Wednesday, April 30, 2014

National League MVP Tournament: Who Is The NL MVP So Far

Yesterday, I went through the AL to determine who the MVP is through the end of April, today is the national league's turn. It pits the top 10 players by WAR as measured through baseball-reference.com through yesterday (4/29/14) and is a best of five based on:

All information, stats, numbers referenced below found on baseball-reference.com

Whose team is in better position to make the post season

Who has the higher ERA+/OPS+

What is the difference in WAR between them and the next best pitcher or hitter (based on player's position) on their team

Who has the highest defensive WAR (if two pitchers, nobody gets a point if a batter is pitted against a pitcher point goes to the batter

To account for media bias, which player has the highest profile or which of the two players is disliked the least.

PLAY IN ROUND:

(7) Chase Utley vs. (10) Andrew McCutchen

Neither player's team is great but the Phillies are in better post-season position (1-0 Utley)

Utley has the higher OPS+, currently holding a 172-162 advantage (2-0 Utley)

McCutchen has a 0.8 WAR higher than his next best team mate compared to 0.7 for Utley. (2-1) Utley

Utley has a higher defensive WAR, with a 0.2 to 0.1 advantage

Winner: Chase Utley


(8) Jose Fernandez vs. (9) Giancarlo Stanton

Both players are on the same team which neutralizes this point.

Fernandez holds the OPS/ERA+ edge as he has a 231 to 149 edge. (1-0 Fernandez)

Fernandez has a WAR 0.7 higher than the next best Marlins pitcher while Stanton's edge over the next best Marlins hitter is 0.4 (2-0 Fernandez)

Stanton gets a free point in the pitcher versus hitter battle (2-1) Fernandez

However, Stanton gets the media bias point and the tie-breaker due to being an every day position player and the fact that even people who don't care about the Marlins actually know that he's a big deal

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton

QUARTERFINALS:

(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (9) Giancarlo Stanton

The Rockies are 1/2 game behind the Giants and in the top wild card spot, giving Tulowitzkit the edge here (1-0 Tulowitzki).

Tulowitzki holds the OPS+ edge 223-149. (2-0 Tulowitzki).

Tulowitzki has a 1.0 WAR advantage compared to the next best Rockies hitter (not bad considering Charlie Blackmon is 4th in the NL in WAR).

Winner: Troy Tulowitzki

(4) Charlie Blackmon vs. (5) Yovani Gallardo

The Brewers are the best team in baseball right now (yaaay) and have a 6 1/2 game lead over the Cardinals (1-0 Gallardo).

Gallardo has the OPS+/ERA+ edge at 188-174. (2-0 Gallardo)

Gallardo has a 0.4 WAR advantage over K-Rod while Blackmon is second on his own team to Tulowitzki.

Winner: Yovani Gallardo

(3) Johnny Cueto vs. (6) Jeff Samardzija

The Reds are only 7 1/2 games out of first compared to 11 for the Cubs. (1-0 Cueto)

Cueto has the edge in ERA+ 312-191. (2-0 Cueto)

Cueto has a 1.3 WAR edge over Alfredo Simon compared to 0.2.

Winner: Johnny Cueto

(2) Adam Wainwright vs. (7) Chase Utley

Both teams are right at .500 but the Phillies trail their division by fewer games (1-0 Utley).

Wainwright has the OPS+/ERA+ edge at 290-172. (1-1 Tied)

Wainwright has the larger WAR advantage (1.5 to 0.7) 2-1 Wainwright

Utley gets the free batter point 2-2 Tied.

The media bias one is pretty close. Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals which makes him gritty, gutty and always supported by the "best" fans in baseball. Utley plays on the east coast and is one of the favorite players of Mac from It's Always Sunny. When in doubt, give the media bias point to the player who plays their home games in the Eastern Time Zone.

Winner: Chase Utley

SEMI-FINALS:

(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (5) Yovani Gallardo

The Brewers are currently the best team in baseball (1-0 Gallardo).

Tulowitzki holds the ERA+/OPS+ edge at 223-188 (1-1 Tied).

Tulowitzki holds the team mate WAR edge at 1.0 to 0.4 (2-1 Tulowitzki)

Tulowitzki gets the free batter point.

Winner: Troy Tulowitzki

(3) Johnny Cueto vs. (7) Chase Utley

The Phillies are off to a slightly better start than the Reds (1-0 Utley).

Cueto holds a 312-172 ERA+/OPS+ edge (1-1 Tied).

Cueto holds the team mate WAR edge at 1.3 to 0.7 (2-1 Cueto)

Utley gets the free batter point (2-2 Tied)

In the tie-breaker Utley advances on the media bias point again as the Phillies have a higher media profile than the Reds.

Winner: Chase Utley

FINALS:

(1) Troy Tulowitzki vs. (7) Chase Utley

The Rockies are currently in better position for the playoffs (1-0 Tulowitzki).

Tulowitzki holds the OPS+ edge at 223-188 (2-0 Tulowitzki).

Tulowitzki holds the WAR team mate edge at 1.0 to 0.7

NL MVP TO DATE: Troy Tulowitzki