Monday, November 11, 2013

Do They Have a Chance? Estes, Foulke, Gagne & Glavine

It's been a while since i've gotten a chance to review who has a chance. Now is a good time as any to geo down the list.

Shawn Estes:

The biggest head scratcher so far. Based on ERA+, he had one average season and two above average seasons. In his best season (1997), he led the league in walks. The only other thing he ever led the league in is wild pitches. When you have more former Brewers in your top 10 similars (Doug Davis & Rick Helling) than hall of famers, that says more than enough.

Verdict: Nope

Keith Foulke:

A much better player (like thats saying anything). He had a nice 6 year stretch as a closer and even won a world series with the 04 Red Sox. Still, he fell way short of greatness. The standards for  relievers is much higher for the Hall and Foulke likely falls short just like players with a similar profile (Jeff Shaw, Rod Beck) have. Based on active players with similar profiles, Heath Bell & JJ Putz can also be ruled out unless they somehow dominate for the next decade.

Verdict: No

Eric Gagne:

Gagne was VERY, VERY, VERY good for three years (2002-2004). However, he was plagued by injuries an ineffectiveness the rest of his career. This is the second player (Durham) being the first who ended his career with the 2008 Brewers. By then he was not very effective and lost the closer job very early in the season. Not surprisingly none of the similar players are in the hall. If we learn anything from this list is that we can rule out Jonathan Broxton & Fernando Rodney as future hall candidates.

Verdict: No

Tom Glavine:

Now were finally getting to someone with a legitimate chance. Glavine was a very good pitcher  on a lot of 1990s Atlanta Braves teams that were playoff regulars. He did win a couple of Cy Young awards and finished in the top 5 a few other times. Due to a combination of things in his control (very good pitcher for a very long time) and things he was a beneficiary of (playing on teams that won a lot of ballgames), he was able to get to 305 wins for whatever the win is worth.

While 300 wins is a nice shiny number, it doesn't necessarily make things a slam dunk (albeit strong case). Four of his top 10 similars (Early Wynn, Tom Seaver, Red Ruffing & Mickey Welch) are in Cooperstown while others are struggling to get in or are on the outside looking in (Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris)

Out of the other B-R measurements (Black Ink, Grey Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards & JAWS), he's better than the average HOFer in three of them.

At first I thought this was a slam dunk HOF case before doing this review. After taking a closer look, I still think he has good case to be in Cooperstown but it isn't a no doubter. Still, I think having 300+ wins in an offense friendly era resonates with enough voters and he'll likely get voted in.

Verdict: Yes