Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Yay or Nay: Alfredo Simon, Jenrry Mejia

Alfredo Simon:

The second time in the last week that a long time-reliever turned starter (Jesse Chavez being the other) is a player that fantasy owners are adding left and right. Coming into this year, he did have a larger sample of starting games (16 for the 2011) Orioles. Simon's career has been trending in the right direction the last couple years as he had strong seasons coming out of the bullpen in 2012 & 2013.

The Reds may be off to a sluggish start (8-11 so far) but Simon can't be blamed for that as he has a 0.86 era/0.810 WHIP over his first three starts. Like with any fast start, there is going to be some obvious regression with the question being will the regression land him somewhere where he is still useful for fantasy owners.

His FIP over the first few starts is at 3.14 suggesting that he could be in the midst of a breakout season. The one thing that is a bit concerning is that his BABIP is uber low (.197) which will likely rear its ugly head and correct itself when least expected probably when he faces a much tougher line up (he's faced the Cubs, Mets & Rays) thus far. While I think people are over-reacting due to a hot three start stretch that is not to suggest he has no value. The strong FIP suggests that he can maintain a decent (though not star performance) as the season goes on and that he could be of use, for Simon, it's a Yay.

Jenrry Mejia:

The Mets are surprisingly not terrible right now (10-9) and early strong performance from Mejia (so far) has gone a long way towards this measure. Unlike Alfredo Simon, i'm a little more skeptical on Mejia maintaining a performance strong enough to justify fantasy value over the entire season.

The FIP is creeping up towards mid to back end of rotation level (3.84) and he's giving up way too many walks for comfort (5.6 per 9 this year, 4.0 per 9 in 105 career innings). For what its worth, he has pitched reasonably well in two starts against contending teams (Braves & Cardinals) but at the end of the day, the possible control issues are too much to overlook, for Mejia it's a nay.

All numbers found on baseball-reference.com