Monday, April 28, 2014

Yay or Nay: Collin McHugh, Kyle Seager:

Collin McHugh:

Even on teams going nowhere, there is always someone on those teams of value even it is the Astros. In limited duty in 2012 & 2013, he was definitely not that value play as he got shelled in brief stints with the Mets and Rockies.

He got picked up by the Astros in the off-season and in his first two starts (against Oakland & Seattle) he has been absolutely dominant. Since he was never a marquee prospect (18th round draft pick) and never made it onto any top prospect lists (despite decent minor league performance) and didn't even make the Astros roster out of spring training, I have a healthy does of skepticism regarding the ability for him to hold up this performance all year.

One thing that he has going for him is an FIP (1.39) that has indicated that his first two starts are very strong. Still, there are some red flags such as a .161 BABIP that's bound to go up (along with eventually his ERA). Even after two strong starts, i'm not exactly sold on McHugh and i'm going to have to say Nay.

Kyle Seager:

Seager has been on an absolute tear over the last week as he's hit all five of his home runs since the 23rd and had two multi-homer games. It is sort of surprising that he was this far under the radar that it took until late-April for owners to rush to pick him up.

Seager has hit 20+ homers over the last couple years and showed above average production overall in both seasons (108 OPS+/118 OPS+ in 2012 & 2013 respectively). He's likely never to be a monster in the batting average side of things but his power and the ability to draw walks seems to be constantly improving over the last few weeks.

Speaking of batting average, currently it sits at .228, below his career average of .258 since he has gotten fairly unlucky (.241 BABIP), the batting average should start moving towards the .250-.260 range by the end of the season. Since he is also 26, all signs point to him continuing to progress and work towards his peak. If things go right, he could be able to hit between 25-30 homers and also throw in around 10 steals.

Looking from a long-term perspective, his most similar player through age 25 was Sal Bando. While he wasn't a hall of famer, he had a very strong career hitting 242 homers and ending with a career OPS+ of 119 and finished in the top 10 in the AL in WAR on seven occasions. With both the short and long term considered, Seager is a good play in fantasy and I say Yay.