since they're playing the Texas they should be fine even if they don't bring their A game.
Patriots 35 Texans 24
Falcons vs. Bills
Congratulations to the Atlanta Falcons who are the only team to get mathematically eliminated from the Playoffs before thanksgiving. The Bills may be mathematically alive but being the 14th ranked team in the AFC, its only a matter of time before they too are eliminated.
Bills 21 Falcons 10
Rams vs. 49ers
The Rams are a tough team to figure out. They give off the vibe of being a terrible team but have managed to score some nice wins as they begin to utilize Tavon Austin. They have given the 49ers trouble over the last couple of years and just because they beat the Redskins doesn't mean they've figured things out. Things could begin to get dicier for the 49ers going forward.
Rams 31 49ers 17
Broncos vs. Chiefs
The battle for AFC West supremacy here. The Chiefs got off to a nice start (along with their defense) and then their schedule got difficult. Look for a nice bounce back from Peyton Manning in this one.
Broncos 42 Chiefs 21
Bengals vs. Chargers
The Bengals are hoping to sneak into the #3 seed while the Chargers are just trying to sneak in period. Rivers and the Chargers seem poised for a late season surge and the Bengals got them at the wrong time.
Chargers 38 Bengals 24
Giants vs. Redskins
I'm surprised this didn't get flexed out of the NBC game. With Eli Manning going up against RGIII expect to see plenty of sloppy QB play.
Giants 21 Redskins 10
Saints vs. Seahawks
A Monday night match up that is compelling and could be crucial to whether Zeplen's team goes to 7-6 as I have both Pierre Thomas and Jimmy Graham starting. This could be a possible NFC Championship game preview as these teams are currently the top two seeds in the NFC. Going with the Seahawks here mainly due to the home field advantage.
Seahawks 35 Saints 28
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
College Football Turkey Day Weekend Preview
With the short week, we're condensing the Weekday & Weekend College Football action into one post.
Western Michigan vs. (14) Northern Illinois
The third consecutive mid-week game for Northern Illinois. Over the last couple weeks two of the league's better teams (Toledo & Ball State) gave them their best shot but fell well short. If they can't do it, a Western Michigan team that barely beat UMass for their only win ain't getting it done.
Northern Illinois 56 Western Michigan 10
Oregon State vs. (13) Oregon
The yearly Civil War that has a lot less at stake with Oregon's struggles over the last few weeks. Oregon has effectively played their way out of a chance to win the Pac 12 while Oregon State is going to a low-level bowl game regardless of the results. Personally, I think Oregon may be going through the motions and is highly vulnerable to an upset.
Oregon State 49 Oregon 35
(16) Fresno State vs. San Jose State
San Jose State is basically playing out the string to end a very disappointing season while Fresno State still has high aspirations to play in a BCS bowl game. In theory Fresno State should be getting the best shot from their opponents but they have enough struggles holding their opposition to 55 or less.
Fresno State 63 San Jose State 34
Arkansas vs. (17) LSU
Last year, Brett Bielema left Wisconsin out of the blue for the SEC and Arkansas. He has yet to win a conference game while Wisconsin is rolling on to another solid season. They do not get their first SEC win in this one.
LSU 49 Arkansas 10
South Florida vs. (19) UCF
Even by the low standards of the American Athletic Conference, South Florida is not very good (even though they did somehow beat Cincinnati). Don't count on them getting another upset against UCF.
UCF 42 South Florida 14
(1) Alabama vs. (4) Auburn
In the state of Alabama, this is already the game of the year. In college football, this very well could be the game of the year. I think Auburn somehow pulls off the win here and throws all of College Football into a state of chaos and anarchy. This will be an Iron Bowl for the ages.
Auburn 42 Alabama 39 (2 OT)
(2) Florida State vs. Florida
One thing I don't like is how some schools (SEC) cough cough sorta game the system by paying an FCS school to take a beating towards the end of the year. When a team like Georgia Southern takes the money, not only wins (like they did against Florida) but do so WITHOUT COMPLETING A PASS....its not funny, its hilarious. Unless your a Florida State fan, there will be nothing hilarious or even exciting about this game.
Florida State 70 Florida 21
(3) Ohio State vs. Michigan
Another rivalry game that has reduced luster due to the mediocrity of one of the teams involved (Michigan). Ohio State definitely has plenty to play for in the event my Auburn vs. Alabama pick comes true.
Ohio State 35 Michigan 0
(21) Texas A & M vs. (5) Missouri
A battle of ex-Big 12 teams who joined the SEC and no one thought they would be good because they weren't dominant in the Big 12 and then they joined the SEC and they actually turned out to be good. In what could be Manziel's last SEC game, don't expect him to go out a winner. Missouri has the much better team and an outside chance to be more than a top-5 team if things break right this weekend.
Missouri 56 Texas A & M 35
(6) Clemson vs. (10) South Carolina
A battle between two very good teams with a penchant for losing games they shouldn't (historically) that is getting very little attention for a match up between two top 10 teams.
Clemson 42 South Carolina 28
(25) Notre Dame vs. (8) Stanford
This was a first round match up in the Mock 32. While Notre Dame has showed enough that they may be a consistently good team under Brian Kelly (if not necessarily a championship contender), Stanford just has the better team.
Stanford 27 Notre Dame 24
(9) Baylor vs. TCU
It turns out that Baylor can be stopped (along with their title aspirations). They also have a pretty terrible TCU team to take out all of their frustration on. This one isn't going to be pretty.
Baylor 77 TCU 10
Minnesota vs. (11) Michigan State
Minnesota showed that they have been a better team than usual this year (despite a loss to Wisconsin). I think Minnesota puts up a fight against Michigan State but fall short again in an attempt to upset a top-25 opponent. That still shouldn't take away from the progress their team made this year.
Michigan State 24 Minnesota 7
Arizona vs. (12) Arizona State
Not sure how to pick this one. On the one hand Arizona is coming off a blowout win over Oregon and proved themselves capable of betting top teams (such as Arizona State). On the other side of the coin, Arizona State is this close to playing in the PAC 12 title game and they don't strike me as a team that would take this for granted. Arizona State wins this one, but its not going to be easy.
Arizona State 56 Arizona 49
Penn State vs. (15) Wisconsin
Penn State has been a pretty average team this year and Wisconsin has beaten the teams they should beat and at least didn't embarrass themselves in the two games they lost. Wisconsin rolls to a win behind their loaded running attack.
Wisconsin 49 Penn State 21
(22) UCLA vs. (23) USC
Two teams located in the greater LA area and ranked very close to each other in the rankings, both getting there in opposite ways. UCLA got off to a nice start with the help of an easy early schedule but started to struggle once they competition level increased, USC was destined towards a train wreck 5-7 season before Lane Kiffin got fired in the parking lot at LAX. Even if Ed Orgeron does not get hired by USC, the job he has done will get him a head coaching gig somewhere.
USC 35 UCLA 24
(24) Duke vs. North Carolina
With this match up, you would almost expect Dick Vitale & Digger Phelps to be calling this game. In all seriousness, Duke's football team deserves a lot of credit for having their most successful season in a long time. All they have to do is win this game to earn the right to lose to Florida State in the ACC Championship game.
Duke 38 North Carolina 21
Western Michigan vs. (14) Northern Illinois
The third consecutive mid-week game for Northern Illinois. Over the last couple weeks two of the league's better teams (Toledo & Ball State) gave them their best shot but fell well short. If they can't do it, a Western Michigan team that barely beat UMass for their only win ain't getting it done.
Northern Illinois 56 Western Michigan 10
Oregon State vs. (13) Oregon
The yearly Civil War that has a lot less at stake with Oregon's struggles over the last few weeks. Oregon has effectively played their way out of a chance to win the Pac 12 while Oregon State is going to a low-level bowl game regardless of the results. Personally, I think Oregon may be going through the motions and is highly vulnerable to an upset.
Oregon State 49 Oregon 35
(16) Fresno State vs. San Jose State
San Jose State is basically playing out the string to end a very disappointing season while Fresno State still has high aspirations to play in a BCS bowl game. In theory Fresno State should be getting the best shot from their opponents but they have enough struggles holding their opposition to 55 or less.
Fresno State 63 San Jose State 34
Arkansas vs. (17) LSU
Last year, Brett Bielema left Wisconsin out of the blue for the SEC and Arkansas. He has yet to win a conference game while Wisconsin is rolling on to another solid season. They do not get their first SEC win in this one.
LSU 49 Arkansas 10
South Florida vs. (19) UCF
Even by the low standards of the American Athletic Conference, South Florida is not very good (even though they did somehow beat Cincinnati). Don't count on them getting another upset against UCF.
UCF 42 South Florida 14
(1) Alabama vs. (4) Auburn
In the state of Alabama, this is already the game of the year. In college football, this very well could be the game of the year. I think Auburn somehow pulls off the win here and throws all of College Football into a state of chaos and anarchy. This will be an Iron Bowl for the ages.
Auburn 42 Alabama 39 (2 OT)
(2) Florida State vs. Florida
One thing I don't like is how some schools (SEC) cough cough sorta game the system by paying an FCS school to take a beating towards the end of the year. When a team like Georgia Southern takes the money, not only wins (like they did against Florida) but do so WITHOUT COMPLETING A PASS....its not funny, its hilarious. Unless your a Florida State fan, there will be nothing hilarious or even exciting about this game.
Florida State 70 Florida 21
(3) Ohio State vs. Michigan
Another rivalry game that has reduced luster due to the mediocrity of one of the teams involved (Michigan). Ohio State definitely has plenty to play for in the event my Auburn vs. Alabama pick comes true.
Ohio State 35 Michigan 0
(21) Texas A & M vs. (5) Missouri
A battle of ex-Big 12 teams who joined the SEC and no one thought they would be good because they weren't dominant in the Big 12 and then they joined the SEC and they actually turned out to be good. In what could be Manziel's last SEC game, don't expect him to go out a winner. Missouri has the much better team and an outside chance to be more than a top-5 team if things break right this weekend.
Missouri 56 Texas A & M 35
(6) Clemson vs. (10) South Carolina
A battle between two very good teams with a penchant for losing games they shouldn't (historically) that is getting very little attention for a match up between two top 10 teams.
Clemson 42 South Carolina 28
(25) Notre Dame vs. (8) Stanford
This was a first round match up in the Mock 32. While Notre Dame has showed enough that they may be a consistently good team under Brian Kelly (if not necessarily a championship contender), Stanford just has the better team.
Stanford 27 Notre Dame 24
(9) Baylor vs. TCU
It turns out that Baylor can be stopped (along with their title aspirations). They also have a pretty terrible TCU team to take out all of their frustration on. This one isn't going to be pretty.
Baylor 77 TCU 10
Minnesota vs. (11) Michigan State
Minnesota showed that they have been a better team than usual this year (despite a loss to Wisconsin). I think Minnesota puts up a fight against Michigan State but fall short again in an attempt to upset a top-25 opponent. That still shouldn't take away from the progress their team made this year.
Michigan State 24 Minnesota 7
Arizona vs. (12) Arizona State
Not sure how to pick this one. On the one hand Arizona is coming off a blowout win over Oregon and proved themselves capable of betting top teams (such as Arizona State). On the other side of the coin, Arizona State is this close to playing in the PAC 12 title game and they don't strike me as a team that would take this for granted. Arizona State wins this one, but its not going to be easy.
Arizona State 56 Arizona 49
Penn State vs. (15) Wisconsin
Penn State has been a pretty average team this year and Wisconsin has beaten the teams they should beat and at least didn't embarrass themselves in the two games they lost. Wisconsin rolls to a win behind their loaded running attack.
Wisconsin 49 Penn State 21
(22) UCLA vs. (23) USC
Two teams located in the greater LA area and ranked very close to each other in the rankings, both getting there in opposite ways. UCLA got off to a nice start with the help of an easy early schedule but started to struggle once they competition level increased, USC was destined towards a train wreck 5-7 season before Lane Kiffin got fired in the parking lot at LAX. Even if Ed Orgeron does not get hired by USC, the job he has done will get him a head coaching gig somewhere.
USC 35 UCLA 24
(24) Duke vs. North Carolina
With this match up, you would almost expect Dick Vitale & Digger Phelps to be calling this game. In all seriousness, Duke's football team deserves a lot of credit for having their most successful season in a long time. All they have to do is win this game to earn the right to lose to Florida State in the ACC Championship game.
Duke 38 North Carolina 21
Monday, November 25, 2013
The Mock 32: 11/25 Edition
Time to see who would win a mock 32 team NCAA Football tournament if it were to start today. As usual, based off the AP Rankings.
1-Alabama
32-Minnesota
16-Fresno State
17-UCF
8-Stanford
25-Notre Dame
9-Baylor
24-Duke
4-Auburn
29-Ole Miss
13-Arizona State
22- UCLA
5-Missouri
28-Texas
12-Oregon
21-Louisville
3-Ohio State
30-Arizona
14-Wisconsin
19-Texas A&M
6-Clemson
27-Cincinnati
11-Michigan State
22-UCLA
7-Oklahoma State
26-Georgia
10-South Carolina
23-USC
2-Florida State
31-Nebraska
15-LSU
18-Northern Illinois
On to who I think would win these match ups.
Alabama over Minnesota - Minnesota probably would need to upset Michigan State to stay in field
Fresno State over UCF in non BCS league elimination game
Stanford over Notre Dame in match up that happens in real life Saturday
Baylor over Duke --Baylor's stock is down after loss to OSU but they would take care of business here
Auburn over Ole Miss in SEC Elimination Game
Arizona State over UCLA in rematch from Saturday
Missouri over Texas in what would have been Big 12 elimination game up until a couple years ago
Louisville over Oregon, first upset of first round
Arizona over Ohio State in first major shocker. Arizona took down Oregon...Pac 12 would have them more battle tested
Texas A & M over Wisconsin...I think Wisconsin has the better team but not Manziel
Cincinnati over Clemson...Clemsoning at its finest
Michigan State over UCLA..UCLA would offer little resistance
Oklahoma State over Georgia...OSU showing it has what it takes to ruin perfect seasons
USC over South Carolina..Battle of two teams w USC as acronym
Florida State over Nebraska..The Seat gets warmer for Bo Pellini
LSU over Northern Illinois..MACtion ends here
Now to the round of 16:
Alabama over Fresno State...No mid major upset here
Stanford over Baylor....Battle of two teams with crippling losses over last couple weeks
Auburn over Arizona State..ASU has made some great strides but their run ends here
Missouri over Louisville...Setting up SEC battle royal
Texas A & M over Arizona...Arizona got lucky with one favorable match up but not two
Michigan State over Cincinnati....Pretty one sided game
Oklahoma State over USC...Took most of the season but finally sold on the Cowboys
Florida State over LSU....Probably FSU's last win of tourney
The Elite Eight:
Alabama over Stanford....SEC Dominance Continues
Auburn over Missouri....Pretty close match up that could go either way
Michigan State over Texas A & M....It helps to play defense
Oklahoma State over Florida State....OSU w/formula to stop high powered offense
Final Four:
Auburn over Alabama...Iron Bowl II....The whole state of Alabama on edge with national title on the line
Oklahoma State over Michigan State....Leading to a final that no one would predict
This week's king of the hill of the Mock 32 stays in the state of Alabama but transfers over to Auburn who beats Oklahoma State in the final.....stay tuned as the results are likely to be different next week.
1-Alabama
32-Minnesota
16-Fresno State
17-UCF
8-Stanford
25-Notre Dame
9-Baylor
24-Duke
4-Auburn
29-Ole Miss
13-Arizona State
22- UCLA
5-Missouri
28-Texas
12-Oregon
21-Louisville
3-Ohio State
30-Arizona
14-Wisconsin
19-Texas A&M
6-Clemson
27-Cincinnati
11-Michigan State
22-UCLA
7-Oklahoma State
26-Georgia
10-South Carolina
23-USC
2-Florida State
31-Nebraska
15-LSU
18-Northern Illinois
On to who I think would win these match ups.
Alabama over Minnesota - Minnesota probably would need to upset Michigan State to stay in field
Fresno State over UCF in non BCS league elimination game
Stanford over Notre Dame in match up that happens in real life Saturday
Baylor over Duke --Baylor's stock is down after loss to OSU but they would take care of business here
Auburn over Ole Miss in SEC Elimination Game
Arizona State over UCLA in rematch from Saturday
Missouri over Texas in what would have been Big 12 elimination game up until a couple years ago
Louisville over Oregon, first upset of first round
Arizona over Ohio State in first major shocker. Arizona took down Oregon...Pac 12 would have them more battle tested
Texas A & M over Wisconsin...I think Wisconsin has the better team but not Manziel
Cincinnati over Clemson...Clemsoning at its finest
Michigan State over UCLA..UCLA would offer little resistance
Oklahoma State over Georgia...OSU showing it has what it takes to ruin perfect seasons
USC over South Carolina..Battle of two teams w USC as acronym
Florida State over Nebraska..The Seat gets warmer for Bo Pellini
LSU over Northern Illinois..MACtion ends here
Now to the round of 16:
Alabama over Fresno State...No mid major upset here
Stanford over Baylor....Battle of two teams with crippling losses over last couple weeks
Auburn over Arizona State..ASU has made some great strides but their run ends here
Missouri over Louisville...Setting up SEC battle royal
Texas A & M over Arizona...Arizona got lucky with one favorable match up but not two
Michigan State over Cincinnati....Pretty one sided game
Oklahoma State over USC...Took most of the season but finally sold on the Cowboys
Florida State over LSU....Probably FSU's last win of tourney
The Elite Eight:
Alabama over Stanford....SEC Dominance Continues
Auburn over Missouri....Pretty close match up that could go either way
Michigan State over Texas A & M....It helps to play defense
Oklahoma State over Florida State....OSU w/formula to stop high powered offense
Final Four:
Auburn over Alabama...Iron Bowl II....The whole state of Alabama on edge with national title on the line
Oklahoma State over Michigan State....Leading to a final that no one would predict
This week's king of the hill of the Mock 32 stays in the state of Alabama but transfers over to Auburn who beats Oklahoma State in the final.....stay tuned as the results are likely to be different next week.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Week 12 of the NFL, here we come
With the Thursday night game out of the way, time to shift focus on to the rest of the weekend.
Ravens vs. Jets
This may not be a match up between two high quality teams. However, it is a game that commands our attention because this has implications on the last playoff seed in the AFC. If the playoffs were to start today the Jets win out on tiebreaker over the Dolphins at 5-5 with the Ravens being one of five teams at 4-6. If the Jets and Dolphins both lose this weekend we could be one step closer to a major tie breaker quagmire. However, since the Jets lost last weekend and are on the every other week plan, they'll probably mess this up and win on Sunday.
Jets 21 Ravens 10
Steelers vs. Browns
A battle between two of the aforementioned 4-6 cluster of teams in the AFC that only have playoff aspirations due to the Jets mediocrity. This is a game where i'm not high on either team and this game is likely to be poorly played but someone has to win. My pick is for that team to be the Steelers.
Steelers 28 Browns 14
Buccaneers vs Lions
The Buccaneers finally showed what they are capable of by handily beating the Falcons (with a major assist from Vincent Jackson who helped Zeplen's team improve to 6-5). Even though they're still terrible, i'm not quite sure i'm sold on the Lions winning games that they should. Despite a strong first half, I felt they played down to the level of their competition. My gut feeling is they're catching Tampa at the right time and they're not preparing adequately to win.
Buccaneers 31 Lions 28
Vikings vs. Packers
So, the Packers have turned into a Vikings caliber team. Both teams come into this game starting mediocre QBs but are either elite (Peterson) or surprisingly competent (Lacy) in the running game. For the Packers, this is a must win while the Vikings would like nothing more than to kick the Packers while they are down. Scott Tolzein has shown some flashes of brilliance and some decent arm strength but can't seem to keep way from the INTs. Until Rodgers comes back, I can't justify picking the Packers to win a game.
Vikings 35 Packers 14
Jaguars vs. Texans
If this was opposite world, were losses were wins this would be a potential match up for the AFC Championship game. As it stands, this game is a battle for 15th seed in the AFC and for top draft positioning. Everything about this game screams unwatchable.
Texans 13 Jaguars 7
Chargers vs. Chiefs
The Chargers have a chance to go to 5-6 and hope the Jets and Dolphins come back to join a giant cluster. In reality, this is another opportunity for the Chargers to stay close in a game but find a way to lose by 7 points or less.
Chiefs 27 Chargers 24
Panthers vs. Dolphins
The Panthers keep on rolling coming off a close win over the Niners and a controversial win over the Patriots. What hasn't been controversial is that Cam Newton has helped Zeplen's team stay in the playoff hunt especially after a strong showing on Monday. The Panthers seem to be my double down team of the week as I also picked up Brandon LaFell on the waiver wire this week. As for the Dolphins, i'm pretty sure nobody wants them to win a game at this point.
Panthers 38 Dolphins 10
Bears vs. Rams
The Bears are sitting at 6-4 and have a decent shot at the playoffs (even if they haven't been that impressive and are having to rely on their backup who has been doing a surprisingly decent job. The Rams are in a battle with the Giants for the 11th seed in the NFC without the ability to benefit from a highly incompetent division. Neither of these teams are great but the Bears have more motivation to play for.
Bears 23 Rams 17
Colts vs. Cardinals
One of the more under-rated matchups of the weekend. The Cardinals under first year coach Bruce Arians (who served as interim coach of the Colts last year) brings a team that is fighting for the last spot that is being carried by a strong defense. Maybe if they gave Ellington the ball more, maybe that would help improve things on the offensive end (it keeps the ball out of Carson Palmer's hand).
The Colts are having a strong follow up to their playoff appearance last year (even if many people thought they would regress to average this year). Currently, they are battling New England & Cincinnati for playoff positioning to get the first week bye. While I think the Colts are the better team, I think the Cardinals find a way to pull this off as they have a higher sense of urgency.
Cardinals 24 Colts 14
Titans vs. Raiders
The only thing compelling about this is this gives both teams a chance to be in the 5-6 free for all in case the Jets lose. Not sure how relevant it is since both teams are likely going 7-9 in the best case scenario. Gonna go with the Titans on this one.
Titans 17 Raiders 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Two teams that are only slightly better than the Titans and Raiders but have a lot more to play for due to the NFC East being absolutely terrible. Momentum seems to be on the Giants side as they've won four in a row and have a history of making out of nowhere runs. This is also the type of important game where the Cowboys come up short.
Giants 31 Cowboys 24
Broncos vs. Patriots
On to the Sunday Night match up. The Broncos are coming off a key win over the Chiefs and Tom Brady is coming off a loss to the Panthers and the refs from said game. My instinct is that Tom Brady channels that anger productively and makes this game more one sided than expected.
Patriots 45 Broncos 28
49ers vs. Redskins
Might as well be called the under-performing QB bowl. The 49ers are struggling to maintain playoff positioning. Not ideal, but at least they're not in self destruct mode like their opponenet.
49ers 21 Redskins 10
Ravens vs. Jets
This may not be a match up between two high quality teams. However, it is a game that commands our attention because this has implications on the last playoff seed in the AFC. If the playoffs were to start today the Jets win out on tiebreaker over the Dolphins at 5-5 with the Ravens being one of five teams at 4-6. If the Jets and Dolphins both lose this weekend we could be one step closer to a major tie breaker quagmire. However, since the Jets lost last weekend and are on the every other week plan, they'll probably mess this up and win on Sunday.
Jets 21 Ravens 10
Steelers vs. Browns
A battle between two of the aforementioned 4-6 cluster of teams in the AFC that only have playoff aspirations due to the Jets mediocrity. This is a game where i'm not high on either team and this game is likely to be poorly played but someone has to win. My pick is for that team to be the Steelers.
Steelers 28 Browns 14
Buccaneers vs Lions
The Buccaneers finally showed what they are capable of by handily beating the Falcons (with a major assist from Vincent Jackson who helped Zeplen's team improve to 6-5). Even though they're still terrible, i'm not quite sure i'm sold on the Lions winning games that they should. Despite a strong first half, I felt they played down to the level of their competition. My gut feeling is they're catching Tampa at the right time and they're not preparing adequately to win.
Buccaneers 31 Lions 28
Vikings vs. Packers
So, the Packers have turned into a Vikings caliber team. Both teams come into this game starting mediocre QBs but are either elite (Peterson) or surprisingly competent (Lacy) in the running game. For the Packers, this is a must win while the Vikings would like nothing more than to kick the Packers while they are down. Scott Tolzein has shown some flashes of brilliance and some decent arm strength but can't seem to keep way from the INTs. Until Rodgers comes back, I can't justify picking the Packers to win a game.
Vikings 35 Packers 14
Jaguars vs. Texans
If this was opposite world, were losses were wins this would be a potential match up for the AFC Championship game. As it stands, this game is a battle for 15th seed in the AFC and for top draft positioning. Everything about this game screams unwatchable.
Texans 13 Jaguars 7
Chargers vs. Chiefs
The Chargers have a chance to go to 5-6 and hope the Jets and Dolphins come back to join a giant cluster. In reality, this is another opportunity for the Chargers to stay close in a game but find a way to lose by 7 points or less.
Chiefs 27 Chargers 24
Panthers vs. Dolphins
The Panthers keep on rolling coming off a close win over the Niners and a controversial win over the Patriots. What hasn't been controversial is that Cam Newton has helped Zeplen's team stay in the playoff hunt especially after a strong showing on Monday. The Panthers seem to be my double down team of the week as I also picked up Brandon LaFell on the waiver wire this week. As for the Dolphins, i'm pretty sure nobody wants them to win a game at this point.
Panthers 38 Dolphins 10
Bears vs. Rams
The Bears are sitting at 6-4 and have a decent shot at the playoffs (even if they haven't been that impressive and are having to rely on their backup who has been doing a surprisingly decent job. The Rams are in a battle with the Giants for the 11th seed in the NFC without the ability to benefit from a highly incompetent division. Neither of these teams are great but the Bears have more motivation to play for.
Bears 23 Rams 17
Colts vs. Cardinals
One of the more under-rated matchups of the weekend. The Cardinals under first year coach Bruce Arians (who served as interim coach of the Colts last year) brings a team that is fighting for the last spot that is being carried by a strong defense. Maybe if they gave Ellington the ball more, maybe that would help improve things on the offensive end (it keeps the ball out of Carson Palmer's hand).
The Colts are having a strong follow up to their playoff appearance last year (even if many people thought they would regress to average this year). Currently, they are battling New England & Cincinnati for playoff positioning to get the first week bye. While I think the Colts are the better team, I think the Cardinals find a way to pull this off as they have a higher sense of urgency.
Cardinals 24 Colts 14
Titans vs. Raiders
The only thing compelling about this is this gives both teams a chance to be in the 5-6 free for all in case the Jets lose. Not sure how relevant it is since both teams are likely going 7-9 in the best case scenario. Gonna go with the Titans on this one.
Titans 17 Raiders 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Two teams that are only slightly better than the Titans and Raiders but have a lot more to play for due to the NFC East being absolutely terrible. Momentum seems to be on the Giants side as they've won four in a row and have a history of making out of nowhere runs. This is also the type of important game where the Cowboys come up short.
Giants 31 Cowboys 24
Broncos vs. Patriots
On to the Sunday Night match up. The Broncos are coming off a key win over the Chiefs and Tom Brady is coming off a loss to the Panthers and the refs from said game. My instinct is that Tom Brady channels that anger productively and makes this game more one sided than expected.
Patriots 45 Broncos 28
49ers vs. Redskins
Might as well be called the under-performing QB bowl. The 49ers are struggling to maintain playoff positioning. Not ideal, but at least they're not in self destruct mode like their opponenet.
49ers 21 Redskins 10
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Weekend College Football Preview 11/21
The weekend in College Football, lets see what we have in store:
The Citadel vs. (7) Clemson
This is the first of unfortunately several match ups this weekend between FCS teams getting paid to get trounced by top 25 team. If your gonna schedule a FCS team at least schedule one that could possibly put up a fight such as North Dakota State, not one that is floundering at 5-6. For what its worth The Citadel did beat Appalachian State in early October.
Clemson 63 The Citadel 0
Over before it starts
Memphis vs. (21) Louisville
Yeah, this game is likely to also be a rout but its not Louisville's fault that the Big East/American Athletic Conference turned into Conference USA V2.0 which has cupcake teams such as Memphis. Louisville wins this one easily.
Louisville 52 Memphis 21
One Sided
(25) Duke vs. Wake Forest
This is Duke's first weekend as a nationally ranked team in a very long time. They have been impressive in moving up from lucky to win a game to being a very competitive team. Wake Forest's best win came over Maryland this year. This should be a relatively easy win for Duke.
Duke 31 Wake Forest 14
Not the Best Game, Not the Worst
(22) Oklahoma vs. Kansas State
The first game of Saturday that could be compelling. Oklahoma while 8-2, hasn't been that impressive doing so. Kansas State had a rough start to their season but they have been playing well lately. Kansas State is better than their 6-4 record as they have played the best teams in the Big 12 (Oklahoma State & Baylor) pretty tough and have a record of beating teams that seem destined to fall out of the top 25 (Texas Tech). This could be Oklahoma's last weekend as a ranked team.
Kansas State 35 Oklahoma 28
Upset Special #1
(13) Michigan State vs. Northwestern
It seems like only yesterday that Northwestern was 4-0 and fighting Ohio State to the wire. Its been all downhill since there and they have nothing to play for but pride. Michigan State needs to take care of business and work towards getting to the Big 10 Championship game and a possible BCS bowl appearance. I think Northwestern puts up a fight but falls short.
Michigan State 28 Northwestern 17
Better than Expected
Coastal Carolina vs. (12) South Carolina
At least South Carolina picked a good FCS (10-1) team to go up against. Maybe they put up a fight maybe not.
South Carolina 35 Coastal Carolina 0
One Sided
Chattanooga vs. (1) Alabama
The Chattanooga mocs are 8-3 and have zero chance to make that 9-3.
Alabama 56 Chattanooga 3
Idaho vs. (2) Florida State
At least Florida State picked a FBS cupcake to pick on. They beat Temple by 2 for their only win for what its worth
Florida State 70 Idaho 3
Indiana vs. (4) Ohio State
Yeah, we got ourselves another lopsided game. Can't blame Ohio State for this one and the Big 10 being down in general. Indiana's best win this year is against Penn State. Too bad for them that Ohio State is a much better opponent.
Ohio State 70 Indiana 17
(9) Texas A & M vs. (18) LSU
Finally got ourselves a good game after wading through the FCS/Idaho clunkers. Got ourselves a good QB battle between potential first round picks. Don't expect much in the way of defense and for LSU fans to be frustrated at getting their fourth loss of the season.
Texas A & M 56 LSU 42
(16) Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
The Battle of Paul Bunyan's axe is looking to be much more compelling than expected due to a Minnesota resurgence. While Minnesota has benefited from a pretty easy schedule (three best wins against Nebraska, Penn State & San Jose State), they next two weeks (vs. Wisconsin & Michigan State) will reveal whether they are better than usual or much, much better than usual. This is likely one of the better games of the afternoon but I don't see it resulting in an upset.
Wisconsin 42 Minnesota 31
Better than Expected
(5) Oregon vs. Arizona
Oregon continues working on the path of getting the Pac 12 championship and even more (if things somehow evolve into chaos over the next couple weeks. Arizona continues on the path of being the good bad team that can beat the bottom feeders but struggles immensely against the better teams.
Oregon 56 Arizona 28
One Sided Game
California vs. (10) Stanford
Yeah, this is one of the more historical rivalry games. This year, it just seems to be another game between an elite team versus a very awful team on what is basically one-sided Saturday. Cal's only win was a 7 point win over Portland State, I somehow don't see them getting win number 2 out of the blue.
Stanford 49 California 3
Great Rivalry, Not so Great Game
New Mexico vs. (15) Fresno State
New Mexico may not be great but they are capable of putting points on the board (even if they give them up at a much faster pace). Fresno State still has the chance to play in a BCS bowl game and everyone's trying to knock them down. If that happens its going to be to a better team.
Fresno State 56 New Mexico 35
Offense, Offense & More Offense
(19) Arizona State vs. (14) UCLA
A battle of two good but not great PAC-12 Teams that has major implications on who gets to go to the PAC-12 championship game. In the Mock 32 from Monday, this was the first round match up where I picked Arizona State, I stand by an Arizona State win on Saturday.
Arizona State 49 UCLA 42
One of Better Games of Week
(8) Missouri vs. (24) Ole Miss
While Ole Miss is a good team, I think that Missouri still comes away with the victory here as they have a higher incentive (SEC East lead and the right to lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game).
Missouri 42 Ole Miss 28
Closer than the final score indicates
(3) Baylor vs. (11) Oklahoma State
In what could amount to the BIG 12 game of the year (since the last one). As the season rolls on and Baylor is getting to and beating opponents that are capable of winning games, its looking more and more like Baylor is legitimately an elite team. Hopefully, they can win out catch a break and have a chance to show what they can do in the title game.
Baylor 56 Oklahoma State 21
Baylor dominance makes game not as good as hyped
(23) USC vs. Colorado
USC is coming off a huge win over Stanford. Typically, there would be the risk of having a letdown hangover game (sort of like what Stanford had in last weekends game) but that risk is lowered substantially as they get a Colorado team whos only conference win was over Cal.
USC 56 Colorado 21
One Sided
The Citadel vs. (7) Clemson
This is the first of unfortunately several match ups this weekend between FCS teams getting paid to get trounced by top 25 team. If your gonna schedule a FCS team at least schedule one that could possibly put up a fight such as North Dakota State, not one that is floundering at 5-6. For what its worth The Citadel did beat Appalachian State in early October.
Clemson 63 The Citadel 0
Over before it starts
Memphis vs. (21) Louisville
Yeah, this game is likely to also be a rout but its not Louisville's fault that the Big East/American Athletic Conference turned into Conference USA V2.0 which has cupcake teams such as Memphis. Louisville wins this one easily.
Louisville 52 Memphis 21
One Sided
(25) Duke vs. Wake Forest
This is Duke's first weekend as a nationally ranked team in a very long time. They have been impressive in moving up from lucky to win a game to being a very competitive team. Wake Forest's best win came over Maryland this year. This should be a relatively easy win for Duke.
Duke 31 Wake Forest 14
Not the Best Game, Not the Worst
(22) Oklahoma vs. Kansas State
The first game of Saturday that could be compelling. Oklahoma while 8-2, hasn't been that impressive doing so. Kansas State had a rough start to their season but they have been playing well lately. Kansas State is better than their 6-4 record as they have played the best teams in the Big 12 (Oklahoma State & Baylor) pretty tough and have a record of beating teams that seem destined to fall out of the top 25 (Texas Tech). This could be Oklahoma's last weekend as a ranked team.
Kansas State 35 Oklahoma 28
Upset Special #1
(13) Michigan State vs. Northwestern
It seems like only yesterday that Northwestern was 4-0 and fighting Ohio State to the wire. Its been all downhill since there and they have nothing to play for but pride. Michigan State needs to take care of business and work towards getting to the Big 10 Championship game and a possible BCS bowl appearance. I think Northwestern puts up a fight but falls short.
Michigan State 28 Northwestern 17
Better than Expected
Coastal Carolina vs. (12) South Carolina
At least South Carolina picked a good FCS (10-1) team to go up against. Maybe they put up a fight maybe not.
South Carolina 35 Coastal Carolina 0
One Sided
Chattanooga vs. (1) Alabama
The Chattanooga mocs are 8-3 and have zero chance to make that 9-3.
Alabama 56 Chattanooga 3
Idaho vs. (2) Florida State
At least Florida State picked a FBS cupcake to pick on. They beat Temple by 2 for their only win for what its worth
Florida State 70 Idaho 3
Indiana vs. (4) Ohio State
Yeah, we got ourselves another lopsided game. Can't blame Ohio State for this one and the Big 10 being down in general. Indiana's best win this year is against Penn State. Too bad for them that Ohio State is a much better opponent.
Ohio State 70 Indiana 17
(9) Texas A & M vs. (18) LSU
Finally got ourselves a good game after wading through the FCS/Idaho clunkers. Got ourselves a good QB battle between potential first round picks. Don't expect much in the way of defense and for LSU fans to be frustrated at getting their fourth loss of the season.
Texas A & M 56 LSU 42
(16) Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
The Battle of Paul Bunyan's axe is looking to be much more compelling than expected due to a Minnesota resurgence. While Minnesota has benefited from a pretty easy schedule (three best wins against Nebraska, Penn State & San Jose State), they next two weeks (vs. Wisconsin & Michigan State) will reveal whether they are better than usual or much, much better than usual. This is likely one of the better games of the afternoon but I don't see it resulting in an upset.
Wisconsin 42 Minnesota 31
Better than Expected
(5) Oregon vs. Arizona
Oregon continues working on the path of getting the Pac 12 championship and even more (if things somehow evolve into chaos over the next couple weeks. Arizona continues on the path of being the good bad team that can beat the bottom feeders but struggles immensely against the better teams.
Oregon 56 Arizona 28
One Sided Game
California vs. (10) Stanford
Yeah, this is one of the more historical rivalry games. This year, it just seems to be another game between an elite team versus a very awful team on what is basically one-sided Saturday. Cal's only win was a 7 point win over Portland State, I somehow don't see them getting win number 2 out of the blue.
Stanford 49 California 3
Great Rivalry, Not so Great Game
New Mexico vs. (15) Fresno State
New Mexico may not be great but they are capable of putting points on the board (even if they give them up at a much faster pace). Fresno State still has the chance to play in a BCS bowl game and everyone's trying to knock them down. If that happens its going to be to a better team.
Fresno State 56 New Mexico 35
Offense, Offense & More Offense
(19) Arizona State vs. (14) UCLA
A battle of two good but not great PAC-12 Teams that has major implications on who gets to go to the PAC-12 championship game. In the Mock 32 from Monday, this was the first round match up where I picked Arizona State, I stand by an Arizona State win on Saturday.
Arizona State 49 UCLA 42
One of Better Games of Week
(8) Missouri vs. (24) Ole Miss
While Ole Miss is a good team, I think that Missouri still comes away with the victory here as they have a higher incentive (SEC East lead and the right to lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game).
Missouri 42 Ole Miss 28
Closer than the final score indicates
(3) Baylor vs. (11) Oklahoma State
In what could amount to the BIG 12 game of the year (since the last one). As the season rolls on and Baylor is getting to and beating opponents that are capable of winning games, its looking more and more like Baylor is legitimately an elite team. Hopefully, they can win out catch a break and have a chance to show what they can do in the title game.
Baylor 56 Oklahoma State 21
Baylor dominance makes game not as good as hyped
(23) USC vs. Colorado
USC is coming off a huge win over Stanford. Typically, there would be the risk of having a letdown hangover game (sort of like what Stanford had in last weekends game) but that risk is lowered substantially as they get a Colorado team whos only conference win was over Cal.
USC 56 Colorado 21
One Sided
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Weeknight Football Preview 11-20
Getting caught up with this week's weeknight football action:
(20) Northern Illinois vs. Toledo
Another mid-week episode of MACtion and another week where Northern Illinois will have to hold their ground against a team that would like nothing more than to eliminate Northern Illinois' hope of playing in a high level bowl game.
Toledo is bringing in a pretty strong team to the Glass Bowl and I don't think they would be intimidated by things such as national ranking and undefeated record. Northern Illinois isn't even the best team they've faced all year (that honor goes to Missouri) and they aren't shy about lighting up the scoreboard (45+ points in four of their last five).
Ultimately, I think Toledo falls short but they make things very interesting in the process.
Northern Illinois 56 Toledo 45
Rutgers vs. (17) UCF
The other ranked weeknight action involves another team in a middling conference that still has legitimate hopes to play in one of the BCS bowl games. Unlike Toledo, Rutgers hasn't been that good of a team but if things fall right they could pull off a massive upset (they nearly took down Fresno State to start the season). Since UCF almost lost to Temple, I originally was going to pick Rutgers but they have been underwhelming lately and they themselves didn't exactly dominate Temple (winning 23-20).
UCF 35 Rutgers 17
Saints vs. Falcons
This match up looked MUCH more enticing when the season started (NFL Network can't be too happy with this one). With the Falcons floundering towards a top draft pick, my only incentive to pay attention is to see if Jimmy Graham will have a big game.
Saints 31 Falcons 10
(20) Northern Illinois vs. Toledo
Another mid-week episode of MACtion and another week where Northern Illinois will have to hold their ground against a team that would like nothing more than to eliminate Northern Illinois' hope of playing in a high level bowl game.
Toledo is bringing in a pretty strong team to the Glass Bowl and I don't think they would be intimidated by things such as national ranking and undefeated record. Northern Illinois isn't even the best team they've faced all year (that honor goes to Missouri) and they aren't shy about lighting up the scoreboard (45+ points in four of their last five).
Ultimately, I think Toledo falls short but they make things very interesting in the process.
Northern Illinois 56 Toledo 45
Rutgers vs. (17) UCF
The other ranked weeknight action involves another team in a middling conference that still has legitimate hopes to play in one of the BCS bowl games. Unlike Toledo, Rutgers hasn't been that good of a team but if things fall right they could pull off a massive upset (they nearly took down Fresno State to start the season). Since UCF almost lost to Temple, I originally was going to pick Rutgers but they have been underwhelming lately and they themselves didn't exactly dominate Temple (winning 23-20).
UCF 35 Rutgers 17
Saints vs. Falcons
This match up looked MUCH more enticing when the season started (NFL Network can't be too happy with this one). With the Falcons floundering towards a top draft pick, my only incentive to pay attention is to see if Jimmy Graham will have a big game.
Saints 31 Falcons 10
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Do They Belong in the Hall: Lieber, Lo Duca, Loaiza, Maddux
And now,on to our continuing series of Do They Belong In the Hall
Jon Lieber:
In the movie Idiocracy, a very average man is set to be cryogenically frozen for a year only for it to be forgotten and to wake up 500 years in the future to find himself to be the smartest man in the universe. If they would have sent a baseball player instead, it may have been Jon Lieber and his 103 ERA+ and .514 winning percentage.
While he was always a solid contributor, he never really stood out (in either a good or bad way). Even the one year perceived to be good (2001 where he finished fourth in Cy Young Voting) had more to do with him stumbling into 20 wins than having one good season (109 ERA+, 5.7 SO/9).
A lot of his similar players are still active (Lohse, Arroyo, Haren) but none of them are in the hall of fame discussion.
Verdict: No
Paul Lo Duca:
Didn't start playing regularly until 29 when he had his best season .320/.374/.543. From there, he put up average production and somehow was an all-star on four separate occasions. On the similarity scores list, Yuniesky Betancourt ranks #10.
Verdict: No
Esteban Loaiza
A slightly worse version of Jon Lieber, a relatively average pitcher who managed to stick around for a good while. The only differences are in extremes. Loaiza had quite a few seasons where he was not very good. On the other side, he had one season (2003) where he was legitimately very good and came very close to being one of the more random Cy Young award winners in recent history. They also have the connecting link of having Kyle Lohse being the most similar pitcher to them career wise.
Verdict: No
Greg Maddux:
What is there to say that hasn't already been said about Greg Maddux. He was heads and shoulders the most dominant pitcher from about 1992-1998. While the record books were being re-written on the offensive side, all Maddux was doing was getting players out left and right.
By common sense measures, he should be voted in on all 100% of ballots but it will be more like 97%-98% since there are some hard core voters out there that think the vote should never be unanimous. On a side note, his brother Mike while not a hall of fame pitcher turned out to be one of the greatest pitching coaches of this generation.
By all measures available on Baseball-Reference, Maddux should have no problem getting into the hall of fame. Out of his 10 most similar pitchers, nine of them are already in the Hall of Fame and the 10th one should be (Clemens) at some point in the near future.
Verdict: Yes
Jon Lieber:
In the movie Idiocracy, a very average man is set to be cryogenically frozen for a year only for it to be forgotten and to wake up 500 years in the future to find himself to be the smartest man in the universe. If they would have sent a baseball player instead, it may have been Jon Lieber and his 103 ERA+ and .514 winning percentage.
While he was always a solid contributor, he never really stood out (in either a good or bad way). Even the one year perceived to be good (2001 where he finished fourth in Cy Young Voting) had more to do with him stumbling into 20 wins than having one good season (109 ERA+, 5.7 SO/9).
A lot of his similar players are still active (Lohse, Arroyo, Haren) but none of them are in the hall of fame discussion.
Verdict: No
Paul Lo Duca:
Didn't start playing regularly until 29 when he had his best season .320/.374/.543. From there, he put up average production and somehow was an all-star on four separate occasions. On the similarity scores list, Yuniesky Betancourt ranks #10.
Verdict: No
Esteban Loaiza
A slightly worse version of Jon Lieber, a relatively average pitcher who managed to stick around for a good while. The only differences are in extremes. Loaiza had quite a few seasons where he was not very good. On the other side, he had one season (2003) where he was legitimately very good and came very close to being one of the more random Cy Young award winners in recent history. They also have the connecting link of having Kyle Lohse being the most similar pitcher to them career wise.
Verdict: No
Greg Maddux:
What is there to say that hasn't already been said about Greg Maddux. He was heads and shoulders the most dominant pitcher from about 1992-1998. While the record books were being re-written on the offensive side, all Maddux was doing was getting players out left and right.
By common sense measures, he should be voted in on all 100% of ballots but it will be more like 97%-98% since there are some hard core voters out there that think the vote should never be unanimous. On a side note, his brother Mike while not a hall of fame pitcher turned out to be one of the greatest pitching coaches of this generation.
By all measures available on Baseball-Reference, Maddux should have no problem getting into the hall of fame. Out of his 10 most similar pitchers, nine of them are already in the Hall of Fame and the 10th one should be (Clemens) at some point in the near future.
Verdict: Yes
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