Last Sunday, I took the top 32 from the AP rankings and matched them all together in a mock playoff to see how I think things would roll out if College Football had a 32 team tournament (the human rankings used over the computer to account for the arbitrariness of human element that would be in place to determine rankings). Alabama over Oregon was last week's winner, lets see who takes it this week.
As it was for last week, the AP rankings are used as our starting point
1-Alabama
32-Ball State
16-Fresno State
17-Wisconsin
8-Clemson
25-Georgia
9-Missouri
24-Miami
5-Stanford
28-Nebraska
12-Oklahoma State
21-Arizona State
4-Baylor
29-Duke
13-UCLA
20-Northern Illinois
6-Oregon
27-Minnesota
11-South Carolina
22-Oklahoma
3-Ohio State
30-USC
14-Michigan State
19-Louisville
7-Auburn
26-Ole Miss
10- Texas A & M
23- Texas
15-UCF
18-LSU
2-Florida State
31-Washington
The way I think this would play out is as follows:
Alabama over Ball State in a game thats over before it starts
Fresno State over Wisconsin in a close one (Fresno State always seems to play Wisconsin tough)
Clemson over Georgia in a rematch of this years opening game
Missouri over a free falling Miami team
Stanford over Nebraska
Arizona State upsets an Oklahoma State team that i wouldn't be sold on for this tournament
Baylor over Duke. In football, Duke being in would be a nice story but nice stories don't equal wins.
Northern Illinois over UCLA. I feel that UCLA is over-rated and Northern Illinois would have something to prove
Oregon over Minnesota. Still think Oregon would make a nice run despite Thursday's loss
South Carolina over Oklahoma. Not sold on either team but someone has to win
Ohio State over USC. USC has been better since firing Kiffin but they have a long way to go
Michigan State over Louisville. Strong defense from MSU plus Louisville being used to lower competition swings this game
Auburn over Ole Miss, as the Auburn redemption tour continues.
Texas A&M over Texas in a game with absolutely zero defense
LSU over UCF. UCF is a good team they just got an unlucky matchup.
Florida State over Washington. This has 63-0 written all over it.
Now on to the Sweet 16:
Alabama over Fresno State. Fresno State is a nice team, Alabama is a machine
Missouri over Clemson. This seems like a place where Clemson would come up short
Stanford over Arizona State. ASU puts up a fight, they just don't have the defense.
Baylor over Northern Illinois. Baylor offense trumps MAC-tion 99 times out of 100.
Oregon over South Carolina. Oregon would struggle a bit in SEC but i'm not sold on South Carolina
Ohio State over Michigan State. One of the better round of 16 games but OSU keeps rolling.
Texas A &M over Auburn. First team to 50 wins.
Florida State over LSU. Setting up for epic round of 8 QB duel.
To the Round of Eight:
Alabama over Missouri. The tide keeps rolling.
Stanford over Baylor. I wasn't quite sold on Stanford but the way they numbed Oregon's offense made me rethink things.
Oregon over Ohio State. Oregon took a step back but with Ohio State's schedule its hard to see how serious of a player they would be in a 32 team tourney
Florida State over Texas A & M. Florida State is the more complete team and they show signs of being able to play defense.
Alabama over Stanford. Very close game here but Alabama keeps finding a way
Florida State over Oregon. Setting up for another 1-2 matchup.
Like last week, I think a playoff would produce a 1-2 match up and that the polls/computers are getting it right on accident. One thing i'm going to deviate from is I think Florida State would have a legit chance to dethrone Alabama and prevent a three peat from happening.
Florida State 42
Alabama 35
No comments:
Post a Comment