Reading today's Closing Time, article on Yahoo! One of the reader comments is as follows:
"Hellickson is picking up the pace, is he a safe add for mixed leagues? "
Which raises the question of
How much stock can we take in Hellickson's recent performance?
The short answer, not very much. Granted his surface stats indicate a possible mini-breakout season (2.03 ERA) but even during these good times there are some red flags to consider before putting him in your lineup.
His FIP/xFIP numbers paint a less rosy picture as these totals are 3.88 & 4.35 respectively. Combining these numbers (putting 1/2 emphasis on FIP, 1/3 on xFIP and the rest on his current ERA) indicates that his projected ERA going forward is 3.73 which is actually slightly higher than his career total of 3.63.
While he has improved his walk rate so far (2.91 career to 2.03 this season), he still is not someone you can rely on for strikeouts (6.75 per 9 this year).
In looking at the pitch type available at FanGraphs, he hasn't really changed his repertoire much and his fastball has actually lost about 0.4 mph.
While Hellickson's return is a major source of relief to a Rays team that has managed to get themselves within six games of the final wild card spot, there isn't much to indicate that he's any better or worse than he has been previously. Out of 108 pitchers I have ranked, he comes in at 74th in the rankings, indicating that he's not the best option available on the waiver wire.
Another question in the comment threads regards value comparision between specific catchers
"So does a stake in the A’s offense include adding Vogt as a starting C
in a 12 team league? I have been flipping between Rosario (currently),
Montero, Vogt, Flowers, etc. They are all available, as well as McCann.
Who’s the preferred option ROS? "
Which raises the question of?
How do these catchers compare to each other value-wise?
My take on this is as follows:
Tyler Flowers is by far the worst option of the bunch. His already mediocre batting average is being held up by a high BABIP and I have him ranked 294th amongst batters.
Stephen Vogt is projected out to hit .280 and is capable of double figure home run power. His overall ranking is at 187 and is hurt by being in and out of the line-up (one of the factors taken into consideration is plate appearances this year).
Miguel Montero is having a nice bounce-back year and is projected to hit .275 with 20 homers over a full season, he is ranked 92nd right now, not a bad option but not as good as McCann and Rosario
Wilin Rosario is second on this list of five but not by much (literally by one spot). His numbers don't look that great on the surface but he's had lower than usual BABIP and HR/FB rate totals. I'm still high on his plus-power and think he could get his batting average which has always been his value downfall up to about .270
Brian McCann (assuming he can stay healthy) is the best option. While his surface stats seem like he's having an underwhelming start for the Yankees, he's being held back by a .249 BABIP and lower than usual HR/FB rate totals.
Bottom line, Flowers should be avoided at all costs. Vogt carries some value in daily leagues but not standard leagues and Montero, Rosario & McCann (to varying extents) are all solid options.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Researching Comments: Felix Hernandez 2014 versus his 2010 Cy Young Season
Trying something new today, i'm looking at the comments section of this article from Yahoo! to answer some of the reader comments to see how accurate they are and to have some writing material.
The first comment from this article up for analysis is:
"Appropos of nothing in this fine column, Felix Hernandez is having a way better year than even the year he won the Cy Young. It's just nuts.
His worst start of this season -earned run-wise - was a start in which he 1) got the win, 2) went 6 2/3, 3) walked nobody, and 4) struck out 7.
Jeez. The King indeed. "
Which raises the question of:
Is Felix Hernandez 2014 season better than his 2010 Cy Young Winning Season ?
To look at this, I went to his player page to compare the two areas.
Section 1: Projected ERA:
For projected ERA, I look at ERA, FIP and xFIP and use the following formula (ERA+xFIP+xFIP+FIP+FIP+FIP) with the intent of not completely disregard the ERA on the surface but giving stronger consideration to fielding independent pitching
2010: ERA 2.27, FIP 3.04, xFIP 3.14 gives us a projected ERA of 2.94
2014: ERA 1.95, FIP 2.07, xFIP 2.38 gives us a projected ERA of 2.15
Winner: 2014
Section 2: Ground Balls
2010: 53.9%
2014: 56.1%
Winner: 2014
Section 3: K/BB Ratio
2010: 3.31
2014: 6.06
Winner: 2014
In this case, the reader comment was very correct in that Felix Hernandez has managed to exceed the high expectations surrounding him based off of seasons such as 2010 where he came away with the Cy Young Award. One interesting thing to note is that he has changed around his pitch repertoire this year in that he is throwing less fastballs this year (44% versus 57% for career) and he has began to rely on his change up more (30% this year versus 17% for his career).
If this is a sign of things to come over the next few years, this is very good news for Mariners fans and very bad news for opposing hitters but also very good news for baseball.
Accuracy of Commentary: Home Run
Information referenced in this article found on fangraphs.com
The first comment from this article up for analysis is:
"Appropos of nothing in this fine column, Felix Hernandez is having a way better year than even the year he won the Cy Young. It's just nuts.
His worst start of this season -earned run-wise - was a start in which he 1) got the win, 2) went 6 2/3, 3) walked nobody, and 4) struck out 7.
Jeez. The King indeed. "
Which raises the question of:
Is Felix Hernandez 2014 season better than his 2010 Cy Young Winning Season ?
To look at this, I went to his player page to compare the two areas.
Section 1: Projected ERA:
For projected ERA, I look at ERA, FIP and xFIP and use the following formula (ERA+xFIP+xFIP+FIP+FIP+FIP) with the intent of not completely disregard the ERA on the surface but giving stronger consideration to fielding independent pitching
2010: ERA 2.27, FIP 3.04, xFIP 3.14 gives us a projected ERA of 2.94
2014: ERA 1.95, FIP 2.07, xFIP 2.38 gives us a projected ERA of 2.15
Winner: 2014
Section 2: Ground Balls
2010: 53.9%
2014: 56.1%
Winner: 2014
Section 3: K/BB Ratio
2010: 3.31
2014: 6.06
Winner: 2014
In this case, the reader comment was very correct in that Felix Hernandez has managed to exceed the high expectations surrounding him based off of seasons such as 2010 where he came away with the Cy Young Award. One interesting thing to note is that he has changed around his pitch repertoire this year in that he is throwing less fastballs this year (44% versus 57% for career) and he has began to rely on his change up more (30% this year versus 17% for his career).
If this is a sign of things to come over the next few years, this is very good news for Mariners fans and very bad news for opposing hitters but also very good news for baseball.
Accuracy of Commentary: Home Run
Information referenced in this article found on fangraphs.com
Friday, August 8, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pick Ups: 8/8/14
Dustin Ackley:
Currently owned in 26% of Yahoo! leagues but is seeing his fantasy value go up after homering for the second consecutive game.
Ackley came to the majors with high expectations and the question to ask is whether this is the time that he cashes in on them? While he has been an improved player and his recent surge has helped him move up my rankings (205th to 177th), the only thing that would make him worth consideration is the second base eligibility.
His BABIP is right in line with his career totals, so his .257 batting average is in line with what I think he'll do but i'm not sold on his power (able to break into double digits but not much beyond that) and only the occasional stolen base. He could be the key to the Mariners getting back to the playoffs for first time since 2001 but this is far from guarantee.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. If your gonna get your first crack at major league pitching, it doesn't hurt to have that come against the Rockies at Coors Field. While people have been rushing to pick him up over the last few days, the only thing that appears to be able to slow this down is the diminishing amount of leagues that he is available in. The only question is how many home runs does he hit down the stretch and how many fantasy leagues does he help determine the outcome of ?
Brandon McCarthy:
Currently owned in 32% of leagues. The question that is raised with him is which performance from this year is closer to his ability. His struggles earlier this year in Arizona or the resurgence he has enjoyed since being traded to the Yankees?
The answer, as always is somewhere between those two extremes. His ERA does project out to 3.49 which isn't bad since he's been pitching in a couple hitter-friendly ballparks for his home games this year. Still, he's worth picking up to see how long his hot streak lasts and for any road starts where he actually gets to pitch in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Currently, I have him ranked 48th (out of 107 starters). He's an option worth considering, but not necessarily a no-brainer.
Kolten Wong:
Currently owned in 37% of leagues. Even with recent strong play and the accompanying uptick in ownership, I still think he is under-rated and probably contribute a lot towards either preventing or making it very difficult for the Brewers to make the playoffs (boo).
Putting personal feelings aside, his value is very strong for someone that is available in 63% of leagues. I have him ranked as a top-100 player (85), and project him out to be a .280 hitter. Alongside that, I think he'd hit about 18 homers over a full season (not bad for second base) and might even provide 40 steals. He's definitely a substantial upgrade for any fantasy roster.
Chris Carter:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. Chris Carter's performance is the equivalent of high stakes gambling in that he is just as likely to have a multi-homer game as he is to sabotage your batting average and strike out four times in a game.
Last night, he struck gold and hit a couple of home runs. This home run outburst from last night has helped his stock as he has moved from 100th to 71st in the batter rankings. Considering the Astros get their next series at home against a couple of sub-standard pitching staffs (Rangers, Twins), he is definitely worth picking up in both standard & daily formats.
All numbers/information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo! Fantasy
Currently owned in 26% of Yahoo! leagues but is seeing his fantasy value go up after homering for the second consecutive game.
Ackley came to the majors with high expectations and the question to ask is whether this is the time that he cashes in on them? While he has been an improved player and his recent surge has helped him move up my rankings (205th to 177th), the only thing that would make him worth consideration is the second base eligibility.
His BABIP is right in line with his career totals, so his .257 batting average is in line with what I think he'll do but i'm not sold on his power (able to break into double digits but not much beyond that) and only the occasional stolen base. He could be the key to the Mariners getting back to the playoffs for first time since 2001 but this is far from guarantee.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. If your gonna get your first crack at major league pitching, it doesn't hurt to have that come against the Rockies at Coors Field. While people have been rushing to pick him up over the last few days, the only thing that appears to be able to slow this down is the diminishing amount of leagues that he is available in. The only question is how many home runs does he hit down the stretch and how many fantasy leagues does he help determine the outcome of ?
Brandon McCarthy:
Currently owned in 32% of leagues. The question that is raised with him is which performance from this year is closer to his ability. His struggles earlier this year in Arizona or the resurgence he has enjoyed since being traded to the Yankees?
The answer, as always is somewhere between those two extremes. His ERA does project out to 3.49 which isn't bad since he's been pitching in a couple hitter-friendly ballparks for his home games this year. Still, he's worth picking up to see how long his hot streak lasts and for any road starts where he actually gets to pitch in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Currently, I have him ranked 48th (out of 107 starters). He's an option worth considering, but not necessarily a no-brainer.
Kolten Wong:
Currently owned in 37% of leagues. Even with recent strong play and the accompanying uptick in ownership, I still think he is under-rated and probably contribute a lot towards either preventing or making it very difficult for the Brewers to make the playoffs (boo).
Putting personal feelings aside, his value is very strong for someone that is available in 63% of leagues. I have him ranked as a top-100 player (85), and project him out to be a .280 hitter. Alongside that, I think he'd hit about 18 homers over a full season (not bad for second base) and might even provide 40 steals. He's definitely a substantial upgrade for any fantasy roster.
Chris Carter:
Currently owned in 57% of leagues. Chris Carter's performance is the equivalent of high stakes gambling in that he is just as likely to have a multi-homer game as he is to sabotage your batting average and strike out four times in a game.
Last night, he struck gold and hit a couple of home runs. This home run outburst from last night has helped his stock as he has moved from 100th to 71st in the batter rankings. Considering the Astros get their next series at home against a couple of sub-standard pitching staffs (Rangers, Twins), he is definitely worth picking up in both standard & daily formats.
All numbers/information referenced found on either fangraphs.com or Yahoo! Fantasy
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pickups: 8/7
Vance Worley
Currently owned in 20% of leagues. His last game was Saturday's game against Arizona where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Even though the Pirates are competing with the Brewers for a playoff spot, I really hope Arizona loses the rest of their games based on how they conduct themselves and the fact that they seek retribution for things that were non-intentional.
In the short-term, he could be a good daily play since his next start is against the Padres. In the long-term, i'm not sold despite his 2.43 ERA this year, quite frankly he doesn't strike out enough batters (5.17 per 9 innings) and there's not much in his career or deeper numbers from this season to motivate me to pick him up.
Mike Leake:
Currently owned in 45% of leagues. His value has gone up based off his last start against the Marlins where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. While this helped his perceived value, it didn't help him move up the rankings I have. Similar to Worley where he may be a good play in daily leagues when he makes his next start against the Marlins but i'm not sure whether he's worth adding to standard leagues. With that being said, if forced to pick between the two, Mike Leake would be the safer addition.
Chris Coghlan:
One of those players that has gotten playing time by playing for a non-contending team and combined with some good luck has managed to take advantage of this situation. The Cubs may have embarrassed themselves against the Rockies yesterday, but Coghlan can't be blamed for that as he got three hits.
In the long term, i'm not convinced this is sustainable. He has been aided by a high BABIP and I think he's closer to a .270 hitter than a .300 hitter. Also, he doesn't project out to hit for much power in the long-term. A useful addition to a major league roster, I just don't see much value on the Fantasy side.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He's another play that has been one of the trendy pick ups on a regular basis as he went 1 for 4 and drove in 2 runs in a loss to Tampa Bay and a rare bad start from Sonny Gray.
While the context of his recent hot streak his helped his perceived value, he actually dropped one spot in my rankings from 176th to 177th. He could be a low-level source of power but I think he's closer to a .240 hitter than his current .260 average.
Chase Anderson:
Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He has had two consecutive starts where he only gave up one run each (against the Reds & Pirates, thank you). In a season where the Diamondbacks have disappointed both ethically and on the field, he has been one of their few bright spots.
Depending on what angle the analysis point is, he's either decently under-valued or playing over his head. While his ERA (3.19) is much stronger than where I have him projected (4.03), he is still a decent source of strikeouts and for how bad his team has been, he has managed to stumble his way into some wins.
While he his pitching a bit over his head and I expect some fall off, I still think he's at least worth a look. I have him ranked 52nd out of 107 starting pitchers which all in all isn't bad for someone available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues.
Chris Tillman:
Currently owned in 46% of leagues. His value has gone up due to an extended stretch where he's given up 3 earned runs or less in each start since June 10. Between reviewing him on Wei-Yin Chen, it makes me less convinced that Baltimore has a strong chance of holding on in the AL East.
While he has a healthy looking win-loss record (8-5) his ERA projects out to 4.27. Bottom line, even on the waiver wire you can do better, and my estimate is that he runs into some struggles sooner rather than later.
All numbers, information referenced found on Yahoo! Fantasy and fangraphs.com
Currently owned in 20% of leagues. His last game was Saturday's game against Arizona where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Even though the Pirates are competing with the Brewers for a playoff spot, I really hope Arizona loses the rest of their games based on how they conduct themselves and the fact that they seek retribution for things that were non-intentional.
In the short-term, he could be a good daily play since his next start is against the Padres. In the long-term, i'm not sold despite his 2.43 ERA this year, quite frankly he doesn't strike out enough batters (5.17 per 9 innings) and there's not much in his career or deeper numbers from this season to motivate me to pick him up.
Mike Leake:
Currently owned in 45% of leagues. His value has gone up based off his last start against the Marlins where he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. While this helped his perceived value, it didn't help him move up the rankings I have. Similar to Worley where he may be a good play in daily leagues when he makes his next start against the Marlins but i'm not sure whether he's worth adding to standard leagues. With that being said, if forced to pick between the two, Mike Leake would be the safer addition.
Chris Coghlan:
One of those players that has gotten playing time by playing for a non-contending team and combined with some good luck has managed to take advantage of this situation. The Cubs may have embarrassed themselves against the Rockies yesterday, but Coghlan can't be blamed for that as he got three hits.
In the long term, i'm not convinced this is sustainable. He has been aided by a high BABIP and I think he's closer to a .270 hitter than a .300 hitter. Also, he doesn't project out to hit for much power in the long-term. A useful addition to a major league roster, I just don't see much value on the Fantasy side.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. He's another play that has been one of the trendy pick ups on a regular basis as he went 1 for 4 and drove in 2 runs in a loss to Tampa Bay and a rare bad start from Sonny Gray.
While the context of his recent hot streak his helped his perceived value, he actually dropped one spot in my rankings from 176th to 177th. He could be a low-level source of power but I think he's closer to a .240 hitter than his current .260 average.
Chase Anderson:
Currently owned in 11% of leagues. He has had two consecutive starts where he only gave up one run each (against the Reds & Pirates, thank you). In a season where the Diamondbacks have disappointed both ethically and on the field, he has been one of their few bright spots.
Depending on what angle the analysis point is, he's either decently under-valued or playing over his head. While his ERA (3.19) is much stronger than where I have him projected (4.03), he is still a decent source of strikeouts and for how bad his team has been, he has managed to stumble his way into some wins.
While he his pitching a bit over his head and I expect some fall off, I still think he's at least worth a look. I have him ranked 52nd out of 107 starting pitchers which all in all isn't bad for someone available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues.
Chris Tillman:
Currently owned in 46% of leagues. His value has gone up due to an extended stretch where he's given up 3 earned runs or less in each start since June 10. Between reviewing him on Wei-Yin Chen, it makes me less convinced that Baltimore has a strong chance of holding on in the AL East.
While he has a healthy looking win-loss record (8-5) his ERA projects out to 4.27. Bottom line, even on the waiver wire you can do better, and my estimate is that he runs into some struggles sooner rather than later.
All numbers, information referenced found on Yahoo! Fantasy and fangraphs.com
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pickups: 8/6/14
Some players getting picked up today and whether they are worth it:
Colin McHugh:
Currently owned in 25% of leagues. He's coming off a strong start against Toronto where he gave up one run over 6 1/3 innings and his next start comes against the Philadelphia.
Earlier in the season, I was skeptical that McHugh could maintain his strong early season performance citing some initial struggles in limited action over the last couple seasons.
As the season has gone by, it appears that I was very wrong on this assessment. While he has had some good luck (.256 BABIP), his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate that he is a solid starter. Even though playing on the Astros negatively impacts what he can do on the win column, he makes up for it by being able to rack up strikeouts (10.14 per 9 innings this year).
While outside the scope of fantasy, it appears that he's mixed things up a bit this year. He has added 1.1 miles per hour on his fastball but appears to be throwing this less this year and throwing his slider more often.
Either way, it appears that McHugh's deflated win-loss record has turned him into a secret sneaky good value as I have him ranked 25th out of all starting pitchers. It may have taken me forever to come around, but I was definitely wrong about McHugh earlier this season.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. Overall, this hasn't been a great season for Reddick but he has a five game hitting streak.
While he still has 20 homer per season power, i'm not sure how much value he has for standard leagues (for hitters I have him ranked 176th) but he currently is more valuable in daily leagues as long as he keeps his hit streak up.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 49% of leagues. His debut seems to be a pretty close microcosm of what to expect this year (he hit the go ahead home run in the 12th inning last night) but also did not get any hits foretelling a poor batting average for 2014. At the very least, he's worth running in daily leagues as the Cubs are playing at Coors Field
Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 4% of leagues (although his 8 shut out innings against the Nationals last time up have convinced at least 3,000 Yahoo users to pick hi up today). Quite frankly, that's probably 4% too many. While he is getting regular starts (due to playing on a poor team) and has a 3.87 ERA that looks okay-ish on the surface, his FIP, xFIP numbers are both north of 4.5 and he is in 105th in my rankings. For context, I have 106 starting pitchers listed at the moment.
Wei-Yin Chen is number five on the Transaction Trends list. Since he starts today, there has been no change to my outlook on him versus yesterday.
Roenis Elias:
Currently owned in 16% of leagues based off a decent three start stretch (where he only gave up one earned run each and struck out at least six batters). His last start against Baltimore gave him a minor boost in the rankings (going from 52nd to 49th). For standard leagues, he is a possible back-end option depending on pitching availability on match ups but he's not quite in the drop everything and pick him up category.
Denard Span:
Span got a base hit last night which was enough to move his ownership rate up to 55%. While his spot actually dropped from 106th to 107th, he's still worth taking a closer look at.
Colin McHugh:
Currently owned in 25% of leagues. He's coming off a strong start against Toronto where he gave up one run over 6 1/3 innings and his next start comes against the Philadelphia.
Earlier in the season, I was skeptical that McHugh could maintain his strong early season performance citing some initial struggles in limited action over the last couple seasons.
As the season has gone by, it appears that I was very wrong on this assessment. While he has had some good luck (.256 BABIP), his FIP, xFIP numbers indicate that he is a solid starter. Even though playing on the Astros negatively impacts what he can do on the win column, he makes up for it by being able to rack up strikeouts (10.14 per 9 innings this year).
While outside the scope of fantasy, it appears that he's mixed things up a bit this year. He has added 1.1 miles per hour on his fastball but appears to be throwing this less this year and throwing his slider more often.
Either way, it appears that McHugh's deflated win-loss record has turned him into a secret sneaky good value as I have him ranked 25th out of all starting pitchers. It may have taken me forever to come around, but I was definitely wrong about McHugh earlier this season.
Josh Reddick:
Currently owned in 38% of leagues. Overall, this hasn't been a great season for Reddick but he has a five game hitting streak.
While he still has 20 homer per season power, i'm not sure how much value he has for standard leagues (for hitters I have him ranked 176th) but he currently is more valuable in daily leagues as long as he keeps his hit streak up.
Javier Baez:
Currently owned in 49% of leagues. His debut seems to be a pretty close microcosm of what to expect this year (he hit the go ahead home run in the 12th inning last night) but also did not get any hits foretelling a poor batting average for 2014. At the very least, he's worth running in daily leagues as the Cubs are playing at Coors Field
Roberto Hernandez:
Currently owned in 4% of leagues (although his 8 shut out innings against the Nationals last time up have convinced at least 3,000 Yahoo users to pick hi up today). Quite frankly, that's probably 4% too many. While he is getting regular starts (due to playing on a poor team) and has a 3.87 ERA that looks okay-ish on the surface, his FIP, xFIP numbers are both north of 4.5 and he is in 105th in my rankings. For context, I have 106 starting pitchers listed at the moment.
Wei-Yin Chen is number five on the Transaction Trends list. Since he starts today, there has been no change to my outlook on him versus yesterday.
Roenis Elias:
Currently owned in 16% of leagues based off a decent three start stretch (where he only gave up one earned run each and struck out at least six batters). His last start against Baltimore gave him a minor boost in the rankings (going from 52nd to 49th). For standard leagues, he is a possible back-end option depending on pitching availability on match ups but he's not quite in the drop everything and pick him up category.
Denard Span:
Span got a base hit last night which was enough to move his ownership rate up to 55%. While his spot actually dropped from 106th to 107th, he's still worth taking a closer look at.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Trendy Waiver Wire Pick Ups: 8/5/14
Some thoughts on today's trendy waiver-wire pick ups:
Javier Baez:
The long-anticipated major league debut for Javier Baez is here. He is 21, full of promise and seems destined to be a star in the long-term. The question remains whether he is destined to be a useful player in the short term.
For season-long players, it depends on how much of a hit your willing to take on batting average. I think at least initially, it's going to be around the .220 range so far (he hit .260 in Triple-A and i'm adjusting 15% decrease based on increase in competition. With that being said, I think he has the ability to immediately contribute on the home run/stolen base side of things. Either way, this appears to be another step the Cubs are taking between the terrible team they are today and the potential contending team they may be in a couple of years.
For daily players, I have two words for you: Coors Field. Despite the drawback in batting average, I have him ranked 59th (out of 322 batters).
Either way, he's worth the pick up regardless of format.
Tyler Flowers:
His value has increased in context (11% ownership) due to a big game against the Rangers. In the long-term, I think this is an over-reaction to one good game. While I think he could hit 20 homers in a season if given the chance to play long-term, even the below average numbers he has this year (90 wRC+) may be above his actual ability as he has benefited from a .380 BABIP. It appears this could be his peak and frankly his peak is not that high. Once the BABIP wears off, he goes from a .252 hitter to flirting with the Mendoza Line.
Wei-Yin Chen:
His last couple starts have come against the Mariners and he has taken advantage by giving up 1 run over 15 1/3 inning. Even with this recent performance, I have him ranked 49th in the Starting Pitcher category. That and his value appears tied primarily to a shiny 12-3 record as he's had the good fortune of being on a first place Baltimore team. Still, i'm not quite sold on him as his next start will be against a stronger (though short-handed Toronto) team and most of the other numbers available indicate that he's a very average pitcher.
Danny Santana:
He just (somehow) keeps hitting, his latest value boost can be seen in his 5-hit outburst against the White Sox on Sunday. While still (not even close) to being sold on him, the rankings i'm doing he's at least moved up to 157 putting him squarely in the middle of the pack.
He could be decent source of home runs and stolen bases, but still projects out to being a .243 hitter if/when his BABIP fueled hot streak runs its course (similar to what's happening with Brock Holt).
Denard Span:
Span keeps on hitting on a steady base (3 straight multi-hit games/4 in the last 5) and in the midst of an 8-game hitting streak. As he keeps on hitting, he still continues to be one of the more picked up players as he's up to 52%. As long as home runs are not what your specifically targeted, he continues to be a solid option
Javier Baez:
The long-anticipated major league debut for Javier Baez is here. He is 21, full of promise and seems destined to be a star in the long-term. The question remains whether he is destined to be a useful player in the short term.
For season-long players, it depends on how much of a hit your willing to take on batting average. I think at least initially, it's going to be around the .220 range so far (he hit .260 in Triple-A and i'm adjusting 15% decrease based on increase in competition. With that being said, I think he has the ability to immediately contribute on the home run/stolen base side of things. Either way, this appears to be another step the Cubs are taking between the terrible team they are today and the potential contending team they may be in a couple of years.
For daily players, I have two words for you: Coors Field. Despite the drawback in batting average, I have him ranked 59th (out of 322 batters).
Either way, he's worth the pick up regardless of format.
Tyler Flowers:
His value has increased in context (11% ownership) due to a big game against the Rangers. In the long-term, I think this is an over-reaction to one good game. While I think he could hit 20 homers in a season if given the chance to play long-term, even the below average numbers he has this year (90 wRC+) may be above his actual ability as he has benefited from a .380 BABIP. It appears this could be his peak and frankly his peak is not that high. Once the BABIP wears off, he goes from a .252 hitter to flirting with the Mendoza Line.
Wei-Yin Chen:
His last couple starts have come against the Mariners and he has taken advantage by giving up 1 run over 15 1/3 inning. Even with this recent performance, I have him ranked 49th in the Starting Pitcher category. That and his value appears tied primarily to a shiny 12-3 record as he's had the good fortune of being on a first place Baltimore team. Still, i'm not quite sold on him as his next start will be against a stronger (though short-handed Toronto) team and most of the other numbers available indicate that he's a very average pitcher.
Danny Santana:
He just (somehow) keeps hitting, his latest value boost can be seen in his 5-hit outburst against the White Sox on Sunday. While still (not even close) to being sold on him, the rankings i'm doing he's at least moved up to 157 putting him squarely in the middle of the pack.
He could be decent source of home runs and stolen bases, but still projects out to being a .243 hitter if/when his BABIP fueled hot streak runs its course (similar to what's happening with Brock Holt).
Denard Span:
Span keeps on hitting on a steady base (3 straight multi-hit games/4 in the last 5) and in the midst of an 8-game hitting streak. As he keeps on hitting, he still continues to be one of the more picked up players as he's up to 52%. As long as home runs are not what your specifically targeted, he continues to be a solid option
Friday, August 1, 2014
Starting Pitcher Rankings:
Since I have been focusing all of my attention on offense and it seems like i'm rotating around discussing pretty much the same players, I decided to flip things around and rank the starting pitchers. For this listing, i'm ranking anyone who's pitched at least 100 innings so far this year. My top 10 is as follows:
1-Clayton Kershaw
* Masahiro Tanaka would be ranked second if he wasn't on the disabled list
2-Stephen Strasburg
3-Yu Darvish
4-Chris Sale
5-David Price
6-Max Scherzer
7-Zack Greinke
8-Corey Kluber
9-Ervin Santana
10-Madison Bumgarner
Currently there are 103 pitchers on this list, the bottom ten of these are as follows;
10-Edinson Volquez
9-Kyle Kendrick
8-Jeremy Guthrie
7-Hector Noesi
6-Chris Young
5-Scott Feldman
4-Kyle Gibson
3-Kevin Correia
2-Roberto Hernandez
1-Jared Cosart
Now onto some trendy waiver-wire pitching pick ups:
Vance Worley
Rank: 69
Ownership Rate: 14%
With the addition of Worley to this list, there are now 104 starting pitchers in the rankings with Worley being number 69. Even coming off an excellent start in San Francisco and getting to face a gutted Diamondbacks team over the weekend, i'm still not really sold on Worley.
While his ERA is at 2.54, the projection i've come up with places him at 3.51. Not terrible but nowhere near as good as the surface numbers. One red flag out there is that he hasn't struck out many batters (5.44 per 9 innings) and he can't rely on a .266 BABIP forever. His projected rankings are 38th for ERA, 26th for Wins, 87th for strikeouts and 24th for walks.
Basically, the main thing driving down the ranking is the strikeouts (lack of).With the Pirates being in the thick of the pennant race, he should stumble into some wins and shouldn't hurt too bad on the WHIP. Still, with a less than inspiring track record, i'm not ready to buy on him.
Justin Masterson
Rank: 85
Ownership Rate: 44%
His value has been up as a speculation play as he got recently traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. While he has been better than his 5+ ERA has indicated, he hasn't been that much better (4.31 estimate). Still with the change in leagues, it's possible that this could be the change that is needed for him to improve performance. The only plus aspect I see with him is that his strikeouts still project to be strong (ranked 28th) but this is over-ridden by the fact that he ranks dead last in walks.
1-Clayton Kershaw
* Masahiro Tanaka would be ranked second if he wasn't on the disabled list
2-Stephen Strasburg
3-Yu Darvish
4-Chris Sale
5-David Price
6-Max Scherzer
7-Zack Greinke
8-Corey Kluber
9-Ervin Santana
10-Madison Bumgarner
Currently there are 103 pitchers on this list, the bottom ten of these are as follows;
10-Edinson Volquez
9-Kyle Kendrick
8-Jeremy Guthrie
7-Hector Noesi
6-Chris Young
5-Scott Feldman
4-Kyle Gibson
3-Kevin Correia
2-Roberto Hernandez
1-Jared Cosart
Now onto some trendy waiver-wire pitching pick ups:
Vance Worley
Rank: 69
Ownership Rate: 14%
With the addition of Worley to this list, there are now 104 starting pitchers in the rankings with Worley being number 69. Even coming off an excellent start in San Francisco and getting to face a gutted Diamondbacks team over the weekend, i'm still not really sold on Worley.
While his ERA is at 2.54, the projection i've come up with places him at 3.51. Not terrible but nowhere near as good as the surface numbers. One red flag out there is that he hasn't struck out many batters (5.44 per 9 innings) and he can't rely on a .266 BABIP forever. His projected rankings are 38th for ERA, 26th for Wins, 87th for strikeouts and 24th for walks.
Basically, the main thing driving down the ranking is the strikeouts (lack of).With the Pirates being in the thick of the pennant race, he should stumble into some wins and shouldn't hurt too bad on the WHIP. Still, with a less than inspiring track record, i'm not ready to buy on him.
Justin Masterson
Rank: 85
Ownership Rate: 44%
His value has been up as a speculation play as he got recently traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. While he has been better than his 5+ ERA has indicated, he hasn't been that much better (4.31 estimate). Still with the change in leagues, it's possible that this could be the change that is needed for him to improve performance. The only plus aspect I see with him is that his strikeouts still project to be strong (ranked 28th) but this is over-ridden by the fact that he ranks dead last in walks.
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