Friday, February 7, 2014

Safe or Short Leash: David Wright

Starting Third Baseman: 

David Wright:

Pros:

Wright is one of the better and more established Third Basemen in baseball. He can always be counted on for consistent production and he's been hitting very well every since starting his career in 2004 (lowest OPS+ he's had in a season is 115) and he's had four seasons with a WAR above 5.


Cons:

He's missed decent chunks of time because of injuries in two out of the last three seasons (102 games in 2011 & 112 games in 2013). Playing for what is likely to be a mediocre Mets team, RBI opportunities may be limited. There's a chance injury issues could increase over time as he gets older (currently he's 31).

Comparative Analysis:

His closest comparable through age 30 is Scott Rolen. While Rolen was injury prone himself, his age 31 season was relatively healthy (142 games) and very productive .887 OPS along with 22 HRs and a .296 batting average. With a full season of health I think Wright would do slightly better than those numbers.

Verdict:

David Wright's spot for fantasy baseball is definitely very safe. However, the last few years of his health track record I probably need to keep an eye on the third baseman scene just in case. Yeah, I could get flexible and move Brett Lawrie or Edwin Encarnacion over to third if I had to but that could always open up other issues to solve. Looking at the quality of available third basemen, if  I need to consult this watch list for a replacement, the team could be in trouble.

Third Basemen Added to the Watch List:

Matt Dominguez
Trevor Plouffe
Jose Iglesias
Conor Gillaspie