Friday, February 21, 2014

Safe or Short Leash: Eric Hosmer

Starting Utility 2:

Eric Hosmer:


Pros:

 Hosmer is still young (24) and appears to have all the potential in the world and could possibly be a huge star. He has three seasons under his belt and put up decent production (118 OPS+) in two of those seasons. While not the perfect fantasy player, Hosmer will likely put up decent batting average (assuming he doesn't regress to 2012 form) numbers and throw in some double-digit stolen base numbers which are especially valuable from the first base position.

As the Royals appear to be on the upward trend, there's a chance that could help Hosmer get some more RBI opportunities and thus more RBIs for fantasy players.

Cons:

While he's shown flashes of his potential, he hasn't quite performed up to what you would expect from somebody that was drafted third overall. While he does have some power, the 15-20 HR range he has displayed so far is slightly less than what you'd expect from an upper tier first baseman.


Comparative Analysis: 

His closest comparison through age 23 is Vic Saier. Before writing this up, I had never heard of Vic Saier. I guess this means I have to brush up on my 1910s baseball history. While Saier's career came to an early end (he played his last game at 28). His age 24 season was productive for the era .264/.350/.445 11 HRs.

If Hosmer were to put up those numbers this year, he would be one of the bigger fantasy baseball busts. However, in 1915 11 home runs was considered a lot of power and the above slash line was good for an OPS+ of 140.

The thing I glean from this is while I don't think he'll put up top five production and impact the outcome of fantasy leagues I do think that he will continue to improve and get his home run total up to the 20-25 home run range.

All numbers found on baseball-reference.com