Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Safe or Short Leash: Corey Hart

Bench Player 2:

Corey Hart:


Pros:

He had some pretty good seasons with the Brewers with 4 seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or above, five seasons with at least 20 home runs and two seasons with at least 20 home runs.

Cons:

Note that the above paragraph was written in past tense. I drafted him in the later rounds last year thinking he would be a value play after missing the first month due to injuries. Little did I know that would turn into an entire season.

Which brings me to the next point of how will Hart bounce back from missing a full year worth of action and will his bat still have the power it had in the past. Even if there is still something left in his bat, how will the numbers translate going from a hitter friendly Miller Park to a pitcher friendly Safeco Field. So yeah, Hart may go back to his old form but there are definitely some obstacles in the way.

Comparison Analysis:

His most similar player through age 30 is Bobby Higginson. In his age 31 season he played 119 games hitting .282/.345/.417 with 10 HRs & 12 Steals. After that season he played for a few more seasons but that was the last time he had an OPS+ above 100.

For Hart's season, I think he'll put up slightly lower numbers in the Average/OBP departments .270/.330 ish but he retains at least some power (around 15 homers). While not terrible numbers, you can and should be able to get a lot more out of the first base position. For that, Corey Hart should be on the short leash.