Friday, April 18, 2014

Yay or Nay: Chris Colabello, Wily Peralta

Chris Colabello:

As of this writing, Colabello owned in 44% of Yahoo leagues and has the most recent Adds according to their  Transaction Trends data. He had a very strong series against the Blue Jays and is off to a very strong start in general which has been a contributing factor to the Twins being initially in the mix for the AL Central.

Coming into 2014, Colabello was more of an unknown/feel good story as he spent several years in the independent leagues before getting a chance with the Twins and doing very well against minor league pitching.

He played in 55 games last year but was still under the radar as he had a sub-mendoza level batting average (.194) despite showing some decent pop in his bat (7 homers in 181 plate appearances).

While I think the power is legitimate enough for double figure home runs (even though he's shown more doubles power than home run power in 2014) with Colabello, there's absolutely no way this performance is holding up for more than a few weeks as his .463 BABIP is likely to regress sooner rather than later which means he aint' hitting .357 this year, he ain't ending the season leading the league in RBIs and he ain't one of those players that's going to break out to the point that they will single-handedly swing the outcome of fantasy leagues.

If he is available in your league, he may be worth picking to see if he can keep this hot streak going for a few weeks but in the long term there are better options and if you can sell high on him while his numbers still look good, even better. Overall, I would say Nay.

Wily Peralta:

Currently only owned in 21% of Yahoo Leagues. In 2013 he had his ups and downs getting as he had a very rough first half in 2013 but bounced back to have a strong second half.

The one risk with Peralta is that he seems to be prone to the big inning but at the eyeball level, he has shown lots of improvement over the first few starts. One thing i'd like to give kudos to baseball-reference for is showing pitcher's FIP next to their ERA for player pages.

While Peralta has passed the eyeball, and traditional fantasy statistic test (so far), he has yet to pass the FIP test as he has had a 4.58 FIP in his first few starts (this is actually worse than his 4.30 FIP from last year), he's also benefited from a .226 BABIP which is bound to go up and contribute to the inevitable regression.

The reality is that Peralta is bound for regression at some point, the main question is when will it happen and how much he will regress by. I think he's safe to do good for at least a couple starts as the next two Brewers opponents after this weekend are the Padres & Cubs. With Peralta, I think he's worth adding to your roster if you need starting pitching but i'd decide whether to have him in your starting line up on a start by start basis.

Through age 24, his most similar player is Kris Benson. Benson did good for himself in his age 25 season (121 ERA+), but got stuck with a 10-12 record playing for a bad Pirates team. However, he missed the next season being injured and while he did pitch until 2010, his age 25 season turned out to be his best.

Thus far, Peralta appears to be pretty durable. He does have the talent to stick around for a long time and be a consistently above average pitcher, the one question that remains unanswered is if he has the consistency to be a strong performer over the course of an entire season versus a couple months at a time.

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